Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Nice one, Kipper. This will come good I have no doubt. The June update will need to be out of the way, followed by the H1 results release in August and we can then meaningfully turn higher. Just needs patience and that's repeating what most of us have been saying for a while. AH will turn this around, IMO.
Good old Fearful is now in pumper mode and putting out goods bits of information. Every little helps I suppose, but he plays it by his rules which is not for me.
Have a good Easter break, chappies. We'll come good in a few months' time.
The forecast didn't certainly help the traders who got in hoping yesterday/past few days hoping for a quick payday today and hence the doomsday prognostications from them here today. FWIW, I think MS kitchen-sinked the forecast and set a very low bar for 2024. I don't think that he/the board minds a few months of sideways trading on the back of this forecast as I think that will help with the buybacks once they commence, and they will soon IMO. The share count projections for 2024 and 2025 point in that direction.
Me, I'm a glass half full chappie. It was heartening to see volume kick in after 3:15 PM or so, backed up by the SP rising. I'm not saying that this is it and we're at the bottom, but if it hangs around these levels till post 5th April, I'll add more with the new ISA allowance for the next tax year.
The UK markets are so shallow that a few light-weight PIs selling can affect the stock price - as we're seeing now with SFOR. I can't really complain about that though as MS chose to list on the LSE and the absolute shallowness of the markets, worsened since Brexit, is there to see in plain sight.
Revenues forecast to be down slightly (noting limited visibility at this time) with EBITDA % higher than for 2023 and more buybacks (indirectly communicated) in the share count projections page of today's report - and all of this results in a 15% mark-down. Only on the LSE could this happen. SFOR will do everyone a massive favour by moving its listing to the NYSE and we'd probably end up getting a 2x current valuation just on that count.
Time for buy-backs to commence soon enough!!!
We need more of Riflemans, Jcj, Plasterer and many such to keep going. The market and stock price always climbs a wall of worry - if only investing was as simple as using a few rearview metrics such as LFY revenue misses. Bought some at the open at an average of 42p. Missed the drop down into the 30s unfortunately.
That is spot on Poker and Molatov - having had the time to digest what they've put out there, which is cautious and yet stable, we'll have to think that most, if not all the bad news is already in the SP. I'm adding more if we do open lower.
Again, the results/forecasts are similar to those I have seen for a non-related sector company that has been in the sector recession doldrums since H2 2022 - they were forecasting improvments as the macro turns, not dissimilar to what S4 is saying. That SP (SYNT) has rallied more than 50% since their results annoucement a few weeks ago, and could we see that with a massively beaten down stock like S4? Don't rule it out!!! The bad news is more or less already in the SP, IMO.
Adjusted earnings came in at 5.7p versus forecasts under 5p and that's a positive. I think they're keeping expectations very tempered to set S4 up for beats and upward revenue/profitability projections as the year rolls on. Interest rate cuts are coming and that will dispel the gloom in both the Ad and the Consulting business sectors. A bit more patience I suppose.
A neutral report considering big revenue drawdowns in Q3 and Q4 last year. Q1 weakness likely to persist, but spend could come back in H2 with interest rate cuts and comparables looking better. Dividends pushed back to H1 results annoucement (?) and buybacks to be decided on soon - maybe they don't want the SP to run away ahead of next buy backs commencing.
Net debt forecast to be down to the £150m - £180m range. Revenues projected to be slightly down with the tech division underperforming and we've seen that commentary a lot in wider consulting businesses. I can't call what the SP may down with these pieces of news, but any real recovery will now be H2 led.
Added my final chunk today, now sitting on circa half of 1MSN's holdings and is the largest stock in my portfolio.
All the best to the longs and the key for us is the ad market outlook - I'm optimistic on that count. I'm betting on a positive stock market reaction/price jump tomorrow. :-)
"Last Friday 22/3/24 S4 Capital share price broke above the 50 day moving average for the first time since 12 July 2023." - Ta, NigeCo. The stars seem to be aligning for the big reveal on Wednesday.
@BAZ - I know from reading these posts that you've been quite positive about the mad man and THG. I'm on board with THG being undervalued, but the SP will be range bound until the mad hatter is forced out. Do we really see that happening? I doubt it, but it's good that you've pis5ed him off and got blocked - I take that as a good sign that there many sensible shareholders outside the rampant brown-nosers that reside on this board - you know who you are (many making money off those free stock options doled to you acolyte lot)!!!
We'll top out on acquisition based shares issuance at circa 695m in 2024. Any buybacks this year will reduce that number, starting with the recently completed 6m shares buyback. I can't see any meaningful acquisitions being made with the SP and the ad market being where they are currently.
I shouldn't have said the 1p dividend was a given. However, MS has consistently stated that the 1p dividend is a goal for them with the FY 23 results announcement - this was a recently as the H1 results announcement in September when S4 still had 8500 monks and we know that there were circa 800 job cuts in Q3 and Q4 of last year - boosting FCF for this year.
There's a better than 50% chance, IMO, that there will be a token 1p dividend (not so token at these SP levels though) announced.
I'll add some more in the next 2 days if the SP stays in the low 40s.
What do we now know?
1. There were large scale job reduction in Q4 - down from circa 8200 at the end of Q3 to 7700 at the YE - that sets up S4 well for 2024 in terms of positive EBITDA/cash flow, even if revenues are flat to slightly down over 2023.
2. We've noted bid interest late last week and if the SP doesn't move higher from here after the results on Wednesday, we can expect additional formal bids emerge with interest rates easing from June onwards?
3. A token 1p dividend is on the cards with the results annoucement on Wednesday - aided by better FCF prognosis in 2024.
4. And not to forget - additional buyback annoucements should be forthcoming too.
Any greenshots in the ad market will be much welcomed by the market. 2 more days to go!!!
I'll take any bit of positivity when the results are announced this Wednesday, the 27th. Personally, I'd very happy if the SP rallies over £1 this year and hopefully this time I'll learn to control my urge to 'take profits on a decent chunk of my investment too quickly' - this has let me down multiple times in the past. Two more days to add to positions - I'll take my chances.