The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Nothing surprises me about the LSE. It's very easy to take a SP down on no news and with very low volume, and very difficult to move the SP up unless its backed by large volumes. However, I'm not complaining about the head we're dealt with - it's just where we are listed. Until MS decides to move the listing to the NYSE or NASDAQ, we'll left holding on to that element of undervaluation.
"I will make this promise. If I get the opportunity to make some money and get out of here I will mention it on this board, wish everyone luck and never de-ramp. Only time I would ever be on here is if I'm invested"
@Trisor - that's really good and that's always my approach. If I sell, I do it and I don't go around posting negative and FUD posts soon after I've sold. NoClue is a different kettle of fish though and he's very predictable and this has been proven many times over than I can count. I can promise you this much - he'll be back in a few days deramping CPI as he thinks it will go lower if he de-ramps on here. It's a bit like AimLess's positional posts.
I'd be massively surprised if he doesn't deramp, but I don't expect to be.
That's right there, Terry. He's making the right noises, finally for us long suffering Shareholders, but it'll all boil down to how he can execute that strategy. Based on some of the messages on this board from ex-Capita employees, new cuts have begun and we'll no doubt hear more about this in the June update.
I'm under no illusion that if AH can't pull this off, then CPI will probably head towards administration in the coming years and as it stands, the market is already saying that we're half-way there - unjustifiably so, IMO.
I don't think he even needs to be a messiah. All we ever needed was a CEO who acknowledged how bloated the cost structure was and that CPI would never generate the required FCF if no changes were made. Woke JL kept going for as long as he did having a Kumbaya with everyone other shareholders. A diligent CEO like AH only understood and acknowledged the unsustainability of such an approach and is now embarking to cut costs big time. I, at least, am not privy to what may be coming in the strategic review in a couple of months' time, but showing cost cuts and a pathway to clear FCF from 2025 onwards would be key I'd imagine. Unlike JL, he did make a couple of market purchases soon after he could and given it's make or break time for CPI, I'd like to think he's focused on delivering this sustained cash returns message to the market. Maybe a new CFO annoucement beckons in the update?
Nothing that NoClue does should ever be surprise. If he's now sold (again) after pumping this for a few weeks now, why is that ever a surprise? Anyways, moving past his pointless shenanigans, we're stuck in a range and I took the opportunity to add more today. My holdings here is the highest its ever been, obviously not to value wise. It's been a painful few months, but with AH at the end, I'm confident he can pull off what the hapless JL couldn't.
I'll add more if it hangs around these levels OR goes down!!!
Except that the circa 15% to 20% downmove from the recent highs is on no real volume. That tells me all you need to know about why S4 should delist from the LSE and move to NYSE, or at least seek a primary listing in the US.
That is an old price target and possibly the research note too. Barclays were at 270p last year when the price was higher, but all that sellside ever do is just chase price targets up or down as the SP moves on the market.
https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/s4-capital/broker-views/
Chaps - this is the perennial shallowness of the LSE that I keep on waffling about. ;-) As soon as any decent buying dries up, even temporarily, its so easy to manipulate this down on miniscule volume. C'est la vie. Dow and S&P are down big today and it's good that the US market is taking a bit of a breather - it's been on a unrelenting upmove since November last year, and when it turns back up in the coming days/weeks, do will we.
The stock market is a reliable mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient - certainly when the sector has turned!!!
At least Lagarde has the proverbial balls and would have no qualms cut ahead of the US. Bailey is frigging useless and is a full-blown slave to the US, and to see him and his BOE cohort always running a rear-view mirror economic policy. The US economy is fundamentally different to the UK/Europe, and BOE would do well to focus on reviving the domestic economy and cut rates ASAP. However, like the mad hatter running THG, I'm not sure Bailey has the balls to do it. A UK rate cut would certainly help THG!!
"I suppose they way they look at it if it’s good enough for BT To have there head office in Johannesburg ,which I believe is South Africa. Then it’s good enough for capita.
Make sure you lot don’t leave any rope or razor blades about as you all have so much doom"
@Darkblue - Agree. To lighten the gloom and doom, I'm shorting BT. It's an easy way to make money as it slides a long way down from here along with its dividend when that is formally announced in May. I'm chomping at the bits when I think about the money I'll make from that short and from the money here from my ever building long position.
Cape town - the best place in South Africa. A great low cost base for Capita as they offshore away to lower cost English speaking countries outside the UK. Brexit has dealt a hammer blow to the UK economy, confounding the fantasies of the brexiteers and growth has all but vanished. All that CPI can do in this shiity economic environment is to cut costs and boost margins. If that means hiring more employees in SA and expanding your office footprint to a larger base, then why not? That's what will make us longs money. Along with shorting BT, may I add!!!
Indeed, thanks to 1msn for all the informative articles he finds and posts on here. Much appreciated.
If there's a small sign that SFOR's revenue decline is turning around, we'll see a good jump in the SP and Citi's target could just be achieved in 12 months' time. And the market is right now front-running that possibility. The large number of high-volume days is a testament to the accumulation that's happening in the stock.
Good luck holders.
Let's see if THG's stock price can do what SFOR's did on the day after the release of earnings - jump up handsomely after being knocked down the day before. If THG doesn't then we know who to thank for and it's that mad numpty at the top!!!
And let's not forget that we're listed on a shiite stock exchange where shorting based on revenue/EBITDA misses is far more easily rewarded than signs of a sector turnaround that's slowly but surely kicking in and this should've pushed the stock up a lot more already. If SFOR were to be listed on the NYSE I have zero doubt that our current market would be double what it is now on the LSE.
1msn - We're still not growing on an organic basis at an overall corporate level, whereas Publicis is - this is why they've had a 45% y-0-y increase in the stock price and we're down big from last year. You're referring to growth at the whopper and large client level, but SFOR's revenue isn't just all that, is it? I'm optimistic that it will change this year, even though MS has said revenue for 2025 will be flat to marginally down - he's low-balling expectations and is aiming to beat those numbers and push the SP, likely in H2. It's a good sign that Publicis is saying that tech clients' spending is coming back and that's THE most important metric for SFOR.
I'd think that Citi's sellside clients were privy to that research note prior to that being available on CNBC/general public and were frontrunning their purchases in the past few days. That is very typical of the sellside in the US, eh?
" one potential route out could be for CPI to merge with another business, perhaps one with expertise selling to private sector. I did think the comment someone made about the over reliance on Gov contracting i.e. calling for diversification would be a wise move, possibly a merger could be a good method to achieve that."
Just won't happen and isn't what an investment in CPI should be based on, IMO. This just isn't realistic when your market cap is circa £200m and when private sector outsourcing and the consulting services market in the UK/Europe is in the dumps!!! The upside to CPI's profitability/FCF forecasts could come from increased corporate spend in H2 24 and 2025 - that's realistic, but isn't a given unless the UK economy recovers from herein on. Another possibility as suggested by Peel Hunt is that CPI is an acquisition target at these rock-bottom price levels.