Member Info for GoCPI

"24p to 16p is not far away". I don't disagree with this. It's the shambolic, depthless market we're listed on that can easily make these kind of valuations a reality. All you need is a few numpties/fear-mongers (lse2000 and the likes) creating fear on these message boards, 'forcing' a few to sell and causing another leg downwards.

Let's not forget that we're sitting at all-time lows at less than 2x adjusted EBITDA and no matter what the future is that MS and team are laying down on LinkedIn and other comms channels, sticking to a primary listing here is a key thing that MS should focus on getting away from. And not doing that is entirely a self-inflicted wound.

Go for it, DB...Book it. ROFL. The trading geniuses and know-it-alls on here - oh my!!!

AimLess - how is bombing of the 3 Nuclear sites that's been telegraphed for days, a 'Balck Swan' event? Do you even know what a Black Swan event signifies - time for you to do some research on what it really is rather than putting a catch phrase on repeat on a message board!!!

"I'm hopefull that from Q4 of this year, going in to a stronger year in 2026. Plus all past M&A now paid for, Net Debt continues to fall. Let's hope that the patient S4 investor is rewarded in 2026, and beyond. My god we deserve it."

Hello Nige, Q4 YOY growth is a given, IMO, but my take is that we should get this rev growth going from Q3 onwards. 2026 comparables should be a whole lot easier to beat, however the market is stuck on the narrative that S4/broader agency model is dying a slow death - a la what a few on here would parrot from the bear thesis attack lines.

The tide will turn here, just as it has in the case of CPI (Capita) recently. At some point in the very near future, S4's valuation has got to be way too compelling to ignore for this shiite piece of a stock market (LSE) - GLA!!

This is a big reason why we're working towards the £250m cost cut target, and not to forgot the NIC increase that has probably forced CPI's hand in this regard.

Pointless takeover talk from the pumping and dumping crew (AimLess and Meekie) and some lap it up!!!

The investment case here is operational improvement, deleverage the balance sheet more, get more stable public sector revenues at better margins and if the valuation still doesn't improve then there's an opportunity for a larger competitor to consider CPI as a acquisition target.

I can see our resident pumper and dumper, AimLess, is at it in full force again after buying in this morning. ROFL...

It takes all I suppose!!!

"they should stick around when they get it wrong and 'own' it. When the SP was in the red earlier today they were all over here with their predictions of doom n gloom"

We know there is no chance they'll own this, Kipper. That is admitting they've lost the doom and gloom narrative that they built over months along with the aura that whatever they say/do is the only game in town - And that isn't good for their fragile egos!!!

Anyway, I'm sure that we've had enough discussing our resident numpties, LOL!!! When the tide turns, it turns.

Just to add - I believe this Public/Experience division diversion is what the market is starting to take notice today. It's looking under the hood and is seeing revenue growth for the largest division inside CPI, the prospect for further efficiencies (cost reductions via AI automation) and 'growth' with increased government spend. It's probably saying that the sub-division with the biggest drag on margins within Experience is facing large revenue declines and more cost cuts with better EBITDA for the remaining business in 2026.

For a change this market is being forward looking and I can only imagine that it likes what it sees!!!

This is for the numerically minded. We were at £688m Public and £513m Experience in H1 2024 (£1.2b total revs). We were already at 57%-43% for Public/Experience. If I extrapolate this year's numbers with an overall rev decrease as laid down in the update - At the end of H1 2025, we could be at £704m for Public, £443m for Experience. The revenue split should already at 62% - 38% this HY.

The next logical question is where the EBITDA numbers will stack up for these divisions. It was 67 and 52 respectively last year, but with the large scale layoffs/payouts in Experience, that could be quite a bit lower in that division this year. Public's EBITDA should be a fair bit higher though. Public is shoring up Capita now and we may yet thank all the increased government spend in 2025 and onwards!!! Horses for courses and CPI is a good horse to back. ;-)

"Gamblers only ever tell you about their winners! Looks like the tide went out and some got caught exposed....."

This is true, Kipper. I'd like to expand that to 'Traders and Gamblers'. Once in a while, events catch out these master traders/gamblers/kingpin analysts with their pants down.

Not to worry though - AimLess will be back in trading at higher levels in no time!! Oh for that day when she's out of her trading position and CPI jumps 20% + because the results/update beat expectations. LOL x 10!!!!

I love it when the market gives a few bi*tch slaps (borrowing this American phrase for good measure) to the know-it-alls. ROFL!!!

Glad to see the market looking past the near term noise on revenue declines in H1 and the incoming ramp up in Public contracts in H2. I suspect we'll end up with a slight revenue decline in 2025 (meaning higher for H2) on a like for like basis (continuing businesses) because of the hit from Experience, and it's actually good that the negative margin contact centre business is taking it on the chin with a > 20% revenue decline, making it a whole lot easier to cut costs there. 60-40 revenue split is where we're headed to for Public/Experience - from the circa 50-50% now.

Hard decisions are being made and fat is being cut - if JL and TW were still around, none of this would've happened. The £55m one-time cash costs are being overlooked by the market as it should!! Onwards CPI.

"May be wrong on this, but i thought £250m in savings was due to be complete end of June 2025. This rolling into end of year." "And FCF by end of year"

@Wed - a couple of comments from me. They'd originally guided to £150m savings by H1 and that's ramped up. £250m cost savings was for EOY and that stays. THey're laying off plenty of heads in the Experience division. I personally know a few in that division who were let go in March (in the FS vertical) - there just isn't traction in that sector for consulting services because of a poor economy. I won't be surprised to see CPI become a 60-40% Public/Private split in 2025, but with the £55m cash cost impact from these layoffs, the sustainable FCF is from closer to EOY and that hasn't changed, albeit I think it's likely from 2026 Q1 onwards.

@Jordimendes - you're spot on. THey're doing now what JL should've been doing in 2021/22, but better late than never. I don't worry about what happens today/tomorrow to the SP, but the reshaping of CPI away from Experience is in full swing and in light of growth in government spend, that is a good choice. Experience has been dead in the water since Brexit and all the glory that it has bestowed economically to the UK, but this is now time to pivot. And they are!!!

Cheers, Simpiles. That note confirms that share premium cancellation is a bit of a non-event from a certainty of dividend handout viewpoint - you had to do it from a balance sheet viewpoint to facilitate future payments. However, the key to commence payouts was reiterated to be sustainable FCF generation. 2026 H1 results is a likely scenario, unless we have a blockbuster H2 2025.

It's good that they've got this book-keeping activity out of the way though!!! Bodes well, IMO.

The Share Premium account is driven by excess of subscription price per share over nominal price per share. Say if the nominal face value is 15p and the share was offered at 70p, like it was done back in the 2018 rights issue. The 'excess' 55p rolls into the share premium account and that is classified as the premium paid by shareholders to the company to provide capital to drive the required 'growth' for the company.

As such this is treated as non-distributable reservers - it's a flipping English law nuance and AFAIK doesn't exist in serious markets like the US. So yes, dividends can't be paid from these 'reserves'. Ancient irrelevant flipping laws !!!

You don't even need to filter anyone, IMO. All you need is a little, not much, just a little discipline to not respond when you know its pointless. I even wonder how people can even invest without basic discipline in life, investing discipline not withstanding.

Don't need to respond to this - that's my musing of the day!!

"AimLess is a gambler who needs to get constant validation as to how good they are is and plenty on here provide that. They've always been this and that should never be a surprise!! ;-)"

Geez - try again. AimLess is a gambler who needs constant validation as to how good she is and plenty on here provide that. She's always been a gambler and that should never be a surprise to anyone on here!! ;-)

AimLess is a gambler who needs to get constant validation as to how good they are is and plenty on here provide that. They've always been this and that should never be a surprise!! ;-)

Trisor - don't get caught up and lost in idealogy. Bleating headlines like this without context is what makes you truly lost. Labour bad, Reform good - that's just being the opposite of what you're accusing Meekie of - a right wing idealogue. Context and nuance matters. The growth decline paradigm started when clueless brexiteers decided that cutting off the legs of our economy by imposing vast restrictions on trade with the EU in return for supposedly going back to a glorious past. Since then its just been constant scraping along the bottom. You only need to look at what's happening with our magnificient stock exchange since then - it's the place to be listed on for chronic undervaluation and getting taken out cheaply - that's what happens when a good number of market participants get out.

Don't get me wrong - I do think that Labour is also shooting itself in the foot through its huge tax raise and spend policy, but unless that spend is targeted and governments have never been good at that, and also backed by normalised trade relationships quickly, sustained growth will be hard to come by.

The possible upside for CPI is that this increased spend will help the Public side of our business - however, it's hard to quantify the growth potential until we're down to the end of 2025 I suspect. But for a sustained rise in the SP to anywhere close to Adam Goodman's hopeful price prognostications, we'll need the Experience division to come back from its declines since 2023.