Member Info for GoCPI

Thanks, Poker. No, I didn't see Springsteen's 'endorsement' video. He is pretty hard-hitting in that clip - wow.

I spotted a few mistakes in my last post -

"Income gains are now outstripping cost increases" - I meant outstripping price increases/gains.

"JP and his crew (all except one governor) didn't have their finger on the pulse" - I didn't quite mean finger on the pulse, it was more like 'Influencing an outcome'.

"Not good news for Trump´s picture that the US is a disaster .... the notion that he is a political Messiah here to raise Lazarus ( America) from the dead may have taken a knock lol"

Poker, I agree with the above assessment. If the US economy does pull this soft/no landing scenario off, then I'm convinced that S4 could be off to the races in 2025, along with the manufacturing economies in the US/Europe - they've been in complete doldrums in the past 18 to 24 months since the rate hikes kicked off. Trumpy's arguments of being the saviour fall flat in the face of these numbers and also to note that gasoline prices have gone nowhere over the past 18 months or so. Income gains are now outstripping cost increases - it's a net positive for the lot across the pond. In my humble opinion, Trump is toast next month, in spite of relentless immigrants eating dogs/cats fearmongering. That may appeal to his rabid base, but not the rest. I'll wager that the election won't be as close as the current polls are predicting.

@BrokenSmoke - I'm also very suspicious of these set of numbers a month before their election and I won't be surprised if the BLS staff have a finger on the pulse and release these numbers accordingly. However, even ignoring the released numbers, the unemployment trajectory is pretty decent at this time and that removes uncertainty from the rest of the US economy, albeit slowly as rates normalise, IMO. The conspiracy theorist in me ponders if JP and his crew (all except one governor) didn't have their finger on the pulse when they cut 50 bps last month - after all they'd rather have a Harris administration than a Trump administration, an Trumpy would've almost certainly fired JP and put Bowman in his place, soon after he was sworn. ;-)

Either way, all good for us for now. I just hope the 36p all-time low holds as we'll be looking at a great 2025 for S4.

Surprisingly strong NFP news from the US. That's now a 25 bps cut in November and not the 50 bps cut some parts of the market was expecting in November. Still a strong USD and a weak GBP in the works and that's good from a revenues viewpoint.

2025 is still the inflection year for S4 in my view. If I get lower prices from here, I'll gladly lap that up and aim to win big next year.

GLA...

"I wonder if that would suggest a bit of a FED panic ?? ... sense of leaving it all too late??"

Personally, I don't think that's the case, Poker. There are some headwinds in the job market and hence the Fed decided to go with a bigger 50bps cut in September (it could've been a political move too as it's likely that JP will be fired if Trumpie becomes the president), but yesterday's JOLTS data was a head-scratcher as it showed opening moving up. I think the US corporates are in wait and watch mode in the US, awaiting clarity on the elections. And the US economy is not falling off a cliff at all - inflation is moderating and hence makes it easier for the Fed to cut from a position of strength and the soft landing prognosis is still a very good bet, IMO.

in broad terms, i agree with pc that there are tailwinds for s4, but that's likely a 2025 story. rate cuts in the us will come into focus as we finish up the year and we'd likely see a further 75bps cut that should bolster corporate spend sentiment, particularly with us tech clients as 2025 rolls in, and coupled of course by clarity on who wins the white house. the dems are better from the large tech companies viewpoint as they won't be as 'anti' big tech as trump is likely to be - at least going by his rhetoric towards goog.

martin doesn't want to move s4's primary listing to the us, frankly i suspect he can't be bothered with all the hard work that a us listing entails (quarterly financials/forecasts), and we'll remain subject to the ease with which stock prices can be pulled down on the uk stock markets. i suspect this down move could continue until revenue forecasts turn on the back of a recovering tech sector spend or we win more non-tech clients like gm. a ****ty market compounds s4's ills, but martin is to be partly blamed for this malaise too (uk listing).

there's some anecdotal evidence that tech spending in general is slowly coming back now and could take hold in 2025, after a couple of rough years. i just don't know where the bottom is, but am happy to accumulate slowly as these or even lower levels should we get there.

it sounds like i now hold more in s4 than 1msn after he chickened out through his ' i won't see for under 200p prognostications--lol' - i didn't sell through the upswing as i was expecting a q3/q4 recovery which i now know won't materialise. however, i'm happy to wait this out through 2025 and expect to ultimately see very good returns for my holdings here!!

good luck chappies!! and win the longs will as we move past 2024.

"Sieg Heil Timemyfriend🫡" -

and then you have NoClue regurgitating Nazi platitudes!! Kindred spirits, eh?

And here comes the wisest of them all!!

ROFL..

"I agree and said similar a while ago that I honest believe him stepping aside could be a catalyst."

I squarely sit on the other side of the fence. MS should be around, and I don't honestly see him go anywhere just as the company's fortunes begin to turn - someone like him wouldn't want to leave when the company/stock is in the dumps. Once US rates come down a lot more and tech company discretionary spend opens back up, all will be forgotten and we'll be back in growth mode from H2 25. GM spend will sustainably kick in from H1 25 and that overall should reduce the tech sector revenue % below 40%, IMO. I can't predict near term price though - its easy to manipulate a stock price down in these illiquid markets.

@Jamie630 - that's precisely my outlook too. I do acknowledge it looks fairly dark at the moment, but the reality is that the rate cut cycle has only started in the US, with possibly another 75bps by the end of the year, and more in 2025. Couple that with a lowered cost base for S4 on the back of more job cuts in H2 in the tech services division and I suspect we'll be closer to 7000 headcount by the end of the year, that sets S4 up better for when tech spending in marketing comes back in 2025. As has been telegraphed, we'll probably end up with a circa 10% revenue drop overall in 2024 as there's no recovery in H2 tech sector marketing spend.

If I have to pick a few positives - revenue comparables in 2025 will be much better, cost base will be a lot lower, and even though at this time I'm only expecting revenue growth in H2 25, unless the US economy really takes off after the election is over and the tech sector loosens its wallet, EBITDA/cash flow should be a lot better. And if we do win a few clients outside the tech sector, that's a great outcome for S4.

This is still work in progress, IMO, and that's a key reason why we're down to 40p now. Near term, I don't know where we'll go. If lower, that's top-up time for me. If higher, all's well then. :-)

"I fear retest of all time lows very possible over the coming days specially if the market dips."

I don't disagree as I don;t know where near term support comes from. On the back of a relatively poor update last week, we're at the mercy of small shorts and traders who can easily take this down to new all-time lows from here. I can't see a point selling out at these levels, especially as rate cuts take hold from here, but a deeper market like the US would help.

If I have a gripe about Martin's approach tp realising value for S4, it's that I find it mind-numbing that he still hasnt listed it on the NYSE, eve if he wants to hold on to the UK listing. Its more work for him and Mary, but the rewards will be tangible.

Thanks, Alex. Great job hosting the webinar yesterday and getting around to, seemingly, all the posted questions.

They know what's good for them and what's incoming. A no brainer really!!!

Welcome to the low liquidity LSE where since Brexit things have only gone way, both for the stock market as well as the UK economy - downwards!!

We've had plenty of the flashy useless types for ages - never again please!!! Those numpties couldn't deliver, could they? Personally, I like AH's style.

"Remaining 60m of costs-where is it coming from? Organisational, Back office, End to end processes, management layers. There is no way back though. This has to get done"

Thanks for this, TRisor - much appreciated. This was my question and I had to duck out at the end as I had to jump on a call, but it's good to note that they're talking management layers cuts coming through as well. Maybe Simpiles' 'ask' that some of the fluff at the top be removed may be coming to fruition. Good to hear AH state that it needs to be done. £60m more cash flow to start to accrue between now and mid 2025.

Wowie!!! That contract win in the experience division where they exited the contract late year, and re-won recently (not a RNS sized contract) on the back of AI aided delivery AND offshore = more margin. THat's the way to go!!! This was something we didn't quite get out of earnings call last month. Good question there chaps!!

If you have questions about topics that matter to you, just ask. There should be nothing stopping you. I've put in 3 questions so far, maybe I'll think of more. ;-)

Lol..That ECB reference was for SFOR, and not for CPI. There's circa €300m Euro debt there - spot on, JG68. Please ignore.

That is exactly the right to do from a CPI viewpoint. Inflation sitting at 2% now and it's difficult times in the job market, and the fact that CPI is in the middle of cost reduction programme makes this a no-brainer. Way to go Pablo and Adolfo. And maybe why the SP is perky!!!

Hard decisions need to be taken to ensure that the cost base is contained before a revenue recovery kicks in. That's when the share price could be off to the races. I can't wait for 2025 to kick in, but we also have the donkeys at the BOE MPC who're still hell-bent on conducting backward looking monetary policy. If only those numpties can do their job properly, we could be off to the races.

On the flip side, the Eurozone economy is still in the dumps and I hope that the ECB cuts 50bps when they next meet at the end of October/early November. That'll save a decent packet on our interest costs.

New leak, IMO - If I was a betting chappie, I'd say we won a new contract OR signed an expanded scope renewal. With the large cost cuts in place at CPI, any such additional revenue generating contracts is brilliant. RNS Monday?