Member Info for GoCPI

"@Gocpi- shouldn’t you be addressing Savage as they🤭" Lol, TRisor. You're right that I should, but I'm trying my best to practice what I preach and not giving her the oxygen. It's pointless to make a case with someone who's supposedly so focused on the past years' P&L and balance sheet that they're ignoring the turnaround potential here with on the back of a recovering economy supported by rate cuts. THat's what we're looking at in 2025 and that's my base case. Of course, I'm no clairvoyant and I could be very wrong in which case we'll muddle along into 2026 with no growth, but the cost cuts will at least boost profitability/FCF and get the SP into the low 30s, IMO.

@Trisor - you do realise that you're not getting a balanced argument with Meekie? All she wants is a bit of oxygen to continue her 10p per post postings and there are plenty on here to provide that.

We know what needs to happen to sustainably turn this around - improving economy, driving growth in wins in the Experience sector = more FCF, pushed up by cost cuts. If you believe the economy will grow a lot more in 2025, then ignore the noise/waffle and focus on gains that would accrue in 2025, IMO. You'll hear plenty of barking in the interim, but ignoring that is blissful. I'd just focus on the investment case.

Meekie had made 70p today with her insightful 7 posts this morning. Every little helps I suppose.

Good old Meekie Gaslighter is in full flow today. I wonder how many pence in earnings she'd have made today - 10p a post and maybe 15 posts , a quid and a half of hard-earned money is nothing to be scoffed at!! ROFL..

"Very disappointing end to the day." I said this many moons ago, but why on earth would we expect a stock to go up on news that's well known and digested (AKA, the C1 sale which caused it to move up from 13 to 22p, and then the fall on H1 results.). This betrays a lack of understanding of how public markets work, IMO. We need new wins and more news on clear progress towards higher margins/FCF and that's when it will sustainably move higher.

Till then it's down to the traders to make money - holders time is 2025 or until a contract win news breaks...

Plus the £4.8 million dividend from C1 prior to closing. I know it's chump change, but that's a bit more cash on the balance sheet. ;-)

We're NOT no debt - there's a difference between us being net financial debt free vs no debt. We'll still have financial debt on the balance sheet for the next few years, but having more cash on the balance sheet than our financial debt is a great place to be. With the required investment in Capex + restructuring costs in H2, I suspect we'll end up with small net debt at the end of 2024, but 2025 will be the inflection year with more FCF accruing as cash costs drop off dramatically and should (when) we get revenue growth next year on the back of an increasing economy, that's when the real fireworks will be.

Great rewards for the very patient.

After all the bleeding fuss about the C1 completion date, it was pretty much a non-event, a damp squib might I add - doubters and gaslighters not withstanding!!

A bit of late afternoon comedy there from FearFul. ROFL..

Wall Street needs a theme to keep the bull going - it was the internet in the 90s, E-comm in the early 2000s, housing/banking in the run-up to the GFC, solar in the early 20s, and now GenAI in the past couple of years. I'm not yet sure if the GenAI bubble has burst, but the YOY comparables for NVDA gets harder for it to do anything headpopping in the next few quarters. The stock's now down 25% from the peak, but it's still up 10% from the lows in early August. If it breaks down below 90 bucks we could then confidently say that WS is saying that the growth in AI spend is tapering off. The first signs to watch out for is the capex spend from hyperscalers on AI data centre buildouts and for now they're trending OK to Nvidia's benefit.

S4 is in a different boat, IMO. As rates start coming down in a couple of weeks' time in the US (I'm hoping/praying for a 50 bps cut), the laggards of the past 2 to 3 years will come to the fore. And we have favourable revenue comparisons from Q3 2024 onwards. I've been adding the past few days and will continue to add on any further weakness. If there's large scale volatility in the US markets in the coming days, and September is statistically the worst month of the year for those markets, I won't be surprised if the stu*pidly shallow LSE take us further down and therein is the more adding opportunity for us. S4 all the way for me over any GenAI plays...

RWD - I needn't add more to what you wrote. The shallowness of this shiite stock market on a price move downwards is mind-boggling, but then we all sound like broken records. Copper and Oil being taken down probably as the market anticipates a rough September and growth scare, but that's very good news from an inflation viewpoint.

If only we were to move our primary lising to the NYSE!!!

On September 19th and beyond?? We should get a rally in the buildup to the results day I'd imagine.

Kipper - I try not to filter many people and I read most, if not all posts. I skim over what I feel are irrelevant posts. Of course, anyone can write anything on these boards and I'm not here to police that, but equally anyone can pass judgement on the quality or relevance of these posts, on the basis that this is a public message board, and that's all that I'm doing. ;-)

"The only valuation that counts is the one that is in charge, Sorrell."

I disagree, NigeCo. The only valuation that matters is what the market deems CPI is worth. A shallow market can lead to a sustained period of undervaluation like we're sitting on now, but ultimately it's the market that needs to be convinced of SFOR's value and not what MS says. We're where we are to a large extent because we didn't have our house in order and we were an operational mess. We now have a better focus (I wanted to say laser-like, but we need to wait for some proof say like the results in 3 weeks' time before passing that judgement) operationally under JB and we're winning whoppers outside the tech sector.

I expect the revenue forecasts for H2 to be rosier as the comparables with previous years get easier and that's what will drive the SP higher. What Martin thinks we should be at is of little relevance to the market - it's wait for cold hard figures/forecasts to show through in the results, and once that (positive forecast) is out in the open, we can sustainably move higher.

Till then, we're still range-bound where the only ones that really make money are traders!! OUr turn will come soon, IMO and the H1 results will be the start of that journey. I've put my money where my mouth is and started to add more at these levels!!

Broom - FearFul is a thin-skinned lightie - I wouldn't put much weight on his opinions as they amount to not much, IMO. If he posts facts/posts about CPI that aren't quite yet seen by others that may be useful, but I'd full agree that fascination with shorts is pointless and is just a space-filler on this board whilst we wait for 2025 to roll in and for CPI's financial fortunes to turn around. Might I add, as is the obsession with the C1 one deal close being announced - for those who're expecting the deal close to give a meaningful leg up to the SP, they'll be in for a big disappointment and betrays a lack of understanding of how stock markets work!!

On the cost-cutting news front, one of 3 MDs hired in the Experience sector 2 years ago, was fired (ostensibly, as I don't see anyone quitting on their own in this environment) a few weeks ago. She was the number 2 under Corinne in that division and was the head of FS/growth leader, but when there's no growth this year and into next year, there's not much point in coughing up £250 to 400k for the said role. Xenia is really leaving her mark on Capita's cash cost cut journey, and that is still an ongoing process.

In the meantime as we wait for 2025 to roll in, what moves the SP is new contract wins OR updates on green shoots in the Experience business.

GLA..

Low volume fall = lightweights selling. That's a buying opportunity, IMO!!!

@Bubbles - the two cousins are talking to each other. I sincerely believe that we shouldn't get in the way.

It's not just that - Fed Gov Harker has just now gone on record to say that the neutral rate is at about 3% - that's a good 225 bps lower.

We may just see a 50bps cut in 3 weeks time and if that happens, it's massively positive for us, no matter what happens on a day to day basis with the traders on here!!!

@Believer - "s4 an example of how quickly sentiment can turn".

There is heavy buying ongoing by a fund in S4 and that's boosting the SP. There are no such buyers here in THG and hence its so easy to manipulate to the downside - note plenty of trading posters on here mostly to try to push it to the downside.

There needs to be a strong trading update to turn the fortunes around for the SP here, noting that we're going into the traditionally strong period for retail. Mad Mouldy doesn't help - he just doesn't seem to be capable of getting new funds/IIs on board. Ultimately, governance matters - let's see what he does.

To me it's a bit of comic relief watching Gaslighters try their best to subtly throw in negative talking points, whilst claiming to have no skin in the game. Meekie has gone on a hard-earned holiday after trying so hard on this board, so now his cousin SmallOx is holding fort. Oh well, it takes all.

Simple reality on the markets though, when the C1 deal closes within the next week, we'll get the money in the bank, but that's all baked into the SP. That's what the market does, it always digests the known knowns. We need to wait for new contract wins/renewals for the next big leg up, IMO. Of course if the broader market gets perky then we'll do well along with it - but IMO, 2025 will be the year that I bet we'll see CPI revenues turn higher and take profits up with it on a significantly lowered cost base. Patience will yield the highest rewards.