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I know that this is a volatile number driven by daily incoming data in the US, but the probability of 50bps fed rate cut in just over 5 weeks' time is at 96.5%. Obvious US recession concerns in the market, but it's time that froth in Nasdaq and S&P gets removed. Will help the broader markets and us in the medium to long term.

WHat is your point, Meekie? CPI was the biggest gainer a few weeks ago and I didn't see coming on here and saying kudos who bought in the 13s and maybe even sold some in the 21s. You went away with your tail between your legs and no to be seen until profit taking emerged. It's for this very reason that most of us see through you for the Gaslighter that you are.

We'll do just fine once this bout of correction/broader market weakness plays itself out in the US.

You're still a gaslighter, Meekie. Nothing will change my understanding of that easy concept.

Good luck with your money !!

" Pound strengthening. US will have to cut rates very soon, and quickly imho"

Aim - a intra meeting cut is possible, IMO. Markets now are pricing a 70% probability of a 50bps cut in September. With the way the job markets are falling off a cliff, I agree waiting till September may be a bit late for the Yanks..

70% probability of a 50bps cut in September. I just hope the US economy doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 47 days before the cut.. ;-)

From a macro viewpoint, after today NFP disaster, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed cut 50bps in September. Way to go for Jp!!!

Shiite NFP numbers from the US. It looks likely they'll cut 50bps in September, if not sooner. God knows where the markets will go near term, but a 10% S&P correction from peaks is possible. Will take good old blighty down as well. And opp thereafter to go up.

The upside is that BOE will cut a few times this year!!!

Presentation highlights for me:

EBIDTA has seen substantially improvements in the Public side of things, Experience is getting there, but needs a bit of revenue lift. That's a 2025 story for me on the expectation the UK/European economies start turning around in H2, backed by lower rates.

The big cash outflow figures in H1 were Capex (22m), Interest (21m), Lease payments (27m) - you'd probably assume that these cash costs will stay there or thereabouts in H2, possibly a bit lower in 2025 as debt payment is made in Jan 2025. Cost reduction programme (20m) will cost 30m in H2, but should be way lower in H1 2025. There should be Pension/Cyber cash costs (12.5m) in H2 or H1 2025. That's a positive.

Circa 20m net financial debt at the YE. Pay off 80m in Jan and try to pay off more of the 10% PPNs, if they're callable. Exploring exits on the 'Managed to value' side - maybe more of standalone software/IT network services side?).

80m of the 100m cost cuts are re-org related. 11m procurement benefits - crikey, how long did the previous management sleep at the wheels? Rhetorical question..

They friggin using BCG on strategy advise. They don't come cheap, but they probably identified/advised on some of the efficiencies.

Low to mid single digit revenue growth forecast to drive EDITDA margin improvements to the 6 to 8% range. What's unspoken of is the upside potential in revs and margins when Experience recovers. Again the market and its participants are broadly wrong with the price action today, but we got to play the hand we're dealt with.

I disagree with the thrust of your messages. S4 now has someone operationally adept, JB Berty, and there's the chief revenue officer to look after the sales/revenue side of things. Just because the Ad market is going through a downturn doesn't mean that MS should shut shop, keep head down and not do what he does best - evangelise for S4. He's always had the finger on the pulse from a macro viewpoint and he'll see a ad sector turnaround signs pretty quickly, and I look forward to hearing of such green shoots sooner than later.

Near term we're just being buffeted by low liquidity LSE and that's not something he can control!!

just to put some more colour/clarity on the comment/s on here about us being debt free at ye. what we will be at the end of the year is pre-ifrs 16 nearly 'net debt' free - this is what ah guided to for ye-

for context, jl kept guiding that we will be net debt free on this same metric from the beginning of fy 23, but the dunce and his donkey (tw) couldn't organise a ****up in a brewery if you challenged them. of course we got to a net debt of £188m at the end of fy 23. we're now £20m lower than that ye number, and with an expected £183m cash inflow from the c1 sale and the £10m inflow from deferred comp from the travel sale last year, with an expected net cash outflow of £50m in h2 from ops, we should be at circa £20 to £25m net debt at the end of the year. there will be a debt repayment made in early 2025 to lower interest costs a bit, but we'll need to find more in cash cost savings over h2 and 2025 onwards to get dividends back on track. i really hope that pedro is up to this not so minute task and i do have confidence that ah has picked the right team to execute this strategy.

as simpiles kept stating a few months ago what was confirmed in this report is the offshoring of operations is being ramped up massively and this is where a lot of cost savings are being made. and as he indicated, there are more cuts to come, probably as part of the final £50m cost savings over the next 6 to 12 months.

what was missing is today's report is an indication of what fcf levels are expected to be in 2025 - and i blame that on the clueless tw. we should get a better sense of this in march next year and hopefully, pedro can then start to report fcf forecasts with every report (and keep beating them).

Lol..NoClue - another classic mini gaslighter. Thinks he can influence SP through his fictional trade posts here on this MB.

Are we there yet? In the Green, I mean.. ;-)

"But going bankrupt. Just do one ." @JG68 - MeekKeyboard is a gaslighter. I'd just ignore him - zero value to the board. Keeps spouting the same shiite and of course even a broken clock is right a couple of times a day.

Financially, it was a very positive report. You'd usually expect profits to drop off on a fairly substantial revenue drop like we saw in H1 - the fact that it got better is an endorsement to the focused cost cuts that the company is implementing. And it'll only get better as we roll through H2 and into H1 25.

If they can prepay the high cost debt that they took out last year, that'll be a bonus, but that's more likely a 2025 story after the FCF outlook is solidified. All to play for here, IMO. Rewards accrue to the patient holders.

"Gocpi why would experience coming roaring back?" - It's being held back by the effects of 2023 recession in the UK and broader economic malaise since, held up by high interest rates. Assuming this government can bring UK back to growth, and I plenty of reasons why they can (lower interest rates/rebound from a recession is due/no nasties on the fiscal side), private sector spend will come back in 2025. THis is why Experience will do just fine next year.

"Experience will come roaring back next week" sorry, not next week, but next FY...It's a 2025 upside story for me...

"Dodged a bullet there NOFEAR" - A couple of resident board dunces..🤦‍♂️ Can't see the wood for the trees! Ever!! A bit of patience whilst the little sellers sell out and we'll then be back on track.

IMO - it was a solid update and if the Labour government, for all it's big talk, actually walk this, Experience will come roaring back next week - imagine the EBITDA/FCF upside in that scenario. That's what I'm waiting for.

"We'll be in Green soon" - I think we will. The nervous nellies are getting shaken out

Correct, JG - it's a slight revenue downgrade, all driven by Experience. No more pension contributions from H2 onwards, which is goof for FCF, but in line with stated objective, additional Capex will be spent on the new AI strategy for call centres and others in H2.

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In aggregate, including accelerated pension deficit contributions resulting from business disposals, the Group has made pension deficit contributions of £20.8m in the period and, reflecting the most recent triennial funding agreement, no further deficit contributions are expected in the second half of 2024 and beyond.

The Experience division is the current problem child, as expected, causing a big drag on revenue and margins. If that turns ariound with an improving economy - that's where the revenue and profitability upside lies, and the obvious upside for CPI.

JG is right on that count - today's US selloff is to do their MFG ISM coming in at 46.8 versus the high 48s expected - anything below 50 is contractionary anyway, but the little miss combined with the weekly jobless claims coming in at over 6 month highs created that additional uncertainty that the US job market is slowing more than it should.

With today's data a 25bps rate cut is guaranteed, with a 50bps sitting on a 20% probability. BOE will cut again when they meet in 6 weeks time, particularly if some of the economic data starts to come in weaker. This is what the US markets are trying to figure out and for those who're invested in stocks, if the US goes down they'll take the rest of the world with it and that's the worry for our markets. Personally, this is a blip and the US economy will chug along just fine, and so will we.

"What's sickening is we've cut rates, should be good for us, but our mms are more concerned about US pmi data. FFS" - Patience chaps, patience. The empire wasn't built in a day - if you're not a trader like FearFul or Aim that is.

"it seems Shell do not agree with Rachel Reeves' plans either. (sorry to be off topic" - if you told me that the UK O&G sector has a future either under the tories or under labour, I'd have said you were barking mad. Why is this ever a surprise, if you were actually paying attention? Tories wounded the sector mortally and labour will only deliver coup de grace...