Member Info for GoCPI

He joins the company as a director and CFO designate next Monday, and takes over as the CFO early August.

Trisor - reading between the lines, key to note is that they're upgrading their EBITDA margin forecasts, by holding them over the medium term (read as 2025 and beyond) even after the sale of Capita one, which in 2023 was circa 10% of the company's EBITDA margin %.

And for those of you who may not have read the Capita One sale prospectus, you'll note that the disposal will result in a pretty good one-off profit in the H2/FY 2024 P&L once the sale concludes next month.

And Pablo Andres costs £100k PA lower than the rather useless Tim Weller. ;-)

Good holy lord - so Fearful has his alter ago profile Shorty39 post a couple of times giving him a ringing edorsement. I don't claim to be a mind-reader and decipher his intentions, but gosh it's corny as hell. Oh well, whatever floats his thin-skinned self!!!

Thanks for the amazing hourly trading action analysis. My day is rather fulfilled by these updates and I'm perplexed as to why no one thought of these till now - what would I do without these insights!!!

Good old eviking - another penny pincher right behind Aimless and Fearful. Sold in the 15s and no Cojones to make real money..

Eviking, don't you worry, we'll take all your profits and keep running with them. I don't think there's much you can do about it!!!

AimLess and FearFul saying something sensible and that too when they've cleared out of a long trading position - that's not an expectation I'd want to become a reality. In the best of times, we may get quarter decent input (news pulled from deep internet searches), and on days like today and after with them clearing out of their position, utter tripe will keep flowing certainly from FearFul, and he'll soon be joined by AimLess after CPI goes up a couple of more pennies and they're looking to get back in a couple of pence lower.

It's a perpetual rinse/repeat cycle, and a very stable one at that. Lol ;-) All IMHO..

You've covered that spot on, RedWineDay. I needn't say more!!

Amo - I love value investing and am always on the lookout for shares that are undervalued by the market. CPI is one of them for sure. The problem we also have is that we're also listed on a shiite stock exchange, the LSE. Unless you're a cash flow generating and dividend paying business, the stock valuation will not really get close to fair value. Growth companies (when they're growing) may get better treatement, but only just.

Will we ever see CPI valued at 10X EBITDA in 2024 - not a chance. The real kicker for me is the EBITDA number you quoted - that's a backward looking metric and that should start to trend a bit better in 2024 and a lot better in 2025 when the full impact of the cost cuts will be seen. Even with the 'loss' of the £21m EBITDA from Capita One, the business should still generate substantially higher EBITDA/FCF from 2025 onwards. However, this market has been bitten many by the useless JL and TW many a times previously, and will never give this a higher valuation until they see these hard numbers come through on the financial statements.

EBITDA valuation multiples are used in the acquisitions, but not really in stock valuations in the market. An FCF multiple or a net earnings multiple is far more accepted, and these metrics will trend up nicely in 2025. This needs a bit of patience to fully realise its inherent value.

Having said that, we had a great 40+% run higher in the SP since early last week and maybe the LSE is finally taking baby steps in resolving the core incompetency that it's become well known for?

Hope springs eternal!!!

It's the Shiite low liquidity LSE - the gift that keeps giving!! The only British institution that has consistently delivered since Brexit (and not in a positive way).

I'll be happy to bet my house on the fact that it is unlikely for this (35p) to happen before the H1 results - it's the LSE we're talking about here. The easiest way for participants to make money is to short the hell out of shares and they'll keep doing this until something concrete can be seen in the numbers from the H1 update. This is a completely shallow stock exchange where the rules of value investing don't really work - unless you're dividend paying and you have positive cash flow and profits. I'd like to see us in the 20s first and consolidate, and if the August guidance is good, then a real re-rate is on the cards.

"6-10p share price prediction" Based on what? PMSL...

Had a great few days with both SFOR and CPI (2nd biggest holding). SFOR will probably give me/us the bigger returns when the tide returns given their real high US revenue exposure and the sector turnaround. We're stuck between low 40s and 60 as the trading range - it'll be fab to see a breakout higher.

"What are you on Fella" - Yet another clueless trader - that certainly springs to mind!!! Must be counting all the dimes he's lost since selling his 100 shares yesterday.

Pre-IFRS 16 NET financial debt is circa £200m currently - the sale should wipe that out completely. That is the interest bearing debt and is what matters from a covenant viewpoint. The rest of the 'debt' is the NPV of lease payments into the future.

Sure, Trisor. Things can get a lot better and we can get to 25p+ in early August. Things can indeed change quickly.

Nice day for holders, but still a long way to go before we get to a valuation that resembles a modicum of reality for CPI.

@Trisor - I don't mind a but of reminding particularly to smug traders who think they're the best thing that happened to mankind since sliced bread.

All that today's sale has showed up is how very undervalued we were. Even at 150m EBITDA and an ultra conservative 5x multiple, we should be in the high 30s. All this sale action has really done is show up how undervalued the business was. And there are multiple ways the market can stand up and take notice of this discrepancy and today's was one such. And it's not every day that I can say 'I told you so' to the traders. And when we get a chance, I/we should only point out the obvious!!!

Aim - That 200 share sale didn't move the market!! ;-)

Good luck whilst the longs enjoy this ride and look forward to the H1 update.

Good old AimLess - I'm happy to rub it in. Run to mummy and cry your sorrows away. 25% up, and still running. You never know when surprise news like this drops and shakes up the SP - that's why real longs win out over a longer horizon!!!

SP was very, very undervalued and the sale today showed the market how undervalued this was in the past few months, and its only but course correcting.

Poor NoClue and AimLess- Don't worry, you can still Nickel and Dime in the high teens or the 20s..All's not lost for you yet!!!

Maybe this was one of the reasons why there were large volumes building over the past 3 to 4 days, whilst the Nickel and Diming traders were 'selling' their holdings. If we get a good jump, and there's every reason why we should, the look on AimLess and NoClue's faces will indeed be a grand sight to behold.

From the disposal RNS there are a couple of points that catch your eye -

1. As announced on 13 June 2024 at Capita's Capital Markets Event, standalone software activities, including the Capita One business, are part of the Group's activities that are being "managed for value".

2. Although short term pro forma results are expected to be impacted by the Disposal, Capita is maintaining its medium-term guidance for the continuing Group based on the benefits of the cost saving and technology initiatives previously outlined.

POint 1 reiterates that this business was being managed to realise value for the group. On that basis, receiving > £200m for this business upfront is great. There's the point that even with only 2% of revenues , they were generating circa 10% of the EBITDA for the group. This year's EBITDA numbers, particularly in H2 may be impacted, but come 2025 CPI could be net debt negative on an IFRS 16 basis. And hence the emphasis on medium term EBITDA also recovering to their expected range..That is how they intend to manage the overall business.

Given that this transaction is not happening with the hapless JL at the helm and with TW running the money down to pay their high cost base, I view this as very positive. I'd like to think that the market will agree.

GLA..