Member Info for GoCPI

adding more to my trading position today...eho knows it may even become core depending on tomorrow's update. :-)

step 1 of value realisation is in place - rate cut that i love and i've been calling for for ages.:-) step 2 of the journey is tomorrow, imo. more will be known i the hard numbers on the p&l and the balance sheet, as well as their future financial pathway.

i've been pretty convinced, maybe even ****y, about that fact that i thought that the first rate cut would happen today. gla... and i'm now being equally ****y that we'll have a good day tomorrow and after...of course, with stops on the way ;-)

@Kipper - that disconnect, IMO, is a symptom of a couple of things.

1. The LSE has become a very shallow market with most IIs focusing on the US to extract higher returns and that's perpetuating a self-fulfilling cycle of low returns for the wider UK stocks

2. Company specific, JL and TW have simply been horrendous for shareholders. These numpties couldn't bring themselves to make the hard calls needed to ensure CPI is a successful business in the long run - they let inefficiencies fester and let CPI's finances trundle along the bottom. One good HY report was followed by 2 or 3 horrendous ones, and the result was that the shallow market took us down to levels that are unfathomable, in my mind.

Those wrongs are being righted, slowly but surely, by the current management. The market may yet need a couple of reports - tomorrow's and the next one (could even be the 11 month update) before it's convinced that we're on a sustainable recovery path and re-rate us higher.

As an example, we only need to look at what happened with RR in the past 18 to 24 months. If AH and co can turn this around sustainably, we could be off to the races over that timeframe. Tomorrow's financials will show us the way, IMO.

It's coming home, today!!!!

FY23 results were what I term as a proper clean-up/kitchen-sinking - that came as a surprise to the market. That's now out of the way and I can't see how such an outcome would come about with the H1 results. What the market would like to see now is progress on cost cuts and how that's trickling down to the bottom line - both in H1 as well as in H2. Any steer on 2025 EBITDA margins will be welcome too.

The real upside for us will be predicated on the macro economy turning around and we should see the BOE cutting rates today to start that improvement cycle. I'd love to see a 10+% upside day tomorrow, but won't be disappointed if we get half that.

We'll also say goodbye to the pointless Weller after he probably leads the Financial results section presentation tomorrow.

I'll wager that the BOE will cut today. Far too long have they been the Fed's dogs and they'd do well to see that they'll bring on a bigger downturn if the cuts, globally I'd suggest, don't come in very soon. My money is on a 25bps cut at 12 PM.

"I'm not expecting any great revelations on Friday and feel that we may then drift a bit but I really don't have a problem with that."

This is spot on, PJT. Peronally, I'm running a marathon, not a sprint. CPI has seen the impact of lower margins on the SP with the H1 results annoucement last year and AH/XW have put the company on a thorough cost cut regime. We'll get a flavour of what looks like on Friday - we'll see some positive one-offs from the sale that concluded early this year and some negative one-offs from the layoffs. What's far more important is how we're shaping up from a margin viewpoint in H2 and into H1 2025. We all know of the FCF tailwinds in 2025 - it's just a matter of staying patient and cutting through the traders' and nervous nellies' daily noise on these boards. IMO, a turnaround (in financials) will be visible in the Friday results and will get better through the next 18 months. I don't know nor really care if we get a double-digit rise or a fall on Friday a long as I'm comfortable with the business trakectory. Dividends in 2024 is a pipe-dream and if that's your investment thesis, you'll be sorely disappointed. However, a 2025 dividend is nailed in, IMO.

With a turnaround share, great rewards accrue to those with great patience. GL..

Good lord, we're still banging on about that circa £27b notional loss (at current all-time high gold prices) on the gold sale initiated by Brown from early 2000s. Talk about being penny wise, pound foolish. The Tories were running up massive ANNUAL budget deficits of >£100b and that gold sale is all we have to hang our hat on to criticise the current Labour government. That's having proper blinkers on.

Both labour and Tories have contributed majorly to these massive budget deficits, just as both Dems and Repubs have done so in the US. Take a chill pill, relax and let Reeves get to work and weigh up your investment decisions based on actually policy, not based on what we think it could be blinded by our blinkers.

Did I ever expect UK O&G to die the kind of slow death it's now going through driven by Tory policy? Never in my wildest dreams, but you got to react based on actual policy and now that sector is dead in the water.

I've said this many times, I expect Capita to continue to thrive and do just fine under a Labour government. After the economic morass of the past 24 months, daylight is ahead and this government stands to reap the rewards. Reeves is not Lefty chancellor and is fiscally fairly prudent and her stated objective is to drive growth. They have no other option but to push forward with the growth agenda. And that's good for Capita.

"With all due respect NF, you don't have a clue what you are on about."

@DWatkins - My favourite moniker for FearFul is NoClue - he literally has no clue - he's either a pumper when he's scouring the internet for anything positive to post OR when he's out of a trading position OR short, he's perpetually fear mongering.

The NoFear moniker is a travesty to those who actually have the ba*lls to sit through trading cycles. Personally, I get Zero value from his posts other than when he digs up articles that are positive when he's long. However, to each their own.

He lost on a a few pounds by selling early in the recent runup, but c'est la vie. We now have to put with his daily insane posts..Crikey.

Stay patient, hold the line...Rewards incoming..

GL Holders..

Darkblue - Lol..

I don't think you'd ever have to put yourself through the ignominy of picking up a Tesla drivng Kent'r to the 50p (60) party. Meekie is not in this to make real money - he thinks his gaslighting more than compensates his inability to spot and invest in real money spinning multi-baggers like CPI.

He'll be forever happy with his 6% PA yielding investments - who am I to argue though? it's better than a 1% return that the conformists seek.

"You think right, Sir. .. ..integral advanced Mathsis obviously your strong subject at school this year ?"

Lol..

Seriously though, Trenners is spot on. Too may missteps in the past to allow for expectations to run wild - I'd like to stay grounded too. Baby steps - let's get to 30 first with a good outlook in the August release, and get the market to re-align expectations on what AH and his team can deliver. 50p over the next 18 months is a great outcome - of course, if revenues start beating market expectations, we could then see the share price trend a lot higher, driven by a lower cost base. The reality is that since the March 2020 crash, the highest we ever got to is circa 55p - that's quite a mountain to climb from these levels. Stay grounded and don't get carried away by an upbeat update or two - that'll help you in the long run. ;-)

Good weekend chaps!!!

I ignore Gaslighters' views - and MeekKeyboard sits squarely in that basket. Can't pick winners, can't see the wood for the trees, and worse yet, can't do forward looking analysis. If only Meekie had picked CPI over BT, he'd have made money - some people are just not upto the task though!! Whatever floats their boat though!!!

If only the primary listing was on ............ I know I sound like a broken record.

Trisor - it's all in the Capita One disposal prospectus. Net cash to be received after accounting for cash on Capita One's books + disposal costs = £178.6m, and add the £4.8m dividend, and we end up at £183.4m as net cash received. Page 8 in the prospectus (link below) has the details.

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2024-07/Final_Circular_for_publication_on_website_10_July-2024.pdf

Hex, JG - A couple of points. Capita will receive net cash after costs of circa £185m (including the dividend) and not the £207M. It's not much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, but numbers are numbers. I posted about this earlier this week PLUS we stand to receive another £9m in November 24 from the travel business deal that closed in November last year (deferred payment).

There was still the FERA deal that closed in Q1 24, and the C1 deal that will close in Q2 (end of next month), so there may just be light-touch FCF/rev/profitability adjustments this HY and this FY, but likely we're at the end of the line.

Its useful to note that even with the projected negative FCF this year, with the incoming cash proceeds, we're at negative net debt (circa £10 to 20M). 2 weeks to more clarity on the state of business and financials, and more colour on whether there are green shoots in the business on the back of a recovering UK economy.

@Hex - that was a bit of a brain fade from me and you're right in the correct assessment of FCF - one-offs from investing activities (Capita One asset sale in this case) isn't included in FCF. It boosts our cash balance is more like it.

Ultimately if you think about the Cash Flow statement that's released on a HY basis on the LSE - it consists of 3 components - Cash from operations/Cash from investing/Cash from financing. If you're saying that the Cash from operations component of the CF statement is the key driver for FCF, I agree that's correct.

"In any event any sale proceeds sit outside of FCF so will have no impact on that measure."

That is incorrect. It's one thing to say that FCF will go up this year because of the one-off, rather than say it sits outside of FCF - that doesn't make any sense. Prior to the sale, it was guided there would be negative FCF of £60-70 Mill this year from operations - with the cash proceeds from the sale, FCF for this year would be positive £115 to £125 Mill, assuming all else remains the same.

You could've been UP 60%...

Meekie - you could've been 60% if only you'd bought it at 13 just over 2 weeks ago. Alas, some people are not in to make money - gaslighting isn't quite as noble or valuable as you make it out to be!!

I can see that the resident gaslighter, MeekKeyboard, is back again. If only he had bought CPI instead of gaslighting this board, he'd a much happy blokey. Labour will keep giving CPI hundreds of millions, there's no other option for them - money spinner this one, IMO.