Member Info for GoCPI

RWD - I broadly agree with you there. I/we can't call when the trend will sustainably turn around, but I'm inclined to believe next Thursday will be the start of that process. I'll do one last topup tomorrow should the price stay around or below these levels - I'm pushing to get my holdings to a milestone number and I'm 18k shares shy as of today. Let the sellers sell out of a gem whilst the believers/knowers accumulate.

GL..

@1Pencil - thanks for that thought. I'm an illiterate when it comes to a trading strategy involving equity swaps getting 'pushed in and out' of price points. If you have a few minutes and if you're inclined to, can you briefly explain how that works and why that strategy works like a charm in low liquidity stocks/market? Ta..

I can only empathise with that, LL. I don't know if you've averaged down and I'm not one for advising that someone buy S4 on a given day, but with a stable to improving US economic outlook as rates are cut and inflation pressures wane, I believe we could see a much needed improvement in this sector's fortunes in the coming quarters.

That's why I've built up a pretty decent position in S4 and I think 2025 should be an inflection year for S4. All IMO.

RWD - as always, its pretty easy to knock S4 down - easy momentum to the downside on no news (maybe rumours) and you'd need hard buying to get this higher.

Added more today and this is at right around the average price for all my S4 holdings. I was well in the green at 65p and never thought we'd get here to the mid-45s, but it seems like this shallow market actually wants to see signs of a turnaround happening before a rerate upwards. How mind-numbingly forward looking is LSE?

We await the 19th..

News leak possibly? Today is a high volume selloff and that isnt great. We know H1 will be shiite, but that's passé I'd have thought. But momentum trading is a good explanation too. It's unnerving all the same - no thanks to our shiite markets. :-)

Geezuz - I'm convinced that debate last night marked the beginning of the end for the Orange baboon and the dog/cat/(other pet) eating by Haitian immigrants conspiracies promoted by the utterly despicable MAGA numpties across the pond.

Rally time for Solar stocks in the US going into 2025, and us!!!

Chaps - how about the unadulterated joy from the king cheese of Bourgogne, Epoisses? That with a glass of it's sister wines - a Montrachet or a Meursault - ooh la la!! :-)

More of those when stock goes past 30p next year - I remain optimistic. The useless BOE should look at oil prices cratering and cut 50 bps in the next meeting. THey won't, but we'll take 25 bps. ;-)

Jcj07 - good move, IMO. Don't get me wrong, the drawdown from 66 to 46p over a few weeks on no negative news, has been painful, to me for sure. I'd built a pretty large holding (for my portfolio) in S4 going into the runup to 66p, and I kept adding on the way down to 46p. I broadly remain optimistic over the medium term as we move into 2025, noting that I can't predict where we'll go to if we get a good sized market drawdown in the coming days/weeks.

I remain optimistic and if the stock does draw down more, I'll look to put some more of my cash reserves to use.

With oil falling off a cliff in the past few weeks and that boding well for inflation, the Fed could give the market that bps cut that the US (and global) economy really needs, IMO. That plus the results (its more the forecast) next week that could put us on a good recovery path going into 2025.

Added more today!!

The inimitable LSE.

"I've said for years now S4 Capital is trading on the wrong stock exchange, it should be on the Nasdaq.

The London stock exchange is finished, who in their right mind would IPO on LSE."

Procedamus in pace, in nomine Christi AMEN!!! I needn't add more.

THat projected FCF figure is still a massive improvement over the negative FCF we've been seeing since forever at CPI (not FCF).. ;-)

@culley - these are FCF projections from the sell-side and these are after the increased Capex in 2024/25 as some of the cost savings is used on IT Capex to better our offerings. THat projected FCF figure is still a massive improvement over the negative FCF we've been seeing since forever at FCF. The upside to those numbers is 1. either Pablo fleshing more cash savings from the business and 2. improved revenues boosting FCF. It's point 2 that will drive CPI sustainably higher above the 30s, IMO. More clarity will be had from the December update and more importantly the FY 24 results in March.

I've nibbled on some more today and been nibbling on the way down from the high 50s during this wash down. Personally, I'm sitting on my highest holdings ever, but I remain sanguine noting that inspite of the US growth scare right now, rates will be cut next week and a US recession is not in the offing. Near term, there may be more volatility, but things should settle down as we go into October and beyond.

@trenners - You misunderstood me and I suppose I didn't lay the marker down clearly. I'm not sure how a binary outcome can be construed as a 50-50% scenario as Bubbles is suggesting - that's a BS understanding of a binary outcome. The point about there being 2 possible binary outcomes for CPI was then not about me then saying that bankruptcy could be on the cards for CPI - far from it and hence my having built a pretty large position in CPI, more than most stated holdings on here, lower than Crowman if he's still holding >2m shares. That's my confidence level in CPI being a winning investment.

The point I was trying to make, and possibly unsuccessfully in that late evening post on Saturday, was that I don't place any credence in the bankruptcy outcome that Meekie has been riling people up with and getting them to do stuff that's pointless such as posting more tripe on BT's board as an act of 'retribution'.

If you're convinced that your investment thesis is correct/solid, then why be affected by Meekie's goading, particularly when that someone can't wrap their head around a turnaround story that CPI will be when the economy turns around in 2025, IMO. The cost cuts have us placed very well to ride that upswing.

GL...

"Filter is YOUR option. Or, just take up golf, and test yourself. "Ve must try harder", as our German friends say|" There's a Lol from me there, Dalt. I'm a circa 19 H'capper, but I don't try and use the filter button as much as I can as I'd be in an echo chamber otherwise. Just like investing, how and what you do on a board like this is a reflection of how you are as a investor.

Good old Meekie is a good for nothing attention seeker making 10p a post on the CPI board from the shorting hedgies on CPI - she thrives on keeping the feedback loop running on here. The more the responses to her pointless posts, the merrier it is. And of course it gets better from there as you now have CPI holders going to the BT board and posting pointless posts, IMO, there. I can't imagine what that really achieves for them OR for us here. CPI's outcomes from here on is binary - either we get to bankruptcy from here that takes the SP to zero or Adolfo executes the long awaited turnaround that gives us 2 to 3x from these levels in 2025/26 and maybe more if the economy delivers under Labour. What Meekie posts on here through her backward looking lens won't impact if AH delivers or not and shouldn't that be all that matters for us lot? I suppose I'm pontificating now, but hey ho.

I firmly believe he will and what happens to the SP in the next 3 to 4 months or even into early 2025 as the UK economy recovers, should be of little consequence to most of us on here - AimLess and FearFul, and other traders notwithstanding. A little self-discipline in our response to posts and our investment approach go hand in hand even if numpties like Meekie hang around here like leeches - I'll leave it at that and keep my vigil going for the next positive piece of news from CPI.

S4 is dissimilar to THG in a couple of fundamental ways and thankfully so.

1. It doesn't have a egotistic mad-man at the helm who feels the need to load the company with Yes men 2. Circa 80% of revenues comes from North America and that ad market can pivot quickly once rates come down. Where they're both similar is that they are listed on the pathetically shallow LSE where a SP can be brought down > 20% on no news in pretty much a straight line. Move S4's primary listing to the NYSE and a lot of ills with the SP can be righted. With THG the reality may just be a lot different - I hold some, but that share isn't the route to riches, not for me anyway.

More broadly though, S4's financial performance isn't tied to the UK economy and that's a huge relief. The next update may at best show shoots, but if the Fed watchers' 100 bps rate cuts by the end of 2024 materialises, S4 will have a material upside in 2025. It's a long game for me and one that I'm confident well do us wonders over the next few quarters.

With prior month downward revisions in the NFP and this month's numbers being tepid, higher probability now of 50bps cut in 12 days' time. We won't get another PCE deflator index reading (fed's preferred inflation gauge) prior to the fed meeting and in the grand scheme of things, wage growth isn't viewed as closely by the fed as it is by the useless BOE MPC, the odds are rising for a 50bps cut. That's a good outcome for us..

Large volume down day today - interesting to say the least.

"Nonsense.This is price being driven by algo trading. HF's using the reactive low II and PI trading to work the price. No news is creating the oxygen for this.

This stock will recover when there is positive news."

Spot on, RWD. That positive news could be economy related too, but the results on the 19th should provide the initial impetus for the SP upwards.