Member Info for GLR1990

I think a sales update will come end of May/Early June - I don't see the point in updating unless a material order/orders come in, which it possibly could (circa 10% of MCAP so £20-30m)

Not sure why people are selling today, everyone has their own reasons, people clearly feel the risks here, to be unbiased this is how I see it

Pros
- 10m kits per month, up from 2m between Jan-March and up from the forecasted 8m - at 50% EBITDA current price = around £40-50m EBITDA+ per month
- 2m, 8m, 10m+ demand increasing and they are able to scale up, in a few months time at this rate, that could be 14-16m+, so yes people are a little concerned about 50% margin however if they increase production by 60%, then the monthly EBITDA becomes £70-80m
- 10m is not a lot of tests, in fact NCYT alone would take 6 months to test the whole of the UK, once, so anyone who is fearful of competition or a decrease in demand, at least in the short term (3-6 months) I feel is underestimating the size of the market, NCYT also operates globally
- The portable test kit should increase the monthly capacity from 10m to a greater number, I wont speculate on this however
- Again £250m MCAP for £90m already booked orders at 50% margin is pretty good, considering the numbers they could be bringing in for May, June, July+

Cons
- Cash generation, only £9m in the bank so difficult to understand why this is so low, a lot of the revenue may be future contracted however, so not yet realised - also, it's possible we only get say 20% up front and then the rest of the revenue on delivery, again this would explain why cash is low at the end of April

Ultimately, I think the market is focusing far too much on the 'unknowns' when the 'knowns' are extremely positive

You place your bets and live with the outcome, I am still expecting £7-9 per share by early-mid summer

Mobile printer?! LOL
Sorry Mobile Test!

SH if they can develop a portable, mobile printer, then personally IMO they will be doing more than 10m tests per month - this is a fantastic innovation and I look forward to future news on this development

Have I missed something today?

£90m already booked/contracted, that's without May
10m tests per month from June onwards, so without further scale that's circa £80-100m GBP per month, an an excess of 50% margin (lets just keep it at 50% for now) should this demand continue until year end, they will have generated an extra £250-300m EBITDA - a few months ago they could only do 2m tests per month, now they can do 10m, who is to say in 3 months time they wont be doing 12-20m tests per month?

Brill, many thanks

Where are you guys getting the live french data?

Skit, people had this down as a short when it was 60p, to be fair with the little data they had back then (300K tests sold) you can't argue the case, for a company to rise 300-400% on potentially 1m of revenue, little did they know that in the month of April NCYT would be making triple that, per day

Added some more today around 350p - doesn't really matter £235m MCAP / £250m MCAP

Not sure if anyone seen my post yesterday, but in summary there was an article posted yesterday which said the US government has allocated $75 billion for testing / tracing, recently in April over on the AVCT board I shared a report from Harvard (which was being used by the US) which stated they wanted upto '100m tests per day' and planned on spending $15 billion per month

The figure of $75 billion tells me two things initially, 1. that the original estimate of $15 billion per month is correct, they did say this may drop as 'innovation' helps with testing however, one would presume this $75 billion is going to be for an initial period of probably 6 months versus the entire year - meaning again, we are likely correct in our estimates that the US market alone will top $100 billion on testing and 2. confirms that if any one company can obtain 1% of the global market (I think AVCT will do this as they will likely have the best antigen test on the market, if successful, however NCYT are already way ahead of the competition in terms of contracts, operating territories and manufacture, so I also believe NCYT can capture 1% of the global market) - in all honesty, they may capture a lot more than 1%, but why is 1% important?

Well if the US market is $100 billion, then we can be sure the rest of the world will likely make up $500 billion - 1% of this is $5 billion - I have seen a lot of posts across boards GDR, NCYT, AVCT and even ODX (which is antibody and has nothing to do with the other three) trying to run down the competition and put one share ahead of the other, when actually it is all petty and meaningless, no one company can supply the whole world, if they could then they'd be making $500 billion in revenue, that's not going to happen, if you can capture 1-2% you will do extremely well and there is room for a lot of companies to capture that amount - if you can capture more, well the sky is the limit

AVCT had some good snippets in the final year results, although we did drop on the day over there before bouncing back pretty quickly
Personally, I am more looking forward to an update in early June, and positioning accordingly, if my forecast is correct of over £200m in contracted / booked revenue - at that rate, by the end of the summer, NCYT would have contracted / booked more than £500m in revenue, if that is over 60% margin, then the current MCAP today would be covered by cash

Thanks TG - good post
Yes I assumed they would not want to dilute the margin too much, companies tend to focus on keeping the overall margin of the group or division consistent when they release new products, if anything they try and increase this and when the test kit was designed, I would presume they didn't expect this much demand so would likely have not 'priced in' to the margin what they currently have achieved, so likely they designed the test kit and pricing structure around those existing margins

I am super late to the party here but I did some calculations over the weekend, although very difficult to predict as we dont know how much of the contracted revenue will increase, however this is what I found

Between 12/16 march, NCYT made 1.4m in revenue at an average 350K per day
Between 16/30 march, NCYT booked/made an extra 14.1m in revenue (total 17.8m) average of 1m per day, 2.8x the daily average in the period analysed 12-16/03
Between 30/03 and 29/04 NCYT Booked/contracted a further 72.2m revenue, this was a 2.3x daily increase (slightly less than the 14 days end of march) however resulted in a daily average of 2.3m per day

My forecast is a 1.69x daily increase for May, which is the current run rate based on the few figures we have, which would take them to a daily average of 3.9m per day in booked/contracted revenue, and a total increase i revenue for the period 29/04 to 29/05 of around 118m - total booked/contracted revenue at the end of May of 208m

Hard to forecast june as they plan to increase to 8m tests per month, also difficult as some of the revenue is contracted/pre-booked, so hard to know what pressure that will have on current capacity e.g. can they book more, but I think the forecast for May is pretty strong

If those margins are 50% then the current market cap is an absolute steal

Morning everyone
Whats the expected margins here, is it complicated depending on territory/location or is there a general rule of thumb?
Thanks,
GLR

Type $300 should be $300m of course and the missing article in example 2
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/trump-says-us-will-be-able-to-run-5-million-coronavirus-tests-per-day-very-soon-despite-shortages-across-states.html

I personally believe a lot of you on here are wildly underestimating the size of the market
Please refer to this article
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-tests-rockefeller-plan-would-screen-millions-for-covid-19.html

Quotes of interest
- radically increase the number of coronavirus tests in the United States would see up to 30 million people screened each week and cost up to $100 billion.
- The Rockefeller Foundation’s plan calls for tripling the current level of 1 million Covid-19 tests per week, followed by a 10-fold increase nationally within six months.

Based on those figures you are looking for a 10 fold increase of 1m tests per week, so circa 40-50m per month, however if we take a look at this article posted 1 week later
- President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. will “very soon” run five million corona-virus tests per day.

We then get to astronomical numbers, in the 100's of millions per month, in fact, it's not hard to estimate even higher numbers when innovation comes through

I personally didn't expect Avacta to charge so much per test, and also not to obtain such a high royalty - however it is becoming more and more clear that Cytiva, a fantastic global partner, are not validating the test nor do they have exclusive rights (as AVCT retains all commercial) therefore this 10% royalty idea I had is ludicrous, and would more likely be 30-40% - if we assume a third which is what Myles is estimating for the $15 test ($5) then we can start to forecast some figures

1% of the USA market over the next 6 months, lets say it is a $100 billion dollar market (I personally expect it to be that in the USA alone) that's around $300 in revenue at a 30% cut, at an extremely high margin this fully funds everything Avacta could ever have wanted to do and more, and that's just 1% of the market in the USA

They also have an agreement with Adeptrix

My target is over $1 billion in revenue for Avacta by the end of 2020, and I am sticking with it

It's just placing shares, both placings came on the market on the 5th and 6th, I thought the test announcement would put us in the 60+ range but for whatever reason
I have bought at 22p 27p and 45p, the last buy being underwater of course, but I am not fussed, if they do release a test kit in the next 2-3 months, then the current market cap will be dwarfed, we know they are working with Apatamer and we know its Paraytec who are 100% owned, what we do need is Aptamer to find a good partner to manufacture/develop the test kit, a bit like Cytiva have done with AVCT and GDR

In fact, in regards to 1.

The test should come to market as the aptamers have been developed, this is the 'high risk' factor when trying to develop a test kit, so with that out of the way, they shouldn't be short of partners / manufacturers

Likely just a matter of time before 1-3 are answered, and the MCAP here surges considerably DYOR not advice

Agree, hopefully most of the placees that want to leave are out today, it wasn't a huge dilution so shouldn't take too long with current interest

There are still some key questions of course to be answered
1. Will the test actually make it to market?
2. Are they in discussions with large scale manufacturers or partners to develop a LFT/POC test
3. What % of the revenue will go to Paraytec

But at £13m MCAP, if 1-2 come to fruition, then I am sure 3. will be much more than £13m :-)

Also they do have other investments!

Hi Everyone

I wasn't fortunate enough to purchase any of this at the very lows of 7p, when it was a hand sanitiser + other play, but I have traded it from 22p to 36-37p recently and made an alright amount

However today I have taken a longer position, after reading up about aptamer group over the last few weeks, originally I thought it was sentinel that was partnering on the test kit, sentinel being 38% owned by BRH, so I was happy to read that it was Paraytec that partnered on the CV19 test kit (other investments are also partnered, but 100% of Paraytec is better than 38% of Sentinel)

The Aptamers remind me a little bit like Avacta's affimers, in the way in which they are more advantageous, both cost wise and production/supply wise, than existing methods - What Aptamer needs is a large partner to scale up testing and demand, somebody like Cytiva for example

A few days ago Aptamer released an article that in just six days they found aptamers that successfully binded against the virus, this is a huge milestone and if Aptamer Group was listed on AIM, it would have done a significant rise post this news - i personally believe this is a major derisk and why I took a long term position today

If they can develop a successful test kit, then finding a manufacturer will be very easy, the market for the 'aptamers' and test kits is astronomical, the new standard seems to be POC and minutes (as per the RNS) so this gives them an advantage over existing methods, people who say they may be late to the party are completely missing the market

I am invested in #AVCT among others, and see this partnership with Aptamer extremely promising, I personally believe they have got the hard work mostly out of the way and would expect a further update shortly, and possibly another partner on board such as Cytiva (who are already working with GDR and AVCT)

Anyway just my two cents, I dont have a target price but it is considerably higher than the current MCAP, which a lot of it is under pinned by the other investments

As always not advice and DYOR

Huh that is interesting

Looks like GE is tomorrow at 10am https://www.ge.com/investor-relations/events-reports
Danaher later in the day tomorrow at 3pm https://www.marketscreener.com/DANAHER-CORPORATION-12295/calendar/
(For those that are new, Danaher bought out GE Healthcare and rebranded it as Cytiva, who are partnered with Avacta)

And our AGM is on the 6th!

Be interesting to see if anything is announced tomorrow by GE

Does our AGM date match theirs?
That is very interesting indeed if so

So much money being thrown at this :-)