Member Info for GLR1990

Posted these on Twitter but will share here, short interview but lots of information

Interview Notes – Avacta – 24/04/2020
1. Develop a rapid POC test for the CV19 Antigen – pregnancy style with Cytiva, will take a few minutes and will be used for both PROFESSIONAL USE and CONSUMER SELF TESTING and be Saliva based
2. Avacta have produced affirmers that detect the virus within only 4 weeks, generating a large number (more than 50) which bind to the spikes on the outside of the virus, those can now be used in POC test and other diagnostic tests
3. Identifying the best Affimer regents from the 50 produced, will provide these to Cytiva next week so they can begin developing that rapid test strip / diagnostic format
4. We have retained all commercial rights to the affirmers and the testing
5. We are going to continue our ongoing discussions with other diagnostic companies with a view to establish other partnerships to develop rapid test strips and other forms of diagnostics that can help fight the rapid spread of CV19

Good post BBN

If it is truly more consistent in detection SARS-COV-2 in patients that are asymptomatic, then that really is the game changer right there - as in due course, 99.9% of testing will be those who are asymptomatic - this is the market

:-) Just noticed how that could come across extremely silly
When I say bit too scientific, I mean too scientific for me to fully understand!

Just read that whole report, bit too scientific for me but some key points

Two healthcare workers who tested negative for COVID19 tested positive on the saliva samples, even two days later both patients tested negative again using the nasal swabs but again positive on the saliva samples

Saliva is more consistent during extended hospitalisation and recovery, we found that the sensitivity to SARS-COV2 detection from saliva is comparable, if not superior to nasal swabs

A saliva based assay has already gained approval for EUA by the US FDA to meet growing testing demands

Our findings support the immediate validation and implementation of saliva for SARS COV2 diagnostics

Saliva may be an alternative for identifying mild or subclinical infections - THIS PART IS HUGE, because most people who are 'out and about' e.g. trying to go back to work will have no symptons, so this is absolutely massive news

Note: the two healthcare workers happened to be asymptomatic as well

Great news

"We found that saliva yielded greater detection sensitivity and consistency throughout the course of infection."

You know all the trolls on here this morning has actually got me now thinking there won't be any placing churn and we will finish the day even higher than we began

If they never attacted anyone I would think OK, well maybe Cytiva see something the other's dont - but they did, with little money, little brand awareness, they still managed to do deals with major pharmas such as Moderna and LG Chem

As I said in the last post, now that technology is on the global stage

Seriously, best investment case I have come across in the last 2-3 years - and an absolute steal under £250m

What excites me the most about this share, is how they have been pitching this technology for the last few years, and also interested some huge players (such as LG Chem for example) - now this technology is going to be pitched to the entire world, I can't imagine the interest that will come their way

Whether it be utilised on a test kit, for targetting tumours, or for gene delivery - every major pharma will know what an affimer is in a couple of weeks, if not already, and that truly is groundbreaking

BN I understand your post
I think we have met in the middle
I dont agree that the placing will have an impact as it should all be priced in and at the new validation, we are still massively undervalued, also with such close proximity to game changing news, I predict the only way is up
However, yes, for most investments where the placing was done on the CURRENT STORY AKA the business did not change materially between issue and admission, then yes I would usually wait and buy once those investors had sold at a profit

AVCT is a different case because the story has dramatically changed, and placees have had 3 weeks to forward sell etc. - but yes, agree if the story did not change in anyway from the placing announcement until tomorrow, I would be buying in post admission

It may take a hit if those new investors decide to sell at a huge profit, I have never argued against that, my argument was your £ holding does not go down, just the % of your holding

Hence why I said we might be coming in at different angles :-)

Personally I dont feel like the SP will take a hit as at these prices because I feel the valuation should be much higher even with the new shares added

I was arguing that your holding will not go down tomorrow on issue of these new shares, only if those investors decide to sell

" that the only way that the share price remains at 66p after the placing, is if the market value the business higher than before the placing."

That's not what people have been saying! they are saying if you buy today at 67p it will be worth 59p tomorrow, which is totally incorrect

I think we are both coming in from different angles but can meet in the middle, if you mean that tomorrow the MCAP of the company will increase by 18% and, you buy today at say £100m MCAP and want to sell at £120m MCAP - then yes, you wont make any money because the MCAP is going to increase tomorrow by X amount (18.7% I believe it is)

However what I am saying is nobody on here values the company less than what the MCAP will be tomorrow, so in theory the placing shouldn't have any impact as we are still incredibly undervalued at tomorrows MCAP

But people on here are saying oh I'll buy tomorrow because 66p today is 59p tomorrow, which is completely wrong

The investor has bought 50% of my company at the valuation of £2, however my company is now worth £10
I own a 25% share which means I own £2.50 of something worth £10 - fortunate for investor B his original £1 is worth £5

The placing doesn't devalue my company, it only decreased the percentage of my holding, even if the share price goes to 1 billion, by company doesn't get devalued, if anything it potentially becomes overvalued - unless investor B decides to sell his £5 share for £2.50, then of course it the share price will go down, but thats been the whole point of the conversation on here for weeks, will the new investors sell or hold - what price do they value the company? Most of us on here believe this company is worth well more than its current MCAP and WAY more than the MCAP of what the company will be tomorrow with the new shares added

Can't believe what I am reading
Do people seriously not know how a placing works?

In the simplest of terms

We have a pound coin - you own 50p and I own 50p
We need another pound coin to grow our business
Investor B comes along with a pound coin, so we let him be part of our business
Our business is now worth £2 - Investor B holds 50% as he owns a pound
I own 25% but I still own 50p as does my business partner

Before we got investment from Investor B, we both STILL HAD 50P however 50p was 50% of our company
After investment, we both STILL HAVE 50p, however we now only own 25% of our business, however our business is now worth £2 vs £1 before

This is how you grow a business...

Shares tomorrow will be worth exactly the same as they are today

If you own one share in a ten share company, you own 10% - that company is currently valued 1 millon pounds
They place to raise another 1 million, issuing 10 more shares
you now only own 5% of the company, however due to the additional shares, the company is now valued at 2m
In other words, your investment value remains the same, you just dont hold as large a % as you did before AKA dilution
But you do ultimately hold a smaller percentage in a bigger pie

Companies raise money to GROW, every company needs quick access to capital
Hence why placings, unless they are to keep the lights on, are usually considered positive to experienced investors

Rookie investors see them as negatives, but thats usually because most of the placings they experience are in dog muck companies who have fat cat salaries to pay and like to kick the can as far down the road as they can before they delist

Its antibody ignore me :-)

Haha, glad you cleared that up, I thought it was a lab based antigen test

Different ball park, sorry folks :')

Sounds like Antigen?
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/covid19-finally-an-elisa-emerges

Does say they have three tests, so maybe I got the defective one wrong! Would make sense as seems like they've been using the other one a lot more, possible they have both an antigen and a (defective) antibody test?

Yep (enjoy!)

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/abbott-laboratories-coronavirus-rapid-test/index.html

Abbott has promoted the ID NOW test as a "point-of-care" test, meaning doctor's offices or clinics can collect samples from patients using swabs and quickly test the samples without having to transport them to specialized labs.

They processed more than 200 samples of Covid-19 using five testing systems and found that ID NOW detected the virus in only 84.4% of the specimens, a spokesperson for the Ohio-based medical center told CNN.

- Looks like there are tons of issues with it, especially when you have to start going down the route of 'you're not doing it properly'

Was a lab based anti-gen test
Yep correct 15% defection, quite high for a company like Abbott

Brilliant work JCEP

*SIGH*

Why are the big boys selling?

Why dont you ask IP group, who went from 15% to below 3% the DAY BEFORE we announced the collaboration

These guys aren't punters, they also have percentages to hit, they are not going to risk X amount of years hitting say a 10% yield when they might be up 200% and have already, or have a good chance of hitting their targets for their clients

Also, when a large fund sells, they can't pick the top and bottom, they have sell over a specific timeframe, it can take weeks to get out of a share when you own more than 10% - they wouldn't have even been aware of today's news and would have been selling for at least a week

These funds are not PI's, once they've hit their targets they get out because that is imperative to their risk management

Just like IP group, they couldn't afford and had to get rid of the loss position - unfortunate for them but it's not a simple case of 'oh ill bottom draw it' for these large funds

Probably all of them