Member Info for GLR1990

Any idea on the commercials of the test kit?
Took a position yesterday

Thinking if the market is basically the population, thats 7.7 billion - if we all need to test say, once a week (saliva makes it easy, we could do it every time we go out) then say the average person uses 10 tests - we are looking at 707 billion test kits (I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out)

We are not going to supply every single person in the world of course, not saying that - but I like to base my investment on "is this viable if we can only attract 1% of the market" well 1% of that is 707 million, so even if its £1 a test kit, that makes this a three bagger from this level (at 50% margin) right away

Wonder if that quick drop there could finally be the end of the seller?

They did a placing last week!
Go through the RNS's

Unbelievable

Reason I invested here is you have a firm base of operations from the current technology, worth 20p
That part of the business is valued circa £35m
Now you have a partnership, with a huge major - developing not only a test kit (and an antigen one which is in more demand) but potentially a market leading test kit, which major advantages over the rest of the market
This side of the business, at current SP upside, is worth around £20m

So basically you are getting a potentially lucrative test-kit diagnostics business, for 20m

What's the share price of #NCYT again?

LSE knows what's coming

Fair value is actually 26p - I know that sounds like a huge ramp but if you go through our posts over the last couple of years you will see most of us have always had fair value (and our first slice point) at around 23-26p

Rationale, Talaxis paid $7m USD for a 25% stake in Songwe (and $1m USD for a stake in one of our subsidiaries) they then actioned a second tranche of money (another $7m USD) to take that stake to 49% - Valuing the single asset at the time of $28m USD

MKA was bordering on 11p but always had a warrant overhang which kept it back, we also recently got a TR1 at an average of 8p

The impact of CV19 has absolutely destroyed the MKA share price, taking it from a usual trading range of 7-10p down to sub 3p, levels only seen PRE the game changing Talaxis news

Not only is this company valued at a discount of around 1.75 CASH to MCAP ratio, but investments from larger companies have it valued at $28m USD

Mr Market thinks it is only worth £3.5m

Good find Scart
Also removes competitor doubt, because one company along (e.g. NCYT) couldn't possibly have the capacity to keep up with this demand
Its likely 30-40 companies wouldn't be able to keep up with that amount of testing

Quick one guys
$30 covers RRE costs + as mentioned profit per barrel of around $3
Does this mean they dont have to eat into the cash pile and can continue to add to it? Or are there other expenses to be concerned about?

If so this could do quite nicely

Anyone know what the margins on the kits are?

Beamer I took a position today
That's what made me invest - this company has performed well for the last few years, also the NHS orders of £4m is 50% of last years revenue, in a single month - not sure why that hasn't gone down well (since the SP is the same as it was before the orders)

Good margins, nice little operating profit last year and lots of cash

Sorry not a good start, £59m GBP in H1 2019/20 Doh!

Hello is anybody here?

Seems to be the forgotten share, wondering if anyone has any answers to my Q's below

I am going through the presentation, say's they made £59m GBP revenue last year, with an operating profit of £3.7 GBP (not bad for the current MCAP of £35m)

£38.7m of this came from shipbroking, which seesm to be there most profitable business segment (well it clearly is) which posted a profit of £4.9m GBP in 2019/20 H1 (13% margin, not great, anyway we move on)

34% of the above came from Tankers, and another 15% from Specialised tankers
It says revenue per head of £180K (is that what each tanker made?) - if so I have seen some quotes of tankers recently earning in 2-3 days what they usually earn in 3 months (seriously) - I admit I know little of this business but I am guessing they get a cut by providing tankers to logistics and so forth - and get daily rates / commission?

If so for this part of the business, they could have increased daily revenue by 10-20x+

Your input is welcome

The 'cash burn' is impossible to predict because it is used to conduct the feasibility study (7m USD of it I might add) in which they had 10m USD at the start of the study

At the end of the study, Talaxis make the decision on whether to fully fund the project for a 75% interest - the only cash burn is the BFS and obviously admin expenses (licenses etc. etc.) - if they shut down operations, then they wont be burning 5m USD per annum

Thanks Andy

I will leave out my view, but I can say it is completely different from that of TW

Back to the kits, I would presume they will manufacture for both the UK and international, even though NCYT does have a third party in Europe
The City-labs building is very impressive

Whats the Ethical issues around NIPT?

Put this one on the watch-list, balance sheet looks promising (last 12 months of growth) and only back to 14p which it was trading at pre-CV

Also teaming up with NCYT is a huge boost, since they only made $7m ~ last year, they could easily out-perform that alone on the manufacturing - any idea what they will get per test kit?

Rishi has announced loans of up-to £5m GBP with no interest for 6 months
Obviously that doesn't mean much for Israeli banks etc. but shows the direction, also with most of our costs in Shekel and our revenue in USD, USD to NIS is 3.74 which is around the same as 2018 levels, we made a loss of $320K in 2019 from a rate of 3.42 but did well in 2018 from an average of 3.78 - in summary what I am trying to say is our admin costs and existing bank facilities likely just got better by circa 10% overall

Martin Blair NED of KAPE

KAPE RNS Bank Facility announced today of $70m USD

He will be instrumental in getting us the best possible package IMO

(Obviously it wont be 70m USD!)

Someone just buy us out and get it over with - that sell just valued the company at 3.5m MCAP
Bosch if you are reading make an offer you will never get a cheaper price in my humble opinion

Funding news would be fantastic right now, would also allow us to weather the storm - we only posted 3m revenue in H1 2020 and 900K of that is SaaS, so that's likely not going to be impacted
I know we have growth forecasts of 8.4m in 2020, who know's if that will still remain however with partners like Cropx and Zero (who just released the SRS, and I have been informed it is now available in the UK - so no logistics issues there) we might be able to ride it out on top, all it would take is for a large partner (Bosch, Lokies, ICL, Cube, CropX, Zero) to make a large order to ensure they are 'stocked' if there is a logistics issue, and we will hit our target

Maybe there are some cost saving measures we can put in place in the meantime also, to mitigate any potential downgrade in forecast - an update would be nice but I dont expect every company to provide an update, however they may combine one with funding news in due course

Shame, if you sell on open you're likely to get a terrible deal, spread was 1.23-1.20 all of yesterday, but opened today at 1.1 to sell (as MM know any sell in the first 15 minutes is doing to be a desperation sell)