Member Info for GLR1990

There's not going to be a placing 4FS
They are using the government scheme in Israel, taking the pay cuts/freeze etc.
I think they've done pretty well tbh considering the circumstances, I thought this had already happened so had it priced in

Likely be a big panic sell but the MCAP is 2.5m and you can't take away contracts like the CropX, Cropmetrics, ZeroMC etc. which I already had down as being worth over the current MCAP

Sona is nearly $50 per test correct
https://www.technologynetworks.com/diagnostics/blog/coronavirus-and-the-need-to-go-beyond-testing-in-a-pandemic-333283

Quote
Phil Groom (PG): Bond is the digital partner in this consortium enabling data capture. Led by Bond’s Canadian partner Sona Nanotech, the consortium, which also includes GE Healthcare Life Sciences and the Native Antigen Company, is developing a rapid test for COVID-19.

This novel test is based on lateral flow technology and will be able to detect the virus even in small quantities in seemingly healthy people who are showing no symptoms. Giving results in 5-15 minutes, this rapid test will cost less than US $50 when ready.

- US planning on spending 15 billion per month
- AVCT now significantly ahead of the curve with a 4-5 week advancement
- Generating its own reagent "affirmer" which will be 90% more cost effective than the next best on the market
- That Affirmer technology NOW WORKS as per today's RNS
- US want to increase testing from phase 1 (2m per day) to 100m per day, they know and have stated this is only achievable through innovation, AVCT test allows this to become a reality

It probably is us :-)

Agree Gizzard my first purchase here at 31p was actually on the day of the test RNS
Opened at 35 - I knew everyone would sell as everyone is in profit, new ATH of course, then it dropped to 31 before rocketing to 46p on the day
Once the big boys get their books in order, there will be some serious serious buying here IMO
Expecting £200m MCAP to be tested today

redial is on speedial to his broker trying to get some shares

So the Affirmer technology was ahead of schedule and passed by FOUR WEEKS
Not only that, but a massive derisking factor, I was actually mulling yesterday if I had more cash, to possibly not go too heavy pre-affirmer approval, as that was the highest up my risk list

Not only that but one day after trump says we will have a test kit within 2 weeks that will 'blow your mind' - maybe it was AVCT after-all

I am extremely relaxed now, not only did I find out the US market is likely going to be over 100 billion yesterday in the next 12 months, but we now are way ahead of schedule for a test kit that may be ready in the next two weeks

Fantastic news, arguably one of the best RNS's I have ever been involved in as an investor, as it proves the technology works and allows us to move quickly to actually getting a test ready before even the lockdown ends - truly truly game changing

Well done everyone who held and added, without being scared out of your investment by some people on here

RK if that was the RNS then personally I would expect a 1-2 billion valuation, whether that happened on the day (very unlikely) or over the next few months

Remember, the US are planning on spending 15 billion USD per month on testing, that's 100 billion over 6 months - if we are one of the market leaders (if not the market leader) it's not out of the question to assume a large % of that will come our way, providing we can scale up and meet demand

And that's not a bad problem for a company to have

Worldwide that figure is likely to be more than 1 trillion - this is arguably going to be one of the biggest markets in the world

Not only that, but it would showcase and approve the affirmer technology on a global stage, AVCT for the last 6-7 years have been presenting this technology to clients and partners, if it truly is game changing, then they will be partnering with many other companies who will want to use the technology for a wide range of applications, not just test kits - hence the 1-2 billion valuation

this is all speculative of course, but when you invest you want major upside

"a core of megalabs around the country should be the rallying point for creating new capacity"
"A simple mega-lab should be able to handle more than 100,000 PCR test kits per day"

Page 43 paragraph 2

You know reading this report, I really can't predict that once we prove the affirmer technology, this wont be on the market very very quickly, ahead of expectations

https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Sorry I read your post wrong

Yes correct :-) they need to ramp everything up and personally only with devices such as what AVCT are proposing, can this be possible, otherwise logistically it is almost impossible

If you read the report its possible to get close to that currently, however that is why they state going from 2m to 100m requires innovation

States they have 30 mega labs in the USA which at full capacity, could produce 100K each per day I believe, that gets them to stage 2 - innovation

This is where companies such as AVCT step in and allow the public to do it themselves, in 10 minutes or less, with a saliva based POC rapid diagnostic kit, also using affirmers that are 90% less costly to manufacture and can be developed quicker and in larger supply than other reagents

Sheltie I understand your post about competition and agree there is room for a lot of competition, however I believe Roche is Antibody not Antigen - if this article is what you are referring to? So no competition to AVCT
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/roche-corona-virus-antibody-test-uk

Comek $15 billion per month is the market in the USA - with a population of 373m

By that ratio, the global market would be circa 25x higher, per month - although not everyone has the spending power of the USA! so lets be conservative...

Ah missed it, any good?

Also on page 42

"The cost for large-scale testing is projected to be roughly $15 billion per month (over the next year or more until
reliable treatments and vaccines are available), and would likely fall over time as technology progressed—compared
to an estimated cost of $100 to 350 billion for every month of continued collective quarantine. A ramp up to 5 million
tests per day and deployment of required information systems should be possible by late June"

15 billion a month, spent on testing - in the USA alone
Arguably, in July Aug Sep Oct - over 100 billion per month, will be spent on testing, globally - we could be looking at a trillion dollar market

1% of that is 10 billion, even at a 10% royalty, with the kit costing $1 - we would make 1 billion in free cash flow - with 1% of the global market...

This isn't a ramp, those are the figures the report suggests - are publishing and using as a guideline, could arguably be more than 100 billion a month, but if the US is spending 15 billion, then I am sure the rest of the world will likely take that north of 100 billion

The report also specifically mentions that innovation and saliva based testing POC is required

Suddenly £100m MCAP looks very, very cheap

Of course not investment advice and as always do your own research!

Guys if you haven't read this, I suggest you take 30 minutes of your day, arguably right now - to read it
https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Published yesterday and being used by the US Government

I will let you find out the numbers for yourself - and the importance of the AVCT test kit - and the size of the market

Spoiler - its much, much, much bigger than we all thought

Watch this video!
https://abcnews.go.com/US/road-map-recovery-report-20-million-coronavirus-tests/story?id=70230097

Article suggests will need 30 million tests per day in the USA to get over the virus

To quote the video from 3.30 minutes in

"one of the things they talk about is changing how the test is done, moving from a nasal swab to a spit/saliva based platform, this is going to be key to getting this to tens of millions of people'

Lot of delayed buys from yesterday, 50K and 40K clips - looks like we still have a large buy accumulating but obvious retail money is outweighing their purchases so here we are at 57p
Good to know someone with a lot more money than me is aggressively purchasing at this price

Really hope we are the company Trump has mentioned, 2 weeks fits in with the affirmer tech but we wont have a test ready in two weeks, so I am not sure

Regardless, if we can design the kit we are proposing, then the current MCAP will be long gone

This is the part I liked from that article (I read that this morning)

"potentially on the platforms of other partners with whom we are in active discussion, as soon as possible. We are aiming to have developed Affimer reagents for a COVID-19 test by the end of May that can be transferred to Cytiva and potentially to other global diagnostic manufacturers to implement in a test strip”

Key Notes:-
- potentially on the platforms of other partners with whom we are in active discussion
- potentially to other global diagnostic manufacturers to implement in a test strip

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/sports-pmn/report-pga-tour-plans-to-use-1-million-covid-19-test-kits

PGA tour plans to order 1m test kits

Note:
- “Daily tests will subsequently be undertaken by each individual in tournament week, with anyone returning a positive result asked to self-quarantine for 14 days.”

DAILY TESTS

Yes but multiple additional avenues not related to CV19 that can swamp current MCAP - however, of course, the CV19 kit is the near term angle

In Summary, we potentially have a
- Saliva Based Kit
- Our own Reagents that likely cost 90% less than any other reagent being used on the market
- POC (point of care) so no lab equipment needed, can be used across the world especially in developing countries
- As per above, cost effective - so developing countries can afford the kit
- Quick and fast - less than 10 minutes
- Huge partners (e.g GE) and I also presume we will do something with other partners from the past (E.g. Mologic)