Member Info for GLR1990

Competition, other players on the market, not having the best test in the world - none of it matters, all you need is the following
- Saliva Based
- POC AKA use anywhere
- Under 10 minutes

If you can make that a reality, then you're set - said before only need 1-2% of the market share to be looking at 5-10 billion in revenue, 10% royalty on that and there's a billion in cash flow

The more partners, manufacturers and players they sign up now, the larger that % share becomes - if this IS the best antigen POC test in the world, then you could be looking at (with the right partners) 5-10% of the market share, I personally believe it would be impossible to supply more than this, but happy to be proved wrong - again at this market share its not even worth doing the calculations, just summarise with BOOM

This is the worst attempt at a deramp I have ever come across in over 5 years of investing, period.

In2Win this is Antigen not Antibody

The Govt will need to utilise both tests for a successful exit to the lockdown

Antigen testing IMO will likely be 5-10x more than Antibody, as I hold #ODX, that is in no way a statement to say Antibody is not a good investment or lucrative market - but what it does suggest is that not one company can supply the whole world

I estimate the Antigen market to be north of $500 billion, hence why a company like GDR becomes attractive, should its test be suitable for the market (the Cytiva link up makes me believe it will be) #

Personally I wanted to know timeframes, as they are not clear to me, and the difference between the two tests as one looks to be lab based PCR and another looks to be more 'on the go' point of care

Hi everyone, what's the revenue forecasts here?
I have done some on my current shares #ODX and #AVCT and have been putting this one off ever since I turned down a quote at 25p, which frankly is just stupid and at £37m market cap, if they can product even 1-2m tests per day then revenue will exceed MCAP by a country mile, also love the Cytiva linked up

About six weeks ago, they said they was 8 weeks away from one of their test kits, is this the Cytiva one or is this a separate one, as the Cytiva RNS stated 5 weeks, which doesn't fit with the original timeline? Am I right in saying they have two kits, one that will be POC based and another that will be lab based?

Thanks,
GLR

Also - as per on the AVCT board

Do you get a lot of people coming on here talking about Antigen testing as a competitor? :-)

If I had a pound for every-time somebody compared an Antigen company to an Antibody company, id be retired

Didn't want to say the only antibody test and I wasn't 100% sure - I was 99% sure but not 100% :-)

Bought in on the dip yesterday
Should have took some at 30p when I first started research ODX but that's the way it goes, pretty much the only worthy antibody play on LSE/AIM as far as I can see
The 50m article which supposedly has been proven to be false, I dont believe is false, at the end of the day the UK will need to order one antibody test for at least every single person on this Island, so a 50m up front figure is absolutely spot on, with additional orders to come
There was a few reports suggesting that multiple tests would be required, especially in the laboratory, where the number of antibodies increases 2-3 weeks after first infection, the monitor the levels and get a better idea of when the 'peak resistance' is

I personally believe over 250-500m antibody tests will be carried out in the UK over the next six months - if they are shipping this internationally (which will be the case soon enough) then again you could be looking at a MCAP in the range of 100's of millions of pounds

GLA

Nice 5% rise today, or is it 10%? Who knows, maybe we will find out later when the delayed trades come through
If someone offered me 5% a day for the next 30 day's id happily retire in a month!
Don't underestimate the power of compound interest! :')

Is it saliva based?
Mentions a nasal swab, so guessing they need to perform the nasal swab, and then put the swab on the test kit
Awesome development, but not quite Avacta

We know Avacta are working with multiple other organisations not yet disclosed, but who could they be?

My first one would likely be Mologic, working on a rapid COV test a bit like the antibody one they have with SureScreen, yes you might say they are already doing this, but look at Cytiva and GDR - these companies aren't just going to stop at one, so I think with our history with Mologic, it would certainly make sense for them to develop the rapid antigen kit with Avacta's affimer technology

The second one has to be the bill gates foundation, we all know the potential of our kit, 10 minutes will be the new 1 hour and 1-2 minutes will be the market leader, think about it - you are trying to get into a football stadium, concert, or even on an aeroplane, is 10 minutes quick enough to get everybody on? Possibly, but 1-2 minutes requires less staff, less contact - which will then be the goal and so forth

If anyone has any other ideas of who we could be working with, join in the discussion

Agree

"With launch of both professional-use tests imminent, a home-use antibody detection kit, and a rapid point-of-need antigen-detection test to identify current infection also shouldn’t be far behind. “A home use test is under development and will be launched soon, as well antigen tests at point-of-need that are on track for June"

If I didnt expect it to be SureScreen i'd have AVCT nailed on for that Antigen Test

Sorry first two paragraphs are in reference to an ANTIBODY TEST not ANTIGEN - it later goes on to mention Antigen, but gives little detail about the price or method

Could we be working with Mologic or do you think that ship has sailed? I thought it was somebody called SureScreen so it might well have sailed

https://www.clinicalomics.com/topics/molecular-dx-topic/infectious-disease-diagnostics/mologic-readies-fast-inexpensive-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-uk/

This article suggests that the 10 minute antigen test would be available in June

Mologic is poised to start commercial-scale manufacture and rollout of both its laboratory ELISA, and low-cost—potentially £1 per test—lateral flow point-of-need coronavirus antibody tests, which could be available in the UK within weeks.

The point-of-need test uses lateral flow technology to detect IgG, IgM and IgA SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in blood, serum or plasma, within 10 minutes. (Mologic co-founder and CSO Paul Davis developed the Clearblue pregnancy test which, when launched in 1988, was world’s first commercial application of lateral flow technology.)

Antigen Testing

With launch of both professional-use tests imminent, a home-use antibody detection kit, and a rapid point-of-need antigen-detection test to identify current infection also shouldn’t be far behind. “A home use test is under development and will be launched soon, as well antigen tests at point-of-need that are on track for June,”

No details on what the Antigen cost will be, surescreens test uses blood not saliva, so not sure where they are getting the saliva based information from?

Bodes well for the morrow

The large trades on Friday, reported delayed - do MM's bundle trades together (and then declare later) or are they actually one individual trade?

Both Antibody and Antigen testing is required, and potentially multiple times in regards to Antibody - Antigen will likely have to be done on a daily basis early on, hence my estimation of over $500 billion dollar market for all testing

Benefits of Antigen
- Do you have the virus right now
- Saliva based, at home testing in minutes
- Allows people to visit family, go back to work, but more importantly leave the house knowing they dont have the virus, and have confidence others who are outside have already taken the test and are not infected - if people do not take it at home but at work for example, then at least we can implement social distancing until we get to work, where everyone is tested before they enter, thus giving confidence everybody in that workplace is not currently affected
- Will catch a ton of asymptomatic patients who are not currently being tested due to no symptoms

Benefits of Antibody
- Have you already had the virus, and if so, are you now immune or are you in a 'peak' range of immunity
- If you did already have the virus, when did you have it and who have you potentially infected (AKA track and trace)
- If immunity is generated for say 1-2 years, then immunity passports can be released for a specific time frame, people with immunity passports would likely not require any further antigen testing or antibody testing of course and could travel as they please (providing no longer contagious and cannot be reinfected)

Of course, that is assuming that everyone who has the virus develops detectable antibodies, cannot be reinfected and has immunity

Even if we could become reinfected, there would possibly be a peak range where for say a period of time, we may not be able to become reinfected AKA a bit like a flu vaccine "the effects of the vaccine generally only last through one flu season, which is about six months long. That's part of the reason you need one every year." once you have had the virus, you may be issued a passport for say 3 months, or six months etc.

I am totally speculating and have no medical background, so please dont take this as gospel or investment advice

Personally feel we will fly over £1 before close, 48 hours is a long time in this business
Can't see anyone being out, especially when we have the potential to be worth billions, I mean 90-95-£1 we are talking 10-20m MCAP differences, nothing in the grand scheme of things

Real shame a lot of trolls saying on here yesterday we might drop to 50-40p today, when in actual fact we are now double/almost double their predictions

You should never give out investment advice, especially bad investment advice

Is dropping to the 70s the new 50's now?
Brilliant
Soon dropping to £1 will be the new disaster :-)

typo* if they can capture 1% of a half a trillion dollar market,

£10 at after today's share issue would be circa 13x return
To get to that level, AVCT would likely have to generate a significant amount of revenue in a short space of time
The US market is $15 billion per month, the global market likely many multiples of that
As we have seen today, saliva based POC testing will likely make up around 90%+ of this market (meaning for every 1 laboratory test, you will likely see 10 saliva based tests in the 'working economy')
With those figures, lets assume the market is $100 billion per month, personally I predict higher in the initial months, with a downtrend as time progresses / treatments improve , but ultimately, over the next 6-12 months, I expect the total spend on testing to be between $500 and 1 trillion USD, worldwide
At a 10% royalty (assuming the royalty is 10%, it could be higher or lower, but IMO wont be any lower than 5%) Cytiva would have to capture around 1% of the global market, to make circa $5-10 billion in revenue, their parent company Danaher is worth over 90 billion, so this is something that will significantly appeal to then, but they wont be falling off their chairs as we may do when you realise that 10% of that is circa $500 million to 1 billion USD in revenue to AVCT - and this is just from one partnership, as mentioned, we are in active discussions with other partners and other types of diagnostics

Of course at £160m MCAP, if #AVCT was to bring in 500-1000m in revenue, over the next 6-12 months, then the share price would more than likely trade in the 5-10 billion region, unless they had been bought out beforehand - which would actually be a return of £25-50 share price, or a 65x return

Please dont take this as Gospel and investment advice, the figures I am mentioning are highly speculative and require a large number of factors to go AVCT way, including being able to ramp up production of both the affimers and scale up for demand of the test kits and additional diagnostic products

But at the same time, I do also mention that this is achievable if they can capture 1% of a half a billion dollar market, at 10% royalty - so there is room for them to potentially out-do, even my ridiculously high ceiling

Do I expect this to happen? I honestly dont know, it sounds crazy, but the fact it CAN happen is what almost leaves me baffled, that it can actually happen, and there are figures to support it