Member Info for GLR1990

I've added on the dip today (not advice, please DYOR)
I have a bit more and will add should it go nearer placing price, which will put me in the same boat as a significant strategic US investor, inclusive of circa £48m other investors
If you are of the opinion this 'significant, strategic US investor' has not done their DD, then fair enough - although if like me you see significant upside to the current MCAP (which is now circa 18% cash, full funding all of their projects for at least the next 2 years)
There are numerous similar players who have been bought out for 5-10x+ out current market cap, working on similar projects with similar discoveries
Quidel added 2 billion to its market cap on FDA approval, VIR received a $250m investment from AZK for its CV-19 potential (blocking the Ace2 receptor like the affimers can do)
Pfizer paid 10m+ for a company working on KRAS (recently discussed that affirmers can target the protein)

As mentioned much more than CV19, however in the short term that's going to be a catalyst, hopefully news this week on the test and its good news

What a ridiculous post

I am simply looking forward to news, if the test achieves high sensitivity/specificity then our cash position come year end will be in the 100's of millions, will be truly game changing, we've all seen the data on these affimers, its not a 'con' it's a real game changing technology and like the future of therapeutics, if they can use the cash to prove this further then those billion dollar MCAPS await on the american exchange

Closed already? Wow

LB couple of reasons, very good one listed by wolves below I will repost

'because applying for the placing shares is by no means guaranteed. Huge % of them will be sold to insto's and "friends".
If it is over subscribed (i think it will be), many will miss out on the placing.'

I would also add, with GDR - most investors only got 33% of what they asked for, I presume AVCT will be similar and hopefully massively over-subbed, it may not be of course

So lets say you sell 10,000 shares now at £1.40 because you think you can get 10,000 at £1.20, but at the same time you risk not being allocated 100%, lets say you only get 33% like GDR, or even worse you don't get anything, and the share price is now £1.50/£1.60+ - surely if you are buying at £1.20 you are expecting the share price to go above £1.60+ otherwise whats the point, thats the risk in selling now and trying to get cheaper, and hence why people are happy to pay £1.40+ because ultimately, it is only a 10-15% premium from the placing, and a huge discount from where we was last week! :-)

Well, the cat is out of the bag, Sir Al lied to us in the presentation/AGM but ultimately, he couldn't refuse £45m and who can blame him, they shouldn't put the cancer therapeutics on the back burner whilst they focus on near term CV19 revenue and ultimately, you can't be a billion dollar MCAP with £5m in the bank, that's just ludicrous - this gives them the capital they need to really accelerate the affimer platforms and diagnostic divisions, am I happy? Certainly not but had I been a wiser investor I would have spotted this and took advantage. Am I relaxed about it, of course, also it stops the selling below £1.20 (hopefully! this is AIM so who knows) - again there is much news-flow to come and since they raised £45m it is clear to see that the wider market is very happy to pay at this price, just a shame about the few of us who paid higher (like me, a lot of times this week)

To all those that shouted placing on here, well done you was right!

Anyway, lets look at reasons why we can get back to £2+, because at the end of the day that's what everyone now wants that we are aligned and those 'derampers' have got their asking price (I say derampers as a joke) if you're now on board, welcome and good luck!

GLA

My 2 cents after investing in the terrible world of AIM for 5 years - nothing is EVER what it seems (hence why you top slice, but secondly why you try and not sell at the bottom - in fact, don't invest with emotion, fear and greed are the two biggest profit killers, fear at the bottom, greed at the top)

Why has AVCT dropped?

The Negative Rumour reasons
- Placing rumors
- Test isn't highly sensitive /specific

The Corrupt world of Aim Reason
- Delayed the update to spook the market and allow 'mates rates' for those in the know, get a bunch of idiots to spread placing rumours (or any of the above in my first points) then the big boys start buying (quick rise back to 1.50/1.60 would signal this)

The nice fantasy land of AIM
- Profit taking
- Moving into other markets

Take your pick!

https://twitter.com/glr_1990/status/1268138542720483329

Sorry PL75 didn't mean that post to come across as a disagreement to your statement, was unsure if you understood that little to no cases = huge demand for mass screening, which you clearly do - so I will end with, agreed!!! :-)

PL75 the logic is around MASS testing, AKA screening the entire population

Argument against AVCT - numbers are decreasing so we no longer need as many tests
Argument for AVCT - in the case of Wuhan, experts argued the best time to mass test a population was when infections are very low prevalence, so you can be sure that by the time the testing is done, the cases have not risen elsewhere/spread of infection messes with your data

I am saying, that in terms of testing, this is still very much the beginning, and the major orders (10-50m+) are coming - with evidence and reason to support that logic

Hmm interesting, never really thought of it that way
If I get a cold/flu in the winter, id certainly be ordering one of these test kits, although really nobody should go out with the flu anyway, not like its acceptable to give it to somebody else :-)
I wonder if our mentality will change to other viruses, I know a lot of people go to work with the cold, the flu (they have to for money) I've been served by many people with flu like symptoms in the past and always been a little cautious but mostly just 'got on with it' - that certainly wont ever be happening again!
Most interesting

Re-post as is now on Page 3 and just making sure nobody has missed the absolute game changer of this quote

But with confirmed, symptomatic infections remaining in the single digits in Wuhan, some experts said the scale of Wuhan’s campaign was excessive. Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said it would be impossible to accurately test that many people in such a short period

Just one more time 'Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said it would be impossible to accurately test that many people in such a short period'

Step in AVCT

Bow String 1

https://twitter.com/glr_1990/status/1268090871179874304

I decided to try and summarise some recent research with a quick and easy digestion around the Cytiva/AVCT collaboration - I used the recent example in Wuhan to show why AVCT could easily receive orders in the 10's of millions from individual governments

I did also come across something interesting, its on the tweet above - to quote "it works only in places where there is a low prevalence of infections'

This is super interesting because as everyone see's the current rate of infection drop, investors quickly think that the pandemic is over and there is no need for testing, however it is at THAT point that we actually require mass testing, because mass testing can be used to screen the population when the rate of infection is very low to conclude that it either no longer exists, find every remaining asymptomatic case, and finally wipe it out - this could be done say once a week, or a month, to ensure that until we find a vaccine or cure, the virus is pretty much extinct (or controlled)

This new piece of info has really changed my view on the POC home based testing market, no wonder they state demand could be for years, because this actually proves why - if there are only a few infections, that's the best time to mass screen the population, not when there are loads, because your data will change very quickly

In light of this, I am now more relaxed with AVCT bringing the test out mid summer, versus rushing it out and getting it wrong or having to go back and do more work - the sooner the better of course as this will save lives, but in terms of mass screening populations, that will come when cases are very low IMO

GLA

Bow String 1

https://twitter.com/glr_1990/status/1268090871179874304

I decided to try and summarise some recent research with a quick and easy digestion around the Cytiva/AVCT collaboration - I used the recent example in Wuhan to show why AVCT could easily receive orders in the 10's of millions from individual governments

I did also come across something interesting, its on the tweet above - to quote "it works only in places where there is a low prevalence of infections'

This is super interesting because as everyone see's the current rate of infection drop, investors quickly think that the pandemic is over and there is no need for testing, however it is at THAT point that we actually require mass testing, because mass testing can be used to screen the population when the rate of infection is very low to conclude that it either no longer exists, find every remaining asymptomatic case, and finally wipe it out - this could be done say once a week, or a month, to ensure that until we find a vaccine or cure, the virus is pretty much extinct (or controlled)

This new piece of info has really changed my view on the POC home based testing market, no wonder they state demand could be for years, because this actually proves why - if there are only a few infections, that's the best time to mass screen the population, not when there are loads, because your data will change very quickly

In light of this, I am now more relaxed with AVCT bringing the test out mid summer, versus rushing it out and getting it wrong or having to go back and do more work - the sooner the better of course as this will save lives, but in terms of mass screening populations, that will come when cases are very low IMO

GLA

I'll go for £2-2.50 by w/e
£3+ June 26th - anticipation of sales with pre-orders booked

**Should have added

- But this isn't the only string to the AVCT bow, and likely in 12 months time wont be the reason they get bought out (That will be the Precision technology IMO)

Fine, give it an extra 5.8%?
Don't get me wrong I am not happy with it, but I wouldn't refer to a 25.8% drop at the very top of a spike (not closing price) as 'tanking' or a 'proper dive' - especially given the circumstances preceding the drop

I also wouldn't speculate that there has to be a 'serious reason'

#NCYT has dropped from 540p if we are counting the spike, to 300p - That's a 55% drop

#GDR has dropped from £3 to £1.50 - again a ~50% drop

#AVCT isn't doing so bad if we are comparing drops from the ATH, I wouldn't say there is a serious reason - people simply expecting an RNS and now getting spooked because it hasn't arrived

This is a gamble don't get me wrong, if the prototype doesn't achieve high specificity / sensitivity

The key will be the specificity/sensitivity
Anything over 98% according to FIND can be used to screen mass populations confidently
If AVCT LFD has over 98% this market cap is long long gone

It's down 20% from the high
Not exactly tanking, especially when it had risen over 700% pretty steadily!

Hi RB40

That is true the interview stated a 'few weeks' to me that is 3 weeks approx, which is today, so expecting some news hopefully this week however Cytiva do have their finger in a lot of pies (GDR for example, and Sonananotech) Not sure on their resource, they are huge after all but I wouldn't be too surprised with a short delay given the importance of the projects(s)

The BAMS test however should not be delayed hopefully and we should get some news about that I am hoping again this week

How quick investors are to forget that the timescale for developing the affimers was End of May, although some may think we are experiencing a short delay, we are actually WAY ahead of schedule

You have to ask yourself the Q what would happen to the SP if one of the following happened tomorrow

1. Test with Adeptrix over 98% sensitive /specific and, large manufacturers signed up (Waters etc.) and commercial revenues to begin second half of June

2. Test with Cytiva over 98% sensitive / specific prototype, looking for validation in the next 3-6 weeks from the WHO, CE and FDA-EUA

3. Investment from GSK / AZK to develop an affimer based CV-19 treatment that involves blocking access to human cells via the ACE2 receptor

All three are a possibility, i'd be very happy with one this week!

Got some on the way down this week and last 179 169 and now 152 - didn't expect it to drop this far, especially since SONA is moving upwards, their MCAP is almost ahead of ours now (CSX:SONA)

An update is due but it is not exactly delayed, I still expect something this week or very early next week, the risk is the sensitivity/specificity but I have to go on trust in the CEO, he has stated they have done all this before and the affimers are more effective than the common re-agents, so with that being said I have added more

Not advice DYOR