Member Info for GLR1990

This isn't the LFD RNS, as in THE rns, this is just an RNS to say everything is looking promising with the clinical data
What's going on with the BAMS test?
The big LFD RNS would be one that confirms the actual specificity/sensitivity against live samples, and if thats over 95% then the share price should, arguably, for lack of a better word, rocket

ALL IMHO of course

Issues with PCR testing, aside from the costs and speed etc. is that when RPOC testing comes along (like the AVCT test for example, whether AVCT make it or not is irrelevant, whoever makes it first) then will that place PCR testing, or will it increase PCR testing?

Example

Mass Screening Population Pools - outbreak in the NE, UK GOVT screens a big sample of the population close to the outbreak
Rapid Antigen Saliva based test to 100,000 people
2% positive
2000 people then go to a clinic and take a PCR based test which has the highest sensitivity/spec to confirm

Now you could argue, that in the current situation, only 2000 people would be tested anyway, or maybe only 1000 people would be tested because they would be the only ones with symptoms (if 50% is asymptomatic), so in a way the AVCT test could potentially increase the need for PCR testing if it finds more positives that need confirming

However, to keep numbers low, you need to keep conducting these population screens, so again lets say there is an outbreak in a factory in SE, you screen the surrounding area say 50,000 AVCT tests, but only 100 come back positive, in this scenario because cases are low, PCR testing is not being use to detect asymptomatic cases, but to confirm - so the AVCT test continues its high demand, but the PCR testing as cases come down, does reduce in demand

I may be talking a load of hogwash but its something I have been weighing when looking at PCR testing and of course BAMS testing

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-home-test-kits-results-void-a9581746.html

But new statistics released by the Department of Health and Social Care show that 39 per cent of kits are not being sent back, with a further 4.8 per cent of those – 9,761 – returned void.

It means that over 4 in 10 of the home testing kits are not actually providing results, a total of around 42 per cent.

Public Health England told a parliamentary committee last month that "certainly more than half" were being returned.

Officials say tests may be returned void because they either have not been used, sent back without a barcode label, or with the sample container's lid not screwed on properly. They say there have also been occasions in which the sample provided cannot be processed.

The figures, the latest of which related to 25 May 2020, show that 3.6 per cent of home test kits received a positive result and 91.6 per cent received a negative result, with 4.8 per cent void.

“It is essential for everyone who orders a test to use it and return it to the lab in a timely manner to help control the virus and save lives.”

If AWCT nail this test then... all bets are off, although my prediction of £3 by June 26th is looking way off! Come on Sir Al release those positive sensitivity results!

How do you watch it? Says live now but no button or anything to watch or view?

What happened to the 80p brigade?

"I have made it clear that we intend to partner the SARS-COV-2 spike protein Affimer reagents with several select companies to support antigen test development on multiple diagnostic test platforms. This will contribute most effectively to the urgent need to increase antigen testing capacity globally and maximise the commercial return to Avacta. Adeptrix is one example of this and other discussions are underway"

1st May RNS

Been 6 weeks, I wonder if we still have other tests in discussion, and if so, how they are doing?

Morning O+W

Good post and I am a fan of GDR, I should have pointed that out, their margins at ~60% are enticing and, they do have a much better test than 6-7 of their competitors, with less steps (both testing and pipetting) - yes I did watch the presentation on Friday :-)

I had a feeling that may come across as a subtle deramp, so retract the comparison to GDR - and agree a malaria test, among others, could be in the GDR pipeline in the future - if any of the antigen companies announced this, I would not hesitate to take a position, it is a huge market

However, as you know, I was pointing out the potential of funding the affimer platform and treatments which could lead to multi-million dollar recurring revenue streams in future, as they say, you have to start somewhere

Good luck with GDR, if I do branch into another 'antigen' test, it would be GDR or $SONA on the CSX

I was in NCYT but was dissapointed at the May figures, so sold ~3.40p - I may actually revisit that at some stage as the current MCAP of around £168m is also looking attractive again, for what it's worth, if the market is as big as we all think it is, then GDR NCYT AVCT and SONA will all do very, very well over the next 2-3 months+

NCYT do have some new products coming out on the market this month as well - will be interesting to see how all four perform, for now my focus is as always on AVCT (and indirectly SONA) as per the presentation next week, in which I will hopefully get a few questions answered!

What’s most interesting from the presentation if you watch it back is AS says they had been in contact with Ruane for 9 months

Which makes it clear that Ruane have come on board from doing DD on the affimer platform (PreCision etc.) also £35m of the placing has gone towards accelerating the therapeutics business ASAP versus only £10m for the diagnostics division, this tells me that the £48m raised was not because we have a lucrative CV19 test And we have decidded to try a smash and grab, but the investors had been Really impressed and more focussed on the treatment side of the business - again, the CV19 play is a side task and even if we make $150m UsD from it (that’s around 10m unit sales) We will be able to fully fund multiple affirmer based drug trials and treatments, side by side, thus drastically increasing the market cap

I think Ruane and whoever else invested in that first major chunk, know exactly how a little revenue can go a long way in Pharma, remember CV19 revenue needs to be put to good use funding potential future licensee deals for chemotherapy etc. This is where GDR NCYT etc fall short, because there revenue will support the share price, but it won’t fund an existing platform that compared to peers could be worth many billions, this is what excites me the most about Avacta, that even $150m in revenue, will fully fund so many different treatment trials, and since affimers can be used across a wide range of potential treatments, the sky really is the limit - is also like to see us branch out the diagnostic division and maybe look into creating a world leading Malaria test, which is of great importance in many countries in the world

Milcait going to add to your list for a bit of fun

BAMS Test Prototype ready (done)
BAMS Test Senstivity / Sepcificity Performance Results
LFD Test Prototype
LFD Test Sensitivity / Specificity Perfomance Results
BAMS Manufacturing partners signed up (Shimadzu, Waters, Agilent)
CE Mark for BAMS Test
CE Mark for LFD Test
FDA Approval in US for LFD Test
FDS Approval in US for BAMS Test
Manufacturing scale up/readiness
Govt contracts (UK and possibly US first)
B2B sales pipeline - Pre-orders for the BAMS and LFD device tests
Consumer sales (medusa) pipeline - expected pipeline of B2C sales and pre-orders/interest on the website
Partner for the ACE2 blocking Affimer technology, to develop this further
IND application for AVA6000
Potentially other 'Tests' as alluded to in multiple RNS statements, a Malaria one would be interesting but this is absolute speculation and I dont expect one anytime soon

People need to stop getting bogged down on the time frames, if it was July would you be happy to pay £1.20 a share?

The UK rushed into antibody tests, got it wrong, lost a fortune (£20m or something was it?)

AS said clearly last night, that they wouldn't be doing this unless they thought they would end up with a world leading 'best in class' antigen test, and they are not going to rush it or cut corners - he also said that he is very confident in the data they have that the specificity and sensitivity would be in the target range (so I am guessing over 98%)
He also said that putting in place large scale manufacturers, and ramping up to millions of tests per month (100's of millions was the quote, but that is the total market I would presume, not what AVCT will make otherwise the MCAP would be north of $5 billion) usually takes a year, or at least many many months, their partners and those in discussions are up for the challenge of doing this in a matter of weeks
IMO this can't be replicated easily, as much as people may be annoyed the SP has dropped from £2 to £1.20, nobody else will be able to step in and produce a better test starting from today, as we already have 2 months on them - and we have a huge advantage in a big partner in Cytiva and affimers, which have easy tech transfer and are cost effective to produce, and can also be mass produced
The UK GOVT is aware of the test, the US likely is aware of the test, they want this released just as quick as we do, if you can hold and ignore the volatility until Mid July...
We only need to sell 100m tests and that would bank us at least $1.5bn in revenue, even if only 10% of that is converted to cash (after costs, royalty share etc.) we are fully funded to complete multiple treatment trials in parallel for the next 3-5 years

Is it really THE Greg Alexander from Ruane?

But secondly, there is another great investor at Ruane, and that is Greg Alexander. Those who attend the Sequoia annual meetings see Greg, because he is regularly introduced, even though he is a separate profit center at Ruane and he and his team have nothing to do with Sequoia Fund. However, Bruce Greenwald of Columbia, in a Value Walk interview in June of 2010 said Buffett had indicated there were three people he would like to have manage his money after he died (this was before the index fund comment). One of them was Seth Klarman at Baupost. Li Lu who manages Charlie Munger’s money was a second, and Greg Alexander at Ruane was the third. Greg has been at Ruane since 1985 and his partnerships have been unique

https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2015/11/the-price-of-everything-and-the-value-of-nothing/

NCYT is doing well, but PCR testing is simply too slow, and once these faster methods come on the market, the demand for PCR testing will go down, THAT IS NOT to say there won't still be much revenue to be made, I expect NCYT and GDR to both make a good amount, just like I expect AVCT to make a decent chunk from the BAMS test (which can do more than PCR testing but that's not the point I am trying to make)

In short
PCR testing - requires medical staff, a laboratory, and results take too long, not ideal for mass screening of the population (it took Wuhan 3 weeks to screen 11m people)

RAPID POC testing - No medical staff required, can do it yourself/at home, can be done in minutes and can also be done anywhere, not to mention using saliva and not a Nasal Swab

Price wise, about the same PCR is costing governements around £8-10 per test, #AVCT want $15 for large orders, slight premium but they will save all than and more reducing the need for medical staff and laboratories etc.

This is not to say I dont like NCYT and GDR! NCYT is developing new tests, GDR has Cytiva on board, there is room for everyone to do well, but lets not be silly and expect PCR testing to be the 'market leader' or in demand when these other tests come on the market

Absolutely incredible find, many thanks
What an brilliant webinar that will be, especially being joined by $SONA (SonaNanoTech)
Looks like the LFD works as planned, next step will be proving the sensitivity/specificity which is always the big one, then comes FDA approval

One step closer to the BOOM!

Has anybody signed up to watch it?

Would be good to know what the plan is surrounding antigen testing

Good Morning all

Placing shares hit the market today, as suspected most of them, however many, forward sold

US Investor? Was we expecting a TR1 today, or would this now be admitted once the US investor received their shares, so expect to see one in the coming sessions?

2x Presentations tomorrow, 2.00pm and 6.00pm, I strongly advise you watch as the last one was incredible

In terms of FDA approval, would we expect this to be an intraday RNS? I would presume so, regardless I dont expect this until the end of June/Early July but would be fantastic if it was an intraday RNS vs 7am

And don't forget, we are looking to FDA approve two tests, not one.

Greedo please go back to your hive on that dastardly planet tattoine, the only ship that has sailed is the one you should have got out of Mos Espa, never a more putrid hive of scum and villainy

:-)

I do hope people get the reference, probably nobody under 30

We have two big presentations coming up on Thursday, also hopefully tomorrow we find out who the US investor is, and if its Bill Gates then we are all going to be happy

FWIW I certainly dont think it is Bill Gates, but I'd be super happy with a large well known pharma, maybe a future manufacturer or partner for a future treatment

Strategic investor means working together towards a common goal, this isn't someone who has put money in to just make money, they are on board to create or develop something

The 152's etc. will likely all be sells however that 1.44 was after hours which suggests to me it is a buy, but happy to be corrected, as I am hoping it is a buy so significantly biased

RK please throw PFIZER in the mix for the reason below

https://cen.acs.org/articles/97/web/2019/06/Pfizer-buy-Array-106-billion.html

Recently announced on twitter (by a scientist working with affimers) that they found an affimer that can target the KRAS pocket/protein, the 'holy grail' as described in this thread https://twitter.com/Tomlinson_lab/status/1268936665709633540

Quote from the article:-
"Pfizer will pay roughly $10.6 billion in cash to acquire Array BioPharma, a Boulder, Colorado-based biotech firm with a knack for designing small molecules that target highly specific cancer mutations"

***Pfizer paid 10 billion not million!