Member Info for GLR1990

Reading through the recent RNS and WP's
Have we begun analysing the LIVE VIRUS or for POC are we using a mimic?

PL75 absolutely, I totally forgot we partnered with Aptamer early on - I have read up on Aptamers, they appear to be extremely specific, of course how well they work in the field/on a test is a different matter, under different environments but they do appear to be at least a very suitable candidate for a highly specific test

"The preview of the results suggested that it may be able to determine viral load which would be amazing, a fast result along with an indication of where you are in the cycle would be very valuable for isolation" - Extremely important and very exciting, when I took a position here - yes there is downside, but I feel it is only 50% where if they do have a test that is not only sensitive, specific, fast and can be modified to detect infectiousness/viral load, then the upside truly could be 500-1000% (that's not a ramp, there is absolutely no reason if this test has advantages over the current market why the market cap would not be at least £50m GBP, partners will come on board and the UK GOVT will trial it)

Of course with Awacta, AS has said 'infectiousness' and 'infected' many times so we may have a test there than can detect infected, and not cross react with other flu(s) - LFD still the money maker, but Awacta is £450m this is £11m so I can invest here with targets of £30-50m revenue baseline and be comfortable, with Awacta I need to ensure the company can generate revenue north of £500m-£1bn (which I do expect if the LFD is highly Se/Sp)

I think whoever nails this next challenge (infectiousness) will receive unprecedented investment

No offense but a successful POC for a 100% owned 11m MCAP company, I do not think the SP is going to 50p, especially if they can give us a timeline of having a test say by Y/E and if the test had advantages over PCR

GDR is currently valued at £69m - they haven't sold a bean (maybe £1m) they do have a test and they do have very good partners in Beckman and Cytiva - but it all starts with having a competitive test, everything else falls into place later

Does anyone know exactly how the test works, and I mean precisely each step?

I know a decent enough amount to invest, but I am comparing it to RT-pCR and wondering

1. Do we need to ensure the viral RNA is converted to a DNA copy, and that single copy is then converted into millions of copies so it can be easily detected? I feel this could be giving out positives where the subject is not infectious, how are we measuring the viral load/infectiousness if we are multiplying the copy for detection, unless this is the first part to confirm positive and then a second test to confirm infectiousness, but I dont think that is happening?

2. If SARS-CoV-2 complementary DNA is present in the sample, the primers can copy the targeted regions. As they copy these regions, probes stuck to these new fragments release a visual signal that can be read by the instrument used in this process. This is how it happens in PCR

The millions of copies amplify this signal so it can be easily detected as a positive result. If the virus is not present, the probes do not stick, there is no signal release and it is a negative result - again AMPLIFY to detect a positive result, but what if the viral load is very small and the person is positive but not infectious, can our test potentially be used to find INFECTIOUS and not just positives?

Bought three lots today, been waiting for something of considerable value to appear since HZM traded around 4.2p for a couple of days (similar to today with NCYT, up 20% then trending down, settled for a few days then rose the week later)

Todays contract vs MCAP
- £150m guaranteed MINIMUM
- Potential for another £100m in 14 weeks time
- Potential for an additional £250m+ IF Phase 2 Testing is required
- UK contract/one client

You are now looking at an EBIDTA by Y/E of ~£150m GBP minimum, what a payload that is going into January - May, Peak cold and flu season where Winterplex system will be of paramount importance

Surprised at the lack of press, but would not be surprised to now see other countries such as the USA, France and India roll out the Winterplex system - it's first initial order is for £150m GBP and the MCAP of the company stays around £360m?

This is insane value, full expect £7+ in the coming weeks
Not investment advice
GLA

I am going for a buy
Share price was below that for a good few hours yesterday PM lots of sells in the 152-154 range, I dont think you get 154.9 off for £1m in that time frame, may be wrong but feels like a buy to me paid for by todays early drop

Hi 111112

There are a lot of vaccines in P3 right now (Phase 3 human trials, this is the last phase in which you test safety before gaining approval and rollout) as of yet, no vaccine has passed P3 (aside from a Russian one, but even news on that seems to have gone cold lately)
Trump says US may have a vaccine in a few weeks, again, would need to see the data on this, the AZK (astrazeneca) vaccine recently had a patient that was very sick, I am unsure on the total numbers in the trial but it was not 30,000 which they are targetting the next part of the trial, regardless when dealing with a global vaccine even 1 error per 10000 is pretty dangerous, that could result in 7 billion / 10K = 700,000 patients with severe side effects on a global rollout, also how often do we need to get the vaccine? Once a year, twice a year, and is it a single dose or double dose, if its a double dose vaccine that brings on more logistical issues

Then once you have a vaccine you have manufacture and distribute it correctly, it is widely known and reported that upto 50% of vaccines can become ineffective during transportation (WHO https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/the-biggest-hurdle-to-universal-vaccination-might-just-be-a-fridge)

Lets take India for example, they have a population of 1.3 billion, so a good place to start
They suggest that on their data, the first doses may not be available until late Q1 2020
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/shots-will-reach-most-only-in-late-2021-say-experts/articleshow/78137842.cms
However it could also take a minimum of 18-24 months to vaccinate their entire population

So, if we have a perfect vaccine with no side effects
We have a fantastic supply and distribution in place where the vaccines are not lost during transportation due to cold storage etc.
We also have a single dose vs double dose, otherwise part 2 becomes twice as difficult
And even if we get a vaccine in the next 3 weeks
It will likely, still take more than 12 months, if not 24 months, before the entire global population gets their hands on it
Unfortunately... I am more than happy to be wrong here but this is based on the evidence I have read and the links above

I personally feel this is for an acquisition or merger, more likely the former
Could be a placing, but IMO they have ~£50m cash, so a placing would be quite interesting as it would be a very large % of the company and for a huge cash sum, and almost certainly significantly beneficial to the company - personally going to rule this out as it just seems something that doesn't need to happen
So that leaves merger or acquisition, which IMO is the reason they have brought Numis on board
Q is who would NCYT merge with? Acquisitions may be a little easier to predict
A lot of private companies will be looking to raise capital as in this market you simply cannot wait 3-6 months to 'earn' money and then expand, you need to do it now, thats manufacturers and suppliers, so could be interesting if they took a stake in a manufacturer, or bought one out, for capacity and revenue, or exclusivity
or a larger player buys out NCYT and merges for the technology
I am betting on Acquisition, although a merger would probably be very lucrative to the SP

#AVCT LFD test you could potentially get 1333 tests, at the price of $15 per test
Not to mention you surely need someone to operate the machine, replacing the cartridges?
And the cost of a paperback book, actually if you google it, the average cost in the US is between $13-17, more expensive that the Avacta test at the higher end

It's great, but it's not quite Avacta...

What do you mean the moon is about 3500KM across?

Its about 2cm, 3cm at best haven't you looked up at the sky on a clear night?

MARS! :')

What a ridiculous idea

Sorry yes, I meant "logo" - however if a log is more symbolic in any way (or cheaper, if you could somehow create a log rocket and just leave that up there) then feel free to push the log idea

Might sound like a stupid idea, but hear me out

...

How much would it cost to get the Avacta log imprinted on the Moon?

Be good for brand awareness and ties in with Operation Moonshot?

Discuss?

reports now suggest that 'millions of influenza tests will be required this season' as a follow up to negative CV19 Antigen tests - multiplex systems are already in place to detect CV19, FLU A FLU B and RSV however, as of yet of course nobody can do this on a rapid antigen test

I wonder if #AVCT are planning on combining the two to give them, what would be clear daylight at the front of the market, or if they are simply just making a secondary influenza test to package alongside the CV19 antigen test?

Reasoning below:-

AVCT registered the trademark AffiDX as posted recently here (great find)
https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmcase/page/Results/1/UK00003519801

Under the classes registered it clearly states
'diagnostic reagents all for the detection and diagnosis of Covid-19 and influenza'
'mobile application software for the collection, analysis and reporting of diagnostic tests for Covid-19 and influenza'
'medical testing apparatus, instruments and equipment for the detection and diagnosis of Covid-19 and influenza'
'diagnostic testing and analysis services for Covid-19 and influenza; medical testing and analysis services for Covid-19 and influenza'

Just to state the obvious, SARS-COV-2 is a strain of Coronavirus, so there is absolutely no requirement to state Influenza unless you are also developing an influenza test, so personally I am extremely confident we are also creating an influenza test and this will be announced shortly

The goldmine however, would be if we can combine both on the same LFD antigen test - that would be even more of a game changer than the test in its proposed format!

Sorry just pointing out some mistakes with Iphone traders post for anyone who may be interested in taking a position in ODX, I dont think its a bad investment but more risky than #AVCT IMO

ODX have 5 different tests and capacity for all **No they dont they have maximum capacity for 8m tests and that will be by the end of the year, they have capacity for 100K/200K per week in October, even at £1 per test that is buttons compared to their market cap**

1 - antibody test - 200,000 + depends on the contract - EVERY house in the UK will be sent an antibody test kit. You will use an ODX test kit as well as your family. Did you know that peeps who are antibody positive volunteer in covid hospitals helping patients with phone calls etc? **Maybe but there are many concerns with the UK-RTC antibody test hence why it has still not been rolled out, also the Mologic test is estimated by your own broker FinnCap to bring in revenue in the region of to quote "House broker finnCap has estimated that Omega will receive approximately £3.20 for each packaged and labelled test, with a gross margin in the region of 50 per cent. This would imply PEAK weekly revenues of approximately £300,000" - That's £1.2m per month at 50% margin so £600K per month, from Mologic, not exactly great figures with the current market cap of ~£117m, but hey you do have more capacity so when it gets to 8m PCM it could do much better**
2 - antigen, saliva test - 200,000+ - yes, Mologic beat avct to the line **Mologic have not beat Avacta to the line, and are not going to be releasing the test until Y/E - again, #ODX is only a manufacturer and Mologic will simply sign up other partners to produce should demand increase, other partners like BBI and AB have supply chains in place to they dont run out of components, they have years of experience and haven't just set up a manufacturing hub like ODX, they are reliable**
3 - ELISA - top for specificity and sensitivity - CE mark - approved in India. Kits sent to India for sale - Well #AVCT just released a 500x more sensitive one so again, can't be that competitive (also have they made any sales on this yet?)

FACT - ODX used all their money to raise capacity for CV19 test kits - in their words, they want to exploit this opportunity.
I bet you wish avct used their funds for CV19. ODX dropped a core business to increase capacity.
**TOTALLY WRONG!** They actually used about half of it, the rest went to paying off debts and for 'general working capital purposes**

Yes, we may be manufactures for avct. I look forward to that. good luck with the the antigen saliva test. you will need it.
**Wouldn't say not to ODX, but no proof that you are going to be reliable when the demand hits, not exactly done this before on a large scale like AB and BBI so maybe AVCT could sign up ODX for an extra 2m tests PCM but I'd much rather sign with a larger, more established manufacturer**

Just got my ticket as well, glad you posted that as I just said to a friend looking to get some WBI before results, then noticed it was tomorrow!
Happy to hold anyway until Y/E as the lumber prices are skyrocketing and surely a re-rate in H2 is on the cards, they dont have the best balance sheet but the current MCAP seems far too low

Whimax so for example like this

TILS valued at £250m (with STEM of course)
STEM spin off at an IPO of £250m
TILS then in theory, if they retain 100% ownership (although I am not sure they would as OPTI did not retain 100% of Skinbiotics, but lets just say they did for the sake of it) then either you have a free TILS share or a free STEM share, whatever way you look at it
The key would be say STEM gets IPO'd at £250m and TILS retain a 50% stake, then either TILS is worth today's MCAP - £125m or TILS is worth £250m today without STEM and the valuation should in theory rise £125m (or whatever STEM ends up at)

It worked quite well for OPTI if I recall, although I dont think they ever got a US listing...

What's this free shares everyone keeps talking about?
So they spin off the StemPrintER (because one business just sold for 2.8 billion was it, and TILS is 40% more effective from initial trials) If I own shares in TILS at what point do I get shares in StemPrintER and why would they be free at this price?

Looks good this one guys, been watching a few of the interviews
Certainly got billion dollar potential
What are we expecting in the next few months here in terms of timelines on completions of Phase(s) and developments

Watched a few of the interviews and they certainly have big potential with oral, nasal or breathalyzer administered antibodies - I'll have to research more of course but the price is now looking pretty attractive, huge discount to placing

If anyone has notes or links would be massively appreciated
Thanks
GLR

PSB some may say those calculations are outrageous, some may say they are feasible
But ultimately, the important thing to note is that you can MAKE those forecasts with evidence to back them up
If we achieve 10% of that it will be absolutely game changing, you dont get many Pharma's sitting on $180m cash and £400m MCAP nevermind $1.8 billion cash

Personally, I think we can almost guarantee 10m tests PCM from BBI for the entire flu season, so that's 60m tests minimum
£2.50 profit per test from BBI alone
£150m GBP cash in the bank by March 2021

Get another manufacturer or two on board, and get that figure up to 30m PCM and you are looking at cash higher than MCAP in as little as six months, that would absolutely skyrocket the SP past £1bn GBP

If Abbott are expecting 50m tests PCM from October, then if AVCT matched this with their tests (which I think our test is going to be better and in higher demand) then in 6 months you can 300m tests sold at £2.50 profit per unit, that's ~£750m Cash in the bank by end of March 2021 - which would warrant a market cap again north of £1 billion, I mean the dividend alone if they did offer one would be astronomical, and that's without any of the other platforms which are potentially worth $500m+ each

I think AVCT gets bought out once these affimers prove to be effective on detecting CV19 in a highly Se/Sp LFD test - the value to a company like Abbott is too much to ignore, I would be preparing a stake in the market right now if I was abbott, the LFD clearly complements their current CARD system (Card for Labs, LFD for at home mass screening) plus we are competition, we could easily eat into their revenue in November/December if business choose to use a much easier to administer CV19 test kit

All depends on the Se/Sp but the upside is very much there
I will be slicing some at £1 billion as that's my personal goal, always wanted to pick a sub £100m stock and see it go over £1 billion, then I will leave the rest to see how the therapeutics play out in 2022+

GDA approved!?
Wonder what that is?

*FDA-EUA approved