Member Info for GLR1990

Just seen this post

Fantastic, I was wondering how the price would impact the market as a whole in this manner, many thanks for the answer

So ideally we simply need a consistent market, not a volatile one - and a price between 45-50 would be great for both shareholders long term and the market long term

Morning Alpha

Do we have any hedges in place or are you suggesting that if vanadium prices say climb to $70 we would simply lock in that price with a client for say 6-12 months vs spot price?

So it could rise to $140 (I am not expecting these btw I would be happy with $40-50 but in theory) and we would have obtained both lock-in price agreements, but still be able to sell the product to one-off clients on the open market for the premium, so a win-win all round for company and clients (apart from those paying $140 but that is their own fault for not locking in a price etc)

In theory of course

Also anyone have a live price for spot V markets or will it update tomorrow?

Had to get some profit taking at some stage, MM’s did a great job of getting the price down rapidly

The fact of the matter is simple, if V prices continue to climb, then no matter what anyone says on here positive or negative, BMN is going one way, and that is north

I hope people haven't bought in expecting an RNS?
Vanadium prices are up 10% over the last 30 days
From $25 (which is the average spot in 2020) to $28.5 USD
Each $1 rise adds around $3m USD (if not slightly more) to the bottom line PBT
So at the same production levels (which are set to increase) BMN would make an extra IMO $10-11m PBT Y/E 21 just from the rise in the last 30 days, however it seems to be rising between 1-2% a day, so if this figure gets into the 30's then you could be looking at an extra $20m+ FCF (on same production, again which will increase) vs 2020
If the prices go even higher, $35-40, then all bets are off
It did go as high as $140 in 2018 but that is bad for the market IMO, causes industries to think twice about investing in vanadium projects as they can suddenly become unaffordable (at the end of the day someone has to buy it, so no trials or specialtive plays or small projects as budget no longer covers it)
Of course this is referring to massive price rises
GLA great day, interesting stats on the volume before news, could be news but I personally think its a long overdue re-rate to the 20's coupled with a big focus on green tech, lots of new energy storage projects, investments in the sector from recent events such as when more than 50% of renewable power hit the grid and they required energy storage (thus proving the investment case) and of course a price rise in V

That is the last thing the shorters wanted, Ole's!

I said before, if you are waiting for a dip absolutely fair enough, but you are not only up against a very hot market, great fundamentals and rising Vanadium prices

I said a few weeks back it looked like RE's were about to take off, same thing here, I think we see $30+ in V prices this week or next, in which case BMN has to trade above 21/22p IMHO

Many thanks for your post James, I am going to repost as it is a very important and educational post - as we rise a lot of traders will come on board and posts like this can be swamped

This is really beginning to get exciting!

More daily rises across the world overnight with Chinese prices edging very close to $30/kg. If the magnitude of these rises continue it looks likely to burst through possibly towards $35 in short order.

My crude estimate based on 2021 production levels would be that for every $ increase from here would add approximately £2.4m to post tax profit, which should equate to roughly 2p on the share price.

GLA

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Does NSCI own 6% of this company? NASDAQ: PDSB

Just bought at 3.99, cheaper than £5m worth of placees
Crazy market

I have been here 4+ years so know hopefully know what I am talking about

Small investment case summary below

Cash Position/Finances
- No placing since April 2019, you could say since Igor came on board who I think has been absolutely instrumental in achieving very solid financing for this company during and incredibly difficult time
- £250K director loans, £1.25m Bank Loan (non government) and now a new £250K Government Loan plus £175K in grants

SaaS business
- At the core of the company is the starcom online platform, each connected unit feeds into the platform and starcom receive a month fee, per unit, of around $1-7 USD

SaaS growth
- Cropx have gone from ~1000 connected units in 2019 to nearly 10,000 connected units in 2020, we expect this to grow considerably over the coming years, at an estimated $3 per unit you can see how this adds up
10000 Units = $360K per annum + hardware
25000 Units = $900K per annum (my target for 2021)

As you can see, this compounds, if you get to 2022/23 its not hard to envision a very bright future for Starcom as a primary OEM for CropX

Zero Motorcycles

Similar to the above, the Starcom device is embedded into every SR/S and every SR/F moving forward, and will be included in all future new models
Zero also announced a partnership with Polaris in September, so this could be very good for Starcom in the future - above scenario of compounding SaaS applies per connected device

Cubemonk

See this video - skip to 14m (second post) https://www.linkedin.com/company/starcomsystems/
Cubemonk have an very intelligent AI platform that can automated bookings, cheaper than anything else on the market, for transportation of goods
Starcom provides the technology within the smartcubes
They are potentially raising $50m, and we are a crucial OEM
Will let you speculate on that one, but I am extremely excited

Existing SaaS

We also have long term partnerships with container monitoring companies such as Contguard and Arviem AG
We have a deal with Cargo Signal (sub of the huge expeditors)
Bosch has also approved the Kylos Air / TDL 140
We also have other smaller but still great partners in Africa, Asia, the US and Australia (JV Technoton, ITrack India , Kynnection etc.)

Anyway, you get all this for £3-4m, which I think is outrageous

Still remain of the opinion that if this was a new company listing, with the current investment case, it would IPO at £10m+

Almost forgot, we also have a new product in Lokies which seems to now be getting a foothold in the market, more to come on that!

Final note, SaaS grew this year, even though revenues were down, the SaaS platform grew (check the iterims) which underlines the most fundamental part of this business

As always do not take this as investment advice, your decisions are your own, of course I hold a position and this is all to the best of my knowledge, not confirmed by the companies involved, so best of luck

£3.5m MCAP... wow

Glad I bought back in at 9.40 yesterday, I too was concerned the placing may have an effect here but now at this market cap it’s only £2.6m and with the volume should shift, also due news on the SA JV which could propel it into the mid teens, small investment ( for now )

I sold my original holding at 8.5p, Nd and NdPr still rising - everything looks solid here and what a hot market

Is a storm on the horizon for the RE market?

https://www.asiatimesfinancial.com/china-enforces-new-export-controls-red-letter-day-for-rare-earths

China has included RE's in the export control list, some calling for a complete ban on exports to the US and Japan

My only concern is we have 2m of placing shares coming online on the 3rd

I have bought some today

For transparency I sold out on the last spike, but I sold at 8.5p not the highs of 10.5p

Think could be a real storm here
tech wars
rare earth export restrictions
ev demand
etc.

CropX dont sell the product anymore for those prices, they license them out via a HaaS model - so the farmer can get ROI immediately, in the past when they sold them for $600-800, this was a big upfront cost to the farmer and B/E could be months down the line, if not years - by moving to HaaS CropX can now gets more pivots installed and accelerated growth

Wow OK I thought I read that was the case but now confirmed that is really great news
First week of December then hopefully for an update

OAP when do you anticipate, if all goes to plan (DD) production could begin at the SA JV project?

80% of the value of the basket sorry
Which is arguably the figure you want!
I think its 20% of the actual concentrate, we have 31% I believe in the SA project

Interesting, we need to watch out for that

"However, China as the world's largest rare earth exporting country, rising prices have also driven growing concern by foreign traders that rare-earth supplies may be constrained if it is included in a new export control law that will take effect on December 1."

So IF Rare Earths are included, the price will likely continue to rise

Considering there isn't much hype, I mean we are up 18% and it's just us posting here, there's not much posting on Twitter and in general I dont think many understand rare earths, including me as I said China accounts for 80% when actually it has moved down to 60%! (I checked that out before)

1. Rare Earth prices improving, and there aren't many to invest in
2. I think there is likely a big buyer, again it's quiet and the share price is moving up steadily with 50-100K chunks
3. Issues in China, they are making it tighter to produce https://www.ft.com/content/b13a3c4e-e80b-4a5c-aa6f-0c6cc87df638

From Another Article: https://qz.com/1931653/us-rare-earths-miner-mp-materials-takes-on-china-dominance/

“China is going to tighten regulations around exports, there’s no question about that,” said Pini Althaus, CEO of USA Rare Earth. “So the EU, US, Japan, etcetera, are going to have a far more difficult time of acquiring what they need.” And because China now needs more rare earths than it can produce, he said, withholding exports for internal use will not be regarded by the WTO as a breach of international trade laws.

The other issue, as MP Materials CEO Jim Litinsky put it in a recent interview, is “a demand-driven challenge.” As global industries electrify, demand for the rare earths will only continue to grow, making it a key strategic priority for countries to secure a reliable supply of the critical minerals.

Who knows, can all change but the team at RBW must be loving the price rises, if you want to check daily rises in the main RE minerals that are used in batteries (magnets) I use this, I think it only updates once a day so I usually check it in the morning

https://www.metal.com/search?keyword=neodymium&type=price

ND makes up around 80% of the total value in the RBW basket

In Response, the main ones I am aware of are
Pensana Rare Earths (exploration?)
Mkango (Exploration - they do have a partner called Talaxis and a project with HyproMag to recycle rare earths)

RBW is the only producing mine so far I as could find in Africa, so that's why I bought some here, I also like the CEO he seems to know his stuff and they have a great team here at RBW

The main issue with REE's is environmental, it causes in most cases significant damage to the environment/water etc. REE deposits sometimes contain a lot of uranium, so radioactive - in the case of RBW, the uranium level is very low, and the REE's are open pit (I believe) so not much impact on the environment

China simply captured the market in the 70's and 80's when nobody was interested, so they bought up a lot of projects - there are still major REE producers outside of China, but only about 20% of the world's supply comes from outside of China, might be 10% actually

Rare earth's are not actually rare, they're just difficult to extract without causing problems, and then you need to make sure you have enough TREO in your mining, and then after that you need to make sure your basket is weighted to the more pricy or in demand REE's like ND PR etc.

Neodymium(RMB/mt)
600,000-620,000
610,000
+30,000
Nov 26, 2020

Neodymium Oxide(RMB/mt)
500,000-510,000
505,000
+15,000
Nov 26, 2020

Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide(RMB/mt)
440,000-450,000
445,000
0
Nov 26, 2020