Member Info for GLR1990

Oh well maybe I should just sell the lot then at £1.17 - anyone got the num for the Ruane/Cuniff fund or should we just leave em a note on the way out that they screwed up another £10m

Revenue aside, just comparing it to current testing methods its an absolute no brainer from every single angle, providing the SE/SP are competitive

A single Medical Professional may be able to collect 20 samples in an hour using a swab based test?
With a PCR LFD device you could test 20 people and have the results in 15 minutes, period

There's no debate, LFD POC will completely transform frontline testing, whether it's AVCT or someone else

Agree RichKen however think of the possibilities for small countries such as Ireland etc.
If I was the chancellor I would be eager to get my hands on the AVCT test
5m population, 5m x 15 = £75m investment to find every single asymptomatic case and isolate? within weeks the country would be out of lockdown with minimum cases = OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Just for reference countries with ~5m population include Ireland, New Zealand, Croatia, Norway, Singapore, Denmark, Finland etc.

I won't mention company names but for IMO and not advice only, this is my forecast for Antigen Testing

PCR Pros
- Highly sensitive 100% and specific 100%

PCR Cons
- Slow (48-72 hours for results)
- Requires Technician / Lab Staff
- Nasal Swab (Saliva into a tube being developed so this will remove con but may be less SE/SP - TBC)

AVCT RPOC LFD TEST

Pros
- Extremely fast (under 30 minutes)
- Results on the spot vs 48-72 hours
- Cost effective (similar price to PCR)
- Can be used to mass screen 'outbreaks' very quickly so data is accurate and not outdated
- Saliva on a LFD device advantageous over PCR nasal swabbing

Cons
- Difficult to achieve very high SE/SP on a LFD POC device
- Unproven that Saliva may be highly SE/SP

Scenario - Outbreak of 1000 cases in a population of 100000 (1% prevalence)

Today
- Anyone with symptoms is sent for a PCR test (drive through or Test Centre) results within 48-72 hours, however from the moment the test is sent from delivery to capture this could be 4-5 days - data collected is now always 4-5 days old from outbreak date, so virus may have spread or be controlled in that time

Future with #AVCT RPOC LFD Device
- Everyone can be sent a test in 24 hours if necessary
- Data collected and uploaded via app within 30 minutes of taking the tes
- Data can now be collected and monitored from ~48 hours or less from the time of the outbreak

Advantages
- Only symptomatic cases will isolate with current PCR testing, with the #AVCT POC LFD device, asymptomatic cases can be found within 48 hours and isolate, whereas with the PCR scenario these cases will likely never be found or if all 100,000 people was tested, the virus could still spread for an extra 3-4 days from delivery to collection to confirmation
- Staffing costs and set up costs to test 100K people in 24-48 hours extremely expensive and cumbersome, simple LFD POC test that can be sent to homes and data uploaded within 30 minutes / begin isolation for the same price as a PCR test + staffing costs is a no brainer
- Anyone who is concerned they are in or near an 'outbreak' area can visit a local supermarket and order a test, or get one quickly online at Medusa19, no requirement to book online and get test results sent within 3 days (this may not be possible for someone who has to work in a hospital, or key environment where they cannot wait 3 days for confirmation)

I am sure there are more advantages but IMO PCR testing is on its way out and will only be used to confirm positive LFD RPOC samples, or those with symptoms that test negative on a RPOC LFD device

not much volume atm but as mentioned looks very oversold given they still hold 11% of an operating mine
Need to work out the overheads of course as revenue in vanity but down here at 3m MCAP could do well if the wind picks up
Copper certainly much better than it was at the start of the pandemic, and gold is through the roof

Thanks LottoHopes, that's very interesting - I did suspect it would be concentrate and not finished product, but good to see those numbers for the Cu and Au

So what's the deal with the market cap? Right now we are looking at 2.5/3m

11% of 4500t of Cu at today's price of ~6450 would be ~29m - 11% interest we are looking at just under $3.2m USD
4800oz Au at today's price (which is much better than January) of $1800 would be ~$8.4m USD with the 11% interest generating around $950K

So all in we could be looking at a payment of around $4m USD for the 11% interest, which wouldn't be so bad! Especially if they can announce some good drilling results and expand the LOM

There's always a catch however...

What we expecting here folks?

Took a position after doing some research over the weekend, got in sub 3.5p earlier in the week, following is my investment case but it's only a small position atm until I find out more about the company

- 11% interest in copper producing mine Minto based in Yukon
- Was 33% but had to sell down, this offset any future payments on milestones, so standard 11% interest now
- First shipment exported in April, still awaiting payment for this? If based on todays copper price should be good
- 55K offtake agreement with Sumitomo, by todays prices that's circa £350m in copper so 11% would be around £39m, this seems ridiculous so please correct me here, but if 55K tonnes of copper was delivered in 2020 then PERE would be in to receive approx £39m in revenue?
- Drilling programme to extend LOM already underway and fully funded before the dilution and move to 11% (cost $2m USD)

Will keep digging but looks attractive with copper prices rising, now that I have said that cue a placing

Agree GM all we can do is wait and hope that the test has the required SE/SP
To be fair anything over 90% I would presume is difficult to achieve so if they get this on the style of test and method (saliva) I will be over the moon, I am not sure how much of the market a 90% test would acquire (certainly not as much as a 98% one) however SONA achieved 96% and their share price increased by over £150m GBP / added, so there is a lot of upside here if we can report very good SE/SP numbers

It is not yet mid July and as always you can never tell, but one would think as this is proposed to be 'THE' game changer, one could expect news in the next two weeks on the SP/SE, we need to get approvals out of the way also so really dont want to be releasing the product late September with Approvals, hopefully end of August/early September

Apples and Oranges

#AVCT could be monumentally overvalued, but the Ruane/Cuniff fund seem to think £10m at £1.20 is a good price so what can you do

I like #GDR and the current market cap is attractive if you believe the antigen market has a lot more to give over the next 12 months

LB28 are you on about these two?
- PCR swab based - not portable so cannot be used in a airport setting / care home
- Rapid antigen testing on the way through SONA and AVCT could displace the market

The GDR 96 SARS-CoV-2 Assay is a Swab Based Antigen Test isn't it? Or am I wrong, apologies if so

I know they are 'developing' a rapid point of care test which uses Saliva and can generate results in 30 minutes, so that can be used in a care home / airport but they are not looking to have that developed until the end of the year, so IMO that is a con at the moment because there are other companies which can take a huge slice of that market, any idea why they are not rushing this to market, maybe they are hugely confident in the PCR test (which is better than any current product out there)

As I said there are pros and cons, I put the portable test as a con for now because there will be other portable tests on the market way before GDR release theirs, but as mentioned if their PCR test is the best in class (which it looks like it is) then large sales should not be far away!

Really tanking here but IF they can bring in any sort of decent revenue in August (£5-10m) then it will look very cheap again
CE mark 22nd May is what has dissapointed me, they have had nearly 2 months and only booked £1m of INDICATED orders, pending approvals
Why are they struggling so much to book orders when it has been CE marked? For comparison NCYT 2 months after CE marking their product, booked £17.8m - yes of course they was first to market
Hopefully Cytiva have a trick up their sleeve otherwise it seems like a pointless collaboration, they have already done well with $SONA (Sona Nanotech) yet to see how the #AVCT partnership will turn out

Pros
MCAP compared to everyone else
PCR test with fewer steps than competitors/easier to use
High Spec Sens
Urgent unmet need for increasing testing capacity

Cons
PCR swab based - not portable so cannot be used in a airport setting / care home
Rapid antigen testing on the way through SONA and AVCT could displace the market
£1m indicated sales only after nearly 2 months of CE marking

Tough one to call as the upside could be significant on approvals, I may re-take a position if it drops to 60-70 as a high risk high reward play

I am starting to become more interested in the B2C model that has been set up with Medusa19

Reading a few mining RNS's over the last few weeks, the big concern is shutting down operations and the health of their staff, a simple 15 minute test done once a week would certainly increase the likelihood that operations will not be impacted by coronavirus, or at least highly mitigated

So the B2C model (saliva based) pregnancy style test is what I believe will make then the most revenue, and it now makes sense why they set up this network very early on

Relying on government contracts and spending billions on testing is one thing, but you can be sure that business owners and consumers will be happy to buy a few tests every now and then for peace of mind and to get their workforce operating at 100% capacity or near

in terms of CV19, that's one of the big advantages of #AVCT - NCYT, GDR or any other play (even SONA) doesn't have the ability to sell their products in a supermarket, or sell them direct to your home without the need to send the results back - that's a monumental achievement, and should be worth a pretty penny

** should clarify writing off the BAMS test
I am not giving up on it, it should still bring in decent revenue, but I am not expecting £10m's from it, if we made £50m in 2020 from the BAMS test that would be exceptional IMO (simply because I am 99% confident LFD RPOC will displace any sort of lab test on the frontline, which is/will be 99% of testing)

PL75 what price did you get on GDR?
I was hammering the sell button on open and never managed to get a single quote over 95p, couple of buys went through at £1.05 (poor sods)

Suspect a lot of GDR holders/traders have moved into here today, we seem to rise pretty quickly post their downfall - if you believe in Antigen testing then it only makes sense that you would go out of one antigen company and move to another

FWIW I still like GDR, I think the RNS was poorly written, £1m sales however after CE marking on the 22nd May, that raises questions about their sales efforts IMO, but crack the US market and a £40m MCAP isn't a huge challenge, especially when you have Cytiva on board

Back to AVCT, if anything it just solidifies the investment here, why? Because you can see how competitive the PCR market is, to be honest I am writing off the BAMS test as a small revenue generator and if it brings in a decent amount, then thats a bonus, the LFD test on the other hand, if that can displace the frontline antigen testing market (e.g. replace PCR as first point of testing) then we could easily be looking at over 1m tests per day

GLA

ODX are also working on 2 Antigen Tests with Mologic due October/November and November/December however for the moment yes, ODX are an antibody play (ELISA with Mologic and RLFD with the UKCON)

Antibody - do you currently have antibodies to the virus within your system AKA have you had the virus in the past/currently have the infection and developed resistance, antibody testing of course does not determine whether you have it now but it can indicate that you may have it/had it - it also could be used for a treatment plan and to also check if a vaccine is working

Antigen Swab PCR - nasal swab collection method, sample sent off to a lab, tells you if you current have the infection
Antigen Swab RT-PCR - same as above but smaller, portable, can bring the lab to care homes etc. (still requires technicians etc, PPE and results within 30 mins-1 hour)
Antigen RLFT POC - Sona have developed a nasal swab based RPOC test that detects the virus within 15 minutes at the POC (point of care) two blue lines on an LFD = positive result, spec/sens 96% - not yet approved

Antigen RPOC LFD Saliva Based - This is what AVCT are developing, same as the rapid lateral flow as per $SONA but using saliva, proposed to give results within minutes - clinical validation on going and no approvals as of yet, prototype designed and currently undergoing those tests

#AVCT on paper has the best test available, there is still a lot of work to do of course, $SONA has an excellent test which is 96% SE/SP, but they still require further approval

Incredible reaction to the SONA share price over in Canada, 125% up

Brilliant results, 96% SE and SP detection in low viral loads

If AVCT can achieve anything similar or better than this, then we could be looking at a very substantial increase in share price, the #AVCT test also has some advantages over the $SONA test, the main one being the SONA test still requires a nasal swab to take place

Link:- https://www.biospectrumasia.com/news/26/16219/sona-nanotech-announces-validation-results-for-its-covid-19-antigen-test.html

Quote: "Rapid, point-of-care, antigen tests uses a nasopharyngeal swab to collect samples, which are then placed in a proprietary reagent solution and added to the sample port of the lateral flow test cassette. Blue colored lines will appear to indicate either a positive (2 lines) or negative result (1 line) within minutes. "

"The Company cautions that its COVID-19 rapid antigen test is not yet approved by the FDA or other regulatory bodies and will update the market as appropriate."

Well, the bar has been set and it looks like $SONA will be first to market, however a saliva based test with a B2C network already set up coming in second, maybe over take the market on announcement

Very positive news indeed

***Target MCAP! :-)

That's the short term (next 2-3 months) without a partner for the CV-19 therapy, if we get someone on board for that then depending on the details and timeframes, significantly higher hopefully
Vir added a couple of billion with their investment, id take 1/10th of that!

Every day we can trade around these levels pre-news I am happy, my most recent top ups at 125 ill timed (as always) however it's all irrelevant because ultimately my target SP is north of £700m

Lots of newsflow expected
- Manufacturing partners for the BAMS test and first revenues
- Clinical Validation of BAMS Test
- Clinical Validation of the LFD test and first revenues
- Approvals for both the BAMS test and the LFD device
- Additional manufacturing partners for the anticipated demand for the LFD test
- Partner to develop a CV19 therapy to block interaction with human cells

Hopefully news on all of the above in July

GLA

For me, this is the most important statement in the RNS

"I am pleased that the test development has progressed from a working initial design to now focussing on optimising the test as much as possible. The Affimer reagents have worked well in lateral flow test strips and we are very encouraged by the initial data." - Klaus, Global Product Lead - Cytiva

1. Progressed from a working initial design, to optimising the test as much as possible
2. The affimer reagents have worked well and we are VERY encouraged by the initial data

It was enough to release an RNS and Cytiva surely wouldn't comment on some AIM ramp nonsense

Because NCYT PCR based Antigen Test will see significantly decreased demand once LFD devices such as SONA, AVCT and any other company release tests to market
PCR testing will be secondary and will be mainly used to confirm LFD device positives, or screen symptomatic health workers
PCR testing is too slow, requires personell and cannot be used for mass screening

These portable PCR devices are great as they can be used in Airports etc. but again the use is the same, you are not going to screen thousands of people with a PCR device, you will simply use these devices to confirm positives, or negatives where the patient is symptomatic

Plus you dont know the June results yet for NCYT, the may results was very underwhelming and at the time I said I wa dissapointed and sold out, the SP is now £1+ lower than when those results was annouced

For what its worth, I am a fan of NCYT at the right price, and I am interested to see what they report early July, should the revenue increase considerably then I will invest, but if you want to come on here and compare apples and oranges, then I am happy to point out the flaws with NCYT and PCR testing

Also, the GDR test is better, quicker, and more cost effective than NCYT and their market cap is £60m - the market is looking towards the future not the past, £120m revenue does not warrant a £170m MCAP - will they make more revenue of course they will, but their margin is 50% EBITDA and secondly they just paid off a load of debt, so the cash position is likely, currently to be less than £40m IMO - #NCYT need to hope demand for PCR nasal testing remains steady for the next 6 months to ensure they generate enough cash to cover the market cap, that's what I am looking for in the next update

Sorry for the waffle