Member Info for giantsquid

I'm surprised Putin hasn't been accused of being a shorter yet lol maybe he is? Maybe this entire crisis is him trying to get the share price down so he can buy in lower?

The FTSE 100 is set to drop sharply at the open as Britain prepares to roll out sanctions against Russia.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is chairing an emergency meeting of COBRA to determine the response after President Vladimir Putin recognised the independence of two separatist-controlled regions in Ukraine and deployed troops.

The conflict has sparked turmoil on markets, with the FTSE 100 set to follow Asian stocks deep into the red amid fears about sanctions.

It has also rattled energy markets, with European gas prices surging 13pc, while Brent crude pushed 2.2pc higher to close in on $100 a barrel.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/22/ftse-100-markets-live-news-russian-index-oil-gas/

On the 5yr chart it does look like the share price might be beginning to bottom out. Its not falling quite so sharply, more of a curve forming now which might soon become a flatline, probably in the mid to high 70s (£950m to £1bn mcap or thereabouts) I think it'll crawl along the bottom in the 75p to 90p range for maybe a few months before beginning to lift off again later this year. I think it might go a bit lower yet, 70s can't be ruled out, but I don't think the bottom is far off now.

Mcap might temporarily dip below a billion imo that's around 79p
That could be the bottom, might see it flatline then - who knows

What exactly are the markets so worried about regarding Ukraine? The chances of military conflict between NATO and Russia is zero. Russia may well invade and Ukraine will fall rapidly if it happens, but the response from NATO countries will be nothing more than sanctions. Russia may of course hit back by restricting oil and gas supplies - but in so doing they shoot themselves in the foot as oil and gas exports to Europe accounts for huge and vital revenue for Russia. One thing is certain, the west will NEVER go to war against Russia or China. There may be tense moments, sabre rattling etc, but neither side would ever risk military conflict - both sides are capable of wiping the other out, so it'd be a war of total destruction that neither side can possibly win - and both sides know that. Whatever happens, this crisis will quickly calm down and the markets will just move on rather quickly from it, for example 9/11 was a far bigger and harder hitting world crisis than Ukraine and the markets soon recovered from that.

Whatever happens in Ukraine, the west won't get involved militarily against Russia. Worst case scenario is there'll be sanctions but sanctions isn't going to affect global markets that much, if at all. Putin isn't a warmonger nor is he a madman. He just wants NATO away from Russia's doorstep which is understandable - if anything it's NATO and the US who are the aggressors. Whatever happens it's a temporary crisis that won't come to anything. The markets will quickly recover whether Russia invades or not - the west will never go to war against Russia or China because it would be guaranteed mutual destruction. Both sides are capable of obliterating the other - and it's because of that that war between the two will never happen. For investors it's just a breif opportunity to buy in low that won't be around forever..

"FY results in March looking very promising considering how all of the other cinema chains have been doing globally"

All the other cinema chains aren't drowning in debt. All the other cinema chains haven't just lost a £700m court case. Well run companies are not comparable to poorly run companies. Regardless of what the sector is doing.

I don't see any immediate urgency to buy in, can't see anything much happening for a while. At some point this decline is going to hit the bottom though, at which point I think we'll see it flatline for x number of weeks - that'll be the ideal time to buy in. I think bottom will be hit around april, probably mid to high 70s before lifting off again in the summer. By year end i'm going for £1.10+ and I think next year will see a sustained rise back above £1.50 to £1.75 or so.

Jurassic World dominion trailer - looks good - to be fair there's some good movies lined up, whether they'll help turn things around for Cineworld though remains to be seen
https://youtu.be/fb5ELWi-ekk

These world events ordinarily present rare buying opportunities for canny investors. I'm not sure Cineworld is one such buying opportunity given NAV per share is just 16p? At nearly 40p the shares appear way overvalued? If the appeal is lost they're going to have to find another £700m to pay Cineplex - and where's that money going to come from? Too many unknowns here imo too many risks. There are far better opportunities out there than cine - boo, ASOS, Ted, CPI to name just a few

80p is a billion mcap. If the slide continues I think this figure might be tested, but I don't think it'll stay below 80p for long if it does happen. That's just my opinion.

In 2015 share price bottomed out at around 25p (£300m mcap) 80p is around £1bn mcap. I think the bottom will be 80p as I can't see mcap falling below £1bn. We might see 79p briefly if the slide continues, but I don't think this will stay sub 80p if it does go that low. We have to remember boohoo is a much bigger company than it was in 2015 so I really can't see this falling anywhere near that low again. I'm looking to buy into boohoo soon just waiting a bit longer to see where it settles before I start buying. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's thinking the same thing - when the recovery gets underway, the rise here could be spectacular.

At some point boo, ASOS and Ted will see a v-shaped recovery. A lot of money will be made on these stocks by those buying at the bottom and then waiting a couple of years. Hard to know where the bottom is, but anything below £1 will ultimately prove a great entry price looking back in a few years time. The company is still growing strong so there every chance all time highs will be broken in the years to come.

"With rising snacks, drinks and seat prices the debt will fall as a percentage of revenue year on year"

Deluded fool. When costs go up, people cut back. Some will stop going to the cinema altogether, others will go but they won't buy any food or drink. If costs go up, the company will have no choice but to absorb them. If they try to pass higher prices onto the customer, they will lose custom. If they absorb higher costs, profit margin falls. If they don't absorb higher costs, they risk losing custom. Either way, higher prices is very much a negative not a positive.

Cineworld has a net asset value of just £227m which is just over 16p nav per share.

The company was already in massive debt BEFORE covid came along. Only a fool would go on a massive spending spree trying to acquire Cineplex when already up to their eyeballs in debt.

My point is, if Cineworld had chosen not to try and takeover the world, if the company had remained a smaller company, they'd have been largely debt free right now and the share price would be much higher. Expansion is all very well but the downside is that it involves taking on a lot of debt. And that in turn destroys the share price. The company has tried to grow too much too quickly and it hasn't worked out for them. Call it greed or stinking bad management, I'm not sure which.

My guess is at some point soon Cineworld will be unable to service it's debts and will go under, it's assets will then be bought from the administrators by another operator at a knock down price. Cineworld could have been debt free with a booming share price, instead it's been unnecessarily burdened with massive debt by a management who can't stop borrowing and spending. And it's the shareholders who've suffered because of it.

Strange/********, I'm not back. I'm not invested. Just for your information matey. However I stand by my post - I think sae is one to watch. If you timed your entry wrong and are feeling bitter that's your problem not mine.

I can see tidal power being big in the future - unlike solar and wind it isn't dependent on the weather, the tides are constant, powered by the moon. The technology is still in it's infancy hence the share price - this is really one of those stocks you have to buy when it's a tiny penny stock and just leave alone for x number of years and see what happens. At this price even a smallish sum of money buys you a hell of a lot of shares - which could be worth a small fortune in the years to come if tidal really takes off. It's a very speculative stock but it's one of the best out there - the price is ridiculously low and the opportunity is potentially enormous.