Member Info for giantsquid

How do i know that? Because mine just did! Very sneaky Mr Market Maker

Mitie Group plc (LSE: MTO) has an estimated intrinsic fair value of around £1.96 to £2.22 per share, while some models project a future cash flow value as high as £3.26 to £3.41. With shares trading around the £1.73 to £1.75 mark, the stock is considered moderately to significantly undervalued by value investors.

The valuation details outline a highly promising picture for the facilities management leader

Current Share Price: Hovering between £1.73 and £1.75.

Analyst Price Target: The median 12-month target sits at £2.02, representing an estimated 16% upside.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Value: Estimated between £2.22 and £3.26 based on strong recent earnings and forecast double-digit annual profit growth of 21.24%

Revenue Projections: Group revenues are expected to eclipse £5.65 billion, driven by strong public sector project demand and recent European acquisitions.

You do have to query though how yesterday the share price conveniently drops to £2.95 and then today, the day before it goes ex div, it goes up by more or less exactly the amount it's likely to fall tomorrow, meaning those who bought yesterday at £2.95 get the dividend without incurring a paper loss. Uncanny. Big players, dividend capture and manipulation springs to mind.

If, for arguments sake, you were to buy in ahead of ex-dividend day, yes there's a likelihood the shares will fall on the day by approximately the dividend payout, but the chances are the company would recoup that money relatively soon and the shares would be back to pre-dividend day levels within, let's say, a couple of months at most, especially considering the shares are currently on the cheap side. So 2 months from now, or sooner, there's a good chance those buying in today will no longer be sat on a loss and they'll have captured the dividend payout as well. My point is, buying in today for the dividend is very likely going to make you better off than leaving the money in a savings account for example, especially considering the meagre interest rates.

Yet another "deal with Iran" said to be very close pending Trump's approval.

I don't, not even for one second, believe any peace agreement with Iran would hold. I'd give it 48 hours and Iran would already be breaking the agreement. It's never going to happen, Mr Trump. The reason we know that is we're dealing with monsters, not human beings. The only way to deal with the Iranian regime and end this conflict is by military force. It's the only language these mad mullahs understand. In terms of market reaction if there is some kind of peace agreement, I genuinely don't think the market believes it anymore. There's a general feeling of mistrust everyone has that this situation can be resolved peacefully. People just don't buy it anymore.

https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/us-iran-war-deal-mou-trump-b2985358.html

Zia Yusuf, Reform "Britain was built on the hard graft of people who go the extra mile.

A Reform government will ABOLISH income tax on hours worked beyond 40 hours a week, for incomes below £75,000 a year.

It’s time to REWARD hard work, not punish it! 🇬🇧"

This is coming out of the US just now on x. It looks like military action may be about to kick off again?

"Vice President JD Vance has made an UNPLANNED RETURN to Washington, DC, and his motorcade is racing to the White House

President Trump has summoned his whole national security team to a meeting on Iran.

POTUS is also scheduled to hold a conference call at 1pm ET with the leaders of several Arab nations.

Hegseth in route to WH now as well. General Caine spotted arriving.

Just saw another motorcade racing through central DC towards the White House as well"

A HISTORIC British brickmaker is officially closing its factory after 139 years in operation.

The site, which opened in 1887, will cease operations due to the “collapse” in housebuilding across the UK.

Michelmersh Brick Holdings announced the decision to close its Charnwood plant in Shepshed, Leicestershire.

The business blamed the continued setbacks in the UK economy causing a slump in demand for new builds.

It also cited “a lack of confidence” among consumers as another reason for the recent dropoff.

The firm, which has has been building homes with traditional handmade red bricks since the Victorian era, is preparing to consolidate its manufacturing operations at its other factory in Romsey, Hampshire.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/39186373/brickmaker-shuts-factory-michelmersh-brick-holdings-charnwood-leicestershire/

Homes England achieves highest number of completions since 2020 as new era of housing and regeneration delivery hits the ground running

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/homes-england-achieves-highest-number-of-completions-since-2020-as-new-era-of-housing-and-regeneration-delivery-hits-the-ground-running

The next Persimmon PLC (PSN) ex-dividend date is June 18, 2026. This is for the final dividend of 40p per share, which is scheduled to be paid to shareholders on July 10, 2026.

1250 shares = £500.00

At these prices i would imagine investors will be buying in quite large numbers before ex dividend day as they're getting not only at a great entry price but also a hefty dividend payment. Of course the share price usually drops by the amount per share on ex dividend day (40p in this case) however, considering how far the shares have already fallen over the past few months, there's a chance it may not fall as much, if at all.

Boohoo hasn't tweeted since November 2024. Have they given up?

Nav per share around 9p

Fair value around 24-29p

The best thing that could happen here would be if a larger company made an offer for it, although i can't see that happening. Debenhams is a great brand and the biggest asset the company has in my opinion. I used to love their department stores it's just a shame they closed, online isn't the same.

I do believe in this company. But i don't believe in this government. It'll probably take a general election for the housebuilders to be back in favour again. The current mcap is ridiculous - this is now a much larger company than Bovis with a much bigger asset value. And yet Bovis had almost TWICE the market cap just prior to becoming Vistry ( at £1.6bn)

£4.5bn forward order book

£3.3bn net asset value

Relatively low debt and a target net cash position by year end exceeding £100m

Oh and a market cap that is close to HALF that of Bovis which was £1.6bn immediately before it became Vistry, a much larger group with a significantly larger asset value - which is absolutely nuts

The only conclusion anyone can draw from this right now is hedge funds KNOW this has huge future potential and are using the current climate to their advantage to help drive it down - and then they plan to capitalise a second time by making a killing on the way back up. Which they know is coming. They know all about the UK's housing crisis, population boom, open borders, affordability crisis. They know all about the £39bn investment into the housing sector over the next 10 years. They know all about Vistry being the government's partner of choice. They know all about the business model and how it differs from the other housebuilders uniquely placing it in a prime position to capitalise over the coming years.

Vistry's largest shareholder, Abrams, are themselves a US hedge fund. Are they playing this both ways? Who knows. But what is absolutely undeniable is hedge funds are known to target companies they can make a killing on both ways. And Vistry has huge future upside potential combined with a tiny freefloat - there's no question hedge funds have noticed that and are keen to profit from the eventual recovery from as low a base as they can possibly drive it. I'm not suggesting anything untoward may be going on - it's how hedge funds operate - they're simply capitalising from the current climate but there's no question they'll have their eyes also very firmly focused on the recovery phase too and their timing of when the ship is about to turn will probably be close to spot on.

"Pausing the current share buybacks to service debt, not a good look"

What are you talking about?! It's a VERY good look. I wouldn't want to be invested in any company that puts buybacks and dividends before debt. It's the mark of a responsible management. And lower debt will, in time, result in a higher share price and restoration of dividends and buybacks.

Shorters have a VERY limited amount of time to close their positions and get out before they're roasted. This is going to begin to take off in a meaningful way before the end of this year.

There's a near 100% likelihood of further US military action - imminently i would say. The Iranian regime are pure evil - murderous terrorists who need taking out. And nothing else will do. And the long suffering Iranian people don't want it any other way - they celebrated the initial US and Israeli strikes and they overwhelmingly want them to finish the job. Trump has tried the peaceful route, he's tried to be reasonable but it hasn't worked and regrettably it's time to finish the job once and for all.

Banbury, Reform seem to be doing rather well today? Have you checked the news lately or is still too painful for you to look?

I do wonder if the housebuilders are up today on the back of Reform's surge in the local elections? It's perfectly plausible the market is starting to bet on a Reform government and a possible early general election? There's a definite sniff of optimism in the air today that finally this fetid corrupt government could finally soon be ousted.

Shares will surge when this godforsaken war is over. Iran was supposed to be giving a response to the US peace agreement LAST NIGHT. Don't know what happened there but there's still no word from them on it. Listened to Trump this morning on the news "we're very close to a deal it could come anytime but then again it might not we'll have to see" (just a total word salad it's no wonder the markets are struggling to read the situation). How long this situation drags on for is a big deal because it's the main driver of inflation and interest rates, we need this thing resolved soon.

Regards shorting, big institutions hold tens of millions of shares here - they're not going to allow anything untoward to happen to the company. Abrams in particular, is a multi billionaire whose company manages $13bn of assets - these people are extremely astute and know what they're doing and only invest big like that in companies they really believe in and have identified as a great value play that offers a lot of upside. The shorting is primarily aimed at the SECTOR not the company, hence why all the housebuilders are being shorted, even persimmon and Taylor Wimpey which both have no debt. The sector is undeniably going through a rough patch but that will change in time.

Hopefully Iran will agree to the US peace agreement later today - the US is optimistic plus China is now telling Iran to reopen the straight as well, so it does look quite optimistic at this point. If there is a deal, tomorrow will see a strong bounce. The US has apparently backed down somewhat on several points in the peace plan making a deal with Iran more likely. Hopefully there'll be a breakthrough later today.

Total debt is around£596.00M and cash £353.70M. By year end, they're expecting a £100m positive net cash position, ie, net cash exceeds debt by £100m. Which is what I said.