Member Info for giantsquid

I think we need to keep things in context. The total number of shares sold short is a much, much smaller number than the total number of shares held by the major shareholders. Even Sainsbury's has quite a lot of short interest. It means very little. There's no clear cut case that shorters are more likely to be right, infact shorting has around a 70% rate of failure, only around 30% call it right. Statistically it's a far riskier bet and potentially far more costly than going long. The reopening of the Straight of hornuz will result in a strong rally here and elsewhere - that alone is going to hurt those shorting. And 2026 is actually looking positive for Vistry - there's no question they're busy with developments going up all over the place on a near daily basis and a focus on being debt free by year end. At some point there'll be a short squeeze - would you want to risk that? Personally I wouldn't.

Major Shareholders (Approximate):

Abrams Capital Management, L.P.: ~12.86% (40.95m shares)

Browning West LP: ~9.5% (30.25m shares)

Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC: ~6.31% (20.09m shares)

Jefferies LLC: ~5.53% (17.61m shares)

Rising oil prices = rising inflation = rising interest rates (which is bad news for mortgage payers, lenders and housebuilders)

Hopefully the worst is behind us - the US stated yesterday offensive operations are over and this is now about finding a peace agreement and getting the straight reopened. Hence shares are rallying today due to improved sentiment and lowering of oil prices.

Annual UK house prices rose by 3%, up from 2.2% in March, while prices increased by 0.4% month on month after seasonal adjustment, Nationwide data reveals.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.

Verona Frankish, the CEO of Yopa, said: “Despite the rate of monthly house price growth slowing, property values remain higher than both this time last month and when compared to this time last year. "This highlights just how strong the UK property market is when you consider the wider economic landscape, not to mention global turbulence.”

Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “Write the housing market off at your peril. Another market survey – this time from the country’s largest building society – shows prices holding up better than we’d dared hope, particularly of houses, bearing in mind continuing uncertainties about the cost of living, including mortgages. Although the data covers the period up to the first month of the war in Iran, perhaps before it became apparent hostilities would become more protracted, we are finding on the ground realism is starting to prevail.”

https://www.property118.com/uk-house-price-growth-rises-to-3-nationwide/

Current number of shares in issue = 318,734,074

Current market cap = £1,060,000,000

Net asset value = £3,300,000,000 (mcap currently a massive £2.24 billion BELOW net asset value)

Market cap all time high = £3.5 billion in 2024 / £15 per share (far exceeding nav which was £2.22bn at that time)

Based on the current number of shares in issue, which has now significantly decreased due to recent buybacks & cancellations, what will the share price be in the coming years, post recovery, assuming, as we should, that market cap once again equals or exceeds net asset value, as it has done before?

£1,100,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £3.45 share price

£1,200,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £3.76 share price

£1,300,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £4.08 share price

£1,400,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £4.39 share price

£1,500,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £4.71 share price

£1,600,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £5.02 share price

£1,700,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £5.33 share price

£1,800,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £5.65 share price

£1,900,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £5.96 share price

£2,000,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £6.27 share price

£2,100,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £6.59 share price

£2,200,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £6.90 share price

£2,300,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £7.22 share price

£2,400,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £7.53 share price

£2,500,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £7.84 share price

£2,600,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £8.16 share price

£2,700,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £8.47 share price

£2,800,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £8.78 share price

£2,900,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £9.10 share price

£3,000,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £9.41 share price

£3,100,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £9.73 share price

£3,200,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £10.04 share price

£3,300,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £10.35 share price

£3,400,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £10.67 share price

£3,500,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £10.98 share price

£3,600,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £11.29 share price

£3,700,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £11.61 share price

£3,800,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £11.92 share price

£3,900,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £12.24 share price

£4,000,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £12.55 share price

£4,100,000,000 market cap ÷ 318,374,074 shares in issue = £12.86 share pri

"New agreements signed this week with U.S. firms Hunt Overseas and Crossover Energy target the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela’s core heavy crude region. European majors, including Eni, Repsol, and BP are also expanding or exploring positions, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have sent teams to assess opportunities"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Oil-Exports-Hit-Seven-Year-High.html

a new peace deal from iran has been sent to ****stan. ****stan say they're optimistic. meanwhile the us has said they're not at war with iran. they're focused on getting a peace deal. dow jumped. oil tumbled.

Google AI : As of early 2026, Vistry Group (VTY) boasts a strong balance sheet with substantial equity and is targeting a net cash position of approximately £100 million by the end of 2026. The company is experiencing a shift towards higher sales, with a forward sales position of roughly £4.0bn and a focus on delivering affordable housing through its partnership model.

Key 2026 Financial Metrics & Expectations:

Net Debt/Cash: While net debt was £144mn at the end of 2025, the company aims to move to a net cash position, though some analysts, according to, expect a lower year-end debt of £21mn.

Profitability: Vistry expects to deliver good year-on-year revenue and volume growth in 2026, with adjusted profit before tax expected to exceed the 2025 level (approx. £270mn).

Asset Value: The company holds strong equity, with recent valuations highlighting a net asset value per share estimated around £9.78

As of late April 2026, Vistry Group (VTY.L) is trading at a significant discount to its net asset value, indicating the market is valuing the company well below the worth of its net assets.

Key Valuation Metrics (April/May 2026) :

Market Capitalisation: Approximately £1.02bn – £1.12bn.

Net Assets (Balance Sheet): Approximately £3.30bn as of June 2025

Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: ~0.31 - 0.32, which is very low, implying the market cap is roughly 31-32% of the company's book value.

Analysis:

Significant Undervaluation: The gap between the market capitalisation (£1.1bn) and net assets (£3.3bn) shows that the stock is trading at a high discount, with some analysts suggesting the market is valuing it at a 49% discount to its estimated fair value.

Financial Health:

Despite the low market cap, Vistry’s net assets have remained relatively stable or grown over recent years, and they are navigating a shift towards a partnership model, which has seen strong revenue growth in the social housing sector.

£580m Build-to-Rent Deal (June 2024): Vistry signed a landmark deal with Blackstone and Regis to build 1,750 homes across 36 developments, mostly in the South East of England.

£150m Homes England Joint Venture (Sept 2025): Vistry partnered with Homes England to form "Hestia," a long-term JV aimed at accelerating large-scale, mixed-tenure developments (ranging from 400 to 3,000 homes).

3,500+ Homes in Worcester/Bury St Edmunds (Dec 2025): Vistry announced two projects to deliver over 3,500 homes, with at least 50% pre-sold to partners.

1,900 Homes with Abri/Clarion (March 2024): Two large partnership agreements, including a 1,500-home development at Ford Airfield in West Sussex.

1,000+ Homes at Northstowe (April 2026): A recent major deal to deliver the next phase of homes in Cambridgeshire.

Rumours airports are reopening in Iran

https://oilprice.com/

Airlines jumped at same time....

https://oilprice.com/

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg7p89mp2rjo

Has anyone else had a gutful of this shockingly appalling government yet? Rachel Reeves is without doubt the most fiscally illiterate chancellor we've ever had. They'll no doubt be quietly thanking their lucky stars they can now blame all the problems they've caused on the Iran war.

"It's not our war"

"It's not our fault, we inherited this mess from the last government"

All we can say with certainty is everything in this country has gone to shyt since labour came to power

Sham is either shorting or trolling. Possibly both. He can't spell even basic English and frequently makes no sense. All the housebuilders are down in equal measure today due to geopolitics. Nothing to do with the company itself, ie it's across the board and most shares are in the red for the same reason.

"thanks to the orange baffoon"

Noteworthy you pin the blame on Trump rather than the regime who murdered 50,000 innocent Iranians out peacefully protesting just prior to the war starting.

Noteworthy you have absolutely no words of condemnation for this GENOCIDE - most probably because you can't blame Israel for the murders

Noteworthy you blame Trump for tackling a regime that refuses to give up it's weapon's grade enriched uranium

Noteworthy you blame Trump for finally having the courage to deal with a terrorist regime that has not only brutally terrorised it's people for 47 years, but also funds global jihad right across the western world - not a single word of condemnation from your ilk about that

Meanwhile it's creatures like you who take to the streets each week with your increasingly vile antisemitic chants and calls for uprisings against western countries, your own country, your own people - all whilst masked up so CCTV and the police can't recognise your faces

Nobody wants this conflict but appeasing the number 1 sponsors of global terrorism through with inaction and cowardice wouldn't end well. Ultimately it would end with the Iranian regime getting their hands on a nuclear bomb and very likely using it either against us, the US or Israel.

That's why "the orange baffoon" as you put it, is having to do what he's doing. Save your contempt for Obama and Biden who between them not only sat on n their hands regarding Iran and did nothing, both unbelievably gave the regime BILLIONS OF DOLLARS which Iran subsequently used to fund terrorist atrocities. October 7th for example took place just WEEKS after Biden foolishly gave Iran access to billions of dollars that were frozen - he unfroze that money and lo and behold just weeks later we had the worst terror attacks in history launched at Israel. Again, not a word of condemnation from people of your ilk about any of that. People like you are on the wrong side of history, the wrong side of good versus evil. You should be ashamed.

Yes this conflict is tiresome and we all want stability back, hopefully it'll happen soon. Regards the share price, Vistry was 3rd highest riser on the day Iran announced the straight was reopened. So we all know which direction the share price is likely to travel when this situation does eventually end. And we all know how from the last time how fast it moves too.

Https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/vistry-group-plc-stock-gb0009692319-why-its-affordable-housing-focus/69253998

The iranian regime has informed the Trump administration they're in dire straits and want the straight reopened. The US financial stranglehold has got them on the ropes. The end is coming

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-as-Trump-Claims-Iran-is-in-State-of-Collapse.html

Trump has posted the Iranian regime has been in contact with his administration. They told him they're in dire trouble and desperate to open the straight. The end of this conflict is nigh

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-as-Trump-Claims-Iran-is-in-State-of-Collapse.html

It's happening - the Iranian regime has contacted the Trump administration informing them their economy is in "a state of collapse"

The end of this crisis is not far off

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-as-Trump-Claims-Iran-is-in-State-of-Collapse.html

The US blockade is akin to a lion clamping it's jaws on the neck of it's prey. For the lion, it can hold that position indefinitely. It can breathe perfectly okay. But for the prey, all it can do is kick out from time to time knowing it's futile - that it's life is draining away and there's nothing it can do about it.

The iranian regime are being slowly but surely starved of cash. To the tune of $500 million a day. Their economy is crashing. Military personnel aren't getting paid. The police aren't getting paid. Anger at the regime is growing. Meanwhile the US is benefiting from hundreds of tankers that have turned to the US to supply them with oil. The US can hold this position for as long as it takes. Soon, very soon, the Iranian regime will either be overthrown by way of a coup detat, or they'll be forced to accept US terms for opening the straight and ending the conflict. The US has a financial stranglehold on the regime and there's no way out of it for them, it's only a matter of time.

Vistry has acquired a development site on Oldbury Road in Worcester on which it intends to deliver 103 affordable homes.

The company has forward sold all of the homes at the site, which forms part of the wider Worcester West urban extension, to affordable housing provider Bromford Flagship LiveWest. Construction of the new homes is expected to begin next month.

Busy, busy company. There's barely a day that goes by when there isn't news of yet another agreement to build more housing. The climate may be tough and this government is undoubtedly an absolute clown show, but Vistry is very much getting on with business regardless. Shorts can do what they want, the market can continue to grossly undervalue the company - none of that affects daily business. Investors have to remember, they're not buying a stock, they're buying a business. It's what the BUSINESS is doing that matters, not what the share price is doing. The share price will come in time. What matters is that the business is busy and doing what it does. The rest will follow in time.

https://benews.co.uk/vistry-acquires-worcester-site-for-new-affordable-homes/