Member Info for giantsquid

Hopefully today will be a good day, however Asian markets are tanking this morning & FTSE futures are down 140pts, so deeply red day coming for most UK shares by the look of it. Fears over the war spreading/continuing, soaring energy prices leading to higher inflation and higher interest rates so for most of the FTSE the sell off looks set to continue. Housebuilders, travel and financial sectors are being particularly badly hit right now.

https://liveindex.org/ftse-futures/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/

Vistry is owned mostly by institutional investors, what people post on this forum won't make the slightest bit of difference to the share price. It's easy to get defensive when someone posts something you don't like or disagree with but realistically speaking the numbers involved between private investors are way too small to make any difference to the share price. Concerns over the Iran war and soaring oil and gas prices and what all this might do to inflation and interest rates are what's predominantly driving the share price lower for all of the housebuilders. Once the war is over and the worries begin to subside, shares that have fallen hard will bounce back. The issue here is investors are wrongly assuming the ongoing fall is still in connection with the recent update when it very likely isn't.

The single biggest issue holding the share price down right now is the same issue holding down most other shares - the Iran war. The sooner it's over, or at the very least the sooner the US and allies have the situation properly under control and oil/gas prices begin to fall again, the sooner optimism will return to the markets and a recovery will be underway. As we all know the markets hate uncertainty - without knowing exactly how long the conflict will last and without knowing exactly how long energy prices will remain elevated, it's difficult to predict the effect all this might have on inflation, the economy etc. And it's that uncertainty that's behind the global sell off we've been seeing- once the war is over, probably within 4 or 5 weeks from now according to the US anyway, then we'll see a proper recovery underway and as for Vistry, there's no question bargain hunters will pile into this at these crazy levels and I don't honestly think it'll be long before this is back at similar levels to where it was (£6/£7) which is about where it should be at this stage. Nav per share is around £6.80 so it's clearly very much undervalued at the moment and i can't see it staying down here for long.

Markets in the US largely shrugged off the war yesterday with the dow closing up 200pts. Asian markets surging this morning after global sell off which lasted 3 days, indian markets expected to open higher too. Will Europe follow suit? Seems likely something of a bounce could be coming today for shares that have been hammered over the past few days.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-03-05/

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-shares-set-open-higher-tracking-recovery-asia-2026-03-05/

https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/stock-markets-explode-higher-us-stock-index-action/

The current share price is 45% below net asset value per share, today's fall was way oversold. My guess is it was amplified by the Iran war/amplified by general market jitters around soaring energy prices and the effect that might have on inflation etc. Had the war not been going on, today's fall would have been significantly less, probably no more than 10%. The war isn't going to last much longer. The US said earlier they expect to have achieved air superiority by the end of today - that milestone typically marks the turning point of a conflict as there's not a lot Iran can do with the skies ruled over by US and allied aircraft. Markets will obviously rally when the war is declared over, so as for Vistry it's not likely to be long before this is comfortably back above £5 and probably £6+ too. And I wouldn't be entirely surprised if there's a 5-10% or so bounce possibly even tomorrow which would take it back above £5. But anything less than around £6.75 is undervalued compared to NPS.

"Based on the latest available financial data (approx. early March 2026), here are the key book value and net asset metrics for Vistry Group PLC (VTY.L):

Key Financial Metrics (as of 2026 reports):

Total Equity (Book Value): Approximately £3.24 billion – £3.30 billion.

Net Asset Value (NAV) per Share: Approximately 679.46p (based on tangible assets).

Book Value per Share: Reported in the range of 9.34p to 10.08p in recent summaries.

Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: ~0.64 – 0.69, indicating the stock is trading below its book value.

London Stock Exchange

London Stock Exchange

+4

Balance Sheet Highlights (Dec 31, 2024 / early 2026):

Total Assets: £6.04 billion.

Total Liabilities: £2.81 billion.

Net Tangible Assets: £2.04 billion.

Yahoo Finance UK

Yahoo Finance UK

The share price has been trading in a range of roughly 475p to 746p over the past year"

Market cap currently £1.56bn

Share price currently £2 below nav per share

Bonkers. Whilst i don't see much hope of anything like £10+ share again during this government, if Reform win the next general election it'll be a strongly Britain first agenda with a strong push to get Britain building again, especially given Richard Tice is himself an experienced property developer who knows what he's talking about and knows what needs to be done. I have zero faith in this labour government, truly i believe they're appalling, utterly so. But the prospect of Reform potentially coming to power should fill everyone with hope. Nigel Farage believes a general election could come as early as next year. Patience will be required but I strongly believe better days are coming for this country, we just need to hang in there a little bit longer.

Where's the government's much promised £35bn injection into the housing sector? Perhaps the government's magic money trees are having a bad harvest this year? Or possibly the welfare budget has had it all or chagos? This government can't be trusted with anything. This will come good but only once this traitorous, appalling clown show of a government is kicked out

Google AI : "Oil shares are broadly declining today, Tuesday, 3 March 2026, despite a sharp surge in crude prices, primarily due to fears that escalating conflict in the Middle East will fuel global inflation and lead central banks to maintain higher interest rates for longer. While rising oil prices typically benefit energy producers, the current "energy price shock" has triggered a wider market sell-off as investors weigh the risks of a sustained global economic slowdown"

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2026/03/02/the-bp-share-price-is-back-above-500p-but-is-there-more-to-come/

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shipping-Costs-Surge-as-Insurers-Drop-War-Risk-Protection-in-Gulf.html

The F15 was caught up in a friendly fire incident, as happened twice in the gulf. It's one of the very few fighters in the world that has never been shot down by enemy fire in it's entire time in service. It's widely considered one of the greatest fighter jets ever built

https://youtu.be/9NUAjWlNCY4?si=6JtQ9RgAw5Eh8u-d

# Trades 38,314

Vol. Sold 15,368,552

Sold Value £65.55m

Vol. Bought 14,269,240

Bought Value £65.91m

Looking at the 5D chart, we might see another attempt at £5 this afternoon? Bit of a spike on opening but going by the 5D chart it does appear at least things may begin moving up again fairly soon. Oil prices are going one way only at the moment so any pull backs, realistically speaking, are likely to be extremely temporary in the current climate. Long way to go yet. Oil prices are heading significantly higher over the coming days and weeks.

Trump is saying the conflict could last 4 or 5 weeks, could be a bit shorter or longer than that. The issue, even after the main conflict has ended, will be terrorist attacks from Iran's proxies, hamas, hezbollah etc - as for oil prices I'm guessing they're spike during the conflict and remain at the very least elevated for some time beyond that until a proper and lasting calm returns to the region

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-raises-number-of-weeks-he-thinks-war-could-last-from-4-to-5/

Google AI :

"BP profits historically surge when oil hits $100 a barrel, as high prices significantly increase revenue while operating costs remain relatively stable. Such scenarios in 2022 generated record-breaking annual profits for BP, exceeding $27.7 billion, and enabled increased share buybacks and dividends for investors.

Key Implications of $100+ Oil for BP:

Massive Cash Generation: Elevated oil prices function as a "cash machine" for BP, driving strong financial performance.

Investor Returns: High prices often trigger larger share buybacks and increased dividends, boosting shareholder value"

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/mar/02/oil-price-us-israel-iran-war-100-dollars-a-barrel-stock-markets-drop-travel-news-updates

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-jumps-10-iran-conflict-could-spike-100-barrel-analysts-say-2026-03-01/

Illegal war? The Iranian regime has murdered nearly 40,000 innocent Iranians in just a few days... are we supposed to just ignore that, turn a blind eye and be like Kier Starmer? Get a grip. The genocide is staring you in the face and all your ilk can do is point the finger a the US and Israel? You people are unreal seriously.

Well... it does look like oil prices are heading higher so being the opportunist that i am, i will very likely be buying in this morning - I've been out of shares for over two years, have just been saving into my ISA but this does look like an opportunity not to be missed. I saw Fresnillo when it was below £5 and hesitated too long - that's now around £40 a share, saw Rolls Royce when it was below £1 that's now around £14. Not going to keep missing the big opportunities! And it does look like oil shares could be the next big one, how long the bull run will last is anyone's guess but below £5 seems a low entry point plus the dividends. Simply wall street by the way has BP fair value at £18.32! 74% undervalued currently! It's going to be an interesting day and few weeks i think, GL all shareholders!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-bp-lse-bp-look-021139871.html

Senior Israeli officials are claiming Khamenei's body has been recovered - almost certain he is dead. The Iranian regime will very soon fall completely. It's extremely unlikely the strait will be closed. Iran doesn't have the military means to close it with such massive American military force in the area. And the regime is already in chaos with the supreme leader likely gone along with senior commanders - they can't fight the US when the chain of command is falling like dominoes. It's quite incredible this is only day one and already the Iranian regime has likely lost the top man and is already in serious trouble. Oil prices may rise temporarily but there's no chance whatsoever of the Iranian regime holding onto power for much longer, not at this rate. The regime will fall very quickly and calm will return. The bigger issue will be the aftermath, the power vacuum and what happens next. But as for this military campaign, the Iranian regime is doomed and will be toppled imminently I would say, probably days rather than weeks.

Zia Yusuf, Reform "November’s +0.3% UK GDP “beat” looks encouraging at first glance, but scratch beneath the surface and the story is weaker - with construction data collapsing.

The “beat” is driven by a one-off rebound in car production, with car production +25.5% after cyber attacks earlier in the year temporarily shut down output.

That’s not new growth, but a mechanical normalisation after an artificial collapse. Strip this out and the underlying economy is barely moving, with the three-month trend being stagnation.

Meanwhile, construction is flashing bright red. Output fell 1.3% in November, extending an already negative trend, and the collapse in new housing construction is particularly alarming.

Public new housing plunged over 10%, private housing and commercial projects are also falling. Firms are clearly pulling back on capital spending"