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There is no need to attack Iran any further. The US blockade of Iranian ports is costing the Iranian regime £500m a day in lost revenue. Their economy is crashing & there are reports military personnel and the police aren't being paid resulting in low morale. The US has a stranglehold on the Iranian regime - and they can keep this up indefinitely. The regime has very limited time remaining before either their own military and police turn on them, or they're forced to concede defeat and fully comply with US demands. And the real kicker, from the perspective of the US at least, is hundreds of tankers have already left the middle east end route for the US; Europe in particular has turned to America for their oil supplies, which is obviously great news for the US. Very low likelihood of further military action - the US blockade is all that's needed to bring the regime to it's knees. It's just a waiting game right now, how long the regime can hang on to power whilst their world crashes down all around them.

£99k and £111k just gone through

Plenty of houses for sale in my area & sold signs & plenty of new developments going up. This government is shockingly appalling and I pray they're kicked out soon, but there does seem to be a growing and increasingly massive divide between stock market valuations and reality. The housebuilders aren't having the best of times it's true, but they're also largely getting on with their jobs and they're busy too. Loads of new developments going up everywhere you go. I'd like to say the problem is people aren't buying and selling but even that isn't true when you see how many For Sale and Sold signs there are no about. The market looks active and busy as usual. The stockmarket reaction is overly pessimistic and really quite disconnected from reality. The words of Warren Buffet spring to mind "Mr Market is a manic depressive" those words couldn't be truer today.

Empty tankers aren't going to just sit in the straight of hornuz indefinitely and wait around. They're already diverting en-masse to the US. Yes, it'll stretch the US to the hilt but they'll respond to demand very quickly. What starts slow will quickly pick up pace. Within a year, the US will comfortably be coping with demand and prices will have stabilised. The US has vast reserves themselves but they also control Venezuela's oil which are the biggest reserves in the world. A year from now, or less, countries that previously relied on the middle east, over exposed to a region long wrapped up in volatility and conflict, will not return. This is the beginning of the end for the middle East's oil dominance - and it is the beginning of total US dominance in the oil market.

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/26/more-than-oil-prices-iran-war-threatens-to-reshape-global-energy-order

Stevebt, all shares in the buyback program have been cancelled. Shares in issue has reduced from 338m in 2024 to 318m today. The free float has tightened considerably and will continue to do so a little more yet until the current buyback program ends

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/vistry-cancels-144000-shares-in-latest-buyback-tranche

Https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/vistry-gets-permission-for-780-new-homes-in-essex-village-following-removal-of-site-from-green-belt/5141902.article

1 day ago : Agreement paves the way for 1,400-home Bristol neighbourhood - one of the largest residential-led regeneration schemes planned in city for generations

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/bristol-city-councils-housing-company-agrees-deal-for-new-1435-home-scheme-96815#:~:text=Bristol%20City%20Council%27s%20housing%20company%20has%20signed%20a%20deal%20with,the%20south%20of%20the%20city.

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/south-west/agreement-paves-the-way-for-1400-home-bristol-neighbourhood-one-of-the-largest-residential-led-regeneration-schemes-planned-in-city-for-generations

According to some media outlets on x, Iran are said to be keen on agreeing a peace deal with the US and ending the conflict, some are saying a deal could be reached imminently, perhaps before the weekend is out. Trump has previously posted on truth social that the US blockade of Iranian ports is costing them $500m in lost revenue per day. On top of that, the Iranian economy is said to be in freefall. It appears the US blockade is working. It's strangling the regime's financial lifeline and forcing them back to the table. As for the US, well they can keep this pressure going indefinitely - it's the regime that was always likely to crumble first. Hopefully there'll be good news coming soon and a lasting end to the conflict.

Shoplifting

Three things that are primarily behind the rise in shoplifting :

1. Lack of policing/won't investigate less than £200/appalling government policies/police generally not interested

2. Self checkouts - one staff member overseeing typically 5+ self checkouts (they can't be everywhere)

3. And here's the biggy... Ever since COVID, shops have foolishly allowed people to put items directly into their own bags rather than using a trolley or basket. They're putting stuff into bags, holdalls, backpacks, sports bags, their own pull trollies - it's impossible for the staff to keep track of it. And when they get to the self checkouts, they only scan a small number of items they've put in their bags, concealing the rest and walking out with it. And to top it all, many shops foolishly ask if you want a receipt, so many simply say "yes gov, I bought that lot from Sainsbury's and I didn't request a receipt".

Retailers have made it impossible for their staff to control shoplifting. Not only that, staff who try to detain shoplifters are likely to be disciplined or sacked. Retailers must honestly be losing an absolute fortune to theft - and the trouble is, they're fuelling the problem by making it so easy for thieves to do what they do. It's madness, absolute madness.

Https://taxpayersalliance.com/analysis-britains-national-debt-has-risen-by-over-186-billion-since-labour-came-into-power/

Dow surging again. Perhaps it's time for the Trump derangement mob to admit he's got it right and they've got it wrong?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

February 2026 : Housebuilder Vistry Group has secured planning permission for the next 700-home phase of its Meridian One development in Enfield, north London.

https://www.propertyweek.com/news/vistry-wins-planning-for-next-700-home-phase-of-enfield-scheme

January 2026 : Homes England announced today that it has successfully entered into a building lease with Vistry for the delivery of 750 homes and a retail convenience store at the former City Hospital site in Birmingham.

The development will comprise the demolition of most of the existing hospital buildings to provide 698 new homes and the conversion of the former infirmary building to provide a further 52 one and two-bedroom apartments.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/homes-england-enters-building-lease-with-vistry-for-former-city-hospital-site-in-birmingham-with-plans-to-deliver-750-new-homes

6 days ago : Homes England and Vistry have agreed a conditional contract to accelerate the delivery of 1,000 new homes at Northstowe, Cambridgeshire.

The latest phase – known as 3B- of the new Northstowe community will also include a new local centre, a primary school and supporting infrastructure, including roads, utilities and green space.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2026/04/14/vistry-agrees-deal-for-next-1000-homes-at-northstowe/

Https://www.building.co.uk/data/top-50-housebuilders-2025/5139664.article

I asked Google AI "What is the true value of Vistry Group"

Google AI : Based on analyses as of early 2026, Vistry Group PLC (VTY.L) is largely considered a "deep value" stock trading significantly below its intrinsic value, with estimates often placing its true worth between £6.40 and £15-£20 per share, compared to a current market price that has recently hovered between £3.20 and £3.70.

This high potential upside (estimated at 54% to over 141% depending on the model) stems from a heavily discounted price following multiple profit warnings and a strategic shift to a Partnerships model.

Estimated "True Value" Metrics (2026)

Intrinsic Value (DCF): Various models estimate the intrinsic value between £6.41 and £8.88, with some bullish analyses suggesting a fair value as high as £15–£20 based on long-term cash generation.

Tangible Asset Value: At the end of 2025, Vistry reported tangible net assets of £2.31 billion, exceeding its market capitalization.

Price/Earnings (P/E): The stock has been trading at a very low P/E ratio of around 7.8x to 8.3x, significantly lower than industry averages.

Key Value Drivers

Partnerships Model Strategy: Vistry is transitioning from traditional housebuilding to a capital-light "Partnerships" model, building affordable homes pre-funded by partners. This reduces capital required and is expected to drive high Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC).

Asset-Backed Safety: The company is trading below its tangible book value, meaning investors are acquiring land and work-in-progress inventory at a discount, effectively getting the operational business for free.

Cash Generation Focus: Despite high net debt earlier in 2025, management is prioritizing debt reduction and cash generation, targeting a net cash position by the end of 2026.

High Dividends/Buybacks: The company has previously outlined plans to return £1 billion to shareholders over three years (ending 2026-2027).

Shorts are primarily betting against this government and their ability to get Britain building, as well as geopolitics. We can't do much about either. We're stuck with this sham government for at least another 1-3 years. And the Iran conflict is what it is and will end when it does. If we had a different government and a more stable world, the housebuilders would be a lot higher - we all know that. The point I'm making is a lot of the issues aren't about the company, it's around circumstances. If that wasn't the case, Vistry would be the only housebuilder that's down and that's obviously not the case. In the meantime, in recent weeks there's been significant buying activity from insiders - which is obviously a good sign. Those running the company know better than anyone how things are going behind the scenes - if they're confident enough to invest large sums of their own money, then small shareholders should draw confidence from that. The UK has a massive housing shortage and a booming population - the housebuilders will roar back at some point, that part is inevitable. It's more a question of when, not if.

The Iran war is the primary reason shares right across the FTSE are down - but it really is only a matter of time before the US gains control of the situation and brings the conflict to an end. The Iranian regime can't square up to the might of the US military and all they have left is the straight of hormuz, which will very soon be brought under full US control if the regime persist in playing these games. Whilst shares are down, there's a rare buying opportunity to be had. Vistry isn't this low for any reason other than the Iran war. The reason we know that is the second positive news comes out that the straight is open and the war may soon be over, the shares don't just bounce hard, they're very near the top of the leader boards. So if the straight does still remain closed going into monday, and much of the FTSE is once again having a red day, it does at least present another opportunity to buy in at a great price knowing what's likely to happen to the share price next time the straight is reopened, which will happen relatively soon in any eventuality as the US isn't going to allow Iran to continue holding the world to ransom like this. Post war, Vistry, I suspect, will rapidly move back to £4.50 - £5.50+ driven higher with any positive news regarding the homes for england funding. The conflict is tiresome and we all want it ended asap but from an investor point of view, it really is a win win situation for those who recognise the opportunity of acquiring now and holding for the medium/long term.

Https://youtu.be/rFzMouI-lhg?si=Ajb96eJiXi8NJ0PA