Member Info for giantsquid

It's not very often you can buy into a share for the dividends and get the shares at a massive discount to fair value, but that's where we are. The war will be over within a month or two at most, Trump clearly wants this thing wrapped up as quickly as possible so he can pull his military out and draw a line on it. The UK already buys most of it's oil from the US, they're our biggest supplier. Which makes you wonder why we even bother with middle eastern oil, f**k the straight of hornuz, just buy more from the US. If Starmer wasn't such an idiot he could have negotiated a deal with the US that might have made buying US oil even more attractive. If Iran is going to play hardball with the passage of oil, the world needs to look elsewhere and bypass the middle east altogether. The US has more than enough oil for our needs.

Lol Iran won't emerge the winner, nor will they be able to wage war against their neighbours. Over 10,000 military targets have already been obliterated. Another 2-3 weeks of this kind of pounding and Iran will be back in the stone age. Defence contracts won't be lost you moron. The US supplies arms right across Europe and the wider world. Arms that can ONLY be bought from the US. The alternative would be to buy from China or Russia and that's never going to happen - a western country disillusioned with America buying Chinese jets, having an intricate knowledge of the workings of Chinese military aircraft? Never going to happen. The entire western world needs America whether they like it or not.

Trump will leave Iran within 2-3 weeks, with or without a deal, with or without the opening of the straight of Hormuz. The UK buys most of it's oil from the US anyway. So we may be forced to increase buying from the US, hence why the US probably doesn't care that much about Hormuz. It's going to anger neighbouring arab states though, who may launch their own military action against Iran to free up the strait. 2-3 weeks from now, if the US sticks to their promises, all that may be left will be a much smaller conflict between arab states and Iran. We may well find inflation fears were ultimately overblown, providing the war doesn't drag on beyond 2-3 more weeks.

The UK has a backlog of 4.3 million homes that are missing from the housing market compared to other European countries. While there is an agreed-upon need for roughly 300,000-400,000 new homes annually to meet demand, construction rates have generally failed to meet these targets.

It's a crazy situation : our population is soaring, in part due to our porous borders but also families are having more kids. And that's getting worse under this government which rewards a lazy, stay at home, unemployed, benefits culture that churns out baby after baby as a means of securing more benefits and a bigger taxpayer funded house. The housebuilders ought to be soaring - and yet they're not thanks largely to the incompetence of this government and the last tory one. Reform would get Britain building again and remove the red tape that's hindering the housebuilders and help ease their costs, such as lower energy prices and less expensive to recruit. They're still way ahead in the polls, have been leading the last 250+ polls - if they win the next general election the housebuilders will not just rally, they'll likely hit new all time highs. It's the one sector that should be absolutely booming to reflect the housing shortage and booming population. It'll happen. There's no other likely outcome. At some point the UK simply has to build substantially more houses to meet the soaring demand. And it's most likely to happen under a strongly Britain first government such as Reform.

Those buying in for the dividends also get a significant margin of safety.... What's not to like about that?! same with TW although this has fallen further so more upside potential. Nav per share is around £4.37 which means the shares are currently trading at a discount of 65% compared to nps.

"Yes it will go lower on Thursday (due to ex dividend)"

It's only 5p per share which would take it down to around £2.55 (negligible fall). The shares are trading well below fair value so any improvement in sentiment around the iran war and energy prices could see this jump sharply, irrespective of the ex dividend date.

I suspect this war will be over very soon. The US will already have abandoned any ideas they had for regime change. This is now about massively degrading the Iranian war machine, getting the oil situation resolved by way of either a deal with the Iranian regime or some kind of military offensive whereby the US takes control. Either way by may/June at the latest I think this conflict will be over and normality will be returning. I also suspect the global hit will have been somewhat overblown by the doom mongers and normality will return somewhat faster than expected. An end to this conflict will come faster than many are anticipating.

My guess is the war in Iran will be over fairly soon. I suspect the US will have already shifted away from trying to establish regime change. Instead, their aim will be to declare job done in terms of having massively degraded the Iranian war machine - there's no question they've already achieved that although there's probably still a few military targets left to take out, on that front it's predominantly job done. The big issue is now oil and restoring normality and getting prices back down - and to do that will either require some kind of deal between the Iranian regime and the US, or the US are going to have to use military force to take control. Either way, Iran can only hold the US off for so long - they're no match militarily. It's hard to see an end right now and it's all doom and gloom, but things could shift very quickly. By may/june at the latest i do think it's highly likely the Iran war will be over. Oil prices will have fallen sharply and much of the doom and gloom around the global economic impact will be seen to have been somewhat overblown. I feel for the long suffering Iranian people who want this appalling murderous regime gone - but an alternative government just isn't there right now, at best it's ramshackle and disorganised. The best the US can do is destroy the Iranian regime's military capability and thus reduce the threat they posed. And then get the hell out of there once the oil situation has been returned to some kind of normality and stability. Regime change is something the Iranian people are going to have to try and force though themselves perhaps by military coup. But as for this conflict, it's always darkest just before dawn - a month or two from now and this war will be firmly in the rear view mirror and the world will be getting back to some sort of normality again.

The Iranian regime are murderous terrorists who've killed tens of thousands of their own people just for protesting. The political left have spent 2 years protesting an alleged "genocide" in Gaza whilst not once have they protested the genocide in Iran by the Iranian regime. The antisemitism coming from these Nazis is off the charts.

A lunatic like Trump? Tens of thousands of innocent Iranians have been murdered by the Iranian regime in the past few weeks alone, simply for protesting. The Iranian people thanked Trump and Israel for going in. So please don't attempt to take the side of the Iranian people in lambasting trump - they would tell you you don't speak for Iranians and have no idea what you're talking about. Had it been left to Starmer and European leaders, the Iranian regime would still be murdering the Iranian people by the thousands. So pipe down.

"It feels like the SP has hit the bottom. Hopefully a steady climb from here"

Inflation was unchanged today because that doesn't take into account the Iran war. Inflation will rise from hereon due to energy prices and interest rates will almost certainly go up putting further strain on the property market. It's tempting at these levels to accumulate, especially on a sunny day when shares are rebounding a little. But it's a false dawn unfortunately. Until the war is officially over, further falls are likely as the global economic situation is worsening by the day. And the longer the conflict drags on, the worse things will get on the financial markets. Trump was recently talking about sending in the marines to secure Hormuz - that would have put the strait under US control. Not sure what's happening regards that plan but it seems like the sensible thing to do - it would at least bring some calm to know Iran no longer has a stranglehold on what passes through the strait. I'm optimistic and reasonably confident the war will be over soon, barring an elevated ongoing risk of drone attacks etc which will probably remain a risk long after a ceasefire is in place. So regards where the bottom is, I think that largely depends on when the war is over. As for the speed of recovery after the war, some are saying energy prices could remain elevated for months even after hostilities end, so it could be a while before shares return to their pre war levels.

The markets have taken a hammering since the Iran war began, mainly due to surging oil and gas prices after Iran effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. However. Plans are being drawn up by a furious and very determined DJT to capture control of the Strait - imminently. And with a high likelihood of success. The war may not be over yet, but signs are now appearing that the energy prices shock that has sent markets plunging all around the world, may soon be over. It's possible we're at or very near the bottom of what could be a deep, V shaped recovery (I'm talking across the markets, not just specifically the housebuilders). The US will soon have complete control over Hormuz - bringing an end to the energy price spike and sending oil and gas prices plunging back down. That'll bring a deep sense of relief all around the world, easing inflation fears and likely sending global markets soaring. It won't be plain sailing though until the Iranian regime have either been wiped out completely or surrendered unconditionally and agreed some kind of ceasefire deal, if the US would even allow that. But it does seem likely the US gaining full control of Hormuz will mark the beginning of what could be a deep, v shaped recovery in the global markets. Could shares tumble further? It's impossible to predict the bottom. However, the US is going to secure Hormuz. It's now officially their aim. And they don't mess around and they easily have the military means to achieve that aim and swiftly. And that's going to have the effect of calming world markets resulting in quite probably a sizeable bounce. So yes, shares *could* go lower, again I'm talking generally here not just the housebuilders. But after so many weeks of relentless falls, probably won't want to be out when the bounce does come, as many shares across a wide range of sectors could jump double digits % on good news coming out of Iran.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/38570370/trump-marines-storm-iran-fortresses-strait-hormuz/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1774171589

JG68.

50,000 innocent Iranians murdered by the Iranian regime in just a few days

They begged and pleaded for help. Had it been left to Europe and the UK, nothing would have been done and the ayatollahs would still be murdered tens of thousands of them every day

But of course people like you with Trump derangement syndrome can't help yourselves can you? Even despite the fact huge numbers of Iranians are CELEBRATING and THANKING the US and Israel for going in and dealing with the regime

It actually makes me happy people like you are underwater. The political left make me sick.

Richard Tice today "SHOCKING BORROWING FIGS:

Another £14.3 bn in Feb 26, 2nd highest ever, despite increased tax receipts as spending out of control

Total borrowed last 11 months £126 bn

Heading for massive overshoot of OBR Spring statement debt forecast for 25/26"

This government doesn't have a clue. Country is heading for bankruptcy.

"Strange behaviour for a business the doom crowd says is duff. The partnerships machine is clearly still working"

Vistry isn't the problem. The Iran war is having a major effect on the markets atm, a very substantial % of the recent falls can be largely attributed to that - fears over rising energy prices leading to higher inflation and interest rate rises etc. Then there's the labour government who couldn't run a bath let alone a country. The share price will do what it does whilst the company gets on with business as per normal. If you're in for the long term, buying at these prices will almost certainly reap big rewards. But it's going to take a change of government - Reform party, to really get sentiment back into the housing sector.

To all you labour voters out there, I hope you're happy. The most appalling, hapless bags of shyte in our country's history. Everything this government touches turns to shyte. The much promised £39bn ain't gonna happen. The country is £3 trillion in debt and this government is burning through £20 billion a month. The markets no longer believe a word this government says. If reform win the next general election you'll see the housebuilders surge. And i do mean surge. Until then, forget it.

Reform party winning the next general election is the only thing that will get the UK housebuilders really motoring again. We need a Britain first approach and people in power who save on waste and put our taxes to work for the benefit of our country and people, as opposed to the Starmer government who puts our taxes to the benefit of foreigners and foreign countries whilst simultaneously screwing our country and the taxpayer. It's the only hope we have. The greens wouldn't deliver, nor would the liberals or any other political party out there. We all just better hope Reform wins when the election comes around. Because the alternatives don't bear thinking about.

"looking to shift the blame onto the government (who incidentally inherited the debt from the boris fiasco during covid)"

remind us again how much chagos is costing the taxpayer? £50 billion i think you'll find. and the fact we own those islands means not one penny of that extortionate sum is necessary. it's £50 billion we don't have to spend so don't blame that on anyone but starmer. this shoddy government has been in power 2 years at what point do they stop blaming everyone else for their ****ups? as for vistry, i'm confident the company will shine in the years to come. but i'll say it again, i'm disgusted by this government and have zero confidence in them.

If i had any confidence in this government to deliver on their £39bn investment into the housing sector id argue this was being manipulated down by those who know what's coming..... Sadly i don't have any confidence in this government and since the country is almost £3 trillion in debt thanks to this government giving away tens of billions to chagos, climate scams etc there's no money left. Vistry would have been the main beneficiary but unless they find £39bn down the back of the sofa, I can't see that investment ever happening.

This issue is this government not the housebuilders. Only a general election and Reform party win would see the housebuilders booming again. Until then, forget it.