Member Info for giantsquid

The current UK unemployment rate is 4.8% for the period of June to August 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the quarter. The number of unemployed people aged 16 and over rose to 1.74 million, and vacancies fell to 717,000.

Unemployment Rate: 4.8% (for the 3-month period of June to August 2025).

Number of Unemployed: 1.74 million people aged 16 and over.

Vacancies: 717,000 in July to September 2025.

Key trends: The unemployment rate has been increasing over the last year, and vacancies have fallen below pre-pandemic levels.

The FTSE is at an all time high, the country is nearly £3 trillion in debt, borrowing under this government is running at £20bn a month - £billions of that being interest payments alone, we're governed by the most unpopular government in our country's history - the prime minister having the lowest approval rating of any pm in our country's history, governed by a government that consistently puts foreign interests before the interests of our own country - including only yesterday and announcement to give £100m of taxpayer cash to Pakistan to pay for, wait for it, CONDOMS. And then there's £35bn for carbon capture machines (which do the same job as TREES which cost absolutely nothing at all) and £50bn for CHAGOS - an island chain we already own. Come November, millions of taxpayers are going to be asked to pay for all this stupidity when they put everyone's taxes up. And that means more hardship for already struggling families - and businesses. Employers won't be able to afford to recruit. Jobs will be lost. Unemployment will continue to go up. Overtime will be cut. And ultimately mortgage holders are going to increasingly default on their loans - and lenders will be forced to take action. We all desperately want some positivity and for sentiment to return - but i strongly suspect we're seeing a false dawn right now, driven in part by blissful ignorance of what's coming down the track later this year. There's also the small matter of the AI bubble and the increasing threat of a global crash, and a war in Ukraine that Trump is beginning to lose all patience with. We all want peace and stability and positivity and sentiment back - but the world is a mess, the UK an even bigger mess, and with global markets at an all time high at such a perilous time -it's impossible not to feel extremely concerned and uneasy for what the future holds - both in the short and longer term.

Lol the budget will be nothing short of a train crash. Be prepared because it's going to be awful.

The government has wasted £billions of taxpayer cash on stupid causes, many completely unnecessary like the chagos surrender, and now they're going to put everyone's taxes up to pay for it all. Which means things are about to get even tougher for millions of families who are already struggling. The future is truly bleak under this appalling government. As for the promised £39bn injection into the housing sector - forget it. The country is broke - as Thatcher once said "the trouble with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" and that's exactly where we are right now. Housebuilders aren't going to build homes they know they won't sell and when the budget lands, things are going to get much harder for everyone. The future is grim, truly grim. And there's a long way to go til the next general election.

Drone delivery vehicles is possibly the dumbest idea ever. If an item fell from the drone and injured someone or worse, the company using it would be sued into oblivion and forced to ground their entire drone fleet. Then there's the high likelihood of them being brought down by criminals or fired at to get to the parcel. There's also the risk drones could be used for criminal purposes which could result in all drones being grounded, particularly if one was used in a terrorist attack. Then there's the noise nuisance, the risk they pose to aircraft, the risk they pose to sensitive military bases and other sensitive sites. Whilst small scale drone operation can have its benefits in certain industries, there's a limit to how far we can safely take it. It's not something that can be massively scaled up and rolled out across the retail sector for example - the risks and dangers far outweigh any precieved benefits.

Mobico is currently trading around £60m below net asset value, so the stock is very much in oversold territory. Mobico's net asset value is reported as £220.9 million as of the 2024 financial year end. Long-term who knows what the future holds, short to medium term i suspect this will move into the 30s and maybe the low 40s and largely stay there until such news lands that the company has properly turned a corner, then things could get interesting considering the substantial upside potential. Plenty of investors are watching, waiting and for now just opting to stay on the sidelines and see how things pan out. It's certainly one to watch but like many investors i don't currently see any particular urgency to buy in, not yet anyway.

£349.2 million on creating critical economic infrastructure such as bridges, renewable energy, ports and sea defences in the Caribbean.

£558.6 million on increasing provision of and access to impartial news and information (BBC World Service) in English and local languages across the developing world.

£127.6 million on building refugee resilience and inclusion in Turkey.

£212.8 million on support for health and £42.7 million on a partnership for Agile Governance and Climate Engagement in Nigeria.

£34.9 million on strengthening the ability of Pakistan’s health system to recover from COVID-19 and build future resilience.

£120.4 million on improving local Government ability to deliver local infrastructure services in Nepal.

£95 million on strengthening societal and economic resilience in Jordan, including expanding contributory social insurance schemes and supporting expansion of tax-financed social-assistance schemes.

£149.7 million on pioneering climate investment in India, £120 million on a Climate and Environment programme for Bangladesh and £108 million on a Climate Investment Fund for Pakistan.

£23.8 million on a Freedom and Resilience Programme in the Western Balkans to address structural issues including ethno-nationalist division, government transparency and accountability.

£26.7 million on improving the effectiveness, accountability and transparency of economic policies in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

£38.1 million on a climate smart jobs programme in Uganda.

£5 million on a Rights, Inclusion, Voice and Agency programme to empower women, girls and excluded groups in Nepal.

£99 million on transforming education and £20.6 million on accelerating economic transformation in Ethiopia.

£40.8 million on stabilising the deforestation frontier in Colombia.

£3.2 million on reducing inequality and exclusion experienced by LGBTI people in the Caribbean.

£9 million on supporting resilience, governance and economic reform in Moldova.

£4.8 million on a Roads Development Programme in Liberia.

£2.6 million on deepening democracy in Mozambique.

£320,922 on arts-based approaches to tackling gender based and racialised violence in Esmeraldas, Ecuador.

£184,611 on documenting femicide through research, film and participatory ceramic art in Vietnam.

£181,345 on developing art based public engagement and advocacy model for transforming social norms on gender-based violence in the Andean region.

£36,941 on supporting parliamentary reform, health for girls and environmental waste management in Mbabane, Eswatini

PM's decision to recognise a state of Palestine could lead to UK paying £2trillion in reparations

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15118203/PMs-decision-recognise-state-Palestine-UK-2trillion-reparations.html

Yes you're right saintly - the budget, national debt, government borrowing, the economy, interest rates, inflation, confidence in the government.... None of these things are relevant for investors are they? None of these things affect the housing market? None of these things affect the housebuilding sector?

Shall we just ignore these things and pretend they're not relevant?

The reason the housebuilders are on the floor is because of terrible decisions made by this government. Politics has never been more relevant to conversation on these boards. The housebuilders will bounce back - one day (under a change of government). Until then, with big tax rises on the way in the upcoming budget, things are only going to get harder and harder for millions of families and that's more bad news for the housebuilders. Job losses are also on the up to make matters worse. Yes we might not like to talk about the elephant in the room but ignoring the bigger picture doesn't make these things go away.

Oh look another £11.6 billion now being pledged by the government for tackling climate change overseas - we're up to our eyeballs in debt but the madness just continues

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/26/ed-miliband-labour-honour-pledge-11bn-overseas-climate-aid

Andrew Neil today "Yet more reasons why UK taxes are going to rise substantially in the November budget.

Government borrowing now £11.4bn more than forecast so far this financial year — £83.8bn borrowed since April after the state borrowed another £18bn in August (of which £8.4bn went to service debt interest)

The highest August figure for five years and £5.5bn higher than the official forecast.

So far this financial year borrowing is £11.4bn above the £72.4bn projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March"

Andrew Neil today "Yet more reasons why UK taxes are going to rise substantially in the November budget.

Government borrowing now £11.4bn more than forecast so far this financial year — £83.8bn borrowed since April after the state borrowed another £18bn in August (of which £8.4bn went to service debt interest)

The highest August figure for five years and £5.5bn higher than the official forecast.

So far this financial year borrowing is £11.4bn above the £72.4bn projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March"

Richard Tice just now "DIRE DIRE Govt borrowing figs just our Aug 25

Totally out of control

£18 billion in Aug alone, 44% more than OBR expected, highest for 5 years

Borrowed £84 billion this financial yr, £16 billion more than in 2024

Labour is bankrupting Britain"

The big issue at the moment is investors have no confidence in this government, can see the enormous damage they're doing to our country and they can't predict how much worse things are going to get. So many are opting to stay out until a general election is called, then assuming Reform are still way ahead in polls we'll likely see a surge in interest and buying activity. That'll be the time to buy in. Until then, nobody is interested

A Reform government would get the country back on it's feet and moving in the right direction again. Zia Yusuf & Farage recently tweeted the government is in chaos and they're preparing for government. An early general election looks likely. Until then, all investors can do is ride it out and wait for these incompetent cretins to be kicked out and just hope they don't bankrupt us and result in a 1976 style IMF bailout which would crash the markets. Better days will come but not until labour have been kicked out.

Zia Yusuf, Reform:

"Reformers:

This Starmer regime is on the brink of collapse.

What replaces him will be even worse, and international credit markets will plunge Britain into a crisis.

Enough to make an early general election much more likely.

Please know what time it is.

We must be ready. 🇬🇧"

"ocado would never grow with Kroger"

Jeez, I've heard it all now lol. £45bn market cap company and you're trying to convince everyone Ocado is better off without them? Lol That might be a tough sell that one

The best thing the government could do right now would be to cancel the chagos surrender and instantly save the country £50 billion - common sense considering we own the effing islands in the first place and this appalling "deal" didn't even need to happen, yet of course they won't do it. Next would be to stop the £8 million a day we're spending on illegal immigrants and begin mass deporting. Taxpayer cash is being squandered left right and centre - and none of it is to the benefit of the country or the British people. Where's this £39bn investment into the housebuilding sector going to come from? The country is broke - we simply don't have the money. Reeves will be raising all our taxes yet again in the October budget in a desperate attempt to plug the £50 billion black hole her government has created - it's not going to be pretty. Families will be feeling the pain more than ever and will be forced to tighten the belt even more. And Inflation will continue to go up as businesses are forced to put up their prices due to their own spiralling costs. We're in a doom loop and nothing will change until this terrible government is kicked out. A Reform government would set about reversing the damage - then and only then will confidence and hope return to the housebuilding sector.

How the hell did National Express, a £4.50 per share top notch FTSE company (pre COVID) end up at 25p? Was it COVID or shockingly bad management that caused this? Total debt is around £1.2bn? Is that correct?

New housebuilding Quarter 2, 2025 Report

The number of residential units approved fell by 6% during the second quarter of 2025, extending the decline seen during the first three months of the year. At 48,022, the number of units approved was 23% down on the second quarter of 2024 and the lowest quarterly total since 2012

https://www.hbf.co.uk/research-insight/new-housing-pipeline/