Member Info for giantsquid

i'm reading nav = £220m

nav per share is around 36p

so currently trading below nps - to put into perspective, it's not unusual for companies to trade at 15 to 20 times nav per share, particularly on the aim market

26p does seem pretty darn cheap - if this was some ****pot pie in the sky aim company selling questionable garbage you could understand it, but a major transport company at a time when climate and travelling green are high on the agenda? this surely is going to turn around and recover strongly in the years ahead?

Back in 2022, I posted on general chat a few shares that had fallen heavily and may be worth a punt. One of them was McBride (MCB) which was 16p at the time - they make detergents for companies including Aldi but had financial issues at the time due to COVID-19 and nobody knew if they were going to survive. Needless to say they did and went on to rise nearly 1000%. Unfortunately i took My eye off the ball and didn't invest and only saw the recovery much later on. So these meteoric rises do happen - is this another such example we should all be jumping on is the million dollar question?

I've seen numerous interviews on TV where the host has asked the government a very simple question "if you're ending the usage of hotels for asylum seekers, where do you intend to house them" yesterday, Jeremy Kyle asked a Labour MP that very question TEN TIMES and didn't once get a straight answer

This morning the BBC asked Rachel Reeves that very question - all she could come up with was "those who have no right to be here will be deported" (at which point the BBC gave up and moved on) however, what they should have said to her was that's all very well but (a) where will they be moved to while their claims are being processed? and (b) those who aren't deported, whose numbers could very well be in the many tens of thousands, where are THEY going to be moved to if not hotels? Labour can't answer that question, or more accurately, refuse to,because where these countless thousands of illegals are likely going to be housed is in the thousands of new homes labour are vowing to build, all at the cost of taxpayers - whilst taxpayers themselves, including indigenous brits on the housing list desperately waiting for a home, will very likely be put to the back of the queue. Ordinarily huge cash being injected into the house building sector might be reason to feel optimistic - not so in this case. Just like Chagos, Gibraltar, Winter fuel payments, shafting British farmers and handing huge sums of money to African farmers far away from the UK, everything this government does and is doing is to the detriment of the UK and the indigenous population. It's impossible to feel any sense of optimism with this lot in power because they're running the country into the ground and saddling us with enormous debt that'll continue to drag us down for years and years after they've gone. The bigger picture right now is truly dire.

The markets seem rattled this morning by news Israel could strike Iran within days

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-has-plans-for-immediate-counterattack-if-israel-strikes-nuclear-facilities-nyt-reports/

So the government is vowing to move illegal migrants out of their 4 star hotels and presumably straight into the new build houses which taxpayers are paying for? And this is good news for the country is it? And what happens if you're not an illegal migrant and you're on the waiting list for a new home? Are we right in speculating the indigenous population will go to the back of the housing queue? And what effect do we think the handing out of thousands of free new build homes is going to have on the small boat crossings once word gets around? Sure injecting huge cash into the house building sector may temporarily lift the share price, but just how much is any of this going to benefit the indigenous British people? And don't forget, taxpayers are paying for it. It's difficult, if not impossible, to feel anything other than despair at the damage this government is doing to our country and the sheer recklessness of it all. The way things are going, the UK will be bankrupt by the time this government is kicked out in 2029. Would i invest in the housing sector right now to capatilise on what labour is doing? No. Absolutely not. If i felt we had a government that puts GB first and is truly working for the benefit of the British people, i would absolutely invest. But that's not what's going on here under this government and it's important to always look at the bigger picture.

We have a government that inflicts damage on our country in everything it does. It's impossible to have an optimistic outlook and invest with any confidence.

If you draw a line from the low of 2016 (75p bottom approx) to the low of 2020 (£1.20 bottom approx) i think there's a chance the share price may briefly fall back to that line, which would be around £1.70 sometime this year probably over the next few months or so. If you do the same for the last couple of peaks, that has the share price peaking at £7+ sometime around 2026/27. Of course charts don't always mean patterns can be relied on - I'm simply speculating what I think MIGHT happen.

Still waiting for this to drop below £2 so I can take a position, preferably to about £1.60-£1.80 going by the charts I think that might be possible? I've been blowing on it to try and make it go down a bit but so far it's not working lol. The miners will explode back up either later this year or 2026/27 probably to all time highs. The next bullrun is not far away, we're currently at or very near the bottom here i would say.

It seems bird flu is on the rise in the US - next pandemic? I personally doubt we'd see anything like covid again but there's a lot of dubious people in high places who'd love nothing more than to disrupt Trump's second term with another call for lockdowns. Stay at home orders would of course be good news for ocado home delivery service - there's also the ongoing threat the Ukraine crisis could end up escalating into direct military conflict between Russia and Nato. We all thought Trump would have got it ended by now - but increasingly, the US seems to be siding more with Ukraine now and losing patience with Moscow. Indeed, Putin overnight launched further massive drone strikes - it's beginning to look unlikely Trump is going to be able to stop this war? Of course a war with Russia would decimate the markets although that'd probably be the least of anyone's concerns.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20250429/Global-Virus-Network-urges-action-to-prevent-H5N1-pandemic.aspx

If the charts are anything to go by, somewhere around £1.80 should be the bottom. After that a 2-3 year long rise will be underway topping out around £7. The miners are highly cyclic. The next 2-3 year bull run should be underway either late 2025 or early 2026

Tariffs could potentially cause Shein some trouble - not sure how much it might affect them but they may suffer indirectly in some way and have to raise their prices etc? Or possibly it might lead to problems with manufacturing and supply? Who knows, maybe MMs suspect there could be a bit of a bounce coming down the road for Boohoo and Asos on the back of Chinese tariffs and are walking this down for that very reason, ie they're accumulating in advance of a likely sharp rise?

Simply wallstreet has fair value at 48p

Unless Trump's tariffs in some way hurt Shein, I can't see much of a future for Shein's competitors - they're always going to be cheaper and more popular. Boohoo and Asos had a good run but those heady days of dominating the market are long gone.

The Dow is up 5% since announcement of the 90 day pause - presumably the EU is exempt from the pause as they retaliated same as China..

There are many bargains out there right now. The housebuilders, BP, ocado, croda, diageo, Glencore, easyjet - take your pick. The turbulence will go on a while yet so many shares may well continue to slide, although i think by summer the bottom could be in and a recovery underway.

Lows being retested before moving back up, it's often how it goes. MMs accumulating on the way down, selling back into the market on the way up - it's how they make their money

If the charts are anything to go by, this will bottom at around £1.60 before moving back above £5 by 2026/27

Shares are sinking in large part because we have a government that is wrecking the country at every opportunity.

The Ocado Smart Platform (OSP) harnesses the power of artificial intelligence, robotics and automation to solve the unique demands of online grocery.

Thin margins, varied basket sizes and multiple temperature regimes are just a few of the challenges that retailers need to solve to drive profitable growth in online grocery.

We’ve been developing technology to tackle this complexity for over 20 years, and this has given us an exceptional testbed for innovation.

With over 3000 patents to our technology granted and filed and over 2,500 technologists in our team, we operate at the cutting edge of software and hardware engineering.

https://www.ocadogroup.com/solutions/our-technology

The long and short of it is, if the technology works, if it saves companies money and crucially, if it's PATENTED and cannot be easily replicated, that would constitute a MOAT, ie something very unique about the company which if in great demand could prove extremely lucrative in the years ahead.

Trump is trying to end the Ukraine war. If Harris had won, the outlook for peace would be a hundred times more bleak and global markets would be plummeting. A third world war would destroy global markets - it would be a black swan event on a scale never seen before, although our finances would be the least of our concerns. So maybe be thankful there's a peace time president occupying the WH instead of a warpig like Starmer and Macron.

The JV with Kroger could prove a total game changer here if all goes well over the coming years - it's one of the world's biggest retailers, America's biggest supermarket chain, market cap twice that of tesco at nearly £50bn. Assuming ocado's technology can't be copied, is well protected etc which presumably it is, and assuming it continues to save other companies a lot of money and prove it's worth, then we could see mass rollouts which would have a very dramatic effect on the share price.

https://ir.kroger.com/overview/default.aspx