Member Info for G_G_G

Well that didn't take long. WTI now about to break $86. The fact our sp has dropped 1-2% when it's already so under-valued speak volumes about how inefficient the market can be in reality. WTI will break $90 if OPEC makes a 1mbopd cut. Reckon we'll be in the low 30's in 3 weeks. GLA

Meanwhile Brent has just re-broken $90 and WTI is pushing to break $85. If there's an OPEC cut this week then expect WTI to move above the $90 mark they want as a floor. This means our incremental oil heavy production is churning out more cash and we should push into the 30's on that alone. Who knows what value this translates to if the Serenity appraisal well announces 100m barrels in less than 3 weeks. Looking like the wind is behind us folks.

I have the Serenity result penciled for Monday 24th October, which is less than 3 weeks now. Anyone care to guess the sp on the day preceding the result? Providing poo stays in the 80's I'm going with 32p. If poo should step up to the 90's on the back of a +1mbopd OPEC cut then I'll go with 34p. I think the countdown clock will be operating in earnest from next week. Horrible to say given global inflation but I'm hoping OPEC gives poo a good shot in the arm this week. AIMHO GLA

Fantastic turnaround this week. Providing poo and gas don't drop off a cliff then I think we're in for a few more +10% weeks before the Serenity result. Low to mid 30's would be a great place to be sitting before we get news. And as Hereford has pointed out we could be in for a +24kboepd announcement in the days following the appraisal well. There's an easy 50% from here on a modest, but commercial Serenity result. If they make the case for 100m barrels then I'd expect at least a doubling of the current sp. Looking forward to next week. GLA

About time we broke £300m. Next stop £350m (30p) over the next 3.5 weeks. I'll be happy with anything in the 30's before the Serenity result. Hopefully poo and gas will be supportive in this time as well. Nothing worse than cratering commodity prices when transformational news is due. Certainly looking like there's more upside versus downside for O&G prices in the coming weeks / months. We're also fortunate there's no Fed Reserve meeting until November so can't get smashed by an interest rate hike, which has a negative impact on our commodities. Good strong +25p end to the week is needed now. AIMHO GLA

Still very cheap for late investors. I've been saying for a while we should be mid to high 30's just before the announcement. I don't think we'll rise to that level but do expect us to break £350m mcap (30p) pre-news. That still wouldn't take us to our Canadian peer average on past performance (keeping in mind we're now a 22kboepd producer, and will be a 24kboepd by year-end), so would leave a lot of upside for investors in the success case for Serenity. We should be in the 30's on Canadian production alone right now. Hopefully the market is just starting to wake up. Strengthening poo and gas will certainly help. Just 3.5 weeks to go now. GLA

Oil flying. Just need another month of it climbing to the $90's and a +100m appraisal and WE'RE GONNA BE RICH!!! :)))

Very little volume today given the news, which is a good thing. I imagine most have taken their positions and anyone entering now will start to pay a premium. Poo only going one way given tight global supply, Ukraine conflict, Autumn / Winter seasonality, EU oil ban (December), Hurricane season, US finishing strategic reserve release, Iran nuclear deal off the table. I've probably even forgotten something. Looking forward to the climb and eventual result. GLA

Agree with many statements here that we've lost a very strong member of the i3e team. Graham was certainly the more engaging and articulate of the dynamic duo. He has done a great job. Graham is right in saying he is leaving a thriving company that is going from strength to strength, even if the sp doesn't currently testify to this. There's certainly very few companies on LSE / AIM that can make this claim. Graham's brother was no doubt instrumental in picking up the Canadian assets, which has been the key to our turnaround. And although Majid is far from the most inspiring ceo one can think of, he's certainly a clever bloke. Take a look at his CV, which is bl@@dy impressive and includes an MBA (amongst other qualifications) from LBS, arguably the best business school in the world. The team isn't as strong having lost Graham, but Majid's brain plus his brother's shrewd deal making should do us well. Majid should bring onboard Ryan for future interviews if he's half as charismatic as Graham. Just three and a half weeks to go now. All to play for here. AIMHO GLA

Oh and as for being a 'failed trader', taking into account whatever the f@ck 'trader' means in your lexicon. Given you are one of those voyeur types who likes to look into people's posting background, then you'd know the number of shares I have in my 2 x AIM stocks i3e and hzm. I'm 44 years old Stummer and that's just my AIM portfolio. I mostly get things right, but I'd hazard a guess that my investing strategy works a whole lot better than yours when I get things wrong. Good luck with RMM, and do me a favour and put me back in the green coffin would you.

There was not 'told you so' to anyone Strummer. Just a reminder that being a self-righteous pr@t doesn't always work out. And as I've said many times, I'm not a trader. I live near one, who moves money back and forth against resistance levels using all sorts of charts 10 times a day. That's called trading. But moving money in and out of AIM stocks over months and years isn't. I simply invest my money where I think I'll get the best return at any point in time. And if I feel that return isn't going to happen, or worse I'm going to make a loss, then I sell (even at a loss). And yes my money is safely back in i3e earning me 7.5% yield (paid monthly) and about to climb on its major well in the Nth Sea plus recently increased production to 22kboepd. The only lessons for me is I shouldn't have moved money out of my preferred haven, and I should have sold everything earlier. Looks like you're staying to the end. Good luck with that. At least you can tell everyone how you didn't 'trade' as you go down with the RMM titanic. Well done old boy.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/446815/north-sea-discovery-surpasses-billion-dollar-valuation/

Now that's more like it.

Production up. POO and Gas up. SP down and bouncing off support levels. The market really is full of monkeys.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Are-About-To-Reverse-Course.html

Sums up my thinking on short term O&G prices.

Stas, agree to an extent, but from my pov it's always better to be sitting on a higher sp in the lead up to an important drill. It gives us a higher launch point (and end-point) in the success case. And if the drill fails, we have further to drop to get back to these levels.

Wonderful news. The market hasn't woken up yet, which is fine as we may get one more divi reinvestment opportunity in the 20's before Serenity news. The good thing is just after we hear about Serenity the company will confirm end of October production rates near 24kboepd. Even better is at the current production trajectory we'll be nearing 30kboepd by end of H1 2023. Even if commodity prices stay at this level, there's no way the sp won't appreciate to the 30's by mid next year, regardless of whether Serenity is a success. Just goes to reinforce how Serenity is effectively a free drill up to the low 30's if you have a 6-9 month horizon. And if there is a drop post Serenity you get a divi currently yielding 7.5% while you wait for the sp to rebound.

Again though, it would be nice if mgt can be more positive when updating the market on their progress. Our rns's are straight up uninspiring, like a Majid interview, especially when you consider the content is always good or great. The fact they didn't mention anything about what we're targeting in the Nth Sea is an example of how a few words can change the way an investor responds. Someone glancing at a Serenity rns has to go and research what we're going after, when it should be written as a matter of course in every rns and piece of publicity on the appraisal well. It should also be clearly spelled out it's an appraisal well in a prolific area, near established infrastructure, and not some wildcat in the middle of nowhere. If they were as engaging and positive about the company as they were when we had nothing but some Nth Sea acreage the sp would be much higher. The difference is they're now allowed to be optimistic as they've been hitting the ball out of the park in Canada for a couple of years. It's time they got some swagger back. And if not, they can't blame shareholders for accepting a 40p t/o offer if one arrives. Even with Serenity yet to come in I'd take 40p tomorrow. And I imagine a lot of our other large investors are probably thinking the same. AIMHO GLA

And as if by magic poo is now green. Expecting much more of that colour in the months to come for both oil and gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/An-Oil-Supply-Shock-May-Be-Imminent.html

Isdeer, I'm expecting the sp to drop back to this level on a duster for a brief period of time. Having said this I believe we'll be closer to 30p on getting the result. If indeed we do have a duster then I'd expect the sp to climb again toward the 30's in December to February with higher commodity prices and strong expected H2 results. Do people on here seriously expect gas prices to drop, or tread water, over the next 6 months? People seem to be forgetting they're also adding 3kboepd by year end, of which most is oil. That's about 15% incremental production funded entirely from cash (no debt). And even at today's prices we're making a fortune on that incremental production alone. The divi yield is currently circa 7.5% and is covered by multiples based solely from current production and current commodity prices. If you add another 3kboepd (mostly oil) by year-end it's not hard to see they can continue to grow production toward 30kboepd by end-2023, and still pay a very healthy dividend. At the moment Serenity is a free drill. I'm expecting traders will start to position themselves based on this knowledge from next week knowing failure won't mean they lose anything, rather they'll be stuck here for a few months but also getting a nice 7.5% divi for their time. Even at 30p I see this as a no lose bet over 3 months post result. Sometimes the market gives you a gift, which is what we happen to be right now.

By the way eog is nothing like us. They're straight up binary on this drill. Very little current production. Very little cash generation. Very little cash in the bank. Very little incremental production in the near term. No dividend, let alone offering a 7.5% yield. The list goes on... Having said this if we strike commercial oil they'll go up more than us. But folks need to keep in mind we own 75% of the oil that's found i.e. 3x eog's share. And we're adding 3kboepd over the next 3 months. Quite a difference as Tony has pointed out to some of the less well informed eog investors. AIMHO GLA

Over 10% of the wait has now gone (4 days since spud). I wonder when people will start buying in here...? My guess is we're at our bottom now and the climb will begin next week. Hoping for 30p to be our springboard level on success. Fully expecting the price of O&G to climb over the next 4 weeks as well. The £ dropping also does nothing to us given O&G basket is priced in US$. Makes it easy to maintain the dividend when the £ has dropped by 20% against its 5 year US$ average. Doesn't make it any less frustrating to see us in the low 20's though. GLA

Thanks for the link Tony. I literally just finished reading the article. Good to see they've mentioned a number of the same things as my last message :) Can't see prices dropping much lower than now over the coming 6 months (Autumn / Winter period). We've just put the heater on for the first time in a while today. It's only going to get colder from now. And AECO is only going one way. We just need a good result in Serenity. Anything above 50m barrels (20m recoverable) and we're on for a mini re-rate. If the result supports their interpretation and +50m recoverable is achievable then I'd be surprised if we're not in the 40's. And if we hit the jackpot with 100m recoverable then 60p would be my target. All to play for here.

DPOW that's why NOI and fcf multiples are the most important measures. By looking at companies through such financial lenses you can compare peers more accurately. And as Tony has pointed out many times when making these comparisons i3e is one the 3 most under-valued O&G producers in Canada from a basket of +50 companies. Some posters may not appreciate the way Tony challenges them, but he's normally objective and the workings he provides I personally find to be very helpful.

Tony, you were wondering whether I think it's squeaky bum time for O&G prices. My answer is No. Ukraine / Russia is going to continue for years. Sanctions will also. And Russian production will start to drop from next year. This combined with OPEC struggling to hit their targets and I think the supply side will remain constrained. China re-opening post Xi's next term being confirmed, alongside India's insatiable appetite, will support demand. And Iran being let back onto the scene isn't going to happen in the near term. All combined I think $80-100 for WTI/Brent can be expected for the next 12-24 months barring another pandemic like shutdown. A major, protracted global recession will dampen demand, but this will be met by OPEC constraining supply to keep prices above $80. They learnt to do this during the pandemic, and Russia has given them a gift of limited competition. I don't think they're going to give this gift away and US producers have also learnt lessons from the last price war. And of course Gas prices are only going one way this winter. And with the amount of gas the US is selling to Europe, AECO prices are going to increase significantly as well. So no worries on the price front for me. It's really only what we find (or not) in 4 weeks time that keeps me thinking at this time of night :) GLA