Member Info for G_G_G

Agree with your last email spike. The eog ceo interview alludes to them being somewhat restrained with this well. If the case for +50m recoverable barrels is made with this well then I expect us to move into the 40's. Given we should be valued in the mid to high 30's on Canadian production alone (being mid-point on Canadian O&G producer multiples), then I don't believe this to be much of a stretch. If we're still in the 30's with these additional reserves then it would also make us very attractive to a bigger fish. Looking forward to the result. AIMHO GLA

Oh I forgot to mention the wording of the rns's related to Serenity in general have been quite disappointing. They really should be including basic things such as the level of resources they're targeting and reinforcing this is an appraisal well. The wording has all the excitement of a Majid interview. Understandable given our history in the Nth Sea, but the company has been transformed by mgt's excellent stewardship so they're entitled to be a bit more positive / optimistic in their comms. AIMHO

I'm personally not worried in the slightest about the current sp. If we're still in the mid 20's nearer Serenity result then yes I'll be annoyed, but ultimately we're going to be valued in 5 weeks on what they discover (or not). I'm expecting low 30's in 4 weeks and intend to hold everything until the announcement. People also need to keep in mind we have dividends to reinvest, so if the sp is still in the 20's in 3 weeks then I imagine every man and his dog will put their money straight back into the company. Main thing is the countdown has begun. Barring any mishaps we're either going to be back at this level in 5 weeks, or we could be anywhere from 40-70p depending on the estimated size of the field. From what I can tell they're being a little more conservative in how far they're stepping out so this well is more about proving their interpretation of the seismic and geology, rather than delineating the full size of the field. More wells will be required for this to happen, and hopefully they'll put some into Minos High and Liberator. I like this approach if I'm correct, but it could mean less of a spike in the success case on this well. All very exciting. It's now about sitting back for the ride.

Hello fellas, still here and confidently holding just over 4.5m shares. I'm on holiday at the moment in a lovely part of the world so have only been checking in every now and then. Like many I'm disappointed at the sp decline. I imagine we'll start to see some +ve movement in the days and weeks post Serenity spud. I agree mgt could do better at generating some excitement about what they've been doing. It's a great story and the first half numbers are worth a hell of a lot more than our current mcap. The tragedy is the market often only pays attention to headlines such as 9% reduction in forecast NOI without looking at any valuation multiples on the $200m the company is confident in hitting. Fwiw I think we'll beat that number, but it doesn't change the fact the overall message was missed, due to a relatively minor adjustment to a fantastic story. Mgt can change the current sp malaise by getting some new headlines into the market about Serenity, and some of the Canadian wells being brought online in Q3. I'm looking to hold until Serenity news now, and not looking to top slice at all. For unknown reasons I don't see us higher than the low 30's before Serenity breaks, which is well below fair market value on current production let alone our 24kboepd end of year forecast, so I don't see any value in top slicing. Worst case scenario I see the sp dropping back to 25p on a duster, but then rising again to the low 30's once we get H2 numbers in February. So I'm viewing this as a no risk drill when it comes to sp value over the next 6 months. I also get a few more dividend payments while I wait a few months for the sp to rebound. The upside is a doubling of the current sp if they hit 50m recoverable barrels of oil. So from my perspective I get a free bet on an incremental £0.5m (25m recoverable boe) to £2m (100m recoverable boe). Everyone will have their own investment strategy for the next 6 weeks. Mine has crystalised in the past couple of weeks with the recent results and 2022/23 outlook, plus the fact the sp looks unlikely to offer a premium to take money off the table pre-Serenity drill results. If we're in the high 30's in 4 weeks then I may change my mind and bank 1m shares, but the current market makes that seem unlikely at the moment. Anyway that's my thoughts for now. GLA

Very good rns. Mgt are truly great operators. They're the kind of exec team that builds $bn companies. Very happy to be invested here. The slow climb will happen pre-drill results. I expect the starting gun to be spud announcement. I also expect low 30's pre-news. I was hoping for mid to high 30's but not sure that's being realistic. For some reason i3e needs to shake the market for it to wake up. It will make no difference if they strike commercial black gold. Let's hope it happens in 5 short weeks from now. Either way this is a no-brainer as always. The results are excellent and the outlook is fantastic. To think we'll be producing 24kboepd in 15 weeks, paying a circa 6.8% yield, and valued at £300m is plain silly.

Something I cannot quite work out is whether $30m is our net cash position i.e. accounting for debt. The rns refers to $30m cash and cash equivalents, but makes no mention of debt, which I believe is circa $30m. So we could be at break-even. Either way we're debt free. But it does make a significant difference to some short term options e.g. share buybacks. Thoughts?

Guys, I think you'll find that if a bid was to come in the coming weeks (it won't) the offer would most likely be in the 40-45p range. Why bid higher when there's a few other companies on the same exchange that would represent similar value. We are of course debt free with huge organic growth potential in Canada alone, but the market isn't valuing a lot of our peers in a similar manner. Having said that, if Serenity is a commercial hit, then who knows what we're worth. Fwiw if a bid in the 40's came in tomorrow I'd be absolutely thrilled. Assuming Serenity is a duster, we'd have to wait at least another 18 months to get to this level providing commodity prices stay at the same level and we execute a similar sized capital program next year. Bird in the hand blah blah.

I sold 50k at 22.7p this morning. Had they given me a quote for 100k I would have sold more. And had my work not kicked off this morning I probably would have bitten the bullet in the low 22's and cleared everything left. Like I said, lucky. Sorry for those of you still holding. Not sure what comes next, but this is such a monumental mess that I'm lost for words. The fact Multi has sold out says it all.

Pain, I was also surprised I could sell 200k after the news dropped. I also agree the nature of how they've left a lot of question marks stinks to high heaven. The sp has no base due to the lack of clarity provided. And yes it does look as though someone is hoovering up shares in the background. Rotten.

That's me out. Reckon I offloaded my 1.25m for an average of 20p in the end. The last 2 x 100k blocks at 15.5-16p just now really hurt. Absolute mess and thank god I started to cut my holding a couple of weeks ago, although I never thought this would happen. I just wanted to shift my money to something that I felt less nervous about. Lucky in many ways. Good luck holders, I think you're going to need it after that rns. I'm off.

Jesus I'm happy hat I've been reducing here over the past few weeks. Been painful to actualize a circa £60k loss but got down to 200k shares remaining now. I'll lose another 20k if I sell the remaining, which is painful to say the least. I sold 50k this morning and was about to dump the remainder but had work commitments. Not sure why companies make statements like this. The sp base is impossible to ascertain as we have no costs, no confirmed production levels for July and August, no idea how much money they need, or how they intend to raise it. What a clucterf@ck.

Nice to see poo bouncing as well. We just need a clean run to Serenity now. No delays. No poo crash. No Chinese lockdowns. No market crash.... Just some positive half-yearly results and outlook, and a bit of PR to get the market excited. And a divi surprise certainly wouldn't go astray. It will be far easier for us to hit the 50's in the success case if we're launching from the low to mid 30's. Hopefully just 6 weeks to go now. GLA

It could be nothing, but would be odd to literally swap 2 board member roles for no reason. Like many on here my first thoughts were along the lines of t/o / merger. The next question is whether we're the target, or someone else...

Anyone seen yesterday's interview?

Hi Tony, what production numbers did you put in your spreadsheet? I was thinking if we exit 2022 at 24kboepd the %fcf would perhaps be similar at $80WTI i.e. less than 40%.

Agree Tony. I think OPEC know that between $80-100 is the sweet spot range. They make money, and the rest of the world doesn't riot. If it drops to $60 they'll simply turn down the taps.

Reckon the divi is safe all the way down to $65. People need to keep in mind that we'll be producing 24kboepd by the end of the year. So lower prices will be mostly offset by increased production. And gas prices will be extremely elevated for at least the next 6 months, even with Canada having f@cked their own pricing.

I also cannot see a crash in the poo happening. OPEC will slowly decrease production in line with whatever is happening on the demand side of the equation. It's far better for them to be producing 3-5% less and having prices at $90, rather than having a supply issue and prices at $65. Also, Russia can only increase production so much, and in less than a year it's going to struggle to maintain production without western technology. The big fly in the ointment is Iran. If the US agree a nuclear deal with those pr!cks while they're selling drones to Russia and destabilizing the entire Middle East, then it will show just how grossly short-sighted and incompetent sleepy Joe happens to be. Incredible the US only gets to choose between two dimwitted geriatrics, one of which is a narcissistic psychopath, and the other needs to be reminded to change his diaper. Crazy world we live in.

Literally the only company on my watchlist that has fallen further today is PTAL, which just so happens to be the most under-valued O&G company in Canada. Go figure.

We'd be getting the production report for August about now, but no doubt it would do nothing for sentiment (or the sp) especially when combined with July numbers.

Doesn't help that poo is getting hammered as well. No-one knows which way is up or down these days. Some good news from mgt certainly wouldn't go astray.

Thanks for the numbers Tony - It's great to see some figures to back up what we know to be true in terms of our valuation. Worth pointing out that PTAL and its crazy valuation is due to them operating in Peru, which has had numerous demonstrations and 'sit-ins' that have shut down pipelines and storage facilities. So far from Canada in terms of social and geopolitical risk.

On buy-backs, I agree mgt need to do something if the sp remains in the 20's for the coming month with commodity prices at this level. But I'm always a bit sceptical when it comes to buy-backs. In my experience they don't do a lot for the share price unless it's a fairly significant amount they're willing to spend. It can also result in major funds using the opportunity to rebalance their portfolio, whereas in theory dividends make hands stickier, especially if they're paid monthly. An increase to the monthly divi we also know to be something that works to re-set the share price higher and still deliver the 6-7% yield range that we've been occupying for a while. So if they boost the divi by 15% then I'd expect the sp to move upwards by a similar amount. And it would get a lot more eyes on the company for the upcoming drill campaign. Either way something needs to be done unless mgt wants a t/o offer to land. Someone could offer 40p tomorrow and have the entire spend paid back in 2.5 years at current commodity prices and an average 25kboepd production profile. This is crazy when one considers our significant growth potential in Canada alone. And we have no debt. Certainly frustrating seeing the sp down here. Hopefully mgt do something soon. Alternatively a 40p offer would also suffice from my pov. AIMHO GLA

Perhaps those imbeciles do exist. Cannot think of a single reason why this share would be shorted unless someone believes the pandemic is coming back worse than before. Spud news, half-yearly report with drill results and updated production forecast, and maybe / hopefully a dividend hike. I wouldn't want to be short knowing most of these things are going to happen over the next 6 weeks, not to mention the run up to Serenity and hopefully a commercial result. All to play for here. GLA