Member Info for G_G_G

Multi, I never said market conditions weren't impacting our sp - that was LL who was saying the Cu price has nothing to do with our decline. I was saying treating us like mushrooms for a few months in this climate on the back of 1 month of production results would keep our sp depressed because trust hasn't been established, and there's no reason to invest for a few months. And guess what, it's played out just like that.

To put it very simply for those who are failing to grasp the impact of 'no news'. Company fundamentals and AIM investor psychology (influenced by news) are two separate things that both impact a company's value. It's why some AIM companies are grossly over-valued (driven by giddy 'herd' excitement), whilst others are grossly under-valued. The opportunities obviously lie with the under-valued (unless you're a shorter), but value isn't helped when mgt fail to recognize they have a job to do in influencing investor psychology. Sadly most mgt only do this when they need to raise money. Something no doubt many on here have seen for themselves, and I would say TB has been guilty of doing. The lack of understanding of how AIM operates is clearly lost on many people here. And of course you have people saying 'it doesn't matter value will out in the end', but they're often the same people asking 'what's happening to the sp', and 'why isn't it moving' when you get news like we did yesterday. Simply, we don't have any needle moving news for at least a month. And yeah I'll be excited to get that news in 4 weeks like anyone here who has a reasonable holding. I just don't like having to wait for it in market conditions such as this, when investor psychology supporting our company is very poor due to an unreliable history - current sp and volume supports this statement. Who the hell wouldn't want us to be sitting 5-10p higher in the same market. At the very least it gives the company an ability to raise cash for less dilution if something left-field happens, which has happened here many times. And it means we move form a higher base when we finally get things like our cost profile. You want to make money on AIM you need to look at more than the fundamentals. That's what I've done here, and why I hold over 1m shares i.e. I have confidence in the operational side of things. But I think mgt can do far better on the psychology front. It's the reason why they moved to monthly reporting, but they moved away far too soon and if you had just 3 more months of it then I'm quite sure a 700tn July number combined with yesterday's drill results and +ve outlook would see us closer to 30p, rather than 20p.

As opposed to being bullish and rampy constantly multi? I've never said the investment thesis here is rubbish. I've said the move to quarterly reporting would mean the sp won't move until we see results (or are close to receiving them). And I've never been happy with that move because trust has not been established on the back of one month of 648tn production. So who's been right perma bull?

Exactly Zappy, there's no faith in the 'turnaround' story yet, which is why you're seeing very little volume. This of course would have been addressed by giving us +700tn monthly production number a couple of weeks ago, and another in a couple of weeks time. But that's spilt milk as many on here would rather wait a few months spending their time wondering why we haven't move upwards when the answer has been provided (many times and now again). Bottom line we all have to wait until the end of September (at the earliest) or the end of October (at the latest) before trust is re-built on the expected / promised cost and production results. The we can expect a re-rate providing AISC are below $3. Anyone want to see what happens when they're above £3 should look at ATYM sp, which has an operation and resource far greater than ours.

Agree with most of what you've said DG, but think £2 (+£300m mcap) is many years away, if ever. Again refer to ATYM as a reference point. To get to such a level (10-bag) we'll need to be producing +20ktpa with an AISC versus Cu price differential of at least $1.00. And to get to this level of production a lot of money will need to be raised for expansion given there's little chance we'll get more than 50% financed through debt. This means quite a bit of dilution and the sp not having the same multiple as the mcap. The ore sorter to begin with will require dilution, whether it be $5m or $7.5m we will be diluted by at least 10% even at a higher mcap than we are now. But this would of course mean +10ktpa so one can expect the sp to be well north of here providing AISC are sub $3 and Cu is +$3.50. I would hope this is very easy to achieve. I personally think the best investment return will be when the ore sorter is operational and throwing off a few months at +10ktpa run-rate. Providing AISC and Cu price have a $1 difference then you'll have a 3-4 bag on a PE of (8-10) with 10% dilution. This is achievable early 2024, which is a very good return for 18 months. Anything beyond this and you need a lot more investment / dilution associated with the production growth. If the Cu shortage actually happens then in 3 years time it may work out brilliantly. But we will almost certainly have a recession to navigate between now and then. And there's of course a lot of things that can go wrong at a macro and micro level between now and the ore sorter being operational, if indeed it happens.

But first they need to confirm the cost and production numbers. In the meantime everyone may as well stop asking why the sp hasn't gone up. Money will start to flow in before the half yearly results and costing exercise are released so providing Cu holds up we should be a few pennies higher in 3-4 weeks time. The cost results will direct travel beyond this point.

Blue-square if you've been here for any amount of time you'll know that you cannot rely on anything until it's written in an official release. The amount of times something random has gone wrong, or the market has been disappointed by an update, outnumber the 'pleasant surprises' by 10 to 1. In fact you can limit the pleasant surprises solely to drill results over the past year. And if you want evidence of what I'm saying then look at the lack of movement in the sp today. No-one gives a **** about these drill results because they're all waiting on some actual numbers. The re-rate won't occur until we get costs and Q3 production results to put with them. And that also relies on Cu staying at this level or ideally climbing higher over the next 8 weeks, which is the earliest time to expect Q3 results. No de-ramp needed when the sp is behaving in this way due to a news vacuum.

Yes DPOW such a monumental government f@ck up to have a global energy crisis and these muppets have got their local resources going negative today. Yes there's maintenance occurring, but the on-going disconnect between US and European prices is staggering. The local government should hang their heads in shame given the amount of money their community isn't seeing for the resources being sold.

I must admit it's pretty annoying they're taking so much time to report the quarterly figures. Lets hope they have something up their sleeve so we're all eating humble pie in a couple of days. The update will no doubt be very good, but they do need to get on top of the basics like regular, reliable reporting. It's often the little things that can shape and solidify shareholder views of mgt. Surely news this week. GLA

Excellent grades again. Issues of course being we don't know costs and we don't have actual production figures. At least they've reassured investors the production profile is on-track in the absence of actual numbers. So that's something. Let's hope the world economy can wait a few more months before imploding.

I'd love us to get taken out. Just don't see it happening. Multi, there's been a lot of numbers ranging from $8m-15m talked about for the ore sorter over the past 12-18 months. Given mgt haven't delivered anything on time or budget I'll go with the upper estimate. They say such things to appease shareholders and support the sp in case they need to raise more money. Remember in April (just 4 months ago) they were still spending money to fix problems.

‘Operational comparisons with the past are not relevant. The mine has moved on with what has been established over the past 18 months.’

Multi, they have provided 1 month of 650tn production. He can talk all he likes, but the market doesn't believe him at the moment, and needs evidence of operational turnaround, which won't happen for at least another 2 months. You may as well take a break until they give us the cost exercise, whenever that arrives. Sadly there's more chance of the next rns being a capital raise given mgt have a rich history of asking for more money versus +650tn monthly production results.

I think some of you really need to calm down. The company doesn't even know our AISC as hard as that is to imagine. And we have just 1 month of evidence they can produce at 650tn per month. That's 1 month!!! So talk of a buy-out is fantasy stuff. Don't even bother doing the numbers until the company can sort its **** out and provide our AISC and some more monthly production figures. In other words wait a couple more months. TB doing interviews like this is quite frankly annoying as he's all talk until he can back up his words. And before anyone speaks of 25ktpa you need to think on how much money will need to be raised to get there. To produce nearer 10ktpa we'll need circa $15m for an ore sorter. If 50% is raised through debt we'll still need to dilute by over 20% just to pick up $7.5m. The cost profile was meant to be provided to the market 'in weeks' on TBs last interview. That was 1.5 months ago, and they've been working on this for how long? Point being Mgt need to put their heads together and provide the market through official channels what it needs to value this company, rather than doing interviews talking about our 'potential' with no name publications.

Also looking good to end the week at 30p with some further strengthening in the poo and a bit of fomo. Surely Monday is the day for news... I'll be disappointed if we're not in the mid 30's after they reveal the latest results and provide some more clarity on our recent Canadian drill results and Serenity spud date. We may even get a nice divi surprise. Certainly looking forward to September and October.

Agree Tony. Even if we had some 'accepted' industry norms to value Brent 2P reserves at appraisal stage, one would still need to take into account the change in poo and decreased ESG pressures. Both of course are positive, alongside the current taxation benefits for Nth Sea development. If we prove up 100m 2P reserves I literally have no idea whether it's worth $250m, $500m or $1bn at appraisal stage. My gut tells me somewhere between $250-500m, but that's a difference of +12p per share versus +25p to our sp. And give our holdings it means one could conceivably lose out on £500k of profit if selling at the lower range. That of course doesn't take into account the herd running at us like they did on 88e. If there's any oil experts here then please feel free to provide some answers / references for 2P reserves value at an appraisal stage of development.

Never really paid any attention to Gasx. I did however look into Emo and thought it was over-valued back when it hit 90c the first time. Crazy to think it cruised past 4x that level less than 6 months later and had the same mcap as Solg, which is one of the world's biggest ever porphyry deposits, surrounded by other massive deposits that are still being delineated. Company values can often get out of hand when they go on a run i.e. price rises attract attention that feeds into future price rises. I never would have been able to realize the potential massive gains anyway, as I would have thought the market has gone mad at $1.50 and dumped my position before it got to $4. It's why I'm keen to understand a sensible value for 50 & 100m 2P reserves at Serenity. I'm intending to top-slice at some point, but would like to understand a realistic value for the success case. On this point, Tony thanks for pointing me toward the Tennyson estimate who appear to be valuing Serenity at $13.85 per boe, which was far higher than I was expecting. For some reason I had $4-5 per 2P reserves in my head. Anyone else have some industry value estimates to put alongside Tennyson's?

Happens ftse when you have no good news to tell.

That's my thinking as well Sharechap. We know the next update is going to be a a belter, but in some ways I'd prefer to have some of the great news items broken into separate statements. I've been thinking the delay is to give a definitive spud date. I've also been dreaming of an offer of +45p, but think Serenity is the likely cause. Only 1.5 months to see what we have. Scary sp appreciation if they turn up the mid case alone. GLA

Tony, thanks for the info. I didn't realize we had sold off some of our low performing wells. These guys really are smooth operators. Well except for the current quarterly report. This one must be the latest to date. I'm sure there's a good reason for the delay, but I'd like to see it sooner rather than later for no other reason than to shut down the board insect that has appeared recently. Stupefying ignorance on display from *******s.

I'd rather they put him down

Boltok, wow you're even dumber than your name suggests.

Re i3e, as much as I keep saying I'm totally comfortable with getting the news whenever it's ready because it's going to be fantastic, I have to say the delay is really starting to grate on me. Hopefully tomorrow.

Seriously who gives a **** about a new caterpillar. Given our sp has gone backwards today from an already very low level, I'd say no-one. Mgt taking the time to tell the market about things that don't matter. What about how much ore our caterpillars are mining. Or would that be too unprofessional.

I did pick up on that Tony. Not sure about you, but I thought it was his best pre-prepared response to the question about why i3e went with EOG rather than a larger player. It's not like he could say they went with us because we were the only ones that would pay for half the drill and only get 1/4 of the field, which is what I believe to be the real reason we've partnered with EOG. Doesn't matter because the deal works for both parties, which is the main thing. Hopefully poo and gas take a leap this week. It would be quite annoying if prices drop further just when we get the first full half-year results at +20kboepd. Can't be long now...