Member Info for G_G_G

Really strange this quarterly report is taking so long. Could we be waiting on the f/o drilling program, another deal, some Canadian drill results, a t/o offer...? The delay makes the mind run with all sorts of things. Thankfully the only things I can think of are good. Looking forward to the update when it finally arrives.

Didn't think you're capable of answering that simple question LL. Howls of laughter indeed.

Am I correct in Tennyson valuing Serenity at $13.85 per boe...? That's much higher than I was expecting. For some reason I had $4-5 per 2P bbl in my head.

Nice to see some poo strength, and AECO pushing up. Hopefully a weekly close above 30p today and news on Monday. They've got an immense amount of things to report so it's certainly going to be interesting to see the market reaction, especially if oil and gas prices continue to push upwards over the coming weeks. And then we have Serenity being drilled in the next 4 weeks. I stick by my 34-38p range before we get news. I don't see our mcap being at +£500m until we hear something.

Apologies for repeating my earlier question, but does anyone have accepted industry norms for valuing 2p reserves in the ground? I'm basically wanting to work out what the industry would ascribe to 100m (Brent) 2P reserves should we prove it up in Serenity.

LL, stating the obvious really. Well done. We've been arguing what has caused the current depressed share price. Answers are lower Cu price and a lack of +ve news on the horizon to counter the lower Cu price (i.e. monthly reporting). You of course have been arguing the Cu price has nothing to do with the recent declines. And yet people on here have shown the correlation in charts. A blind monkey could see it. The weakness was then exacerbated by not getting any news for a few months. You've clearly got no idea about how AIM works on sentiment and news, not just fundamentals, which is obvious. But do tell me what has caused the recent share price decline, and what is now creating some strength. Cue howls of laughter.

Indeed ElSteve. We're back in the 30's! Wonderful to see.

Isn't it ex-divi today?

Good thing is we're still rising into news that will no doubt be very +ve. Also great to see we've had some above average well results with our partner. Back to my question from the other day, does anyone have accepted industry norms for valuing 2p reserves in the ground? I'm basically wanting to work out what the industry would ascribe to 100m 2P.

Xenor I think you've just outdone yourself.

Here's a simple explanation of what has happened on RMM. Because RMM kept their guidance all this year people have been buying into the company with the expectation they would see a +600tn result. Hence sp goes up. But when the monthly numbers are worse than expected or plain ****e, then people sell and the sp goes down. It isn't monthly reporting that is causing the ups and downs, but what they're reporting. Can't believe I'm even typing this.

They could drop a monthly report tomorrow announcing 700 tonnes and we'd be back under 20p by next Friday.

Xenor, well done on the stupidest statement of the day. Reckon it'll even beat whatever Moon has to offer.

Agreed Posset and Analytical. And if by magic it's happening now. And with clarity on production there would be even more speculating. It's just investors would be adding more as they'd have greater clarity on one of the other important inputs (in the absence of costs). There's not much point having costs on 7ktn per annum, but not having a degree of certainty on whether this is achievable. As I've said before, 1 month isn't a reliable pattern of production and now we have to wait another 2-2.5 months to get a quarterly report. About the only reliable patterns we've established are things go wrong (and we don't always hear about them), and things are delayed. Hence the need for regular good news to rebuild the trust that TB himself acknowledges is a problem.

Pitstok, tell me does the sp go up or down if they report another all-time record breaking month of production now? So many h@lfwits on this board.

I've been saying Cu price and no news are holding us back. Cu price is clearly one factor, although I imagine Lauren Louise will throw in an unsupported opinion about it not being linked, even when it's clearly correlated. The other thing holding us back from moving into the high 20's is we have no other +ve news. We cant say that our production profile is continuing to break records. And we don't have the costing exercise completed. And anyone thinking H1 results will be +ve are deluded. They will be **** except for June.

The only facts are we recently had a 650tn month accompanied by a +ve outlook. But we also know the company has withheld major issues in the past on multiple occasions so we can't trust them at their work on everything being hunky dory until we actually see the results. We also know the company has a history of promising things in a certain time frame and them being months late. So we can't rely on the costing exercise to be delivered anytime soon (due in weeks but has now been over a month). At least the monthly production update was set news, in a set timeframe, and we'd be able to see for ourselves if things are on-track.

Nice to see Cu rising. Shame we have nothing else +ve to go with it.

Haha, I did top up today Tony, but it was the 80k at 9.35am. I've gotten stuck in RMM with 750k of my shares from here now being 1m shares over there. Basically timed it completely wrong. Although I believe in RMM I can't see me getting my money coming back before this takes off into the mid 30's. Still I have roughly 4m here and do think I'll make money on RMM in the next 1-2 months.

What's your current thinking here - do you intend to exit fully at some point? And if so, when are you thinking, and for how much? I've decided to risk the lot and hold until we get Serenity results. No top slicing before-hand.

Also, does anyone have any rule of thumb oil measurements for $ value per barrel of 2p reserves? I've heard Graham and Majid refer to these multiples in the past and how good the deal was for our Canadian reserves, but cannot remember the industry benchmarks mentioned.

First decent move up in a long time. Hopefully over next few days we see some more Cu price strength and they release the now overdue cost exercise to the market. With production @7ktn run rate I'd hope our AISC are below $3. If that's the case then I'd expect some significant strengthening in the sp pushing us toward £50m mcap. Would have been nice to see 700tn production confirmed for July, but clearly they'd prefer to do a little less leg work versus supporting the share price.

Waiting a couple of months adds unnecessary risk. It also means you're more likely to see a spike in a couple of months. Can't remember who the poster is who keeps saying monthly updates for the next couple of months will 'spike the sp'. Quite the opposite would happen - It would mean sure and steady increases into the quarterly report.

Clearly Malto. Clearly we need costs, which were 'weeks away' over a month ago now. Having said this, the market will assume profitability with Cu above £3.50. But we also need more than 1 month of production for the market to assume we now have a +650tn production profile. Add them together and you'll get sp appreciation even in the absence of the costing exercise.

Anyone would think our sp is linked to the Cu price. Now I wonder what would happen to the sp if they dropped a 700tn record breaking production month into the mix....

Thanks for the info guys. Frustrating that we're having maintenance at a time when gas prices are exploding globally. Having said this we're doing pretty well across the board. Just need confirmation of some stonking quarterly results and a Serenity drilling date to get the countdown clock ticking. GLA

Does anyone have a view on wtf is happening with AECO gas prices?

Awfully strange AECO drop - does anyone have an idea about what caused it a few days ago? I've been googling but can't find a reason. Quite sudden, sharp, and bizarre given global gas prices.