Member Info for G_G_G

Another 12k and 12.5k buys from me courtesy of my i3e divi payments today. So that's a grand total of 1.1175m @ 26.5p. Just shy of £300k in here now. C'mon TB smash those numbers for once.

Not much buying or selling today. Hopefully K2 have nothing left to throw at the sp and we'll have a clear run back to +45m mcap (+28p). That of course relies on +600tn and the Cu price not collapsing by +3% on Monday. Given current macro / market shenanigans, and the whole Murphy's Law principle that seems to apply here, it really wouldn't surprise me to see it lurch that way.

Diamond, I'm reasonably confident they'll breach 600tn. The only reason I think 650tn is a stretch is the 30 day month. That one day equates to 20tn, and we still haven't established the operation is capable of hitting 600tn. It is however why I've been saying if we breach 650tn then we should re-rate as you can add 20-25tn over the next 2 months by virtue of them being 31 days. Suddenly you're knocking on the door of 700tn just by maintaining production. They really do need to come through for their investors now. I've been in and out of here, but understand the pain many lths have been through. It would be a thoroughly deserved win for PIs if the company finally proves the long awaited turnaround is in full swing. Til Monday. AIMHO GLA

Cu staying above $3.50 for the weekly close will certainly help for Monday, providing of course they can deliver the results. As some have pointed out this company has a habit of having things go wrong and then telling the market much later. You rarely ever know what you're going to get. As much as last month was solid, it was still below what many were expecting, and we even had 31 days. We need a month that is above expectations (for once). They absolutely need to break 600tn now. Anything else should be viewed as a failure as it will be nowhere near their stated aims. I have confidence in TB, but he's not a one man band, and this company has been under-performing for years. Let's hope Monday is definitive in the step change. GLA

Yes, let's hope that's the end of them. There's certainly been some heavy sells the past couple of days. As mentioned it could be distressed PI sells given the amount of people playing with leverage these days. But we'll find out soon enough. Results should land between tomorrow and Monday based on previous monthly production releases, which have ranged from 03rd to 09th of the month. Hopefully they'll provide some additional information on future production and hit the PR trail if we break 600tn. Like many on here I'd love to be surprised to the upside and see a +650tn month. It's certainly possible - 1250tn x 30 days x 1.8% Cu x 96.5% recovery.

Shame it was a 30 day month. It would have helped to get an extra 20tn by virtue of the extra day. At least July and August will get the boost. Hopefully a much needed +ve rns in the morning and with it a guaranteed exit for those PE f@cks. GLA

SP getting silly now. TB needs to get those production numbers out tomorrow. And they had better be good!

If they've had another problem and not updated the market the entire bod should put their hands in their pockets to support the sp. They cannot expect PIs to keep doing it, whilst they fail to back up their words. Perhaps them feeling the consequences of missed targets will sharpen the mind. My feeling is they have to hit +600tn, or we're f@cked. And they'd know this. So I'm more confident than pessimistic on the production front. It's the universal doom mongering negatively impacting the Cu price that is f@cking us.

No more issues or excuses from mgt. Just delivering the numbers and telling the market about it.

Moon, what sort of hedge would he get when copper has already corrected by 25% and still hasn't found a base. I'll help you. It wouldn't be for a good price, and no doubt they'd want a decent commitment. Thank god you're not responsible for any investment decisions other than your own. Secondly, we will still be making money with Cu at $3 providing we have a run-rate of +7ktn. I've provided workings so try to get your head around them before posting more mindless nonsense.

Multi, I agree the copper price is being driven by fear. But that's not to say we don't have further to fall. This recession is just beginning.

Finally, if we break 650tn we're going to be fine, and I'm quietly confident it will take us back to the mid to high 20's. The market is a bloodbath for the resource sector today, which is made worse for us by K2 still exiting. With a big production month and some positivity provided by mgt, we should see the end of them and be driven by buyers rather than a major seller. It would obviously help if copper can find a base around $3.50 over the next week as well. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

It's certainly painful to watch Zappy, but you have to consider that production above 600tn will deliver one of the best months in the history of the company, if not the best. Unfortunately the Cu price plus K2 are killing us. We need +600tn, and ideally +650tn to stop the rot. It should hopefully be enough to generate +5m shares trading hands over a few days and rid us of K2 as well.

K2 are clearly still selling, and unlike some on here I think there's probably a good 1m still to go. But once they're finally out we should have predominantly buying pressure. There's been very few shares changing hands below 22p, which is why it has been so hard to get rid of K2. And I'd say at least half of the buys at this level are PIs lowering their average, like me (I picked up another 350k below 25p). This means less shares being flipped for a small profit given most averages are in the high 20s or more, and most of these holders have a longer-term outlook. This is my theory on why the bounce should be quite decent if the production numbers are above 600tn. I'm hoping a return to the high 20's even in this macro outlook.

Having said that the macro isn't great, however I don't see Cu dropping much further. Main thing is if we're churning out +600tn of production everything will be fine even with a Cu price between $3-3.50. We just need the company to deliver, and ideally over-deliver. I'll be very hacked off if we get another 500tn month accompanied by some excuse.

Agree with a lot of what you've said Diamond, except I think anything above 600tn is good. Anything above 650tn should be seen as f@cking brilliant as it means we're on a 8ktn forward 12 months trajectory. Plus we're still in with a chance of hitting 7ktn for the year. Agree with your point on costs, but I think it's safe to say if they can get near 7ktn for the year we should be turning over profit. Workings below:

- AISC $2.50 (estimated from Production profile / AISC history)
- Cu price = $3.75 average for the year
- 7ktn x 2200 x $1.25 (margin) = $19.25m.
- Add another $1m for gold credits

Now if we minus an extra $5m for petrol. And another $5m for loan repayments and 'other', and another $5 for development. So we're looking at $5m fcf. Not enough to pay for the ore sorter, but certainly enough to arrange the loan and get it in place. Our vastly improved production / cost profile then allows us to make more fcf even in a Cu price environment closer to say $3. Very loose workings but hopefully one can see we're going to be fine on 7ktn (8ktn forward 12 months). But yes, I agree some numbers and forecasting from mgt is def. needed to bring in the investors sitting on the sidelines. They will of course need to buy in the 30's, but will have the security that comes with waiting. He who dares wins though right :)

Of course they don't Moon you f@cking doughnut. Now go and play with your other genius friends on the EUA board, and Litecoin fan club. You are seriously the only thing that makes me doubt my investment here. Not because of your constant unintelligible ramblings, but because I judge the quality of my investment decisions by the quality of PIs I find on an investment board. Unfortunately you are the most id!iotic, f@ckt@rd I've encountered on any board in my investing lifetime, which in turn makes me wonder whether my money should be here. Your investment in crypto and EUA pretty much sum you up. Now please f@ck off before you make any other PIs question whether they should be here.

Share buy-backs would be a complete waste of time and money. Buying back 10% of shares - do the math. You wipe out a large amount of cash reserves to maybe increase the sp by 10%. And to increase the divi payout by 10%. Hardly worth it. Plus it doesn't do anything for protecting dividends in future. We're on-shore. We have vast reserves and over 100 drill targets mapped. We have a huge amount of land that still needs to be appraised. And we're in a bull market that's likely to last for another year at least. And people are talking about throwing $40m at a buy-back that MAY increase sp value, and dividend value by 10%. F@cking madness.

You drill the @ss out of Canadian locations. By doing this you're better prepared for the inevitable pull back in oil prices in future. Whilst other companies have been wasting their precious cash resources trying to make Eric Nuttal et.al happy, they're missing on the longer term stability of increased production. We could add 2-3kbopd for $40m. If oil heavy it would almost double our output. The added production protects your dividend in future, not just because of the extra revenue, but because we have low decline wells. You also get the benefit of extra company value assigned with the additional reserves being proven up. And you get a better idea of the land you own, so you can better prioritize drilling in an environment where oil is say $75. I 'm guessing Graham and Majid agree with what I'm saying, which is why they're not doing it. They could commit to a higher monthly dividend for the next 12 months. This in itself would increase the sp, and put very little pressure on our cash reserves. Drill more wells in Canada, put a wildcat in the Nth Sea (Minos High) and increase the dividend for 12 months by 10-20%. We can then enjoy significant dividends now and if poo drops by 20%, alongside knowing our reserves are being replaced and growing, plus mgt knowing where to put the next wells to maximize returns, and we have 2 x Nth Sea lottery tickets. All of these things can be instigated now, and all of them will add value to the sp immediately and for the near future. A buy back would be a complete waste of cash. And as Bunkatron points out, it would also p!ss governments off. AIMHO

Doubt it. Reckon Thursday is the earliest we can expect the numbers. Awfully quiet for a run-up period to possible the start of a transformation here. I hope mgt are taking note of this as it means they need to get out there and PR the results if they're worth singing about. They better bl@@dy deliver as well. The only surprise this tie needs to be to the upside, as Cu is definitely against us. Another excuse for getting nowhere near their targets will go down like a lead balloon in this environment.

Agree buy-backs do little for sp appreciation, but do cost a lot of money. So a pointless exercise imo. I'd rather they stick the cash into increasing Canadian production, in particular oil focused areas where we can prove up more reserves. This provides an immediate revenue return, and with current oil prices incredible IRR / payback periods. Plus there's the added benefit of greater reserves, which increase the underlying value of the company. The next place I'd like them to invest is another well in the Nth Sea. This would give us two cracks at adding +10p to the sp. In a high success scenario each well could deliver +20p to the sp, and the outlay is quite small for the upside. And finally I'd like them to modestly increase the dividend. The benefit of increasing the divi is the low cost nature of it, and the fact that it will add a good 10-15% to the sp. All of the above will add immediate value to the sp, plus make us a little harder to swallow for a bigger fish.

People also need to keep in mind the market has **** itself over the past 2 months, and we're holding up quite well all things considered. We've had a 20% decrease from our multi-year high, which been compensated by a divi currently paying a 7% yield. The fact they've made it monthly is the reason we haven't experienced even more volatility. We just need to wait for the half yearly results and the sp will be back to 30p in a flash. There's a long list of good news that will accompany that update, and knowing mgt they will probably have an ace up their sleeve as well. I couldn't be more relaxed having my money here. AIMHO GLA

A little more money in the pot, and skin in the game. Now for those production numbers. And hopefully a little respite, or better still bounce in the Cu price. It's been straight downhill the past 4 weeks from circa $4.50. Results on Thursday is my guess.

Agree Xenor. It would only be useful if we bet big on a hedge (+50% production) for an extended period of time, which normally results in a lower hedge price. We're probably about evens now. And to be honest, it's far better the Cu price was +$4 when our production profile was ****, as it means we didn't have to raise any more money. On the flip side, it means they can't f@ck anything up from now. The lower Cu price has to be more than countered by +650tn for the foreseeable future. No ifs, buts, or excuses anymore. Let's hope the month of +650tn is announced in the next few days. Does anyone know our all-time highest monthly production number? Would be great for them to PR this month as all-time record beating (with more to come). Just a couple more days before we find out.

DPOW, I imagine it has to do with the production mix. It's why Tony helpfully provides fcf or NOI multiples to compare companies. The last breakdown I saw of these we were one of the most under-valued O&G companies on the TSX, which is historically very under-valued as a sector. I imagine a lot of PIs on both sides of the pond will wake up to the disconnect when we release our next set of results and/or are about to drill a high impact appraisal well (Serenity) in the Nth Sea (Brent). The latter point is why I'd like them to put a drill into the Minos High structure. We can easily afford to do this and will have the rig in the area. Makes sense as it provides potentially another 10-20p upside in the success case (discovery @ +50m barrels OIP). We've got so much money that needs to find a home. I'm happy they've thrown a lot more at Canada, but it would be good to get some high impact Nth Sea wells to get some eyes on us and generate a re-rate. With 2 x wells being drilled the market will view the success case for one of them coming in as pretty high. Either way I expect the re-rate to start with the next set of results in about 4 weeks. AIMHO GLA

Nice insight Tony and on the same page as you. I've said for a little while now we must look very attractive to a bigger fish given our production and debt levels, not to mention our low cost organic growth potential. I also agree that 40p is probably the value that would be levelled at us in today's market. And yes its twice what I said I'd sell for a year or so ago. So yes I'd be happy to take it right now in the current environment. That's not to say we're not worth more, but we're only worth what the market is willing to pay, which right now is the mid to high 20's. Fwiw I think we'll be in the high 30's when we're drilling Serenity and believe 50-70p as our sp range should we prove up 50-100m recoverable barrels of oil. It's only 5 months before we get results all going to plan. I'm more than happy to wait and see if we turn over a lottery ticket win, especially given the monthly divi being paid. AIMHO GLA

Kestas, they would have announced a hedge if put in place. So I doubt there is one. And I doubt they would have done it given the negative impact of the last hedge. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but we need to hope that Cu stays above $3.50 for the remainder of the year so we can get our finances in good shape, and the ore sorter in place. If this happens, then I think we're good for 50p by year end. And at the very least a doubling of current sp.

Gold streaming isn't insignificant as it provided the company with a chunk of up-front cash after the other streaming agreement was cancelled, something along the lines of a few $ million net. I also believe there is an excess element of annual production (if we're producing at +600tn copper per month) that should amount to a couple of $ million. There's another poster who gave some more insight on this, but I believe the very rough numbers I have provided are correct i.e. circa $4-5m of which around half is a one-off benefit.

PManuel, I think you can double that profit estimate based on the below historical C1 numbers. Even accounting for inflationary pressures at +8ktn I'm pretty confident you're going to have C1 costs below $2.50lb. I believe it would be roughly $2.50lb at 7ktn including extra gold credits, but that's my guesstimate. It's also why people have been estimating somewhere between $15-20m profit at 7ktn. So not throwing off a huge amount of cash, but certainly enough to re-rate the value of the company and provide headroom for the ore sorter, which would increase production (+10ktn per year) and lower C1 costs further.

2018 4,187t Cu, 4,189oz Au, C1 costs 3.30
2019 5,299t Cu, 4,887oz Au, C1 costs 2.58
2020 3,769t Cu, 2,819oz Au, C1 costs 3.45
2021 3,418t Cu, 1,805oz Au, C1 costs 4.29
* C1 = cost per lb of Cu ($), net of credits

I note another 200k trade after hours. As mentioned previously I believe K2 will still have 1m shares even if they dump another 500k-1m early next week before the June results. Having said this, if we get near 650tn for production at the end of next week, then I expect to see the back of them within 1-2 days. It will be interesting to see what the market does to re-rate the value of the company. I think with 650tn and K2 out of the picture we should be sitting back in the 28-30p range at the very least, even with the current dicey macro there should be plenty of buyers at this level. Fair value imo would be +£50m mcap (+32p). And if the market is feeling confident in the future then we could re-visit £60m (38p). What's for certain is we need Cu prices to try and level off somewhere above $3.50. The current price plunge is terrible timing for such a great turnaround story. If they remain above this level then I'm confident the company can get the ore sorter in place for 2023 and then we're throwing off +$20m profit even with a Cu price nearer $3, which could be the case if a recession really bites. I don't believe Cu prices will go back to pre-pandemic levels given the market will go into a serious supply deficit in less than 3 years. And that's without Marshall style plans announced by China, US and G7 countries. Or the re-building of Ukraine. All of which will further eat into copper supplies in the near-term. For those with a long term view, if they can get make a modest profit this year and get the ore sorter in place, then £1 by end 2023 is def. possible. AIMHO GLA

Certainly messy sector. Bottom line however is they're still able to turn a modest profit in such horrible times for their category. Simple solution is to increase prices modestly, and add a small return fee. You'd be surprised how small price rises in times of inflation have little impact on demand. And by doing these things you protect margin and decrease costs. Easy to implement as well. Asos and Boo will still be here in 5 years time. Other retailers (competitors) probably won't. Based on this, I suspect they will be far more valuable than current prices (by a factor of 5x). Unless of course this is the start of a depression. At which point we're all f@cked. It just requires patience and balls / ovaries of steel.