Member Info for G_G_G

Well can't say I was expecting this level of beating. I had a nagging feeling this month could be too soon to show the turnaround given it was a coin toss on whether the results would be disappointing i.e. near 500tn. Even with some of the known issues I did however believe we'd be near this number and the sp would now be in the 30's (with me kicking myself). Looks like we now have to wait for the next set of results in 4 weeks. As many on here have mentioned they've run out of road wrt excuses so next month is time to start delivering. For us to break back into the mid 30's I believe we need a +550tn month. With an average of 1200tpd at 1.5% we're looking at 560tn, which I feel is absolutely doable providing there's no more f@ck ups. The grade is standard, so it's really about getting the 1200tpd throughput. There's of course plenty of scope for higher throughput, but for now they need to show they can hit / near the promised 600tn.

I do feel confident things will turn this month and so tossing up whether to buy another 250k for a straight million @ 27.2p (at current prices). I'm expecting a recovery going into results in a few weeks so have a decision to make in the next week or so before the potential start of our re-rate. If they can break 550 tonnes and provide a positive outlook moving forward then 37p (£60m mcap) will be the first hurdle to overcome. Another 2 months of +600tn and I'm expecting us to be knocking on 50p (£80m mcap). From there who knows. But first they need to deliver +550tn in 4 weeks. AIMHO GLA

Mgt need to demonstrate that production of 1350tpd will be the norm moving forward. If the May exit rate is at / near this level we can expect a solid rise. If 1350tpd looks likely to become our standard production rate then most investors will start taking a position in the coming weeks before the May / June results. We all know this can do 50-100% on very little so if the exit numbers are +1300tpd we can expect the re-rate to begin.

So this month is key for mgt to show the past 12 months of investment is bearing fruit, and to build trust amongst a disappointment weary investor base. There's no reason why we shouldn't be producing near 1350tpd in the back half of April, but it's a coin flip given they've talked a good game before and come up with excuses rather than results. I've taken my position of 750k @ 28.5p believing the turning point will be this month. Not long to find out. GLA

Fellas the update will come when it comes. It doesn't matter if it's today, Monday or Tuesday as it all boils down to the content and forward guidance. To have it a few days here or there beyond their own norm isn't a big deal on AIM. The fact they provide a monthly production report is good in itself. I expect news will arrive on Monday for Indaba. AIMHO GLA

isdeer, I don't disagree that selling now would be silly given the newsflow over the coming months. It's why I want to buy back after RMM hopefully fulfils its promise. But we don't know who bought the shares and what their plan is to do with them. All that's being said is that often some profit taking will occur in these circumstances. We'll find out over the coming weeks and months. GLA

isdeer, I think the idea is some profit taking may occur post transfer. You have to keep in mind if they're selling into the market at 30p they're making an instant 11% profit. They may do this for a % of the shares and bank the rest. Either way I think we may be anchored around this level for a little while. Happy to proven wrong. Also selfishly I'm happy for it to stay sub 30 for a few months so I can buy back my 750k shares with some RMM profits (god willing). AIMHO GLA

Correct Tom on my buy back plan. Austin sadly I think you're correct as well - I too have a feeling that i3e will get to 40p before RMM. Seav, I couldn't agree more on Hum being an operational disaster. Problem with having a trust fund baby running the show. Funny how many times I've traded that stock over the years. Key to HUM is buying after the big drops. Then wait until the run up to the next news on whether promises have been delivered. PIs are too scared not to be in the company in case they actually deliver something as it has a habit of jumping 50% in a couple of weeks (from lows tbf) when something good lands. For me I sell before news is due. I normally make 10-20% by doing this and haven't lost yet. RMM is similar to HUM in this regard. It's a turnaround job, and is very under-valued versus potential. And if they finally start delivering on their promises then I'll make my 50% in the next few months. Only issue of course is whether i3e have made it to 40p before-hand. Nice problem to have I suppose :) GLA

Hi guys, hope you're all doing well. Hard not to with the sp at these levels :) Things are certainly looking more positive than ever before here. For me the biggest catalyst the market hasn't quite cottoned onto yet is gas prices. The majority of our boepd is gas so when this price moves to near record highs alongside the well known +$100 oil prices it really turbo charges our NOI. I think the next set of results is likely to highlight this to the market. Unfortunately for me I sold 750k in our recent run. I mentioned I'd come clean if I did any trading and have to say it hasn't worked out as well as Id liked. My average was probably around 25p for the 750k sold. Thankfully I turned a quick trading profit of circa £25k on HUM but not enough to make up for the money I could have by staying put here. Still holding 4m and not intending to do anything with them until Serenity has been appraised. If commodity prices, in particular gas, are still at these levels in 6 months and we prove up +50m recoverable barrels of Brent then +50p is more than likely our new level. My head hurts trying to work out fair value should we prove up +100m barrels - It will literally be a winning lottery ticket for some larger holders here. Anyway I've dropped my HUM profits into RMM, which has been good to me in the past. I'm hoping I can sell my 750k shares over there and buy back here for the same number that I sold. Will have to wait and see if it's possible but feel there's 50% upside there in the next 3 months if they can complete their turnaround story. All going well I may even be able to buy more. Who knows. Anyway, well done to all lth's. And welcome to the newbies. The future looks incredibly bright here over the next 6 months. AIMHO GLA

Agreed Analytical, which is why I've reinvested here. I just picked up my last 75k (@ 28p) to make 750k shares in total @ 28.5p average. I've been accumulating the past 2 weeks and quite happy with my holding and average. Hands up I've traded in and out of this stock over the past year and made some quite good money. Some of the posters here will remember I went fairly large in the very low 20's but decided to sell shortly after the loan news dropped as I thought there was still a way to go before the mine would be up and running efficiently and glad that I did at the time. My investment horizon is 3-6 months this time round as I can see we're within touching distance of hitting the promised targets. The bottom for now appears to be in and unless there's bad news in the coming week then I can see us creeping back to 40p in the next 2 months. The only drawback I see in the next update is how much time was lost with the power upgrade. But if we're exiting the month at +1300 tpd then I see us in the low to mid 30's quite quickly. And if maintained throughout May then I think we'll push into the 40's. If held for June and July then I can see a new 52 week high being achieved in the 60's. All to play for and hopefully the starting gun goes off in the coming days. AIMHO GLA

Hello fellas, sorry I've been traveling to Australia to visit family. It's always an ordeal flying to this side of the word, but doing so with a sick toddler takes it to a whole other level. Luckily checking in on i3e has made everything a lot more bearable the past couple of days :) I've only skimmed the rns and haven't had a chance to look at the investor presentation, but looks as though we've finally started our re-rate. Best thing is there's a lot more good news to come over the coming weeks / months. I'll share my thoughts once I've settled into my new environs and had a chance to digest the latest news. GLA

You're right gold_hum, its what makes boards interesting i.e. getting different viewpoints. And yes I'd be very happy with a fraction of Bonkers forecasts as well. Let's hope he's right and I'm wrong :)

Sorry I forgot about you Bushy, make that a two man echo chamber.

That's fine Bonker, stay in your one man echo chamber. You've been posting here for years and tell me how much have you made from this company? I don't disagree with you that Hum will be worth a lot more than it is now in 18 months. But the reasons you've provided for any sp appreciation in the near future couldn't be further from reality if you tried. But we'll see when the Dugbe dfs lands in a few weeks. I say 3p to the sp. You're saying 'significantly higher' and a 're-rate'.

The real sp appreciation will be when Betts shows Yan can be mined at 25k per quarter for less than $1500 AISC. At current gold prices you'll get circa $450 per ounce for circa $40m profit at mid-point of 2022 production forecast. That's £30m profit. Apply a discounted valuation for Betts being a semi-ret@rded trust fund monkey, and you'll still get a doubling of the sp before you take into consideration Kouroussa, which will add more value to the sp with every quarter closer to production. And then there's Dugbe and Bunker Hill, which are worth f'all, but I'll stick with 3p for Dugbe and nothing for BH. Suddenly you have a sp in the 30's underpinned by Yan with significant future growth coming from the soon to be second operating mine. You also have future assets for a bigger fish to exploit in future, which will realise a greater amount of their value if a t/o offer comes our way, but not before-hand. These are the reasons why I'm invested here, and I'm sure the reasons why anyone with a considered 12-24 month horizon would put their money here as well. But it's certainly not influenced by Dugbe, or Bunker Hill for that matter. And Betts is the biggest drawback on me putting more money here. If that pr@t leaves and is replaced by a qualified, professional ceo you'll get a bigger sp jump versus an outstanding Dugbe dfs.

It's mostly your ramblings from last night Bonker. And yes you'll read it.

And for God's sake please stop talking about Dugbe. It's worth a few pennies to the sp at dfs, that's all. Why would the market ascribe any value to it other than a fraction of what it's worth to sell, which is a maximum of $50m for our share. It's simply a lot of dirt, with a relatively low grade of gold, located in an unstable African company, which will cost $400m to develop. I highly doubt anyone will trust Betts with that kind of money, and guess what, he'll need to prove he can turn a reasonable profit at Yan plus Kouroussa before anyone does trust him with that kind of money. This is years away. It's some long-term icing on the cake for a bigger fish to enjoy if / when we get taken out. This is partly why I'm invested, as even with Diabolical Dan I can see us producing 200k at sub-$1400 in 18 months. Hardly great numbers, but it's $100m cash being thrown off, which will be the reason why someone buys us out, and not huge pile of dirt in Liberia.

Bonker your post at 7.46pm couldn't be strayed further from a sound way of investing if you tried.

'The point I'm maybe failing to get across is that picking around Yanfolila production numbers comes across as sweating the pennies whilst ignoring the pounds :)'

- Seriously? The pounds are what have been sunk into an asset that unless it's functioning efficiently will lose you money. Think if gold drops to $1500. Think of how we finance Kouroussa, exploration, pay for monkeys like Betts and his Dad to milk the company whilst sitting in their Mayfair office... I literally scratch my head at this comment.

'There's a reason that this stayed below 12s for all of five minutes on the last production numbers - the money guys know it can't be valued at less than that because of the book values of Kouroussa and Dugbe at their respective DFS/PFS phases.'

- Again, seriously? Firstly you talk of it jumping from below 12p (that's 12p!) as if it's some show of strength. The value for the company comes from the fact it turned a profit in 2021 and although Q4 was a disaster the market believes it will turn a profit again this year. And it has decent reserves plus exploration upside of circa 10 years. Not valued by Kouroussa (yet), or Dugbe (at all).

'When the Dugbe DFS drops, however, that project's book value doubles so the new floor will be significantly higher than where we are now.'

- Bet you it isn't 'significantly higher'. I said 2-3p on the sp when the DFS drops. What's your significantly higher estimate?

'This is why I say the Yanfolila production numbers over the next year are really small beer in the scheme of things, both I and the market have written it off as worthless.'

- So, so wrong. And if you've written off as worthless a project that has had hundreds of millions invested in it since it started then you should stop investing here now. But then again this kind of statement shows how immune you've become to a project that is operating at 50% above its DFS, which links to my next point.

'The real money will start coming in around this time next year via Kouroussa - until then and for my part, I've written Yanfolila off completely but if it produces a few quid of profit this year then from my perspective that's maybe some icing on the cake but it's not close to being the cake :)'

- How the f@ck can you believe a company that has hashed Yan will suddenly start operating another mine at DFS levels? Until they show they can turn a profit, and a reasonable profit, they will be a bunch of chancers who don't belong as gold miners. Dan the trust fund baby ceo can't get a sure thing up and running in Yan, so how the hell do you expect him to deliver Kouroussa, let alone a $400m project like Dugbe? The guy is a muppet. So the 'real money' will be made when he understands how to do is f@cking job. That includes the project that has cost hundreds of millions to develop, and the next project that will start with a cost of one hund

Woops, looks like we're back in the 13's. I just tried to get 40k for 13.75p limit. Let's see if it goes through after hours :)

You make some good points January. It's a tough call as one would expect the Q1 results aren't as poor as Q4 given they haven't lost any days of mining due to protests (6 full days + 'X' ramp up days), and they have additional excavators on-site to help our useless mining contractor team who have been under-delivering (like DB) for sometime. This was positioned as the main reason for the 18.1k ounces @ $1800 AISC in Q4. The question is what production level will we achieve with additional excavators, plus a quarter at full production with no weeks lost or time needed to ramp-up. Having said this DB said the following would occur in Q1:

o Adding five additional excavators to the current fleet, with the expectation that all will be fully operational during Q1 2022

But now we find out via Twitter they've only just got excavator number 4 on site to be assembled. So not 5 fully operational in Q1. But 3 (maybe operational), 1 that isn't, and 1 that hasn't even arrived. Pretty much sums up DB and the way he works. Incredible that anyone would employ this guy, which is perhaps why he needs Daddy to get him his jobs.

So I would hope that Q1 will look a little more like Q3 2020, with circa 22k ounces at less than $1600. They lost 10-15% of production time in Q4 so this should result in another 2.5k ounces being produced alone. And one would hope the additional 3 x excavators will support a few more thousand ounces. Costs should come down as a result. But who knows, Diabolical Dan hasn't given us his 'dog ate my homework' excuse yet. The excavator tweet obviously isn't a good thing as it shows he hasn't delivered his most important remediation action of 5 additional excavators operational in Q1.

Some good things in the pipeline are the Dugbe DFS, which I believe should add 2-3p to the sp. Plus the over-due drilling results for Kouroussa providing another 1-2p. The key to getting this share above 20p though is Q1 being +20k ounces at less than $1600. A monkey should be able to deliver these numbers with a fully operational African mine. So let's see if Dan can out-perform a monkey. The other positive in the next 3 months is the updated company reserves. This has the potential to add 2-3p providing they can show Yan is profitable and producing at target rates, and we've added another +2 years of production. I'll be adding some more when we head back into the 13's. AIMHO GLA

Actually speaking of track record, if the remaining (overdue) Kouroussa drill results don't arrive before the Q1 production report then you know it's going to be bad. DB has a knack of holding back the good news to try and prop up the sp when he's under-delivered on the core part of the business i.e. being a gold miner. The pathetic manner in which DB operates is quite clear and obvious. But if the drill results (or Dugbe DFS) land before the Q1 production report then I'd surmise that we're going to have a +20k ounce @ sub $1600 AISC quarter. Those numbers are incredibly poor for an established African mine that has been operating for years and had a lot of money spent in fixing problems. If he can't deliver these sorts of numbers then he should step aside for a qualified ceo with a decent track record to do his job. I can't stand trust fund babies, but those that are given the keys to sure things and still f@ck them up are easily the worst. DB has a reputation on AIM as one of these characters. But again, his incompetence is why I'm here as it's given me an entry point at a distressed company valuation.

Bonker, I've read the multiples for PFS and DFS many times and yet to see a company on the LSE valued anywhere near what the so called experts say they should be. Same goes for O&G. I could list dozens of companies in that space that are nowhere near 'expert' valuations. HUM is deeply discounted due to 1. Africa, 2. Poor track record 3. Joke mgt (CEO)

If you disagree then explain to us how we're valued at £55m with Yan (operating), Kouroussa (DFS + Development Stage), 3. Dugbe (PFS + DFS very soon)? Use those multiples and tell us the valuation gap.

Bushy, wtf has a small bank financing Kouroussa got to do with Dan's competence. And no they're not blue-chip debt terms. What a clownish thing to say. HUM can get solid terms on a safe investment thesis, not Dan's competence. But again, we're valued at what? As I've mentioned above we're at £55m due to Africa, poor track record, and DB being a trust fund baby pr@t. Look at our assets. Look at the gold price. The only reason this company isn't dust is because gold is $1900. Imagine if it was still ranged at $1200-1400. And you talk of Dan's competence. I'm invested here, but clear eyed on what I've bought into. It's DB being a joke that's allowed me to now build a 650k stake for circa 13.75p. I'll most likely go to 1-1.5m in the next few weeks at probably still at sub-14p thanks to him being an unqualified trust fund baby ceo. Even with his knack for f'king things up there's little doubt that Hum will be 2-3x current value in the next 18 months (gold staying +$1800). If he was a competent ceo with a track record of delivering targets the sp would be in the 30's, not very low teens. But again if you disagree then explain our valuation with all the assets and short term newsflow. No-one's buying because they expect another $1800 AISC quarter. Such is market confidence in DB's stewardship.

SP will move, we just need newsflow. I have no doubt we'll be +25p when the drills are turning in the Nth Sea providing poo and gas don't crater in the next 5 months, which seems unlikely. If we're drilling more than 1 well I think we could be sitting at +£300m Mcap (+27p) very easily. One needs to keep in mind in the next 4.5 months we'll have H1 Canadian well results, confirmation and start of an expanded H2 plan, and 2 x quarterly production reports showing huge cash generation and very strong metrics versus peers. These things alone should get us to 27p. Beyond this really depends on how many of the herd arrive and Nth Sea results. If IIs and PIs are holding tight, which one would expect, you don't need that many +£10k new investors to push us up 5-10p. There's also only a certain amount of shares in the market, so as PIs reinvest their dividends in the run up to Nth Sea drilling it should in theory drive up our base price. It's kind of an in-built share-buyback scheme and why I'd love them to push up the divi by 10-20% if possible. Equally happy for them to drill more wells. I just don't want us sitting on cash in this environment.

Bottom line, I've never been more confident in a share in my life. Guaranteed +25% value gain and solid divi. The value gain could will be easily +100% if the appraisal goes well and they drill a strike in Minos High. Just patience is required for 6 months. AIMHO GLA