Member Info for G_G_G

SP goes to show the stupidity of the average PI. You can leave your money here for a 5.5% annual divi yield to be paid monthly, or you can sell and do f@ck knows what with it. POO and gas have weakened, but still sitting at +$95 WTI and $4.50 AECO. These prices are levels above most people's fcf models. And unless Covid kicks off in China in a massive way, I doubt prices will drop below $80 and $4.00 for the remainder of the year and perhaps even longer. The so called expert from Bloomberg talks about demand destruction based on high prices. Sorry but this will only occur with Covid, otherwise we're back to 100mbopd being consumed. On the other hand increased supply due to high prices could indeed bring down current levels. But one needs to keep in mind that most OPEC countries are missing their quotas to the downside due to being unable to ramp up production post lock-downs. And those that can ramp up production have said they wouldn't, namely UAE and Saudi. Russia will only be able to sell to China for the foreseeable future, but the infrastructure simply isn't there for the oil to be exported unless it's by sea, which means they will have to sell at far less than current prices, but just to that market. And there's only so much oil and gas that China will take from them.

None of this means demand destruction with the exception of Covid knocking off China. But China has shown they can hammer down out-breaks quite effectively, and I expect the recent outbreaks to be dealt with in the same way as previous ones. The only thing that can bring down prices will be significant production increases by US, Canada and OPEC. Only two of them can, or are willing, to do it. And Canada and USA can't just turn on the taps. It takes 12 months before any meaningful increase to supply will occur.

Sadly we could see our sp drift even lower unless we get some more news. A 5.5% guaranteed divi clearly isn't enough for the average PI to sit in a stock for more than a day. Monkeys.

Divi payments finally arrived. Topped up with 12,500 near the bell at 19.55p. Quite happy with it. Will pick up another 12,500 in the other account tomorrow. At 19.5p it's circa 5.5% yield on the new shares. Absolute bargain considering we get another divi locked in on Thursday. I'm hoping they'll have some Canadian news for us around the ex-divi date just to keep the traders in their place. Maybe some well results, or an expanded H2 development program. Next step in the f/o process completes next Friday as well. Great thing is we've got 6 months of constant news streams with H1 well results, divis, f/o milestones, then H2 wells being spud. Onwards and upwards! GLA

Have to admit I was thinking 24-25p after the f/o and the divi reinvestment / ex-divi dates. Unfortunately I think it's going to require a few f/o milestones and some solid Canadian well results to get us near that sp range over the next month. If they announce another well in the Nth Sea plus a greatly expanded Canadian development campaign (on the back of some strong results) then I'm sure this will push us forward as well. Not really concerned to be honest. The sp will rise into the drilling of the Nth Sea, which by the sounds of things will definitely happen within 6 months. Every month the sp is below 25p simply represents an opportunity to build a bigger stake. I'm very confident we'll be closer to 30p when the drilling begins if we have a multi-well campaign in the Nth Sea and some good H1 results. So anything below 25p over the next 6 months represents great value. And if one or both of our wells are successful then we're looking at a significantly higher sp than 30p. All the while we're given a guaranteed divi in a macro environment that's highly unlikely to soften over the next 1-2 years. Just wish Barclays would pay that bl@@dy divi already.

Still no payment from f@cking Barclays for me. SP is a gift right now.

Meant to say it's good to see a lot of obvious divi reinvestment as well. This should strengthen the current range before the next step up.

Jezzo I haven't received my divi either. I'm with Barclays who are useless pr!cks.

Agree with your last posts Stas. And I hope you're right about PIs selling. Your post the other day gave solid reasoning to believe this is the case, which went against my initial feelings.

As for the SP decline, imo this will end today. Tomorrow marks the beginning of the 1st divi payment reinvestment. Even if 50% of the 1st divi is used to buy more shares, then we add +£500k to the buy side of the equation in the space of a few days. The lower the sp, the higher the chance that people will reinvest. And the sp will be further supported by less sell pressure as investors hold on for the next ex-divi date on Thursday. Following this we have confirmation of the f/o moving forward at the EOG EGM, and the first Canadian drill results. As I've said previously I'd love to see them announce at least 1 more drill in the Nth Sea and an option for another drill in Serenity after the f/o is rubber stamped. All in all I expect us to be sitting closer to 30p when the 1st of hopefully multiple drills starts turning in the Nth Sea, which is less than 6 months from now. With the guaranteed divi, this is a very easy hold / reinvest for me. AIMHO GLA

Another 1m trade pops up after hours. There's been a few of these now. I have no doubt that PIs can be absolute m@r@ns, but to sell 1m shares 1 day before dividend reinvestments, and 1 week before the next ex-divi date, when they could wait a week and make another 25k. Crazy.

I hope you're right Stas.

Stas, we won't know if a fund is reducing until they've finished selling.

SP action continues to baffle. Have to say I'm a little concerned one of our big funds could be reducing their holding given some of the big sales that have been popping up against a strengthening macro environment. It would make zero sense in this market, and with the guaranteed income, but they sell for reasons that often make little sense simply to rebalance their portfolios.

As for what to do with any spare cash from sky high commodity prices. I'd like to see an increase to the guaranteed monthly dividend. The current divi put a floor under the sp around 20p (+5%). If they add another £2.2-3.3m (20-30%) it will create a higher value floor plus income for shareholders. Share buy-backs are expensive and often have little effect on the sp. So I'd prefer they do something as simple as adding to the monthly divi, which was genius move when they announced it. The rest of the money should be ploughed into oil focused wells in Canada. Other than rebalancing our portfolio with a higher value commodity, it will also serve to prove up more of our acreage in Clearwater and Simonette. AIMHO

The 2m sell at least makes sense of today's sp action. Mind boggling that someone is selling in that quantity when poo and gas are going ballistic, we have divi reinvestment, new ex-divi date, and closing the f/o, all being due in the next 2.5 weeks. All guaranteed. Don't mind if sp stays down here for the next few days - it will be nice to pick up another 25k of shares.

SP is straight up silly right now given poo and gas. May need to wait until the run-in to the ex-divi next week before PIs drift back here. Poo seemingly isn't having an effect. Good thing is we have the EOG EGM with confirmation of the f/o the following week, and one could expect the first of many Canadian well results to be released. End of month with poo and gas at these levels I expect us to be close to 25p. Hopefully they'll release some news on another Nth Sea drill post EOG EGM, and an expanded Canadian development program for H2. Only positive weekly news from now.

Yes Trencher I think most on here are expecting a divi declaration this week for ex-divi date end of next week. These dates combined with the first dividend payment at the end of this week / early next week (depending on broker) should in theory provide some strength to the sp as many will probably elect to re-invest their dividend payment.

Very strong interview and makes complete sense what they're doing. Imo it doesn't matter if we're partnering with a minnow or a major. What matters is we've held onto majority ownership, which simply wouldn't happen with a mid-tier partner let alone a major. And we're drilling the Nth Sea in an extremely supportive, albeit extremely sad, macro environment. This means far greater sp upside in the success case. And far less bull**** to deal with from the environmental brigade given current geo-political struggles and immediate need for energy security.

Pre-Easter value drivers:
1. Dividend payment and reinvestment (this week)
2. Next ex-divi date (within 2 weeks)
3. Initial Canadian well results (within 4 weeks / on-going)
4. F/o completion (end of month post EOG EGM)
5. Expanded Nth Sea program. And hopefully an announcement we'll be drilling another well in the Minos High post Serenity appraisal well no.1, and have an option for the rig to come back and drill appraisal well no.2 should the first well be a success. All in all a 3 x well campaign will cost i3e £30m, which will only happen if we have success with the first appraisal well. For 2 wells it will cost circa £20m. We can pay for 3 wells in cash, and still have money left for an expanded 2022 Canadian development program. Risk / reward is potentially enormous and I doubt there will ever be a better time to really go for it in the Nth Sea.

One more thing to keep in mind is if they get a loan facility approved they can push even harder / faster in Canada. Banks should now be far more open providing finance to Canadian O&G companies with low debt and high fcf given what's happening in the world and commodity prices. The push to net zero is the right thing to do, but not at the expense of supporting Ukraine by breaking the Russian economy. The world will still be consuming the same amount of O&G, just a lot less from Russia. With a modest loan draw down (£30m) we could double the Canadian development program, exit 2022 with 25kboepd, and have put up to 3 wells in the Nth Sea targeting hundreds of millions of barrels of Brent. I have no idea how the market would value i3e in the success case with such numbers, but I'd hazard a guess we'd be 2-3x current sp. AIMHO GLA

Jesus. I was thinking $150 oil was a possibility a few days ago. I'm now starting to think we could get closer to $200. It's a perfect ****storm for oil and gas prices. It's to the point that Western governments need to start thinking about policies to rapidly increase production from friendly jurisdictions like US, Canada and Nth Sea. And they need to do whatever is necessary to get the Middle East onside and pumping more O&G. The world economy is about to go back on life support unless they can find enough non-Russian O&G supply to support western economies. Iran is the obvious place to look, but they're just as bad as the f@cking Russians. Ridiculous how western governments are only now waking up to the importance of 'energy security'.

Agree with your points regarding oil sector and wider environment Spike. Not so on the f/o, but then again I've convinced myself the reason we've gone with a minnow is due to mgt's confidence in the acreage and they want maximum exposure to the success case. We simply wouldn't have this with a major. Hopefully we'll know a little more about their thinking after some interviews.

I also agree PI profit taking is playing a part, and perhaps the biggest given the rise we've had over the past month. Having said this I'd still expect the f/o to somewhat insulate us from such large drops if viewed as great news.

You make some good points Spike, and I don't disagree the conflict is playing a part. But the drop started yesterday with the f/o news, and not just today. And not oilers were down yesterday and today.

I did notice there was a war Spike. But the war has been building / happening for well over a month. The poo and gas have been moving upwards with each escalation, as has the value of the O&G sector, and us. So it would be fair to say the sp reaction the past 2 days is directly linked to the f/o, and not poo and gas or long-term macro / geo-political situation / risks. Re BP and Shell, they're directly exposed to the war. As are their assets that are about to be flogged for pennies on the pound. We're not directly impacted in the same way. So I'd say it's the f/o that has created the slump, which I thought was a good deal and why I'm still scratching my head. AIMHO