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Some silly numbers being thrown around here that simply don't match how miners are valued, or how Hum has been valued by the market in our special part of Africa, with our special mgt team.

Reckon its best to look at how much cash we'd be generating with just the two mines. Mind you that will be circa 200k ounces by the end of next year after Kouroussa has been ramped up. Even if AISC for both mines is $1400 they'd still be throwing off $80m (£60m) per year in cash at $1800, or $100m (£75m) nearer current $1900 prices. Using a PE of 4 you get £240m (@$1800) or £300m (@$1900). The PE is greater than what we've historically been able to garner because we'd have two mines that are hopefully running smoothly by then. SP for both these scenarios are circa 65p or 77p.

These are pretty conservative numbers, but one needs to do this when diabolical Dan is in charge. The guy is a muppet and cannot be relied on to deliver anything that comes out of his mouth. Having said this even with a muppet in charge once should be able to hit these numbers, which deliver a 4-6x current sp in just over 18 months. If gold goes to $2000 in that time and AISC are lower than $1400 you get another bag or two. I haven't ascribed any value to Dugbe because there's never been any value ascribed to it, or Kouroussa, to date. We're valued on Yan and until Dugbe is sold it will be worth f@ck all to the sp. Investors only care about producing mines. If pushed, I'd give it 3p post DFS as I think the most we could sell our 51% for would be 10p. The real sp value from 'more ounces' is found in producing mines. So if they uncover another 200k ounces in Kouroussa and Yan over the next 2 years it's likely to generate a whole lot more value to the company than Dube where the gold sits in the ground until someone either buys us out, or we mortgage the house again for another mine. In other words, the Dugbe DFS is worth far less than an updated reserves report with +200k ounces for Yan and our soon to be producing Kouroussa. The annual numbers above - £60-75m for 200k at current gold prices range - support this statement. Even a big fish wanting to take us out would be looking at producing mines over the one they need to develop for another $350-400m. It's just a nice long-term option for them.

Feel free to throw around £1, £3, £5, but imo that all fantasy. GLA

Exactly Tom. And we had a supply issue leading into the Ukraine invasion. Either way this war is not going to end for sometime and oil will remain at / around these levels for as long as the sanctions are in effect, which I would estimate at 12-24 months if the west is playing nice. It's all just noise that allows traders to swing the market. Give it a few days and we'll be swinging back the other way.

Poo appears to be cratering on the back of peace talks and Covid in China. Murphy's Law that we'll get a great rns on Canadian well results in this mini macro downturn. Sadly we have to wait for another 7 weeks before we can expect Q1 results that should remind everyone of how much cash we're generating with WTI +$100 and AECO CAD+$5.00. At least the divi payment every 4 weeks helps with the frustration. And the upside is the longer we linger around 20p the more shares one can buy with each divi payment. GLA

POO could be a bit shaky over the coming weeks due to China / Covid. Good thing gas is still on a tear. I thought it worth reminding people the other day the majority of our boepd is gas. Yes it's less valuable, but when you're getting close to 50% above your forecast price, and it's all profit, then you can see why it's not such a bad thing to have diversified production. Covid in China of course will peter out as they drop the hammer on the virus. But high gas prices are probably here to stay for some time as the US / Canada attempt to address some of Europe's demand needs.

Great news on the f/o last week. Hopefully a solid well result (or two) and confirmation of monies / paperwork being exchanged for the f/o in the next week or two. Then we have divi payment, followed by the next ex-divi date. And hopefully some more Canadian well results and confirmation of additional well(s) to be drilled in the Nth Sea. Steady stream of good news stories for April. GLA

YEESSS!!! We're drilling Serenity in less than 6 months for £7m folks. Hopefully another well in Minos High and an option for a second on Serenity and we have a full, high impact campaign in Summer. This is where the sp can double or more in an instant. And we still have all the upside of Canada and a cr@ckng dividend. The market will soon wake-up to what this means. It could be a month or so before we start drilling, but mark my words the herd will arrive en-masse when the drills are turning and Brent is +$100. If Brent is +$120 then don't be surprised if we're sitting in the 30's before we get any results. In other words we're nailed on for a 25-50% value gain in the next 6 months regardless of how much oil is found. Wonderful end to the week. GLA

Yeah was thinking about it, but not sure why I'd do it when I can have i3e shares instead. The thing is I can get a similar amount of upside if we prove up oil in Serenity by staying here. We have 3 x exposure versus EOG, so although they're much smaller, I don't see the upside being so much greater than ours should we prove up 50m recoverable barrels. There's also the fact we're a producer of 20kboepd underpinned by near record commodity prices, and we can expand our Canadian production very easily, with payback occurring very quickly. And I get a divi that I can reinvest over the next 5-6 months and pick up another 100-150k shares here. Finally if it's a duster the sp here will probably lose 10% from circa 30p, whereas EOG will drop by far more. So long answer short is no I won't be having a dabble.

Not sure if EOG shareholders realize the sp is going to drop to 1.8p tomorrow. I think a lot of them believe it's going to rise after the f/o is agreed, which would surprise me.

Indeed fairdealer. A lot of investors seem to be missing the fact that we're predominantly a gas producer, so although +$100 poo is fantastic, it's even better for us in the present moment to have AECO above $4.50. Gas prices have risen because of the impact of the US supporting Europe with its demand needs. This will add significant upward pressure on Canadian (AECO) prices as well. And this scenario will last as long as Putin is in power, because even if the war ends the west will not lift sanctions until regime change takes place. The poo and gas really could reach much higher levels in the next 12 months if the war continues for even a few months longer. And I believe the biggest riser out of the two will be gas. If you throw in some good H1 Canadian well results, an expanded H2 program, and a strike in the Nth Sea where we prove up 50m recoverable barrels then I think 40p is a very easy target. And this is just 6 months from now with a 5% annual divi yield paid monthly while we wait. For the next 12 months there is zero downside, and just a matter of how much upside. AIMHO GLA

Sorry you guys are in la la land if you think we can get $130m (£100m) for Dugbe at DFS. If they're having such conversations then I'm all for them selling off an asset that could pay off the debt for Kouroussa once built and leave them as a 200k producer with zero debt and able to focus on just 2 x mines. Diabolical Dan can't get a single mine right, so unless daddy replaces junior with a qualified ceo I'd say give him as little as possible to f@ck up and sell whatever you can before he does. Yan should be a doddle, and yet Dan can't get that right. Dugbe is a far bigger fish and best left to professionals. Reckon we'd do well to get $50m for our 50%. And if that offer comes along they should jump at it. Kouroussa is the jewel in the crown, not Dugbe. It's why I'm invested for the short-mid term here. Focus should be on getting it to run at DFS levels. Achieve this with Yan at $1300 AISC and gold @ $1800 and we're 3-4x current sp in 18 months (and we'd still be cheap).

Should have confirmation tomorrow the f/o is proceeding at the EOG EGM. Hopefully funds and paperwork with 2 weeks. We also have Canadian well results, which will surely start trickling through in the next fortnight. And in 3 weeks we get divi reinvestment followed by next ex-divi date. Then more f/o milestones, and well results, and Q1 production results, and the news goes on... I can't remember being in a company with so many good news items regularly being dropped with little to zero risk attached and so much upside. Poo is looking incredible for the near future. And let's not forget gas prices, which still make up the bulk of our production. They're also flying. Some good / great well results alongside f/o confirmation and 24-25p are quite realistic targets. AIMHO GLA

Utterly bizarre that WTI is pushing $115 and we're up 1%. Surely even the average PI lemming would know the best place to put your money right now is an O&G producer that pays an inflation matching divi and has significant value upside.

Simons, agree that a single well in Clearwater or Simonette with those numbers would put an absolute rocket under the sp. I think anywhere above 300bopd and we could get to mid-20's. People need to remember this acreage is as much 'appraisal' as it is 'development'. We don't know how prolific our acreage is versus surrounding peers, but anything above 500bopd would mean our acreage is gold standard and we're sitting on a cash machine.

I think the simplest and best way to reward shareholders (past and future) is to increase the current guaranteed monthly dividend. i3e don't have to pay all at once, which will also limit volatility associated with a large singular outlay (clever). And it will serve to re-rate the sp. We seem to be sitting around a 5% annual yield at the amount. So if they increase the current monthly divi by 20% one could / should expect the sp to re-rate to 25-26p (at same yield levels). This is only an extra £2.25m, so very easy to apply given current cash accumulation and shouldn't impact 2022 exploration or development plans. Simple move that provides a 20% value increase alongside the enhanced monthly dividend for current investors, plus we still get all the upside of Canadian development and Nth sea exploration. Share buy-backs are often a damp squib in my experience, whereas we know this move works. Hopefully it will accompany the Q1 results, which I'm expecting to be quite something.

Dugbe is worth whatever someone will pay for it. I think we've all been in miners / oilers where the 'paper value' is nowhere near what it should be on some bull**** metric. Dugbe is not an easy sell given a) it's in Africa and b) it's not cheap to build. Having said that I agree it's too big for Pasofino / Hum unless they sell a large stake in the project. And even then it's a lot of money to raise e.g. if they sell 60% for $50m, they'd still need to find $110m for their 40% of the project. The partner would need to part with $290m for their 50% inc. build costs. Don't see that as likely.

What I do think is likely is HUM being taken out on the cheap, which is what I think Dugbe will accelerate. If they can show that Yan AISC can be maintained at sub $1400 for 2022 then I'm expecting a £125-150m buy-out offer (2-3x current sp) later it in the year. Buyer would pick up a profitable 100k producer (circa $40m profit per year @ Gold $1800) and another mine that will be making at least $75m annually from Q3 2023. Dugbe (and Bunker Hill) are just icing for the big player. Pay-back for £150m (circa 40p) purchase price would be less than 2 years and they'd have at least a 10 year life-span plus optionality with Dugbe / Bunker Hill. Reckon most here would jump at a 35-40p buy-out price. Obviously if Gold goes on a Great Recession type tear up to or beyond $2500 then we're likely to get a higher multiple.

Bottom line, I'm not buying for Dugbe. I'm buying for the update to the reserves report, and the Q1 results that show a marked decrease in AISC (nearer to $1500) with a committed outlook of $1300 AISC for the remainder of the year. This will get us back to the mid 20's and on the radar of bigger players. Add 1 or 2 quarters of $1300 AISC and I can see a bid in the 30's coming in end of year. Gold price is clearly the big question. But so long as it stays above $1800 and AISC from Q2 are nearer $1300 then we're double current sp. Will need at least 2 quarters of this level of production given the ****show overseen by the trust fund baby the past 2 years. DB is the biggest drain on value here.

Correct anon. If the trust fund baby was replaced by a seasoned, qualified ceo the sp would re-rate to +20p in an instant. Says it all really. The guy is an absolute joke and the main reason PIs and IIs hold back from investing any more money here. If I delivered the same results as Betts in my job there's no way I'd still be employed. A monkey shaking a magic 8 ball could deliver better results than Betts.

Having said this the value destruction overseen by Betts has made this a remarkably cheap company for buyers at this level. You just need the requisite guts / nerve to trust him, which is quite a gamble. GLA

News wise, at the very least there will be confirmation of funds for the f/o, providing EOG shareholders approve the deal / raise on Friday. This is the first and most important step for the f/o to proceed. It basically says it's happening. Having said this we won't have a definitive idea of 'when' until the OGA gives its blessing to the field being split and EOG being our partner. I'd then expect the stages following the OGA rubber stamp exercise to be quite fast - National Security and Investment approval, and Loan Note holder approval. Even if it takes a month or so longer than expected we're still drilling in October.

In the meantime over the next 6 weeks we should have confirmation of the f/o proceeding, initial H1 Canadian development results trickling through, another dividend payment and ex-divi date, and finishing with some bumper Q1 results. I hope we'll also have an announcement of another well in the Nth Sea (Minos High), and a greatly expanded H2 Canadian development program in this time-frame.

So lots to come in the next 6 weeks. And much, much more over the next 9 months. And we still get a +5% yield at current sp for our time, unless they decide to increase it. If I wasn't b@lls deep already I'd put even more money into this stock. AIMHO GLA

C'mon guys, fact is DB had zero qualifications to be a ceo of a gold mining company. None. So yes he is a trust fund baby who was given a shiny toy by daddy. And like most unqualified trust fund babies he's also a pr@t. His track record supports this statement. If he actually starts delivering on targets and what's expected of someone in his well remunerated role then he'll still be a trust fund baby, but at least he'll be a competent one.

As for great deal making abilities, can't agree with that one. He's more of a spray and pray guy. What exactly was his strategy with CORA? I can assure you it wasn't to sell the stake years down the line for f@ck all. The purpose of this investment was indeed to absorb it into our Malian operations. But because Dan is a pr@t he had to sell the stake to prop up the core business because it wasn't operating anywhere near what it should be. Then of course there's the joke Bunker Hill investment. Dugbe was the right thing to do only because of our issues with Yan. I'll admit Kouroussa was a good deal.

But consider if we had a competent, qualified ceo in charge. We'd have Yan operating at 110k ounces per year at AISC of $1200 (still much higher than DFS). We'd have more money in the bank and less debt. We'd have Kouroussa. I imagine we'd still be holding onto CORA. And probably still 100% ownership of Dugbe taking it to DFS ourselves. However we wouldn't have wasted any time or money on Bunker Hill. All of these things would be possible if he got the basics right in his job and had Yan operating near DFS commercials.

Here's another reality, the company has been saved by the pandemic and now the conflict in Ukraine. If gold hadn't been sitting above $1800 for the past 2 years the company would be bankrupt. So yes he's a f@cking joke trust fund baby and needs to pull his silver spoon out of his @ss or step aside and allow a professional to do his job. I've been accumulating below 14p because of his incompetence, which has presented a great short-mid term investment opportunity. But I very much feel sorry for lth's who've had to pay for his gross incompetence. I'm invested because even diabolical Dan can't mess things up anymore than he has managed to date. And it's not 'Mali'. Unless someone can point out an African 100k per annum gold producer, with another 100k production to come next year, and a DFS on a multi-million ounce play due in 1 month, all for an Mcap of circa £50m...? That says it all about DB.

I like your optimism Ark but I don't think we'll be seeing 30p until drills are turning in the Nth Sea and poo and gas are still at these levels (or higher). I do however believe we'll be pushing 25p with some decent H1 Canadian well results and confirmation of the f/o going ahead. I'm also hoping we announce another drill in Minos High and an option for a second appraisal (providing the first is successful). Plus a significantly expanded H2 Canadian development program. All good news items, all of which should be announced before the end of April if the exploration / development plans are to go ahead in Q3. In the meantime we get to sit back and collect a market leading dividend. Bonkers that we're still below 21p (5% annual yield level). GLA

Confirmation that f/o goes ahead next Friday, and hopefully some initial well results in the next 2 weeks. With some decent flow rates, and poo holding above £100, I'm expecting to see us back above £250m Mcap (22.5p). Looking forward to the next few weeks. Enjoy the weekend weather everyone. GLA

So you know that 425k buy was mine fellas. I think £50m Mcap is the absolute bottom, which is ridiculous to say for a 100k producer with another mine to come online in 1 year, and another about to announce their DFS. And both projects being +1m ounce resources. Goes to show just how **** DB happens to be as a CEO. Complete clown, but even a trust fund baby f@ck up of DB's stature would find it hard to make things any worse from here. Any weakness and I'll be adding up to a total of 1m shares. Providing pog stays +$1800, I see another 50% upside here in the next 6 months, and 200% in the next 18 months. This of course relies on DB doing his job and delivering on the very modest Yan numbers of $1350-1450 AISC for 90k ounces. Hardly a stretching target. Even a monkey should be able to hit those numbers with an open pit mine in Africa. GLA