Member Info for G_G_G

Wow, you've literally got nothing Bushy. You should probably walk away from your screen now. You're making an even bigger fool of yourself, as hard as that is to accomplish.

People would be wise to start doing their own research over listening to some of the idiots on here recently. Not mentioning any names German Goo Girls.

I can only assume the above childish remark is directed at me Bushy? This comment, along with your commentary on HUM over the years, really do highlight the level of intellect you possess. Funny thing, if investors on here were listening to me, and not you, they'd be a whole lot wealthier right now. So who's the id!ot then? I said Dugbe NPV would be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit at Yan. Guess what, the market has negatively valued Dugbe since its release. And that's from a historically woeful mcap of £50m. Based on your track record of talking b@llocks on this share from the 30's down to here I'd strongly suggest that people ignore your comments and that of some of the other clueless posters who've been calling a return of the 30's and 40's for the past year. The sp will re-rate once they can show they're turning a profit at Yan. Not before-hand. The market cares for little for things such as Dugbe unless they know the company is solvent. I'm sure an operationally led seasoned CEO could do wonders with this company. Alas your wealth is in the hands of a trust fund baby. Junior gets paid a salary and given a shiny title to make him feel important, whilst your money goes down the drain due to his spectacular incompetence.

Moon, you can keep repeating your inconsistent drivel as much as you like. No-one listens because you're a waste of space. Do the board a favor and keep your thoughts to yourself, which I imagine you hear quite a bit.

Hi guys, I've had this on my watchlist for a couple of years now and tend to drop in whenever the sp is going one way fast. Can someone explain the issues that are leading to the current sp malaise? I just read the Q1 operational results and they don't look too bad. Appears ramp up starts in H2 post Kiln 3 coming on line, and Vanadium prices are comfortably above C1 costs now, let alone when the ramp up completes. Or am I wrong? I'd appreciate if someone could provide a non-rose tinted view of the reasons why the sp has declined so much. Figure it can't be Russia given they're a major producer. Thanks in advance for any responses.

Seriously? Complete opposite effect Jon. It is the perfect thing to do as a new ceo. You start your tenure with cash in the bank and an ability to fund strategic expansion. This is why new ceo's often open the cupboard to bare skeletons of past mgt. You set a low bar and then work your way up. Impossible to work your way up if you need cash that isn't coming in due to factors completely out of your control. If he does raise then I'll put money in here. If he doesn't, then I'll sit on the sidelines and watch the sp continue its downward spiral whilst knowing there's a chance he'll need to raise in 12 months at a much lower rate. Reckon there's a lot of others thinking the very same thing, including IIs. The first thing he should do is raise, otherwise short-term he's f@cked. The only thing that will make investors money here (other than shorting) is a t/o offer.

Arnold, Investroid, agree with much of what you've both said. Also agree with the point of needing to raise. If I was ceo that would be something I'd be lookin to do now, rather than later. Raise £150-200m to solidify the company and position it for the re-bound in 18-months to 2 years. There will be a lot of holes in the category in a few years that can be filled by the likes of ASOS as Jon Harris has pointed out. But always better to raise up here when you know the mcap is likely to decline further, so the company can take advantage of the blue-sky when it appears in a couple years. If they raise more than £100m at +700p in the next month or two, then I'll be sending a lot of money this way. Company will be on a sure footing and can position itself for the future, which ultimately will be bright for players in this category who have the cash to survive the inevitable recession. The fact we're not even at the half-way point of what reserve banks around the world have indicated will be the interest rate in 12-months says a lot as well. AIMHO

Agree with the bears here, although watching with interest. The best opportunities present themselves with companies that are strong enough to weather a storm, as they are the ones that sail into clear blue sky and calm waters when the storm subsides. The many millionaires made by investing in O&G at it's recent bottom will testify to that. But the reality is this sector is just entering the storm, and there's a good 1.5 years before it exits the other side. This industry is going to be hammered in the near-term due to many factors that have been outlined by posters today. Given the wide pre-tax profit range provided by the company, I think the market will value ASOS at the lower end of guidance i.e. £20-25m. And the mcap will slowly re-rate downwards over the next couple of months until it hits £600-700m mcap range (£6-7). There's simply no reason to value the company any higher other than a potential t/o offer. This of course is possible due to how under-valued the company has become when taking a 3-year outlook. But the 1 year outlook in the absence of a t/o offer isn't looking too great, even at the upper end of guidance. Sadly for investors that means more pain. The direction of travel is quite obvious due to the guidance provided. And people also need to remember that guidance keeps getting lowered, so £20m may not even be the bottom. In the absence of news that strongly suggests the upper end of guidance will be hit, I'd only put money in here as a short. AIMHO

We've got 2-2.5 weeks until we see if the turnaround has started in earnest. All we need then is for copper to go on another run around the same time and we're back in the 30's. Another +650tn month for July and I can see us pushing the 40's. Just 6 weeks of good results and we're at least +50% from here (with copper remaining +$4). Would be great to see another director buy in the meantime. And by another director, I mean someone other than TB. And for more than 25k. That should guarantee a solid re-rate if we manage to beat 650tn for June. AIMHO GLA

I think it's your post that makes no sense Guvvi. Posters on here keep talking about the value of all HUM's assets. But the fact is that HUM is worth £40m give or take, even when producing close to 100koz per year, and another mine being built to deliver a similar amount of gold. Oh and another with an NPV in excess of half a billion with an 8% discount. This should be the greatest investment opportunity that AIM has to offer, and yet the company has an mcap of £40m. I've traded here twice based on the value of the assets, and made money only due to the blind optimism of posters thinking 'next quarter will be better' and pushing up the sp. Each time I sold before results due to a lack of confidence in the trust fund baby to deliver quite simple targets. Even with the mcap at this ridiculously low level, and lower than my 3 previous entry points, I wouldn't put money in here. Simply because the company is losing quite a decent amount of money each quarter. Incredible to say really. That a company mining in AFRICA can't get 20koz out of the ground at less than historically high gold prices of $1800. If there's such a thing as criminal incompetence, then DB would be locked up. I compare DB to the RMM ceo Toby Bradbury and the gulf in their CVs and results is incredible, which is why Toby is successfully turning around RMM operations after years of poor results, while DB can't even tie his f@cking shoe-laces. With DB in charge the company will never realise its potential. Get in a seasoned, world-class operator, and then watch this fly.

Casey, don't you think C1 costs at $4 for H1 is a little pessimistic? We've produced over 2ktn of copper to the end of May. If we add another 650tn for June (2.65ktn H1 total), then it puts our H1 production run-rate as identical to 2019 when C1 costs were $2.58. Even accounting for high inflationary pressure we should still be around $3. I do agree that with a strong H2 where we produce nearer 4ktn we should be able to drive down C1 costs closer to $2 and exit the year with a circa $2.50 average C1 cost. This is where people like myself are arriving at circa $20m profit for the year.

Most important however is whether June production is the starting gun for our sp. If they can demonstrate +650tn per month then even with copper averaging $4, and inflationary pressures keepngn our C1 at $2.50, we should be able to turn a forward 12 month profit of +$20m. Apply a ratio of 5-6 and you get an mcap of £75-90. This is how I arrive at 50-60p fair valuation.

Just got to vote out the trust fund baby if you want to see sp appreciation. The Dugbe npv could be $1bn and you'd still have the sp down here because shareholders remember the npv and aisc of the current loss making Yanofila mine. HUM can't mine in AFRICA at less than historically very high gold prices. The only reason why miners go to Africa is the very low AISC counters sovereign risk. And yet DB after all these years still can't get gold out of the ground for under $1800. Says everything you need to know about his qualifications to be a ceo.

Sorry to see the sp here fellas, but I'd suggest the only way this company will ever be turned around is if the trust fund baby is voted out. DB is famous across the small cap miner boards for being a silver spooned pr@t. Hopelessly under qualified to do anything in senior mgt in a mining company, let alone be a ceo. And sadly daddy is also on the board.

On the gold price question. I asked the very same thing years ago and was told all the gold dore is sold to the Betts family business, who then on-sell - is this correct or have I got it completely wrong? If so, it means the family are making money regardless of whether the mine is running at a loss. Worth pondering alongside, how in god's name a mine in Africa can be running at a loss after it has been built and ramped up, and when gold is near all time highs and staying there. Shows mind-boggling incompetence and just how **** junior is at his job.

Also to the poster who kept saying that Dugbe DFS would 'blow the doors off'. Clearly you were wrong. And you clearly have no experience of how DFS statements often do little for a sp. This is especially the case when the miner cannot run the one mine they have at a profit. So why would anyone believe anything written in the DFS. And the NPV using 5% is a joke. Just like DB.

Hopefully the next set of quarterly results will show a modest profit, and some of you get a chance to ext. But sadly I have a feeling it will be more of the same. Angers me so much when unqualified trust fund babies are given things that negatively impact the wealth of others. You can vote the pr@t out though. GLA

Toptuf, in my experience it takes a lot longer to flush out large sellers(or churn placing shares) than most people believe, because as you've pointed out not all major sells will be K2. I think most people need to think in terms of a maximum of half being K2 and set their expectations around that level. There will have been a lot of people panic selling over the past couple of weeks due to market turbulence, so the ratio could be even lower. If indeed K2 are still offloading then I think at current low volumes we're still going to have them with +1m shares in three weeks when the June numbers land. Providing we get a week or two of +2.5m trading days, and ideally half of them as +5m trading days then we should see the end of them. It will hopefully be one of those scenarios where we get an uplift, hold / minor re-race from K2 selling, then a decent push upwards toward fair value. I'd much prefer us to be sitting above £45m mcap when this happens, as it will give us a better probability of breaching £60m mcap (if we hit +650tn production). Only 3 weeks to go now. Expecting the final week to start building so perhaps another week or two of this crazy low valuation before we see an upward move. Would be nice to get some decent director buys in that time-frame as well. AIMHO GLA

Wow I didn't think my limit order would get filled. That's my 25k at 26.4p. Very happy with that. If it drops any further I'll pick up some more. Absolute bargain at this price if they announce +600tn in less than 4 weeks. As many have said it's pretty much nailed on now, especially given they're not doing the power upgrades until winter. We should get 6 months of uninterrupted production where they can show us what this mine can really do. I'll be amazed if we're not back in the high 20's in 2 weeks. And even more amazed if we're not back at £60m mcap (38p) after they announce +600tn for June.

This is the sort of investment where I've made a lot of money in recent years. As an example I still hold 4m shares in i3e with a single digit average thanks to the market not believing in the turnaround story for ages. That stock also pays me close to £6k post tax in dividends every month as all my shares are held in ISAs. They had a similar story with over-hangs from significant dilution to fund acquisitions / production. RMM have done a similar thing to fund long term production. And like i3e, they're in a commodity that will be very strong for the near future. The market often provides fantastic opportunities for the very same reasons. The lack of belief in the turnaround story, dilutory over-hangs, and a reasonable sized seller provides an absolute gift here. If I didn't add so many at 28p I would have a lot more right now. Only upside from this crazy mcap, and by the time those sitting on the sidelines realize they're missing out we'll be at least 30-50% higher than today with further to run each month. I'll keep adding if there's any more weakness. AIMHO GLA

I don't think it matters whether the sp surges one way or another. The upside of large surges are they flush out weak, often smaller hands, and bring in new money at a higher average. This in turn makes the new money less like to sell until their buy-in price has been exceeded. No-one likes getting 'spiked', but this isn't necessarily a bad thing as the gap is always filled if +ve momentum is maintained. And this can happen very quickly if you've got monthly updates that are very +ve alongside strong macro factors, which is hopefully our new environment.

I'm also not in the same place on how much information we need for a re-rate to occur. History is the best place to look for what can happen in future. In our history we have surged past £60m mcap (+38p) a number of times on promise alone. So I fully expect us to get back to this level, which is what I'd call a re-rate (+50%), after we break 600tn for the next two months. I also think we could get there with a single +650tn month and reinforced positive guidance / outlook. Although it would be good to see our profitability and growth plans, I don't think the market will wait to see them before the sp increases significantly as enough information has been shared to date for us to know we'd be making £15-20m profit range at 7k tonnes and 3k oz. Apply a pe of 5-6 and you get a range of £75m mcap (worst case scenario) to £120m mcap (best case scenario). I think we'll quickly get to the lower end within 2 months and then progress to to the upper end after 9-12 months of +600tn production levels and copper above $4. This means a sp range of 45p - 75p over the next 12 months providing they can maintain +600tn. PE will be lower as we're a single mine with a history of f@ck ups. Anyone thinking we'd be assigned a higher pe needs to re-look at how small cap miners with our history are valued. Even Rio is on a single digit pe with a double digit dividend, which says it all.

Basically, I'm incredibly +ve on the future prospects here, but not going to get carried away with valuations until they've got the ore sorter and broken 10k tn with copper @ +$4. If this happens with at least 6 months of sustained production above 800tn per month then will be far more inclined to talk about £1 parties. This I imagine will be in 18 months if they keep up the +600tn from now. AIMHO GLA

Perhaps the most surprising thing today is the volume of shares changing hands. I would have thought closer to 10m rather than the 2-3m we are likely to see. Happy for the sp to drop back a touch and I’ll take a full 1m. Equally happy for us to push up into the 30’s and for me to miss out. Strange place to be stuck at 26.75p and £42m mcap. Let’s see what tomorrow and next week brings. They now need to focus on achieving a +600tn month, and ideally a +650tn month to show the market the level is easily attained. I’ll review my holding when we hit £60m mcap, which I think will be in the next 6 weeks.

Forgot to add that £50m Mcap (32p) really does feel about right for us now. If we don’t get there in the next couple of weeks I think it’s pretty much guaranteed before the next results in 4 weeks time.l as most will know we’re odds on for 600-650tn range and 200-300oz. When confirmation lands we can then move back to the £60-70mcap range that feels about right for a 7000tn producer with a few thousand Oz of gold for good measure. Easy +50% in 4 weeks and 75% within 8 weeks. GLA

Crazy delayed response this morning. Good thing as I picked up another 100k in the low 25’s, so actually at break even now for my 950k. Also holding more than TB :) Not brilliant news but certainly above average and almost the +550tn with positive outlook that I thought would take us to the high 20’s / low 30’s. Good thing is there was very little volume in the low to mid 20’s so a limited amount of trading can be expected from buyers at these levels. Most volume I imagine is sitting at a high 20’s to low 30’s average so I don’t expect a lot of flipping until we hit the +35p as why would some one flip for 10-20% with +40p due in just 4 weeks. Barring any catastrophe I think we’re nailed on for the 40’s in 4 weeks with +600tn production level, and the low 50’s if we get two more months at these levels. People need to remember at the recent production figure we’re producing at close to 6500tn and +2500 ounces annually. Very good numbers that are only going to get better as grades and throughput improve. Looking very good for the future. Well done holders.

I thought the power changeover was in April…?

TSSZ, they're not excellent buys. They're modest and we need 10x more of them to get back to 28p. No point trying to drum up excitement with nothingness. Quite simply, everything hinges on the next production update. If they're below 500tn with more **** excuses or 'jam tomorrow' we'll get punished. And all the 50k director buys in the world won't make a difference. Or a booming copper price. Or the reserve profile.... These are all 'knowns' and haven't made any difference to where we currently find ourselves.

At a base level I think we need production above 500tn with a positive outlook to have us sitting in the 27-30p channel again. Above 550tn I can see us in the low 30's. And if above 600tn then we're off to the races. Copper price is supportive so all that matters is the production numbers and whether the bod can deliver on their words. We now have 1 week to wait. They better not have f@cked it up because they have truly run out of road on the excuse front and will end up being considered in the same vein as HUM. Perhaps the worst example of great assets run by **** mgt on all of Aim. One can see how they've run out of excuses by the fact we're still sitting at 25p in the run up to the expected 'turning point'. We've shot to 40p on nothing before. We'll be lucky if we get back to 28p by Wednesday close at this rate. AIMHO GLA