RE: MIXED FEELINGS27 Jun 2022 13:09
Hi Professor, bottom of post are the C1 costs and production levels quoted for previous years. My views when this was originally posted are as follows:
- We've produced over 2ktn of copper to the end of May. If we add another 650tn for June (2.65ktn H1 total), then it puts our H1 production run-rate as identical to 2019 when C1 costs were $2.58. So even accounting for high inflationary pressure this year, we should still be around $3.
- Regarding H2, should we produce nearer 4ktn we should be able to drive down C1 costs closer to $2 and exit the year with a circa $2.50 average C1 cost (imo).
- Above numbers are why many are forecasting $15-20m profit for the year.
As you've pointed out, most important is whether June production is the starting gun for our sp. If they can demonstrate +650tn then even with copper averaging $4 throughout 2022, and inflationary pressures keeping our C1 at $2.50, we should be able to turn a forward 12 month profit of $15-20m. Apply a ratio of 6 and you arrive at 45-60p valuation (worst / best case). Obviously the Cu price could drop and we average $3.75 for the year, however that would mean circa $3.50 average for H2. With China re-opening, Chile strikes, and stimulus plans kicking in for H2, I'm more confident we'll average circa $4, but could obviously be wrong. Either way if they can show +650tn and retain this level moving forward I do believe C1 guidance for 2022 in September will be quite positive. The future much more so. And certainly enough to warrant a sp in the 30's at a minimum. Not long before we find out if the starting gun is to be fired in the next 7-10 days.
2018 4,187t Cu, 4,189oz Au, C1 costs 3.30
2019 5,299t Cu, 4,887oz Au, C1 costs 2.58
2020 3,769t Cu, 2,819oz Au, C1 costs 3.45
2021 3,418t Cu, 1,805oz Au, C1 costs 4.29
* C1 = cost per lb of Cu ($), net of credits