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Really scratching my head at the sp reaction here. For us to move backwards when the f/o is secured, and mgt have held onto 75% of the field is truly bizarre. As I've said I believe mgt have done this deal because they're confident in the acreage and didn't want to give up 60-75% to a major for a single well when we have so much spare cash. I do agree an explanation is in order though, and I'm not sure why we haven't heard one by now. Surely they know it's worth updating the market on this massive news, especially when we've been waiting for years, and they've chosen to go with a minnow. Ultimately I think it's a great deal. But investors need to hear from mgt and not me as to the reasons why. Ultimately we have to pay £7.5m to drill 1 high impact appraisal well. Not an exploration well because we've already made a discovery, but a well to get an understanding of just how much oil is in the acreage. We also have more than enough cash for a follow-up drill in the success case. And to stick one in Minos High and then come back for a follow-up. In the success case our mcap would be +£400m so I don't think anyone would care that we've spent half of our remaining 2022 fcf on 3 wells. Hell if Serenity and Minos High comes in with a couple of hundred million recoverable barrels we'll become a $bn company overnight. Hopefully some interviews next week. Plus the next ex-divi date to stop some of the rot. If it's still down here this time next week it's pretty easy to see where divi money will be going as well. I expect us back to 22p by the end of next week. Perhaps it will take EOG shareholders approving the deal before we move above 25p. Either way it's fantastic that we're finally drilling Serenity. And hopefully we'll be doing more than just 1 well. AIMHO GLA

That's almost 8m in volume @ +21p by 1.30pm. Quite a lot of money that has changed hands. We also appear to be bouncing off that £250m mcap number once again - market loves round numbers. Hopefully this is the bottom and with one or two pieces of good news we'll be pushing back up toward £300m. I also can't think of any bad news that can impact us, which is a pretty rare thing to say for an AIM quoted company.

Jolly, EOG won't have any issues raising more cash if the first well is a success. In my head the best course of action would be to drill the appraisal, then put a well into Minos High, then come back to drill another appraisal in Serenity if required. You option the last Serenity well, and you'd have at least a month or two before you need to be back drilling the second target. EOG would be raising another £7.5m on the back of a commercial find, which is nothing if your mcap has just shot up to £100m. With initial Serenity success a minnow can be more nimble than a major. My only concern is some of he paperwork falling over. I simply cannot explain the sp reaction, it makes zero sense. But the next ex-divi date, plus first divi payment being reinvested, plus booming commodity prices I'm sure will pick up the slack in the next week or so until paperwork is finalised and the market comes to its senses. There's also the first Canadian development results that will drop in a few weeks, and for months to come. AIMHO GLA

That was my initial thoughts as well Jolly. I've always thought a major would give us a free carry drill in order to take something like 65% of the field. But if mgt are confident that Serenity is a commercial field it makes sense to hold onto as much as possible. We will of course need to drill more than one appraisal well if the first is a success. But this isn't a problem because we're not having to pay the full 100% each time, and we still have massive exposure to the success case. It also makes sense if a major wasn't uninterested in exploring the other targets. The money we save on the Serenity appraisal covers half a high impact exploration well into our other acreage, which is still 100% owned. It would give us two cracks at our Nth Sea acreage for circa £20m (2 wells) that are 75% and 100% owned, and with oil prices going ballistic for a few years to come. Makes total sense to go with the minnow at this stage if you're confident in what you're drilling. Really not sure why the market hasn't picked up on this. And completely befuddled as to why we've fallen back when oil and gas prices are still rising, and will continue to do so for months to come.

Reckon the next ex-divi announcement may stop the rot and start us moving slowly upwards again until the paperwork for the Nth Sea is signed and some Canadian results are released. Can see us over 25p in a month. And over 30p when we start drilling the Nth Sea with hopefully more than one well. And investors get a circa 5% divi yield paid monthly while we wait. Still the best investment on my watchlist for security (geo-political, conflict & inflation), value and income over the next 12 months. I also don't see the green agenda being an issue for some time - I think they're finally starting to understand what 'energy security' really means. AIMHO GLA

Oh and we closed on 24.5p in Canada on quite solid volume for them. The market is truly bizarre sometimes. Hopefully some PR and interviews soon.

Have to say I'm surprised by the reaction here, especially given oil is comfortably through $110 and AECO gas is back through USD$3.50. These numbers are huge compared to what was used to estimate our NOI at the beginning of the year. When we popped to 24p it seemed reasonable given the first major hurdle of raising the cash has also been cleared. But to be falling back...? The market is truly ret@rded sometimes.

Anyway, there's obviously a few more stages to go, but as we get to the point that all our ducks are lined up and it's the final 12 weeks before drilling, then I'm expecting us to start rising from 25p to 30p. Perhaps a little conservative but this is based on just 1 appraisal well going into Serenity. It doesn't account for another drill into the monster Minos High prospect being announced after the fields are delineated, funds approved by EOG shareholders, and all contracts are signed etc. Or for an option into Serenity. Or for poo and gas to remain at these crazy levels (or go higher). Or for Canadian development upside. Or for a significant increase to the H2 Canadian development plan. And all the while we keep getting a dividend that's close to a 5% yield at current sp.

Really is great news that Serenity is finally being drilled and we're retaining the lion's share of the field. Market will come to its senses soon. AIMHO GLA

Hi guys, fwiw I think this is a very good deal. There's positives and negatives to every deal, but as many have pointed out the fact we're drilling Serenity this year (and hopefully still Q3) is what matters most.

Tbh, at first I was a little disappointed it wasn't a major that farmed-in. But as mentioned by Graham and Majid in their recent interview this would mean giving up much more of the field. In my head I had the deal ranging somewhere between 35-50% retained ownership with 1 x free carry on a multi-well drilling campaign. The best deal would be retaining 50% for a single well free-carry, and us financing 50% of the remaining wells. When looking at this deal, that's effectively what they managed to negotiate i.e. we've agreed 25% ownership for 46.25% of 1 well cost, rather than 50% ownership for 1 x free carried well. I'm hoping the reason they went for this deal with a minnow is because of their high confidence level in Serenity, so rather than giving up much more to a major we've held onto as much as possible to get the 1 appraisal well drilled. The issue of course is we don't get support for the other wells. But this is only an issue if we don't decide to go it alone in our 100% acreage, which is why I'm expecting them to announce they will drill another well in our 100% owned acreage once EOG have coughed up the cash for the appraisal well. At less than $20m (£15m) it feels like the best thing to do as we'd already have the rig and I'm sure we could save $1-2m to utilise it. And best of all, we'd still have a lot of excess cash to plough into Canada.

In summary, I really like the deal. For £7.5m we get to see what we have with Serenity and still hold onto 75% ownership. Once EOG secure the funds I'm expecting us to be trading above 25p. I'm hoping mgt then announce another well in our 100% owned acreage once the paperwork is signed. If this happens I think we're guaranteed to be in the 30's when the drill starts turning in 6 months, especially if we have some solid results from the H1 Canadian development campaign. And with a commercial find from either of the wells it's at least a double digit gain. Depending on the size of the find it could be quite something. Another thing to consider is a loan facility. With a $50m loan plus our forecast cash at year-end we could more than double the current Canadian development program, drill an appraisal in Serenity (75% owned), stick a well into our 100% acreage, and still have plenty of cash available for the dividend. We'd be a +25kboepd producer in less than 12 months, have massive exploration upside, and any debt could be repaid within 12 months with current commodity prices.

Either way it's a great deal and I have little doubt that we'll be in the 30's when the drill finally starts turning in the Nth Sea, regardless of whether we're drilling more than 1 well, and /or have a loan. Have a good evening all.

Bots, that's the exact sort of response I'd expect from someone like you - uninformed and ignorant. Here's a little history lesson for you my unlearned friend. Firstly Trump pursued an 'America First' policy. This resulted in him pulling troops out of Syria, Afghanistan (Biden finished the job poorly), and from Europe where he continually weakened and undermined the NATO alliance. So no Trump wouldn't have done anything in this war because it goes against his key policies of America First and being focused on growing the economy at all costs, which is something Putin or an average intelligence monkey would know. There's also the little matter of Putin helping Trump into power. And the fact that Trump, like Putin, is a self-serving psychopath. So there's a better chance he'd do nothing and find ways to profit from the bloodshed. I can agree that Biden is a wet cabbage though.

As for it not being 'our war'. Well I'd say the EU and NATO encouraging and cajoling Ukraine in our direction with the promises of economic and military security is one of the main reasons why Putin has invaded. And so yes, we have played a very big part in this conflict. We've encouraged Ukraine to join our little democracy club and then left it high and dry when Russia did the unthinkable. I'll leave it to you to read the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for some of the other reasons we have a moral responsibility to protect Ukraine. But I'm sure you're well versed on the finer points already. And if you think that Putin wouldn't back down from a unified and hardened NATO / West if push came to shove then you clearly have no idea how he operates. He may be a bully, but he's not stupid, and neither are his inner circle. Btw I never mentioned the UK going it alone, that was your addition you f@cking pr@t.

Tony, perhaps it's best you back up and direct your hard-on for me toward something else. But in response to your latest little jibe, my wife and I are helping Ukranians. She's Polish and one side of her family are Ukranian, as is her brother in law. We have extended family staying in our property in Poland just outside a town called Chrzanow. And we're supporting them financially. My wife being Polish also means I'm quite well versed in her country's history, which bares the deep scars of Russian invasion and occupation. So perhaps best not to make smart @ss comments until you know a little more about the person you're directing them at.

Have a good evening all.

Don't know about you guys but I'm finding it harder to be happy about this investment with each news headline I read. The sad truth is the share price is reacting in step with oil and gas prices, which in turn are being driven by a f@cking madman unleashing terror on innocent people. And my greatest fear is things could get a whole lot worse unless someone kills Putin in the next few weeks, as I don't think the west can sit idly and watch mass murder on our doorstep forever. We encouraged our 'friend' to join us and turn their back on the evil bully next door. And now we stand by while they get massacred for doing exactly what we asked. The Ukranians are so unbelievably brave, and we are not.

Funny how the market likes round numbers for Mcaps, which is why I have a feeling we'll be bouncing off £250m until the next round of news that will hopefully take us closer to our 'fair value' range of £300m mcap (27p). If the f/o lands I can see us getting there in a day. If not I think it will take a few weeks for the next ex-divi date, dividend reinvestment, and hopefully one or two decent Canadian well results to push us to this level. GLA

Jesus this is moving fast. I have a feeling this is the start of both i3e and the wider O&G market re-rate. New ex-dividend date to be announced. Paid dividends to be reinvested. Canadian development updates. And hopefully the f/o. All guaranteed to start and repeat from this month (except the f/o). And of course there's the macro, which will be very supportive for at least the remainder of the year. If we're +22p now and still under-valued versus peers, where will we be in 1, 2, 3 months...? GLA

Barclays, f/o means farm-out.

Tony, as many on here have said it's probably best for this to end, especially since you're clearly starting to unravel.

Clearly you don't care about how your posts come across Nancy otherwise you'd realize you sound like a salty little b!tch.

As for the other points you raised in your little hissy fit, my view on the Cenovus funding wasn't debunked and none of us will ever know if debt could have been employed. Either way it's spilt milk. As for your other comment about a missing dividend, feel free to go back through my posts to see if that's what I was saying. Go on now, you know you love it.

How tall are you btw? You strike me as being very short.

? My investment here just passed £1m in value Tony. I also knew it would take at least 6 months for it to happen (unlike you). So even with the one loss you've found in my recent history (well done you little Nancy Drew), it would appear my crystal ball is working just fine.

Yes Tony I said anchored to the placing price, which means it would keep coming back to the price over time. I also said it could be as long as Xmas (6 months) before we break free. So indeed let's look at the charts - from what I can see we kept bouncing back to under 12p from the 07th July until the 21st December. You can borrow my crystal ball anytime Tony.

Oh and the sp appreciation after the mega-raise was slower than you expected Tony, but not me. As you recall I said it would take 6 months before we break away from the placing price. And we argued over this quite a bit if I recall. Best to keep in mind it not only required that amount of time, but a very supportive macro environment as well.

Yes I was happy to take 20p in a t/o when we were stuck in the 10-13p range. Many on here were saying they wouldn't. But at this point we didn't have oil and gas prices pushing toward ath's. Or a macro environment of inflation, supply deficits, and geo-political risk focused on O&G that will only drive prices higher. Or an extensive, committed Canadian development program. Or a substantial guaranteed monthly dividend. So yes my strategy has changed. And my target alongside it.

I also mentioned that I might trade the f/o after it lands, which I may still do with a small part of my overall holding. More than happy to let the board know when I've done a trade (just like last time), so I can't be accused of slinking around like Doc. Ultimately my target is +5m shares. And if the f/o lands I'll be here until we get drilling results - It would be crazy not to be on that ride.

Oil up 4%. Canada trading at 21.7p. Won't be surprised if we break 21 and maybe even 22p in the next week. Guaranteed news in March:

1. Notification of the next ex-divi date. This will remind many of the 5% yield at current sp being paid out every month, which should further strengthen the sp.
2. First dividend payment. I imagine most PIs and perhaps even IIs will look to reinvest so there's up to £1m to come back from this first payment, and every month thereafter.
3. First Canadian drilling results, which will then start to drip though each month until July when the next phase of drilling begins.

And as always there's the f/o, which sounds very close to being finalised. If we want to be drilling in Q3 I'm struggling to see how anything longer than 4 weeks will allow us the time to get everything in order for the drill bit to start turning in the Nth Sea.

With everything listed above I can see us breaching £300m Mcap, which is 27.5p on f/o completion. When we're drilling in Q3 I see us 30-35p, which still offers a 3- 3.5% dividend and all the upside of Canadian development and Nth Sea exploration. If we hit +50m recoverable in the Nth Sea and Brent is still trading near $100, then I think the 40's will be the new floor. And with +100m boe then +50p is def on the cards. Without f/o 30p. With f/o ? (a lot more). All looking very good here.

Just saw the interview. Really impressive.

As for Canadian peer multiples, like Tony I thought it was a lower multiple of NOI along the lines of 2-4x. Either way with forecast 2022 NOI of $150m (£112m), which could possibly be higher given current commodity price trajectory, our mcap should be in the range of £225-450m. I think it's pretty fair to put us around the mid-range i.e. 3x NOI, given our weighty guaranteed dividend, low debt and significant value upside potential with Canadian development and / or Nth Sea appraisal / exploration. Add to these things rising commodity prices and inflation, plus energy security concerns due to geo-political risk, and I can see the entire O&G sector re-rating in the coming months as well. At 3x NOI it equates to an Mcap of circa £336m or 30p. If O&G starts to re-rate as well then 40p really isn't out of the question. Bottom line, we're still significantly under-valued versus peers, and if we can finally get that f/o sorted in the coming weeks / months then +50% (+30p) will happen very fast indeed.

Regarding the f/o, it's hard to tell who could be the farminee based on what was mentioned. What I could tell is they expect it to be finalized quite soon if drilling is estimated to begin in Q3. That's only 6 months for funding, paperwork, and drill rig to be booked and in place. So feels like weeks rather than months before the funding commitment stage is finalised. And if not, well we can always throw another $40m at our Canadian acreage. If they choose this route and the +15 or so wells perform in line with our current development program expectations then we could reasonably expect to be exiting this year with 25kboepd and more liquids weighted. So whether we drill Nth Sea or increase Canadian development it's hard not to see us at +30p in 10 months. And if we do drill Nth Sea and prove up commercial oil I think the 40's is almost guaranteed. And all the while we get a big fat monthly dividend for our patience. Hard to see any downsides here. GLA

Could still be Repsol Sinopec where I imagine the delay is on the Chinese side. Anyone familiar with Chinese partners will know they need to get sign-off from above just to scratch their @ss, and this often takes months / years. Hopefully still them. And hopefully not too much longer GLA