Member Info for G_G_G

Could be the case Viable - there's a lot of imbeciles investing money. But one would have to be so unbelievably stupid to short this company. It's under-valued on every metric, and is about to drill a high impact well in an energy crisis. It's perhaps the worst short on AIM. But then again, you never know.

I'm hoping they give a solid boost to the monthly divi instead of a lump sum / special divi. It would give the sp a shot in the arm, which for whatever reason seems to be required to get us back into the 30's. And it would provide a degree of support for a duster in the Nth Sea. Given the amount of money we're generating they should be able to pay out .16-.17p next year, so why not take the divi up to this amount now, and then commit to this level for 2023. SP should re-rate to 30p almost instantly, and find a new floor there given production will only increase next year. They could fund the 2023 divi and a similar sized capital program from the cash generated in q4 and q1 next year providing commodity prices stay at this level, which should almost certainly be the case. Still a good price to get in. We've got spud news, half-yearly results, and maybe an increased / special divi in the coming weeks. One could quite reasonably expect us to put on 30% on the back of these things. AIMHO GLA

I've said it before, but it's amazing how the market will anchor companies to nice round mcaps or sp figures. We've been bouncing off £300m mcap for the best part of 6 months. And the ceiling that we've been unable to overcome is £400m. Funny isn't it. Anyway, at least we know our baseline for now. I'll be very disappointed if we're not at £400m (33p) when the drill results are expected in 6 weeks. I was hoping we'd be at £450m but the way we're sitting down here I'm not so confident it's going to happen unless they boost the monthly divi and do some PR of the half-yearly results, which are very good. This would help to get us back to the low 30's very quickly. Anything beyond this level and it's down to the size of herd arriving in the coming weeks :) AIMHO GLA

Have a google of mines coming online Yugo. I didn't write the articles and studies. And the time-frame is 5 years for the demand side to start out-weighing supply unless the upcoming correction is very deep and long. In this case add a year or two because it will put the brakes on all those EV cars everyone keeps saying will be on the roads. And to be clear, the primary issue won't be the Cu price in the short-term. It's the cost to mine it. And perhaps ask yourself why the Cu price is so low if we're about to run out of global supply.

I'm assuming we can mine below or near $3 when producing at 650tn per annum based on historical costs and adding 25-30% inflationary pressure. If this turns out to be the case when we finally see some costs, then I expect the sp to increase not just because we're generating cash (as modest as it may be at $3 AISC), but we're also poised for growth as we increase mine production (decreasing cost per tn), coupled with decreasing inflationary pressure in 12-18 months. You only need to add a couple more years before you get the $12kt Cu price being bandied about when the supply crunch hits, but it will slowly rise from current levels to this price over the 3-5 year period.

Finally, I've said previously I still hold significant investments in HZM and i3e for far longer than +90% of you so called long-term investors here. Wrt RMM, if I feel the time is right to sell, or indeed buy more here, then I'll do it. At the moment I see the company as worth buying at this level. It's why I doubled my position and lowered my average to 26p from when I started buying at 28-30p a few months back. But that doesn't change the fact there isn't going to be a Cu supply crunch in the next couple of years. Some folks need to read a little more widely about their investments, and not just parroting what perma-bulls like Multibagger et.al write here.

Cornish I appreciate your pov but the current gas price has nothing to do with resource scarcity. It's simply a supply crunch driven by western sanctions and dialed up by Russia saying 'f@ck you' and turning off the taps. Also added to by the US foreign policy under Biden being disrespectful toward the Middle East who are unwilling to come to the rescue of the 'west'. It's really down to a geo-political clusterf@ck. I do agree however that when the Cu supply shortage does appear it will be a genuine supply crunch due to a lack of resources. Just not firmly in the camp of the supply crunch being now. The Cu price would support this statement. Otherwise it would be the equivalent of gas.

Propinquity, yes the copper supply / demand equation is going to swing to a deficit in 5-10 years. But in the near future most 'experts' believe the copper supply side is more than sufficient. As I've said previously you should google this information as it runs contrary to the 'world running out of copper tomorrow' pov. Give it a couple of years and yes most 'experts' agree that supply is going to be an issue. Just not now. And if there's a Great Depression like crash in the world's economy it will take a few more years beyond current circa 5 year consensus.

Hindhead, I didn't realise I had disappeared over there. I'll think of something controversial to post and get back on the board :)

Thanks for the advice Moon. Perhaps you can teach me how to raise chickens to make ends meet. Do you have any spare space in your Mum's garage / storage area / hovel?

Toptuf, it can't be more boring than reading about the Cu super-cycle coming in 5-10 years time (after all the major mines coming online in the next 12 months create a supply glut).

Probably should add that RMM are fortunate to have lower electricity costs in Canada. But there's no way we're immune to general inflation in everything, which means our costs are nothing like they were in previous years. Mgt need to get them out asap. And if not they should release our production numbers because drill results are doing nothing.

Understand your point Leathal, and by historical standards one could make that argument. But I think one needs to look at the Cu price relative to the costs to extract it. It's why producers are saying $3 is the new $2. Key costs are massive at the moment. Electricity and fuel prices in particular mean companies like ATYM (very well run historically) cannot make any money unless Cu is above $3.50. This is crazy for a producer of their size with a high grade, significant resource. Bottom line, the cost profile is probably not going to be as +ve as many believe. From my pov anything below $3 AISC at +650tn run rate is great (for now). Hopefully they release before or with the half-yearly results. This company needs good news now more than ever given the current Cu price could have further to fall on Fed and China fears.

I think succumbing to anything from Moon is more akin to shooting oneself in the head (rather than foot).

Anyone asking why the sp is dropping only needs to look at what happened a couple of months ago when the Cu prce almost hit $3.10. It's leading the sp direction of travel and we don't have enough 'good news' to counter it at the moment. If you want things to change then email the company and tell them to get their **** together and release the cost exercise that TB said would be ready in 'weeks' in an interview, which was 8 weeks ago. Or ask for the July and August production numbers. If they're hitting 700tn then I imagine that will do something positive, even in the absence of costs and a weak Cu price.

Just a reality check people.

1. Cu price is sinking with an unknown immediate direction of travel. Yes in a couple of years Cu will be strong. But in the short-term supply is not an issue against demand. Anyone who wants to read a little farther than the incessant ramping of the Cu price can see articles stating this.
2. Share price isn't reacting to good news because of the above Cu point, and because we don't have ANY IDEA of our costs. Combine the two and you can see why it's harder for some good drill results to overcome Cu price weakness and unknown costs.
3. No news for for 3-4 weeks. This is an eternity in today's market. Just 3 weeks ago Cu was climbing from $3.50 to touch $3.80. A further 3 weeks before then it was trying to break $3.30. It's why I've been saying in this market the company should always release good news when they have it, especially if trust issues (for good reason) remain. It's not like they haven't surprised the market with bad news on a number of occasions.
4. We don't know our cash position. Moon is a f@cking !diot who has been shouting 'raise' even after they've just completed one. But the fact is we don't know costs, and if they're particularly high they could have eaten into any modest existing cash pile over the past 2-3 months. All AIM companies are guilty of trying to pump their share price with anything and everything to get some more money. I don't think it's the case here, but the distrustful part of me says 'maybe'.
5. VW buying us out. HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!!!!

Feel free to call this a de-ramp, but with the exception of my last two points all of the above are facts. Google Cu supply / demand and you'll see a different picture to the perma bull story of 'electrification' eating the world's copper supply, which is quite a few years away. Until we get costs in 3-4 weeks (maybe) don't expect the share price to do anything that isn't linked to the direction of the Cu price. At the moment the direction is down and is fueled by fear. Remember the Fed announces another interest rate rise at the end of the month. If you know your macro then you know this is bad for the Cu price. Let's hope the market is pricing in a worst case 75bp rise and there's no more pain to come (at least until the November Fed meeting).

Agree Tony. It's always tricky when they forecast NOI on 'current strip pricing'. To be honest I'm expecting we come in slightly above $200m given AECO will go stratospheric in a couple of months. The other slight disappointment was Serenity is now scheduled to spud mid-September i.e. pushed out by a week or two.

Can you remember the average NOI multiple for Canadian O&G? For some reason I have 2.5 in my head, which would mean we're still quite under-valued by peer standards (who themselves are under-valued).

LL, still think Cu price isn't linked to the sp? Says it all.

Seems silly what has happened here today but that's the issue when you miss guidance by more than 10%. I think a lot of investors saw the 20% reduction in forecast NOI and bailed early doors. What perhaps they haven't considered is that $200m for this year (not forward 12 months) provides an NOI ratio of less than 2 at current mcap. This is crazy when you consider we have net cash (reasonable assumption to be proven in H1 results), will be adding 20% oil / liquids rich production (up to 24kboepd) by year end (just 4 months), and we have our Serenity wild card. Having read the CPR provided by Tony (thanks) I agree with the EOG ceo that we're probably a 50:50 chance of having a commercial field (tens of millions of recoverable Brent). The assumptions in the high case aren't supported by the independent experts, and far too technical for me to understand, but they do agree that i3e's assumptions are plausible. And if that's the case it's in excess of 100m recoverable Brent. Canada at year end is worth 40p all day. And imo we have a 50:50 on adding a further 10-15p (mid-case) up to 40-50p (high case) with Serenity. And while we wait we get a solid monthly dividend.

I think some have also missed the $200m forecast NOI is based on 'current strip pricing'. I don't subscribe to oil dropping below $90 this year, or AECO being stuck in its current slump come Autumn / Winter. In fact I'll be amazed if AECO isn't double digits and oil above $100 at year-end. News today shows Putin adding +100k soldiers to Ukraine war. The war isn't going away in the next 12 months and neither are high commodity prices. Winter is coming and gas is going to explode. O&G is literally the only safe sector to be in for the short-term, other than military / defence. If we stay here or move lower I'll start adding back to my holding from other stocks. Today is a gift, even when you consider NOI has been reduced. AIMHO GLA

1nvest, plain wrong.

MB can you read? Now repeat out loud 'GGG is long on RMM'. So I'm positive on the company and its long-term outlook. But I think moving to quarterlies was the wrong move at this juncture. I said what would happen from day 1, and guess what, it's happening. It's what always happens when you get a news vacuum on a stock that has low trust levels. Even when Cu prices recover, or we get great drill results, the sp is still anchored to a low value until the things that matter are reported. They chose to delay reporting one of those two things for months (production) and the other (AISC) is so over-due it isn't funny. So we've got another 2-3 weeks down here until investors start dipping their toes in the water again on the expectation of good AISC news in the half-yearly results. Again anyone who has been on AIM for even a short period of time knows the promise of good news will also build value (well except for Toptuf it would seem).

Multi, have a read of FreeTheCaterham's post (slowly if it helps) and you have someone else saying the same thing. The sp ain't going anywhere until the expected run in to half-year results with AISC. Reason is very simple, this is the only time the market can expect 'good news' between now and then. As for my position, well it hasn't changed now has it. I still hold over 1m shares because I believe in the turnaround. That doesn't preclude me from stating the obvious, which is regular good news like monthly reports would have pushed the sp higher than it is now. I have no issues with dumping a stock when I've recognised it's going sink. You can decide to 'ride it out' if you wish on such stocks, but you're not going to get a medal at the end for sticking with a dog. Thankfully RMM isn't such a stock, and does represent one of the under-valued, 'under-the-radar' companies that AIM sometimes throws up. And when they deliver the news that I'm expecting (and why I'm invested) then yes it will outweigh the negative of them not delivering good news items that were within their power during a time of market turbulence. We're still in the very low 20's in case you haven't realized and not moving.

Toptuf, well done on being on of those 'retired at 40' AIM investors. Amazing how many there are on lse chat boards commenting on little known micro-caps like RMM. Let me guess, you sold off a tech company? What I've said about AIM psychology and the power of good regular news is hardly rocket science. And if you don't subscribe to it then yeah you're blind, ignorant or both. Feel free to add this to your investment knowledge. Who knows, it may afford you an even bigger caravan.

Just trying to help the blind and ignorant understand how AIM works toptuf. How's your average btw? Must be quite something.

We'll have to wait and see the costs for that to be the case Lew. Fwiw, dilution doesn't bother me if the investment case stacks up. And the ore sorter will no doubt stack up if it lowers our cost profile and adds 2-3ktpa. The point I've been making is we don't get to +20ktpa and £350m mcap without some solid expansion, which will require some solid investment for a company of our size. This means solid dilution, which makes the odds of getting to £2 very low imo due to the number of shares being printed. This isn't de-ramping, whatever the f@ck that is, it's just not pretending that our mcap and sp will appreciate at the same rate as we increase our production rate.