Member Info for G_G_G

Agree Tony and Jez, unless he gets an rns out by end of play then he's failed again at the little things. Our CFO replacement was internal s no excuses there either. Looks like another sternly worded email from me this week. This sort of thing impacts the sp as much as our production increases. What's the point of clearing the important things only to trip on the little things when nearing the finish line. Straight up f@cking amateur.

Hopefully we get that rns on Monday. And hopefully it's good. I'm having flashbacks to my anger at the Q2 update arriving at the end of August, almost 1 month after our peers. Given they've spoken about an update 'later this month' they really need to deliver this one on time. No more delays and tardiness. The production numbers will look great thanks to a ton of cash thrown at it this year. Time to divert some of that cash to shareholders in 2023, to focus on the share price, and to get the little things right. Til Monday then. GLA

Worries me when we're so close to an important trading and ops update that we're going backwards at a decent rate when the market is moving forward at the same rate. Hoping there's no nasty surprises in the next few days. I'd hate to see what happens when the poo drops heavily for 2 days straight rather than increasing at this rate. Will see results soon enough I suppose.

Jezzoo, imo the issue with buybacks is they tend to do bugger all for the sp unless at quite high levels. You'll get some upward movement initially, but once the company stops buying the sp starts to drop. HBR is a good example of this happening. For i3e, the divi costs comparatively little to increase by 50%, and can be paid out monthly which keeps investors 'stickier', and they can distribute the funds in small amounts over a 12 month period. The continually increasing production levels ensures the coffers are being re-filled at a high rate. So divi only would get my vote, alongside increasing production. Out of £200m NOI a total divi payout of £30m is very little, but would result in .25p per month and be massive for yield. Still leaves a ton of cash for development as well. AIMHO GLA

WTI pushing $90. All O&G on my watchlist up, except i3e down by almost 6%. Majid clearly needs to apply some focus to sp appreciation, because our performance versus all peers is truly abysmal.

And wtf is going on with the sp? It's absolutely ludicrous with today's O&G prices that we're at this level when others are appreciating.

No idea the value fairdealer. I'd probably go for a level close to what has been spent on the discoveries, then accept far less :) Anything over $15m would work for me. That's over 1kbopd in Canada, or a 66% dividend hike. They could pay it out over 12 months and the sp would rocket. All remaining fcf form 24kboepd could then go back into production to try and hit 30kboepd by year end 2023. From my pov the Nth Sea licenses are worth far more to the company being sold. AIMHO GLA

Hi Stas, yes I have communicated to them a few times in the past. I'm sure you can imagine how may times I communicated when the Liberator insider trading shambles occurred and the nature of those comms. I've received responses only occasionally, and mainly from Cammarco. Probably because some of my emails have been so harsh.

You're correct in your summation that I think operationally and commercially they're top notch. They've done every single thing that I think is good sound mgt (including things like our hedging program that many don't like). They've also surprised me with genius moves like monthly dividends. But I've always been disappointed with their comms. And more disappointed with their lack of regard for the sp (namely dilution). It's fine to go for growth. But this also needs to be tempered with giving a reasonable amount back to shareholders who have ridden massive dilution events, and occasional disappointment, when things finally turn upwards. This year they went for growth again. Fine. But if they continue with the current level of dividend payments and plough nearly all fcf into production again, then I'm going to sell down. They can easily increase the divi and production from forecast 2023 NOI. And the sp will re-rate to keep us in the 6-7% yield range, which means that an easily afforded 50% divi hike from current levels will result in a mid 30's sp. There's other companies out there that will put on 50% in the next 6-12 months. And if i3e don't pull their finger out and think of their shareholders they're either going to languish in the low 20's, or get taken out for far less than fair value.

As for Nth Sea (not Canada) they should sell it. Quite an error on that one :) The PTAL suggestion is genuine though.

Agreed cash. Mgt have been f'ing woeful at communicating the things that matter, and doing it in a way that gets people's attention. It's fine to let the numbers do the talking, but if that's their strategy they need to make some numbers better, namely the divi. As mentioned I'm not a fan of buy-backs as I don't see them working particularly well unless a significant % of shares are being re-purchased. But an on-going monthly divi should def do the trick if they increase it y 50%. As for Canada, they should sell it and put whatever they get into Canadian drilling or the divi. If the want exposure to a new geography they should make a bid for PTAL. It's listed on both exchanges and would be a brilliant addition. The geography risk of Peru would be offset by the safety of Canada. Both have lse and tsx listing, but combined would get a lot more eyeballs. And they'd be printing close to $300m in cash every year with zero debt. Quite crazy what they could do following such a merger.

Hi Vmax, my post was referring to an expected 2023 capital development and dividend program update in December. It could land in 2023, but wouldn't be a good look for it to be late. I'm hoping (not assuming) there will be an increase to the dividend given our expected 2023 NOI plus 2022 exit production of +24kboepd. Will have to wait and see though.

Is it just a transfer?

Finally a decent day. Hopefully we can have on or two more before the October update. It would be great to see us firmly back in the high 20's before they provide details on the 2023 capital development and dividend program, which I expect to arrive in early December when they announce the January dividend. Scary to think that's less than 6 weeks from now. GLA

And an rns is expected soon. Very hard to believe it could be carry any bad news. Majid of course has the ability to turn a good story into mind numbing **** so hopefully it's so good he doesn't need to say anything.

Have to say I hope your spreadsheet is wrong Tony as I think the market will punish another NOI miss, even with our ridiculous multiples. Unfortunately the average PI simply reads a headline, rather than runs a rule over companies like you do. Out of interest are you using the higher guided production levels for Nov/Dec to calculate NOI?

Either way I'm hoping Majid has the common sense to hold off announcing any reduction in NOI guidance until it's accompanied by the other 3 points you've made. He should also make a point of ensuring any coverage focuses on the +ves such as significant annual production increase, dividend increase, and strong 2023 NOI guidance. To be honest I'd rather they hold off announcing any NOI guidance change until after the period ends. It should be a small miss (if at all), and could easily be influenced by pricing we're yet to experience, plus our expanded production.

As everyone on here knows my one ask of mgt for 2023 is to increase the dividend payout. By exiting 2022 with +24kboepd they can still plough +$75m into development even at lower poo and gas levels, plus increase the dividend to at least .185p per month, and ideally .2p per month. The increase to 0.2p per share amounts to +£675k on the current monthly payment, or £8.1m for the year. This is chicken feed given +$200m NOI for 2023, and barely impacts the sort of capital development plan they embarked on this year. With the exchange rate it makes it even easier to increase payments. And +$75m in capital development should still put an incremental 2-3kboepd on the 2022 +24kboepd exit level. Mgt need to give a little more back if they want the market to value the company better.

Hopefully we get the October numbers this week and we're not waiting until mid-November. AIMHO GLA

https://oilprice.com/

Downbutnotout, please do your homework. In case you have no idea what you're looking at in the above link, then you should refer to Brent for HBR unhedged poo.

Canetoad, I agree we need a catalyst for the sp to trend upwards. We'll soon find out if another production increase is all that's necessary as we'll get Q3 results in the next week or so. If we don't breach 30p on the back of these results then I'd hope that most on here would agree that a divi increase, buy-backs, or a combination of both should be employed rather than just ploughing all excess fcf into more production.

Few things for people to consider.
1. UK producers are getting f@cked by our useless UK government. Until there's clarity on any additional WF tax they will continue to suffer, so SQZ, KIST and HBR aren't great examples for us to compare against. We should always compare ourselves in the way Tony often states, which is to look at NOI and/or fcf multiples against Canadian peers. This removes issues around oil v gas ratios, country risk etc. In other words a more accurate comparison and view of whether we're under/over valued.
2. We're not guaranteed 24kboepd this month. Some on here have been stating this and I fear will be disappointed if we don't reach this level. It will be amazing if we do, as it means we've got 2 more months of generating revenue and NOI at this level and should be able to reach $200m NOI target. If they have to reduce the $200m NOI target for any reason then we know what it means for the sp. Sadly the downgrade of NOI (even though we were on crazy multiples already), plus the Serenity duster, has resulted in us moving toward 20p rather than 40p. A decent jump in production will help to move us back to 30p, but I fear it won't be enough to get us anywhere near our peer NOI / fcf multiples (closer to 40p) without another intervention that generates value / income for shareholders.

Anyway, I'd be surprised if this isn't the bottom. F@cking crazy to be down here, but also why I'll be almightily p!ssed with Majid if we remain in the 20's and he keeps doing things the same way. I think poo and gas are likely to remain static over the next 6 months. There's lots of tailwinds - tight supply, -2m bopd OPEC from November and willingness to cut further, US strategic reserve supply ending, EU ban on Russian crude, Iran sanctions still in place. However there's also some pretty big headwinds to contend with as well - GLOBAL RECESSION that has already begun, China recession and further Covid lockdowns, guaranteed interest rate rises. Ultimately though OPEC wants to keep prices above $80 so will continue to cut supply if they start to drop. This is why I believe we'll stay in this range. On the gas side people need to keep in mind that Russian has already stopped supplying Europe and a proportion of their normal supply cannot find a home. So ultimately prices will continue to bounce in the current range imo.

O&G still the best industry to be in at the moment, but whether i3e is still one of the best places to be in this industry will depend on what Majid releases for the 2023 development and dividend programs

I forgot that useless, shameless pr!ck is also interim Chairman. Incredible how talentless trust fund babies are protected in this world. Daddy is a non-exec director so I guess the only thing is to try and oust him at the next AGM. He's not going to resign. Even if the company goes bankrupt he'll take a salary right to the end.

Jesus this company never fails to disappoint. I said it years ago as an investor and will say it again, Dan Betts the trust fund baby needs to be sacked. Never in my life have I seen someone under-deliver to this level and keep their job. If it wasn't for Daddy's money he wouldn't have a job. He's as shameless as another trust fund baby former PM Boris Johnson. How anyone believes they deserve to stay in role after f@cking things up time and again is beyond me. He needs to be resign or be removed. Just like Boris I imagine the pr!ck will need to be removed.

Stas20, well done on emailing Camarco and getting the description changed. I also noticed the 18kboepd, which goes to show just how 'on it' Camarco happen to be. Very disappointing from mgt as well to not have these things accurate at every touch-point. Out of interest do you know if they've updated the description everywhere?

Mgt and our PR company really need to do better with such things. Very amateurish, especially given Majid in every interview over the past couple of years has spoken about how under-valued we happen to be. I agree with Isdeer that production increases aren't shifting the needle. This could be that no-one really knows about it due to woeful PR. Or it could be that investors don't care so much about production increases, they care about sp value and income increases in this market. Focusing on increasing production is 'jam tomorrow', and mgt need to rebalance things to 'jam today and jam tomorrow' for investors. Right now I'd prefer a bid comes in for the company. And to be honest I'm quite confident another player could pick us up for 35p right now, which would still be less than the average NOI multiple of or Canadian peers. If Majid doesn't want a derisory offer to land he needs to start thinking a little more about value creation. I'd most certainly prefer to have the share price in the 30's and receive a stronger dividend each month than taking an offer at 35p. But if given the choice between us languishing in the 20's and having to listen to him every couple of months talk about us being under-valued then I'd go for a buy-out. I'm quite sure some of IIs would go for 35p as well. One offloaded 20m shares in the high 20's a few months ago. They would have happily taken 35p. Majid needs to get on top of this. SP is an absolute joke compared to our peers, and it's part of his job to correct that value gap. If he was bonused on the sp value I'm quite sure he'd be doing things differently right now. AIMHO GLA

Hilarious Stas