Member Info for G_G_G

Here's the link I use Stas.

https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices

Reckon the OPEC oil supply increase is a non-starter after what just happened to oil prices. I also don't believe they're even considering it. The news is so f@cking manipulated these days that some nameless person in OPEC can be quoted and the poo drops 5%. The whole thing is played by banks and funds who have the media in their back pocket.

I also can't see the Saudis going for an increase and $75-80 when they could keep things the same and go for $90-100. There's also the fact that China is locking down and likely to go further than pull-back. And there's a global recession tidal wave on the horizon. Anyway, I think it was all lies and some greasy bankers made a killing on the back of 'fake news'. We'll see a bounce in the next few days. Question is whether i3e will bounce....?

Majid needs to up the dividend. The whole way of taking out capex then applying % fcf is bull****. He's driven production this year and can still increase it further next year. But he also needs to add another 20-25% to the current divi payments. We're talking just £5m here. We'll find out soon enough I suppose. GLA

Correct Xenor. Labor have got some f@cked ideas as well. People will be calling the 2020's the lost decade for the UK. It's going to be an unmitigated disaster here.

My hatred for this Tory party and what they've done to divide society and tank the economy really knows no bounds. They're turning us into the poor man of Europe. Smaller economy than pre-pandemic levels. Far less in-bound investment. Lower growth versus all G20 economies except for Russia. Far higher taxes. Public services falling over. And then there's the drain of Brexit, which sadly won't be fixed because the government believes we can't right the wrong that was created by lying politicians. There isn't a single measurable 'benefit of Brexit' on the economy. But there's a long list of economic drawbacks. No doubt deluded Brexiteers will still be saying 'at least we have our freedom' when the economy is falling apart over the coming years. I note the CBI is now pleading for more immigration. You couldn't make it up.

One thing's for sure is this share is going to have many ups and downs over the next 2 months. But I would say the biggest swings will be upwards versus downwards, as we move back toward the mid to high 300s.

Any day that has a surplus of buys v sells will obviously move the needle upwards. And I think this will happen more in the coming weeks as poo and gas move in an upward trajectory over the next 3 months. Reasons for this are obvious. The war isn't going to end. Supply is tight. We're moving to high seasonality for gas. Oil ban for Russia. And reduced OPEC production starting to kick in. We've had the last bit of fun for commodity traders before they start to let the price move toward market fundamentals.

But the reason why we'll see greater spikes upwards is because of the consistent share buy-backs. It's very easy to see the company is committed to 500k in buys every day for the moment. So any sellers / shorters need to not only contend with commodity prices starting to improve, but also the weight of +£1.5m in buying every day.

In summary, when commodity prices flip in the coming weeks and everyone recognizes this will be the case for the next few months then more money will enter here, plus sellers / shorters will close and become buyers, plus £1.5m is buy-backs. Easy to see this is at / near the bottom and we're going to be pushing in a choppy upward direction until mid to high 300's in the coming 2 months. And at the end of this time we'll have Q4 results that will show a significant reduction in debt and dividend / buy-back announcement.

Pain in the @ss at the moment being invested here. This government are pathetic who have become more like the Labor party every day in how they've managed the economy. Hilarious to think they're the party of low taxes who are business friendly.

Not hard to see which banks are short versus long.

Oil, the only decent comparison can be made to ENQ given their size, debt level, and the fact their production is mainly in the UK so have been f@cked by the government just like us. All other companies aren't great comparisons. Ithaca and SQZ could also be compared. But of course all will differ in various ways, such as the amount of cash SQZ has on hand, or the development tax relief for Ithaca, or the very large tax pool that ENQ have available. HBR has lots of strengths, but perhaps the biggest weakness is it doesn't have a tax pool and has limited options for writing off a lot of its profits. Something however I'm unsure about is whether they can get tax relief on their hedges. If this is possible then it means there's a lot of hidden value in our balance sheet. Appreciate a learned poster clearing this up if possible.

Also, the buy-backs only really start to work when sellers and shorters hit their exhaustion point. Given the undeniable fundamentals of the company, and the recent selling into the market, I believe we're close to this level. And thankfully the company has $95m left to spend on buying up any shares being dropped into the market. It will bounce just like last time. From what level is the big question. Worst case scenario it will hit 298p before the sellers / shorters flip their position.

Worth keeping in mind there's $95m in share buy-backs to support the sp over the next month. And most who were going to sell have done so in the past few days and today. Sadly for ITH, ENQ etc they don't have this sort of cash available to support them. So I think they have further to drop before a re-bound They also have more debt than HBR at this point, and far less production. On a macro level the general market has been shaky this week. Oil is off 5 % the past week. And we've had one of the stupendously idiotic decisions dropped on the industry in its history alongside all the rumors from the weekend telling us this might happen. This will bounce back. My guess is next week as the dust settles and brokers are able to assess what everything means for the company moving forward. Sellers will be cleared and buyers will return once they realize the bottom has been found. AIMHO GLA

They haven't killed the 91% tax relief, which does provide some direction for HBR in terms of mergers and acquisitions i.e. SQZ, ITH and ENQ. By going after ITH and ENQ we get 50% more reserves plus associated tax relief to exploit. There is a debt level as well, but our cash position by end of next year from HBR production, even with the extra WFT, would wipe this out. They could also look to move production o/s with TLW. Issue of course with TLW is the debt burden, which makes it a far riskier proposition than a company like ITH or ENQ.

Bottom line HBR will comfortably exceed $1.5bn fcf in 2023 with commodity prices staying at / near these levels. Yes we have a higher tax rate in 2023, but we also have oil hedges lapsing. Hence the total 2022 v 2023 fcf difference will be minimal, and certainly not more than $500m incremental taxes. Simple thing for people to ask themselves is whether $2-2.5m fcf between Q4 2022 ($500m fcf) and end of 2023 (+$1.5bn fcf) at current commodity prices makes this company worth $3.25bn mcap? So by the end of next year we will have paid down all debt and still have comfortably over $1bn in cash reserves. And people think this company is over-valued? Once the headlines die down and the numbers are crunched the market will wake up and realise it's under-valued. And the company will still be buying £1.5-2m worth of shares every day between now and mid January. I think we'll be back to £4 in the coming weeks. Not sure how much further we will get without some guidance or good news from mgt, but we're certainly worth more than USD$3.25bn.

Smartie you're going to be wrong on this one. The only thing you're right about is the market is digesting the news. Bottom line numbers for the company will still be very strong. The market hates uncertainty. Now we have certainty the market can go about crunching numbers and working out that worst case scenario at current commodity prices we're throwing off $1.5-2bn in fcf in 2023. And that doesn't take into account the $500m fcf we'll make this quarter. That's debt re-paid and an extra $1bn to spend in a little over a year. The following year hedges lapse. Now f@ck off.

Company needs to increase buying to £2-2.5m per day until Xmas. This will give them time to announce the expected impact of the WF tax increase and their plans for 2023. These numbers will overall be positive for the company and our outlook, but until we get them the market will be scratching their heads trying to work out where we stand. Good thing is the WF tax increase starts next year. We'll get to pay off another $300-400m from our debts. And still have some spare for dividends. I'm expecting a lot of news from the company over the next 4 weeks. Value is still £5 with current commodity pricing. Just needs a +ve company announcement to get us there.

Government are useless f@cking c@nts as well. Funny how they haven't closed the tax loopholes that have allowed Alphabet, Meta, Amazon etc to doge paying their taxes. Those three companies alone have side-stepped £3-5bn per year over the past decade by avoiding paying taxes in the countries they're making money. It's basically taking money out of the economy and put nothing back. Funny how there was no windfall tax on these companies as they boomed during the pandemic. Funny how they tax people earning over £150k but don't go after the offshore trusts and tax loopholes for the ultra wealthy. Funny how they haven't admitted that Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster on every economic metric and caused us to be 5% behind in GDP growth versus the EU average, especially when keeping in mind the 'promised growth' that would come from Brexit. They simply defied every noteworthy economist and BoE views. For reference that's over £15bn in lost GDP every year since Brexit. Funny how they don't go after f@cking pensioners who put nothing into the economy but get 10% increase whilst workers are lucky to get 5%. The same workers that pay for pensioner benefits including the biggest drain on public spending in healthcare. A benefit that's absolutely abused by the laziest of pensioners in this country. All of these things alone would close the funding gap. Instead they go after workers and energy companies that have been f@cked every which way for the past decade and only now get the cyclical boom to pay off their debts. Over 70% of Nth Sea development costs come from smaller UK based firms so they've f@cked their home industry and f@cked their energy security forever. All for a few votes. Pensioners vote for whoever looks after them best. And taxing energy firms sounds good to everyone as well. They're only concerned about soundbites to get themselves re-elected. All to be in power. All as bad as Brexit Boris, the greatest liar in the history of UK politics.

There it is. I was hoping for just 30% as it would mean we'd e back at £4.20-£4.50 range quick smart. Reckon we will get back to the high 3's now (he says). Time for mgt to start buy-backs in earnest now.

Personally I wouldn't go with middle class little Englanders, the reality of who voted for Brexit are uneducated white men and uneducated older folks. So working class, and not too bright. It's how they're so easily conned. Funny how they'll never accept it though. Literally 'stupid pride'.

Well said NasiRul. Sadly the people who were suffering the most post GFC are the ones who got conned into believing all the Brexit lies. Populist politicians spouting lies to those who have been 'left behind' just to get front bench positions and a tilt at PM. Boris used to be an ardent 'Remainer' but swapped sides just so he wouldn't have to sit on the back bench. Those who got conned are sadly now the ones struggling to pay bills and and will soon be out of work as the BoE pushed interest and unemployment rates to bring down inflation. If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.

Pearls, you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You're regurgitating the 'free to trade with the world' horse**** from Boris and his merry band of pathological liars. There's not a single shred of evidence to what you're asserting, but we do sit only ahead of Russia when it comes to G20 economic growth. We've also struck no free trade deals of note. In the papers today Rishi has admitted the US deal much vaunted by Boris is 'on hold'. So much for being 'front of the line'. The Australian deal is poor, and has been admitted as such in recent news articles - refer Times today. And everything else is literally taking the EU trade deal and putting the UK in its place. So those trade deals are no different to what was already existing as part of the EU. There's hardly anything that has been done in trade deals in 6 years. And certainly nothing new. The UK is however the only G20 nation with an economy smaller than pre-Pandemic. And pretty much every decent publication from The Economist to the FT have proven the immense damage done to the economy. Go to Youtube and watch some of their documentaries on the unmitigated disaster that is Brexit. In other words you've got no data, facts or figures to support your views. Just an uninformed and misplaced opinion.

As for Covid and Russia, well that's the excuse used by every bull****artist Brexiteer politician and every m@ron than believes their lies. Most of the G20 had the same issues and yet they're not in the same position. Brexit has been measured and even Hunt has said it's f@cked the economy. Brexiteers are fast running out of reasons to hide behind as the world has opened up and we can measure and account for everything nowadays. Go and read a little and for god's sake look at some of those data points.

It's not a market aberration. If we were listed in the US the sp would be more than double the current level. The reason we're f@cked is because the government has f@cked the economy. And they're looking at any business that's doing well and can help secure votes to bail out their incompetence. The issue of course is the Labor party will do the same if not worse. Both sides of parliament chasing votes rather than looking at the reasons why the economy has cratered versus other G20 nations suffering from the same energy crisis. The main reason of course is Brexit. The UK is the only G20 member that has an economy smaller than what it was before the pandemic. The UK economy is just over 3.5% bigger than pre-Brexit. That's over a period of 6 years!!! Meanwhile the EU is roughly 8.5% bigger. That's an immense amount of tax receipts that aren't coming into the treasury for the entire 6 years. It would also largely fill the black hole that was recently made worse by an unnecessary and wholeheartedly ret@rded mini-budget. Instead of acknowledging Brexit as one of the primary reasons for our malaise, both parties are equally gutless in side-stepping the issue. Brexiteers have somehow taken government hostage in much the same way as MAGA c@nts have taken over the conservatives of the US. Interesting the same demographics voted for Brexit as Trump in both elections i.e. the uneducated. Suppose it makes it easier to con them into believing all the lies that have come from both populist conservative parties. Issue is Labor haven't the balls to call another referendum as well. But they do have the balls to stop Scotland from leaving the UK. Let's hope it's just 30%!!!!! and 2 extra years of WF taxes to help make up for the governments shortcomings over the past 6 years.

Why show 2023 production when we don't know the tax on that production? The tax could potentially make a difference on how much we produce (and how much the government gets paid).

Government will have completely f@cked this company and the whole industry if they increase taxes to 35% and extend for another two years. That's why Shell and BP are up and we're down - the government hasn't found a way to to effectively tax super-major Nth Sea production.

Nice one Gusto.

It might make a few more people email the company though Hotchip. The more investors email the company the more likely we are to get a divi reward. To be honest I'm hoping for a t/o offer in the near future.

Agree Ithaca and Serica are good Nth Sea options to take advantage of tax breaks. Alternative is taking on a much bigger / riskier acquisition with TLW and giving two fingers to the government. I half want them to do this out of spite for the clowns in power. ENQ also has a significant amount of reserves in the Nth Sea, decent production, and far lower debt levels. They will have paid down their debt by H1 2024 so not the same drain / risk to the balance sheet as TLW. Still in the Nth Sea though. It's really a matter of trying to work out the least painful way of getting smashed.