Member Info for G_G_G

DM, no-one is saying the fall is caused by a lack of PR. We're saying the fall wouldn't be as great if we had some decent PR. Commodity prices have dropped by 25%. We've missed NOI guidance by a solid margin twice in a short period. We had a duster in the Nth Sea. Graham has left. These are reasons driving the sp downward. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be far higher. We've been under-valued based on fundamentals before all these things happened. And that's because people don't know our story. If mgt can deliver some good news, and many investors hear about it, the sp will start to progress from this level. It's really that simple.

Yes you can DM. You're just masquerading as someone who knows things.

Norma, just in case you haven't worked it out, the twattery is how one can explain the disconnect between 'fundamental value' and 'actual value'. And the 'twattery' is perhaps the most important scientific evidence available to businesses in their quest for growth. That of course requires uninformed senior ****s holding ExCo positions to actually know such things and not relying on 'theories', 'hypotheses', or even worse their opinion, to make important business decisions.

Or perhaps you'd like to explain the consistent disconnect in fundamental value for actual value for the past couple of years here...? Seriously, I'd love to hear your views.

DM you've got no idea if you think that a company that isn't on the vast majority of potential investor's radars isn't being dragged down by the fact it's unknown. The link to brand growth / marketing can be found in the evidence provided by the Ehrenberg Bass institute. It requires being able to join a few dots so you may struggle, but things such as 'double jeopardy law' apply to i3e. The 'laws' (there's a few of them) are based on a Dirichlet Process Model, which is effectively a complicated probability model. The 'probability' comes into play when you're looking at 'known v unknowns'. In other words brands (or companies in our case) will be smaller if they're relatively unknown versus their competitors. That's a 'law' supporting my views versus your 'hypothesis'. It wouldn't surprise me if you don't understand the difference between a scientific law versus hypothesis, but it's worth you reading up on the difference between the two as you'll be a lot smarter for it. And because you found i3e means f'all. You're one little fish, and brands (companies) grow when many fish find them (and buy them).

Oh and where is the 2023 dividend and development plan? The on-going tardiness where they release reports and plans on average after our competitors again speaks to them not really giving a f@ck about their investors. If they do a release after Xmas (or just before-hand) with shareholder returns remaining static and pumping it all into production then I'm out. Our production has grown hugely the past year but no-one knows about it because Majid doesn't care to update the market regularly on our development successes. Instead we hear about the good news with hugely bad news like NOI misses. It's like presenting the market bunch of wonderful small things wrapped in ****. All they see is the ****. Majid's either clueless on market / investor psychology, or he just doesn't care. Due to him being an incredibly smart guy, combined with a lack of PR, I'm going with the latter.

SP has become nothing short of a joke. Majid needs to rebalance his focus to increasing shareholder returns. What the company has mentioned previously (up to 40% fcf) pretty much hits the nail imo. By actually returning this amount to shareholders they can increase our income significantly, plus continue to increase production if commodity prices stay at this level. I would rather he pumps the whole 40% into dividends so I get a guaranteed return, but to be honest it's more about him doing things to drive the sp. He has done some brilliant things, but his greatest on-going failure is his lack of focus on driving the sp, and by extension his disregard for generating PR on the back of doing things that drive the share price. I've heard of all sorts of ****ty AIM companies because they do an incredible job at PR. Imagine if Majid and his mgt team got out there to tell everyone about their successes. We're debt free. We're generating $175m in NOI and growing production. We're paying an 8% yield at the current sp. We've got acreage worth double the current mcap in a sale. And vast, low cost, fast payback future development opportunities. Wtf is Majid doing to tell investors about this...? In marketing circles this is called 'mental availability' and alongside 'physical availability' they are the two things that drive brand growth. Now our 'physical availability' is very good due to us being listed (able to be purchased) in both UK and Canada. But it doesn't matter if investors can buy you on both sides of the pond if no-one knows about who you are, and what you offer. The probability of being bought is zero if they've never heard of you. And Majid needs to change this probability. It's a f@ckng joke that a company with our fundamentals isn't well known across AIM. And the fact the guy from **********, who is a professional investing commentator, hasn't even heard of us is pathetic. Majid should see us being the most under-valued O&G company in Canada as evidence of his complete failure in getting us on radars. He needs to pull his finger out in this regard. If he does this and gets us back to 30p (where we should be), and increases our returns, then he gets my vote for CEO of the year.

Agree Pete. We won't get the year-end production update until mid-January at the earliest, which would be after the next dividend payment (providing they stick with monthly dividends).

Pretty disappointed we haven't heard yet but as others have pointed out the last annual guidance was delivered in the last week before Xmas. I just hope that Majid makes an effort to reward shareholders. I've been quite happy with pretty much all their calls recently but they do need to rebalance their focus on driving production with rewarding shareholders. Mgt have been very good at rewarding themselves over the years so now it's time they do the same for their investors. Ryan Heath picked up USD$2m worth of shares and options for simply doing his job. Majid even more. So I'd like to see some of the generosity they extend to themselves extended to us in 2023. Would certainly make a nice Xmas gift. AIMHO GLA

Nice one Stas on the divi find. Supports what I was saying about the %fcf pay-out can always be changed. And it appears the company has already stated that in their guidance.

HotChip, you missed my point about getting a higher income regardless of macro. If poo drops back to $50-60 the sp will tank either way. Having a good yield will provide stronger base under the sp, but having an extra £5m on the books will do f'all. And people need to stop talking of 'cutting the dividend later'. A guaranteed divi is just that. Guaranteed for 12 months. And if they need to cut it in 2024 due to a O&G crash then so be it. Resource companies do it all the time in cyclical booms and busts. Key as an investor is to invest before the boom and sell before the bust. That's on us and not mgt. They can't control future prices. But they can control shareholder returns and the sp. Divi increase is a guaranteed greater income. Simple, definitive win.

Tony / Stas agree with your last posts.

As for poo, does anyone seriously think that OPEC will allow it to drop below $70 for any period of time? Russia will start losing production next year due to lack of O&G infrastructure expansion from sanctions. China re-opening will consume more oil than now, even if there's a global recession. Interest rates will peak mid next year. OPEC has learnt from the pandemic how to manipulate oil prices to keep them higher. As has Russia for that matter. Finally the US has stated it will start buying back oil for their strategic reserve at $70, effectively putting a floor under WTI. So imo use $70 as your worst case rate for 2023.

HotChip, some upward movement in the monthly dividend payment will give us all a greater income at the very least. I'm also betting it will give the sp a bump as well given it's absolutely diabolical at the moment. I personally believe many on the sidelines could be waiting on the guaranteed 2023 divi announcement before committing. The 2022 NOI number being re-affirmed is also likely to be something investors on the sidelines are wanting to see. And of course there's a **** ton of investors who will only discover i3e if they make a solid announcement around the 2022 NOI / 2023 dividend / 2023 development plans & outlook.

Main point being , dividend increase = guaranteed income increase, regardless of what else is happening (good or bad) at a macro level. And it will make holding here a lot easier even in worse times, which means we're more likely to maintain a higher sp level than now should the macro worsen. AIMHO GLA

Sounds like everyone wants a Sividend hike.

Great to see Cannacord jumping on the bandwagon. If they provide more reasons to invest here via greater shareholder returns then we can expect further analyst coverage. Hopefully Monday will be the start of the snowball rolling.

Jesus I can't wait for the MONTHLY 'Sividend' to be announced. At least it will end the subject of this thread. Funny it's still going.

I'm just hoping Majid doesn't try to pull a swifty by leaving the announcement until 24th December and filling it with bad news e.g. NOI miss (again), and no change to shareholder returns. Surely he's not so stupid as to do such a thing. The sp would crater into the teens. You never know though. He ploughed all the extra 2022 cash into development, and he has missed the NOI estimates by some distance twice now. Hopefully Monday rns with NOI re-affirmed, and a decent (+15%) monthly dividend payment over 12 MONTHS in 2023. GLA

Source run the numbers on a little 10% buy-back and there's no way you can do that and become a 'behemoth' in any of those time horizons you mention. There simply isn't enough money to pay a reasonable dividend and increase production as well. And I'd rather take the guaranteed income and have the security of more production than a buy-back that in theory should do things, but in reality does f'all. There's no point doing something 'permanent' when it does nothing for shareholder wealth, except for those who sell down in the short time frame when the company is buying their own stock. And this is coming from a lth who would prefer to stay a lth, but won't do so if mgt waste cash on buy-backs rather than boosting production and my monthly income.

Tony you know those numbers are skewed from pumping $100m into development this year. And yes I want a greater dividend. They put $100m into development this year and $20m into dividend payments. It's simply about rebalancing income and development in 2023 so both are moving forward. And everyone talking about the risk of 'having to cut the divi in future' ignore the fact that's the reality for any company that operates in a cyclical environment. At least if they boost the divi for 2023 we'll still be pumping out +25kboepd at year end, and have been paid an inflation busting yield. If 2024 looks shaky they will need to adjust their payments and development program, just like every other company would need to. For now it looks quite comfortable for them to boost our divi by 15-25% and increase production from the levels we're now at. Keep in mind we're now producing at levels they estimated to reach late 2023 thanks to the $100m investment. I was fine with this decision then (and still now) providing they are going to give some of that investment back to us in 2023 via increased income.

Tony, you've just flipped your script. You were saying the other day we can't afford to hike the divi 50% (£30m) and maintain production (£30m), but now you're saying we can spend £30m on a 10% buy-back...? So how much production and dividends to be paid next year if we continue to use your £60m number when calculating at today's O&G prices? And no I don't think we're a cash printing machine, plus our net cash position is low (you also like to remind people of our debt commitments), and we have real production potential where £30m of buy-backs would be better spent producing an extra 3kboepd. Or paying me a lot more income. And preferably both.

As for the dividend, it obviously doesn't help if no-one other than existing shareholders know about us, let alone our yield. But why not go back to when they first announced the dividend on the 3rd of February and look at the sp response. In recent months we've had 2 x missed NOI announcements, 1 x duster, Graham leaving, plus commodity prices weakening in-line with the wider macro environment. So I'd say they've had quite a detrimental affect on the sp and the divi yield has been the one saving grace. Meanwhile Majid has done nothing to get us on investor radars and soften the blows since delivering bad news on all those occasions.

The one other thing I'd say is that Majid's greatest continuing failure is his complete disregard for PR. No-one knows of us. The interviewer the other day was amazed by our fundamentals and that he'd never heard of us. I'd seen the interviewer a few times before and I'd say he's better known by lse investors than our company. Majid needs to do interviews on Proactive, lse, **********, with fat b@stard and so on. And then he should put a few grand behind pushing the interviews on these sites, like what you can see in the left of screen here. It's pretty useless doing all these good things if well-versed industry experts haven't even heard of you. Majid gets mostly straight A's from me on his key responsibilities the past year or two, but on this very important part of his job he gets D-.

Tony my previous post mentions buy-backs make sense when a company has a lot of cash and/or is generating a lot of it, is under-valued, and has limited growth opportunities. I gave SQZ as an example that fits this criteria at the moment. The only criteria we meet out of those three are being under-valued, which can be changed by doing things to boost value, such as upping the dividend and increasing production. And the whole conversation is somewhat pointless if you believe in divis and production growth over buy-backs, not to mention you know at current commodity prices we can't buy-back 10% without decreasing the divi or production (or both).

It's a worst case scenario Pete, which is why current prices are being used. I too think prices will be higher next year, but it's always better to plan for the worst and be pleasantly surprised by the upside. Either way if prices are 15% higher than now for 2023 (my estimate) then you can have a 25% divi bump and not just maintain, but grow production by circa 2kboepd. Still better than doing a buy-back as you solidly grow income, plus grow production whilst proving up more reserves. Both make us more attractive to a buyer, and would mean we command more if a bid should land.

Also, the SPR will simply put a floor under WTI at $70. I don't think it will be a source of growth as it accounts for less than 0.5% of global daily usage to re-fill. And China completely opening up it's economy in the next 12 months I'd say is less likely than a global recession which would destroy 2-3mbopd in demand.

But let's say poo goes back up to $100. What does that mean for inflation? Then what does that mean for interest rates? Then what does that mean for a recession? Then what does that mean for oil? The best scenario is poo stays between $75-85. This level should mean a shallow recession that is drawn out, and will allow interest rates to slowly bring down inflation. I personally think poo going back to $100 levels will require at least 1-2m production cut from OPEC and the war to last until end 2024. Russia production levels will then start to decline due to a lack of western equipment and technology to develop new fields to replace decline rates. In this scenario the world economy gets crashed, which isn't good for oil. Hence why OPEC will go for a range ($75-90) that keeps demand relatively strong by historical standards, and makes them a **** ton of money, but doesn't cause almighty demand destruction. At least that's my thinking.

Source, you can't grow into a behemoth by putting money into buy-backs because that money comes out of production. See my earlier posts on cost and benefits. And the sp won't increase because large holders like me will sell into the buy-back as I believe it's a very poor use of cash. Others will do the same. Clearly you haven't read or don't understand my position on when to use funds for buy-backs. It's in an earlier post and doesn't apply to i3e. And for me to sell it will require such a poor use of cash as buy-backs. But if they increase my divi substantially and look to hold / increase production at today's low commodity prices then I'll be staying put.

As for lth's I don't remember seeing you here the past few years...? Or are you one of those silent shareholders who just decided to post something...? Point being it's a bit rich branding a lth like myself as impatient if you've just arrived. As for broker notes, they're rarely worth the paper they're written on. Tony has a better grip on our financials and forecasts. I'd argue he could do a better job than our CFO at the moment as well. And yes selling out for 35p in today's environment is a good idea. And I'm quite certain if a bid lands at that level it will pass as most IIs will go for it as well. So I'm hoping for a divi increase and more drilling whilst I wait for the t/o offer to land.

Panama that won't work, here's why:

- 5% buy-back = £15m
- 10% divi bump = £22m
- Maintain production @ 24.5kboepd = £30m
- Grow production by 10% = £30m (add another £30m for 20%).

On the low side of 5% BB, +10% Divi, and +10% production = £107m. At today's commodity prices we're generating around £60m fcf. Clearly those numbers don't square. The point of the rather civil debates on this board is how one could / should allocate £60m fcf in 2023 (for the low case) in order to generate the best returns (sp value + income) for shareholders.

Bunkatron, completely agree with your last 2 posts.