Member Info for G_G_G

Not yet but reckon those in agreement should send an email. I'll do the same.

On the IIs selling, I'm hoping it's the end of PM given the round number they're holding now is 9.999%. No idea about Amati who appear to have been the biggest seller it his last round at 1.45% of total float. Unfortunately they're not sitting at any discernible level that would suggest they could be finished. Reckon we'll know when the sp moves up to the mid-high 20's on no news. I still think the company should speak with these IIs and ascertain if they're still wanting to sell down. If so then arranging another buyer (preferably an II / fund), or better still doing the equivalent of a small buy-back off them would create some +ve momentum. The buy-back (providing under $10m) and cancelling the shares would be a brilliant way to completely reverse what's happening. And it would give us a small divi boost. Either way it's not too bad to be reinvesting at these levels. AIMHO GLA

Dartron, I get your theory but any company going ex-divi for 5% loses that value pretty much instantly that day. I think it's more about whether you believe there's 10% or more value that can be found elsewhere. I've tried trading a couple of times and haven't gone anywhere. I think one course of action for the bod is to perhaps reach out to these IIs and try to arrange an off-market sale to another II or HNWI. Maybe try to get Nuttall's fund on-board for 5% or so. Either that or put aside $10m and buy the shares off them. Perhaps they have adjusted their portfolios and that's the end of it. Or perhaps they're pushing down the sp for other reasons. Who knows. It's a shame as I genuinely thought we'd be pushing to 30p on the back of the dividend announcement, and instead we have f@cking IIs offloading. I'd love to see a bid land in the next month or two so these fund managers get to see how much money they've missed out on due to being pr@ts.

Yeah he is a bit of a salesman, but then again that's probably what we need given Majid puts people to sleep.

Indeed. Nice find Stas. Makes you realize that we're more than likely on a couple of radars just from an acreage standpoint, let alone having a lovely +22kboepd existing production profile. I won't be surprised if a bid lands for us sometime in the next 6 months if we remain at these crazy multiples. Surely someone would throw 35p our way. I'm certainly hoping someone will.

Interesting no TR1. Some very big trades going through on Friday.

Same here for Barclays. They normally pay after close on Friday. I'm with them because my wife and I have about 10 accounts with them so easier to manage everything in one place. They're f@cking annoying though.

Yep not a small number of shares that's for sure. It's around 0.75% of the company in a few trades. Surely a TR1 next week and hopefully the anchor chain can be lifted.

Agree Stas. Anything above WTI$85 as an average for the year would be wonderful. Also means if we drill any debt funded oil wells they will payback in lightning quick time :) Looking forward to some positive news here to remind everyone of the value (seemingly hidden) in this company. Have a great weekend all.

Spike, if they were to add $50m of debt I'd hardly call that a CAPEX blowout. People are so scared of a debt. Debt fuels growth. It's also why companies that got lucky on timing their debt have been able to pay it off so quickly in 12-18 months and now huge dividends. Debt is bad when you take on too much. If we were making $50m NOI, rather than $150m then I'd be saying take out less than $50m, but still do it. We'd be making +$200m NOI in 2024 with this year's development budget plus another $50m pointed at oil, and poo at $75. The dividend, production increase, plus the greater booked reserves from opening up more plays, would make us far, far more valuable. And to not do it now when you know we have at least 24 months of oil +$70 would be completely missing a trick.

And it would actually be the least risky thing to do when it comes to growth. The wells would be paid off in 9 months and every month beyond is pure bottom line. I personally think it's crazy not to take on debt when you know poo is going to be averaging +$70 for the next year or two. Russian isn't going to be allowed back. China will have gotten over Covid waves 1 and 2 within the next year and will be motoring. OPEC have worked out how to keep oil at their sweet spot ($80). And the SPR needs 1% of all oil production for a year to re-fill its strategic reserves. The debt could be paid without any issues as could the current dividend in less than a year.

There's companies booking hundreds of millions and billions of debt to develop offshore fields that are full of risk. Our development risk is minimal. We have known production profiles. We have the infrastructure. And unlike offshore we don't have years of red tape and development before first oil. That sort of debt is risky because no-one has a crystal ball for 5 years time. But looking 2 years ahead isn't difficult at all given the current macro climate. Russian oil isn't coming back to the west anytime soon. And Russian production will start to diminish due to a lack of western technology and know-how. In 2 years they'll be producing a million barrels per day less. Now is the time for on-shore to take out MANAGEABLE debt (i.e. 0.5x EBITDA). AIMHO GLA

Great post Nomadic. Fwiw I think the weakness in gas and the stink of the Nth Sea has created our issues. And although the last PR push was welcomed, it's something that needs to be chipped away at constantly.

As for potential catalysts. The main one is an asset sale or bid for the company. Another way to get some movement is to invest more where you have guaranteed paybacks. I'm a huge fan of debt in current circumstances i.e. when you have relatively known areas with quick pay-backs at WTI$75, which is likely the poo base for the next couple of years. We have a huge amount of acreage that can be opened up, and with each well it only adds value to that acreage and the company. It will also mean we strengthen our production mix and revenue base. The dividend is great and will keep people invested. It's now about what will attract more investors and short of some asset sales I think it has to be pushing hard at production. I think a Clearwater f/o would also provide us with a boost. And if we utilised some debt then we could build value quite quickly.

Either way I think the bod have done a stellar job on getting the company on a strong footing. It's just about finding some value catalysts now. I know debt is something that many on here fear, but when you're throwing it at relatively sure things then it's definitely your friend. AIMHO GLA

Sorry Tony I thought they were companies being acquired and not acreage, so forget the previous questions.

Equally Tony one could expect it to be in the headlines if they were in a net cash position, which is unlikely as most producers we know are still carrying debt. I'm only asking as it's the only thing I can think of that could explain the value disconnect per producing boe between the two deals.

The ex-divi for March will be announced next week. The ex-divi dates are normally mid-month and paid first half of the following month.

I'm also interested to see if anything happens to the sp as we get our divis paid each month. There's a good extra chunk of cash being paid out monthly and I'm wondering whether PI reinvestment will slowly start to raise the base back to the mid 20's. Oil looking good for another run. Couple more months and China will be motoring again.

Hi guys, just repeating my earlier post. Do any of you know whether Kaybob / Ridgeback had any debt before they were acquired?

Tony, thanks for your research on Saturn Oil & Crescent Point transactions. Out of interest, do you know whether there was any debt taken on with the acquisitions? It may help to explain the large variance in value.

All fine with me 3lbs. I've got nearly £16k coming my way over the next 3 weeks so fine to pick up another 70k shares and continue doing so all year if necessary. And if we stay down here for too long then I think the chances of a 40p t/o will simply grow. This of course is my preferred option for this investment, but happy to be paid my divi each month in the meantime. GLA

Hereshopin still no point I see other than trying to play the man rather than the ball. Also, I was prophetic enough to buy the bottom here and still make a profit. And if it weren't the WFT I would have made even more in HBR as I was in profit there until the government f@cked their O&G industry. So I'd say more prophetic than most. But let's see where the sp sits in a month or two and we can take this up again.

2phevs I'm not sure I'm following your last post. If you're saying that THG could be a Qatari t/o target then I fully agree. I'd say it's a decent chance of happening in H2 if the sp is around this level and why I'd come back with a bigger chunk of cash and be less impatient if the sp drops back to the low 40's. If it doesn't then no harm. There's plenty of commodity companies that are highly profitable and paying dividends up to 10% for me to sit calmly in for the next few months. But the big money will normally be made in these 'swing' companies that have been smashed, but sit on assets that cost £billions. THG is one of the leaders in this pack. It's just the timing that makes the difference (and of course patience as Hereshopin has pointed out). GLA

Hosai, adjusted EBITDA and being cash neutral are different things. They still have massive capital investment annually, a tough macro environment, net debt position, and are getting into a habit of missing guidance by significant margins almost every quarter. There's some facts for you.