Member Info for G_G_G

Top 5 volume day for the past 3 months. Not sure why, but always good to see a bit more action. Hopefully we can start a climb to a more reasonable value versus peers. To think that $150m NOI is the 2023 downside and we're valued at USD$280m is bonkers. And that's for a debt free company, with a steadily increasing 23kboepd production profile, blue-sky land holdings, safe jurisdiction, reliable production rates, and paying an 11% dividend. Absolutely nuts. Already looking forward to my next dividend payment next Friday :) GLA

Thanks Stas. So even with CAD$2.6 for March we should still come in at CAD+$4.5 for Q1. And with WTI staying above $75 for the remainder of March we're likely to have an average of $77 for Q1. So a miss against forecast (WTI $80, AECO CAD $5), but a relatively small miss in the greater scheme of things. If WTI averages +$80 or the remainder of the year, as many experts seems to think, then I think we should comfortably break USD$150m NOI and perhaps even meet target of $160-170m. And that's without any cost savings, which they seem to be pretty good at meeting. So divi and Capex easily covered and then some.

As mentioned I'd like to see them take out a small amount of debt ($30m) to drill more oil rich wells. Oil is going to be the more supportive commodity this year, so I'd like to see them take advantage of it whilst the sun is shining. We should be able to add 2-3kbopd (oil) by year end and exit production of +27koepd. It will also mean we beat NOI targets, and have more to invest in 2024 Capex. We will also have even greater reserves end Q1 2024. I think H2 2024 is when they pivot back to gas. There will be the usual winter price increase exacerbated by Russian production decreasing. And more importantly there will be the West Coast LNG plant coming online in less than 12 months. All going well we could be +30kboepd in 2025 with supportive gas and oil prices. With this I'd expect us to be double the current sp in less than 2 years. And if you keep investing dividends over this period then it's a hell of a lot of money that can be made for those with patience. Getting quite carried away here now. AIMHO GLA

And besides, i3e are far too rubbish at PR to be paying anyone to promote the company :)

Louis the dividend is certain. It couldn't be more certain. No-one other than a f@cking h@lfwit would think otherwise.

The only thing people on here are trying to work out is how much money will be left over for drilling with current commodity price fluctuations. The company has forecast NOI at $160-167m with WTI $80 and AECO CD$4.50. This means there's a hell of a lot of money being thrown off even at current prices. To my mind we have a maximum NOI risk of circa $30m with average prices for WTI @ $75 and AECO @ CAD$3.50. This number would include budget savings of $7m in 2022. I believe it to be quite unlikely commodity prices will average these levels for the year given Q1 will be close to what was budgeted when including hedges. But one thing is for sure, this company will still be throwing off $130-137m NOI even if prices average current levels for the remainder of the year. So there is zero dividend risk. It's just a matter of how much money can be allocated to drilling wells.

Thanks Joe!

Thanks for the post hedge workings Tony. As you know I've always been quite +ve about their hedging program, it's just a shame they didn't hedge more of Q2/3 when prices went ballistic last year. Matters not. Fwiw I think we're likely to reach our average poo assumption (WTI$80) used to forecast NOI. Issue is the AECO price assumption (CAD$4.50). I think worst case scenario we're looking at CAD$3.50 for the year, which is a decent drop. Do you have an idea of the NOI ramifications if AECO averages $3.50?

Yes I saw the same headlines Stas. It's the long awaited re-start of the Chinese economy. Even if it only takes poo and gas back to WTI$90 & AECO$5 later this year then we should see a re-rate as it's likely to be a structural demand shift that will last a while. My guess is Q3 will be when prices climb to these levels i.e. when Europe starts to re-fill its gas storage and the Chinese economy is fully back online. Russian production should also have declined by a further 3-5% in this period. Meanwhile commodity prices have strengthened quite a bit in the past 48 hours and we haven't, which is incredibly frustrating and doesn't fill me with confidence that we'll see the sort of sp lift that others will when prices do eventually strengthen.

Parge, I don't want to kick off another debate around this topic, but I imagine you know the answer and what impact that would have had on our current sp. Even if we had taken 50% debt to fund the acquisitions we would be far higher than we are now. Having said that, we are where we are. And it's why I think mgt should take on debt again to fund oil rich wells. We know commodity prices will strengthen into Q3/4 so why not add circa $30m in debt to fund another 2-3kbopd (oil) this year. The wells will be paid off by Q1 next year and 2024 earnings growth will be close to guaranteed even if prices sit down here. The divi will also be protected and perhaps even grow. Plus we will have added reserves, and if strategic proved up / tested areas like Simonette for f/o partners to jump on-board at decent value to us.

Debt is your friend providing it's pointed at investments that you know will pay off and then some. Key is not to take on too much debt. So yes I wish they had financed the acquisitions partly through debt. But they can now fund earnings growth partly through debt, which imo would be wise in this market. Companies are being largely valued on earnings and not debt profile so best to push for an earnings increase in a supportive commodity price market. It actually makes the company more stable due to the increased production profile when prices start to go south, providing debt to earnings is minimal. It's also easier to obtain debt now with prices being higher, and before western banks and governments start closing up shop to the O&G industry when the war eventually ends. Anyway, something for my next email to mgt. Next divi payment on Friday and another 35k shares in my pile at current sp. AIMHO GLA

Rubbish sp action given the recent update and poo movement today. Does make one wonder what commodity price levels are going to get us back to +£300m mcap (+25p). I think we'll need a sustained push in poo to $90 and AECO back to CAD+$4 before we get back to this point. My money is on Q3 to reach these levels, assuming there's no t/o, asset sales or f/o prior to this date. At least it provides a reasonable amount of time for divi money to be reinvested. Time for me to switch off for a while now. GLA

Great, thanks Tony. I wasn't sure where I'd read the post referring to the NOI forecast. Your interpretation makes sense. I'm looking forward to the next updates. I can swallow a few more divi reinvestments near 20p if the expected surge in commodity prices happens in Autumn / Winter this year. Even better would be a merger / t/o in the coming months. Given our current numbers and low-cost blue-sky potential I'd be surprised if we're not on a few radars at the moment. AIMHO GLA

Fellas someone mentioned yesterday the company confirmed they are on track for their latest 2022 NOI forecast - has anyone seen this reported officially anywhere?

Regarding future production increases, one thing worth keeping in mind is that as we grow it requires more money to standstill i.e. to maintain production levels. So for us to get to 30kboepd we'll need to spending an increasing amount of Capex to generate incremental production. This of course doesn't mean we can't generate incremental revenue, even if production levels stay the same, as the 'mix' is all important (as some posters have pointed out). Personally I'd be look at adding some debt to our balance sheet and going after more oil rich areas in our portfolio that will also provide incremental reserves. With the payback timelines, even at WTI$75, it makes sense right now.

Tony, keep posting. You provide the most comprehensive breakdown of the business on this board, and often more than the company itself. Clearly it's also appreciated. Just try to ignore the clowns.

Also, someone mentioned mgt have re-iterated 2022 NOI guidance - where has this come from? Anyone?

Not much volume today unless there's going to be some more monster trades popping up end of day. Looking forward to the reserves upgrade end of March.

Also, someone mentioned mgt have re-iterated 2022 NOI guidance - where has this come from?

Rax, you are right to point out the macro environment. Having said this, it's a coin toss on what happens with inflation and how that will impact poo / gas. You need to keep in mind that consecutive rate rises haven't made too much a dent in prices to date. And supply isn't keeping up with demand for these commodities, which is likely to worse as Russian production continues to fall. Finally, in the unlikely scenario that prices depress further in light of current supply constraints, then OPEC will constrain their production and rebalance the market for poo. Gas is a different market and I don't see the ability of oligopolies like OPEC to influence this as much. Hence the move down in price as supply is currently able to meet demand and then some. Fwiw I think poo will remain above $70 all year and likely spike up to $90 at different times. As for gas, this will be weak until Europe starts re-filling capacity without the aid of Russian supply. This will start in Q3 and although prices are unlikely to reach the highs of last year, they will be significantly higher than they are now. It's a hell of a lot of alternate supply they need to get back 90-100% full and their main source is Nth America.

All in all a very good update. Mgt seemingly on top of all numbers. Production up. Costs down. Some gushers uncovered. Blue sky potential with FO, asset or company sales. The main issues facing us are of course lower commodity prices, and f@cking II selling. But, if we get another commodity price run as expected in Q3/4 then we will certainly be north of this sp. In the meantime we have another 4-5 divi payments to re-invest at these low prices and will benefit from value gains this Xmas. My 2023 Xmas target is 28p with no asset / company sale. Also, at this mcap I have no doubt we're a very tasty treat for a much bigger fish. In fact I think we're the perfect target for +US$1bn Nth American outfits to swallow as we'd provide material current and future production to companies of this size without putting too much pressure on their balance sheet, which are mostly quite strong now. If financed via share for share merger then I'd argue we're the best and safest growth opportunity in all of Canada. I'm expecting some good news in another 4 weeks, providing they don't delay it by another month. AIMHO GLA

Nice find Mini. Point to how much potential we have in the ground. It's how to get it to of the ground in the most efficient way that is the hard part and why I'm supportive of them taking out some debt whilst WTI is still high (by historical standards) and likely to stay that way for the next year or two. I really hope the Q4 results are being delayed for a good reason. Not wanting to sound negative but if mgt drop a disappointing rns just before close then I'll lose my ****. I hope they wouldn't do such a thing as it smacks of the worst kind of amateurism. If the news is bad then give it straight up. The market will punish you either way by the same amount. So let's hope for some good news on Monday. AIMHO GLA

Forgot to say that's once again some serious volume was reported yesterday in a few trades. There must be a TR1 around the corner given the number of days we've had trades of this size changing hands. And I'd say its unlikely to be any PIs dropping that sort of cash. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Tony. So we should expect them to hit their numbers in Q4, and probably a downgrade for 2023 NOI after Q1 results. I doubt gas will get off its @ss until Europe starts to re-fill in Q2/3 so expecting us to be able to reinvest around the 20p mark for a good 4-6 months. Fully expect us to be able to deliver the Capex guidance and dividend this year (and next) based on your numbers. Imo there's very little chance gas won't average CAD$2.50 for the year given China re-opening, Russian sanctions and inevitable production decrease, and Europe needing to re-fill storage solely from non-Russian sources. Providing WTI stays above $75 we should be fine.

As for the coverage, not to put a dampener on things but any investor would need to dig around to find i3e. And it's hardly the promised coverage or II investment we need to fix the yawning valuation gap. Hopefully they can find the time to talk about the Q4 numbers, providing they hit them of course.

As for the divi being cut, that's absolute nonsense. They've committed the funds and communicated as much. They also have the money and more to spare. Anyone saying otherwise is talking through their @ss. There's a guaranteed 11% yield on offer for now, and that's all there is to say about the divi. GLA

Thanks for the numbers at different commodity prices earlier today Tony. Out of interest, do they include the expected in-year boe production increase from the capex program?

Unless I'm mistaken the divi cannot be cut this year. They've stated what the payout will be for 2023, so although they may cut next year, it's not something they can / will do this year. All they can cut is the development budget.

SP is a f@cking joke. I get the feeling the mkt thinks there will be yet another miss, and if so we will drop further. If they got the news out when they said it would be delivered then maybe we'd be in a better place. Mgt need to get their act together.

Not quite that simple to make the comparison Stas, which I'm sure Tony will point out as well. We don't know the mix of that 36kboepd. If the production mix is say 75% oil/liquids versus our less than 50% then it makes a big difference on the commercial values. The other point is they get better prices for the same products. Unfortunately the Canadian O&G industry doesn't benefit in the same way as US producers. So until we know the mix we can't make any real comparison. Having said that, I would be v.confident it would be more than our current mcap if we do get the numbers.

Yes some very large trades seem to have gone through. Who knows if they were buys or sells as they would have been worked for some time. Either way they have found a new home, which is a good thing.

SP is pathetic. And if they drop our Q4 update on a Friday and it misses the lower forecast 2022 numbers then we're going to feel a whole lot of pain. Mgt simply must deliver on their numbers. And they need to do better on the PR front. Being 'new' or 'unknown' isn't a valid reason. It just points to the fact they haven't done enough to get us on radars. Deliver Q4 production and financial targets, PR the results, remind investors of the yield, and provide some drilling highlights for our relatively unknown acreage. They could also announce a strategic buy-back. Or as some have suggested take out some debt (say $30m) and drill more oil rich wells. If the wells will pay out within 1 year then it makes perfect sense to go after some growth. The market won't punish us for having a small amount of debt. It will reward the growth story, which will be very quick given we have drill ready sites and they're on-shore. There's lots that mgt can do to fix the value disconnect. Instead they're saying our results will address the issue, which simply isn't true. Anyway, hopefully some decent results in the next day or two. AIMHO GLA