Member Info for G_G_G

You're not giving away shareholder money when raising capital. And it's not being done to reduce debt, it's being pointed at production that is both quick to execute and payback, thereby rapidly growing revenue and putting us on a stronger financial footing moving forward. It also tilts our production base more to oil, and will increase our reserves base in 2024. And then there's the II base being expanded in our secondary market. Again making us more resilient. So again, why is it nuts? And why is it any more nuts than what we've done in the past?

Woops almost forgot, when I say print I mean issue, and when I say give I mean sell.

The language was clear enough for you to understand Pete, which I imagine is something. And why is the idea nuts? We've printed a **** tonne of shares and given them to IIs in the past for exploration and acquisitions. Why not do the same now and use the proceeds to expand production and our Canadian investor base? And who's money is being given away exactly?

Tony, where did you get those 2022 numbers from?

Yes Passer that's what I meant. Print 10% for say £25m (USD$30m) and point the proceeds at oil bearing wells. The shares should be given to a well known Canadian fund, ideally one like Nine Point who are very well followed in the country and internationally. We'd get massive exposure amongst Canadian PIs and IIs. We'd have more liquidity in that market. We'd add another 2-3kbopd (oil) with a payback in 9 months. And given these things I think such a move would be well received by the market and we'd increase in value. Yes it's dilutive and we'd lose 10% of our divi yield, but the chances of it being hiked back to today's levels or higher still increase markedly in 2024. It would give us a significant buffer and almost guarantee the sort of yield we have now for the next 21 months and probably more. We'll also get to add oil reserves in 2024. Either that or do more PR, which they don't seem to like doing. Or sell the lot. But do something.

Bunk, I'm confident in mgt's abilities from and Ops pov, and to make good deals. They're top notch in many areas, however they let themselves down by being tardy with investor updates and PR. I've said before their only investor concerns lie with IIs, which leaves us especially vulnerable to just a few large holders that can drag our sp into the doldrums on minor readjustments to their portfolios. It's healthy to have a solid PI base. It means you are well known amongst many investors who combined have more money they are willing invest than a couple of IIs. Yes bad news will send PIs running, but equally good news will attract them. Providing you are a well run company that provides regular updates to the market you can expect to be well valued against peers. Maybe even over-valued like some of the PANR or 88e ****e that has attracted small investors en-masse.

We have a cost of living crisis and this company is paying a safe 12% dividend and will most likely put on 50% if we start to become known amongst PIs. And that will only value us in-line with our peer average and still be paying an 8% yield. And yet I see very little being done by mgt to attract these investors. Ultimately it's the man in the street that will get us closer to a reasonable valuation versus peers. It's obvious that IIs aren't investing but reducing. Mgt are very clever guys, but they need to get over their contempt for PIs and start doing things to make them invest. If they're unwilling to do this (part of their job), then print 10% more shares and give them to Nine Point or an equally well-known fund in Canada. Use the cash to drill oil wells only, which will add reserves to our portfolio. And then tell the market about the results. Doing this will eventually trickle through in results and the sp. Or, put up the for sale sign, take the money, and start again elsewhere.

Let's see if we're still waiting on the reserves and 2022 financial results next week. AIMHO GLA

Fellas, would it be fair to say that based on acreage, booked locations, reserves, and reserve life, we should be valued at somewhere around 40-50% of the recent CAD$1.7bn transaction? This would mean CAD$700-850m, or about £420-500m. This in turn equates to 35-41p. So similar range to NOI multiples, which also sounds about right for me. Spartan Delta also has zero net debt. To be honest if we got offered anything above 35p I'd happily take it. And if we got 40p I'd be over the moon. Either way we must certainly be on some radars right now. Does anyone know whether an offer of say 36p has to be released to the market, even if mgt feel it fundamentally under-values us?

Never a better time for mgt to start hitting their deadlines (and numbers). Providing they're decent and WTI keeps climbing back to $75 I'm hoping we find ourselves back above 20p. Current sp is beyond a joke.

Wow. Thanks for these posts Mini - really interesting data you're sharing. That well is a beast. Where was it drilled, anywhere new? Tony, Shubham and you are providing a clearer picture of performance than what the company provides.

Anyone have any thoughts on the acquisition multiples? I did a quick valuation for us based on NOI multiples and our value outs as circa 35p (i3e NOI @ USD$160m x 3.3). There's a few other valuation metrics they provide that I haven't looked at. I'm not sure if the acquisition came with debt...? If so then it points to our value in a t/o being somewhere between 35-40p (cash). To be honest I think that's probably right as a deal that works for both parties. I'd prefer a merger with a big fish though, which is where I think we could get a better valuation i.e. 40-45p. Would love to hear other people's take on the deal and our valuation. AIMHO GLA

It would be closer to $25m no? One would also hope they're getting better at drilling higher than average well rates over time, so closer to the $10k mark. Either way some great info Tony and Mini, thanks for sharing.

Mini, do you know the level of oil being produced from our recent best Clearwater wells? Would of course be better if mgt decided to provide a regular update with production rates for all good / great new wells.

Personally I don't think moving to Canada will have all that much impact on the share price. Mgt need to get us on Canadian and UK investor radars, which by their own admission they haven't done. I think them buying some more shares at these bargain basement levels is one great way to do this. Simple, and easy for them to do. And they will no doubt make some money on the back of it. Most importantly it will be reported on both sides of the pond.

Sp action today is a delayed response to poo going to $73. It's also low single digit jump, and coming off a sp in the 16's, so I certainly wouldn't say that good eoy results have anything to do with it.

One suggestion I made in the past is why don't they raise £20-25m at this low range (say 18-21p so around 10% extra shares), and hand it to NinePoint Capital. Eric Nuttall gets an incredible deal both value and income wise. We get a vote of confidence from a leading global fund, a far bigger profile in Canada (and more shares listed there), and cash to drill another 2-3kbopd (oil). It's a complete WIN:WIN for everyone. The share price would rocket and we'd have another II / Fund on-board, but this time Canadian. The dividend would be diluted by 10%, but it would bounce back next year on the back of the extra 2-3kbopd. Or they could maintain it. Either way we'd be back in the high 20's in no time. It also means any t/o would need to be in the 40's to be considered. To my mind this is hard to fault, but would love to hear challenges...

Passer, I dump £20k into mine and £20k in the wife's ISA each year. We have a decent chunk outside of them so it makes me very happy every time we manage to move more across. It really does add up nowadays, especially with the latest decreases in CGT and Divi tax allowances.

Agree DM. But it doesn't change the fact we're grossly under-valued on financial metrics versus the average Canadian peer.

Now would be a good time for mgt to drop the reserves and the eoy financial reports providing both are good. If one of them misses (again) then it will go down like a wet f@rt. It will be interesting to see if they double efforts to support the sp following the releases. In the meantime WTI is pushing toward $75 and we're still in the 17's. I hope mgt see this as their failure to remedy. As I've said there's no point in saying we're relatively unknown then doing nothing to make us known. That's part of their job. AIMHO GLA

Unfortunately trading each side of the ex-divi date doesn't explain why we've been under-valued versus Canadian peers for some time now. It should also make investors stickier, as many of us are at the moment. I'm expecting a decent jump tomorrow providing WTI stays above $70. You can see how any buys in volume above 50k moves us into the 17's quite easily, which suggests to me the selling is almost done. Another 2 weeks before ISAs can get re-filled. At this price one can shift almost 240k shares into a tax free wrapper. That's £5k tax free income per year. So not too bad providing we do recover to the 20's in the next few weeks and stay there. Mgt do need to start focusing on closing the valuation gap with peers because the 'taking care of the ops and the sp will follow' logic clearly isn't working. GLA

Seriously wtf is going on with the sp? I can accept some weakness with commodity prices, but poo is back above $70 and we're below 17p!!! As I've said previously mgt have done a great job on the operational front, but their complete disregard for the share price evidenced by their lack of effort to drive it, has now become a joke. In the past mgt have spoken about us being 'relatively unknown', so who's job is it to get us on investor radars? Do they think investors will magically stumble across us? They need to get of their @sses and start talking about the investment proposition here. And if they can't be bothered they should put up the 'for sale' sign. We've been under-valued against the average Canadian peer for years now. And on paper we're better than the average. What does that say about the disconnect...? They need to pull their heads in and start doing what they don't want to do - generating PR and telling our story. It's not like there isn;t a long list of things to crow about - +23kboepd production and growing, blue-sky acreage, industry leading dividend, well results, zero net debt etc. They also need to get on top of updates in a timely manner. And, they need to double their efforts on the PR front when they release any major **** news, like the Serenity miss and the 2 x NOI downgrades. Their efforts in the PR department simply aren't good enough. It's all good and well getting some discounted shares, but I'd rather be picking them up for 20p than 16p. GLA

Further to my last post Tony I would ask the following:
- Have any approaches been made to buy our assets or the company? I ask this because my understanding is that mgt can dismiss any approach without notifying the market if they feel it fundamentally under-values the company. I could be wrong about this though.
- What is their stance on taking out debt (or raising equity) to fund more oil production? On the equity front, I'd be more than happy for them to print another 10% of shares for £25m and give it to Eric Nuttall's Nine Point. They can add another 3kbopd (oil) and we'd have a well known fund on-board (Canadian) who can pick a 10% dividend on their investment and no doubt another 25-50% in value increase when the market hears about their involvement. Having a large Canadian fund will also counterbalance the UK funds, alongside giving us more exposure amongst the local retail market. Pretty easy solution that's a win:win for everyone.

On the other points, I agree a main market listing could be a good idea. Having said this it will mean they need to get their **** together on reporting, which let's face it isn't their strong suit. Personally I can't see any benefit of a share consolidation at all. And shifting to the TSX isn't the answer as it's a smaller pool of investors and money to draw from. The issue is that no-one on both sides of the pond know who we are, because mgt cannot be bothered engaging the retail market or getting on-board a serious Canadian fund that will give us the exposure to the Canadian retail market.

The current share price should be a source of embarrassment for mgt. AIMHO GLA

Agree with everything in your post Tony. With respect to PR they need to do a lot more interviews alongside more rns's. There's Proactive, Vox, Malcy, lse etc. They can do paid promotion on some sites, such as the video space seen on the page that we're on now. An interview running on this board for a month will cost very little, but could generate a couple of pennies on the share price given the tens of thousands of people that will see it. Their job isn't to do the promotional rounds only when we need money or are in trouble. Their job is to do it ALL THE TIME. And the beauty of doing an interview and putting it here is thousands of investors will see it over and over again.

The issue we face is only a small pool of investors know our story and numbers, so whenever one large investor (or many small ones) decide to sell it can cause the sp to sink quite rapidly because you don't have enough people who are aware of the 'on sale' price and start to pile in. At the moment our sp is driven by the same small pool of investors (IIs and PIs), and until they grow the pool our sp will remain under-valued. The fact we've been under-valued versus the market for an extended period of time points to the fact they haven't done enough to get us on investor radars. My biggest criticism of mgt over the years has been their focus on IIs (when they need them), and almost a disregard for PIs and my evidence for this is their lack of engagement with the retail market. And the effects of this is what we're seeing now. The probability of someone investing in us is zero if they don't know who we are. PR and paid promotion is how you increase the probability of more investors. For every 1000 investors putting in £2000 you shift 1% of the float. And if just half of them reinvest their dividends then you start to get a snowball effect happening. But this can only happen when you have a bigger pool of people who know your story.

The one thing I will say is if they go anywhere near the dividend it will be catastrophic for the sp. I'm sure they're well aware of this, but that must be the last place they go for anything this year, regardless of commodity prices. If production has to remain flat this year, then so be it. At least the small group of investors who know our story i.e. us, can benefit from the 'on-sale' price for a few months. AIMHO GLA

Hi guys, sorry I've been slammed at work the past 24 hours so unable to respond. Tony, I agree with all the points you made over the past day or two regarding the reasons for the drop. I also see all the positives. But the market clearly doesn't as we're still well below average peer multiples, when we all know that we're an 'above average' investment proposition for a multitude of reasons. This means the disconnect is even greater.

The issue as I see it was highlighted by the fund manager you mentioned. He couldn't believe that he'd never heard of the company, and he's an investment advisor / expert, which says it all. They need to get us on more radars, both PI and II. And they need to work even harder on this given the 'major' news that has been shared the past 12 months has mostly been negative, barring the dividend announcement, which was fantastic. So many investors haven't heard of us, and when they have it has most likely been in a negative context. Mgt are doing a great job across the board except for promoting the company. Simple things like doing the interview rounds every quarter on financials and production. Sharing great drill results as another poster has mentioned. Highlighting our blue-sky acreage and growth potential. Basically doing as much PR as possible on every bit of good news. And in the background they should continue working on the IIs. Sadly they've always thought first and foremost about IIs, but the sp is more likely to be influenced by PIs providing no institutions are selling. There's a hell of a lot of PI money sloshing around in ****ty / risky investments on the lse board alone. And yet we are rarely mentioned on other forums. And rarely appear in any worthwhile promotional space in the small investor world. Doc Jones was responsible for the first re-rate that we saw years ago. A single person with a decent Canadian following doubled our share price. Again this points to how mgt simply aren't doing enough to push the company. I sometimes think they're not talking about our blue-sky acreage for fear that it will attract a predator. But the less they open their mouths to promote the company, the lower our valuation, and the greater the chance we'll get taken out for 35p. Right now I'd happily sell my shares for that amount as I cannot see us getting there by doing the same things that we've always done i.e. head down hoping the market will one day notice us. Only with greater exposure will investors know our story and choose to invest. And it's mgt's role to generate that exposure in WORDS and deeds. If the sp malaise isn't their responsibility, then who's is it? AIMHO GLA

Tony, they are some good points that you raise, but the stark reality is there's a disconnect between our value versus average values in the Canadian O&G patch across most multiples. What's worse is we know our fundamentals are better than the average, which makes the disconnect even greater. From my pov I think mgt are too focused on operations, which they do brilliantly, but feel they also need to address the yawning value disconnect. And if they're not willing to do it then put up a 'for sale' sign.

Meanwhile WTI went back through $70 today and we went backwards. And that's on ex-divi day. Makes you wonder what would happen if poo went to $60. GLA

Nice to see poo clawing its way back to $70. Shame we're not clawing our way back up to 20p. A decent push back to WTI$75 would help, but I do think it will take the Fed leaving interest rates alone for this meeting or OPEC announcing a decent cut for that to happen in the next few weeks. As for $140 poo, I really don't see that happening at all this year. I think a realistic price with measurable supply deficit is WTI+$90 in Q4, which would suit me fine. Providing gas prices improve to CAD+$4.50 AECO then I think we can expect the mid to high 20's again. We certainly need some good news on 2022 financials and reserves to give us a boost now.

As always I'm praying for a t/o offer at +35p. Anything above that number and I'll be a very happy man. AIMHO GLA

Net profit at that Pete

Regarding my earlier post I wasn't suggesting NOI and Earnings are one and the same. To be honest I hadn't taken into account all of the factors listed below, namely hedging losses. Good to see everything broken down in this way - thanks for providing KS.