Member Info for G_G_G

Shearclass, £100m will make a decent dent in net debt, and if you believe mgt's statements about being profitable from H2 then you don't want to give away too much ownership at once. Perhaps it would be better to raise £150m, but the more you end up raising the more you need to give away. At the moment a raise price of 400p is still possible. If they keep stalling it could be significantly lower. So in that regard I agree they need to get it done. It's good mgt to do a raise before the market even knows one is necessary. Asos is simply making things worse by doing nothing when it's obvious they need additional liquidity at some point.

Fwiw I think this will get taken down to £400m mcap, so another 5-10% for current levels. I also think a capital raise is already being discussed around this level, which is driving the selling by those 'in the know'. If I was to hazard a guess I think they'll try to raise circa £100m and dilute by 25%. Smart move would be to speak with the Arabs and get them to fling some pocket change. They're looking for places to park their windfall cash and Asos is surely a better investment than THG. Either way there's something behind the current drop that cannot be explained entirely by the recent results. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Tony, I appreciate you taking the time and welcome your thoughts on PTAL. GLA

Thetank, I think you may have me confused with someone else as I have no idea what company you're referring to in RRL. You can obviously look at my posting history over the years and see where I've made (and lost) money. Having said that I normally make money, and have certainly made a lot more money than I've lost over the years. Fwiw I'm holding 2m shares at 4.5p here. I sold some last week for 5.5p and I'll buy them back in the 4's if the permit hasn't landed in the coming weeks. I'll go for somewhere between 2.5-3m shares at no more than a 4.65p average. And when the permit does land I'll sit and wait for the sp to hit 8p then sell everything. That's my trade.

Everyone here is free to do what they want with their money. I'm pretty confident in my thinking here, and wish everyone the best of luck with eml.

Hi Tony, you asked about my views on PTAL the other day. Firstly I agree i3e is still one of the best (and safest) O&G investments pretty much anywhere, which is why I still hold around 3.5m shares here. The reasons why I've thrown some money at PTAL as follows:

- Breached 20kbopd (oil) monthly production and sales for two months running. They're expected to do the same in the coming months whilst river levels are high.

- Production previously constrained by delivery issues related to indigenous protests (armed riots). This has now ended due to a social program where production payments are made to a fund set-up by PTAL. This has led to the ONP pipeline re-opening meaning a future option for PTAL to deliver its crude. With this up and running PTAL has the ability to produce and transport +25kbopd even in seasonal periods where river barging is restricted.

- Expected 2023 production and sales 14-15kbopd (most likely will be higher regardless of ONP re-opening). With ONP being utilized in seasonal low river periods I can see the number being more in the range of 17-18kbopd.

- Current cash on hand would now greater than $70m (no debt).

- Expected after tax fcf in 2023 to be $85m based on 14-15kbopd.

- Expected EBITDA $220m @ $84 Brent. Again there's a good $50m upside to this.

- $125m 2023 development program pushing production closer to 25kbopd.

- Quarterly dividend payments to begin in June (+10% yield).

- Committed buy-back of 2.5% of shares to begin early H2. This is the base case. Additional buy-bcks will be made (or dividend payments) over and above them holding $60m in liquidity. I think there's 3-4x this buy-back level on offer in the next 12 months. Dividend is safe.

- New production well result June / July.

I'm expecting all these impressive numbers to increase by a factor of 10-20% if the ONP is utilized in late H2 as it will mean an annual production rate at 10-20% higher than expected. Major risk of course are the protests / riots starting up again and a transportation accident of some kind on the Amazon (nightmare scenario). To be honest I'll be looking at moving money back from there to here if it jumps at a faster rate than i3e in H2, which is what I'm expecting to happen. Hopefully I'm right and I can shoot through 5m shares in a few months. Reckon it will move by 15-25% in the next 3 months, which I'm doubtful i3e will achieve current circumstances being equal. Anyway, that's my take. GLA

other benefit of some good news is less **** being thrown around on this board.

Reckon there could be a chunky sell order sitting behind the lines for this price action today. Still see this being in the 4's by the end of next week without permit news. Big question is whether it lands before the AGM in 3 weeks. If it doesn't we'll be back in the mid 4's shortly afterwards. Sadly emotion is one of the biggest drivers of AIM (good and bad), and it will be quite negative if the market is still waiting in another month. AIMHO GLA

Agree the buy-back is incredibly conservative, which may be keeping the mcap anchored around £400m. One needs to keep in mind this is the base shareholder return level and the final numbers will depend on how much liquidity they have on a quarterly basis versus the $60m minimum level they have set. If they continue selling closer 20kbopd and Brent averages $85 for the remainder of the year then I'd expect the level of buybacks to increase by a factor of 3-4x this year. When combined with a minimum 10% divi yield and the ONP being utilized, one can see how the 60's will be reached this year. AIMHO GLA

I just think some people are willing to take their 25% from the very recent 4.5p days knowing they can get back in for the same amount in a couple of weeks if the permit hasn't landed. What I was saying the other day. It's nothing other than a bit of trading and AIM market mentality. Permit lands and this will be much higher. AIMHO GLA

Have to say the drop is quicker than I expected. Next stop 5-5.2p range. If it drops below 5p then I'll start adding again. Reckon end of next week without news and we'll breach that barrier. Permit landing and 8-10p is my view. AIMHO GLA

Agree fellas. The only direction for oil in the next 6-9 months is up providing the world economy doesn't tank. And even then I think base supply / demand fundamentals will win out in the end (or OPEC will force it). I'm guessing the wild fires in Canada are spooking a few investors here. Providing there is no damage to infrastructure I see this as a good buying opportunity for those with spare cash.

Tony, have you been keeping an eye on PTAL? Some interesting things happening that could be worthy of your attention. Reckon it has quite good potential for value + income gains in the next 2-3 months. I've picked up 350k shares over there so not too deep (for now). Would be good to get your thoughts. GLA

Indeed Dshox, but it's really about when the permit gets approved. If we're still talking about it in another month I can assure you the sp will be back in the 4's. I got my shares at 4.5p thanks to people being fed up over waiting. There has been a lot of shares bought sub 4.5p and many will be happy to take profit if they start to doubt the permit arriving anytime soon. The recent forum will be long forgotten in a month. So it's really just a matter of timing from here. From my pov I hope it lands in the next week or so and we get to springboard from 5.5-6p rather than 4.5-5p. The company did a stellar job at SIAM on the PR front, but now they need to get on and clear this rather large environmental hurdle, and soon. AIMHO GLA

Expecting this to drift downward every week that goes by without the permit. I think there was a lot of excitement surrounding the recent investment forum in Morocco but don't expect the weaker hands to keep holding onto their profit if another month goes by without news. I'm sure it will come but it's incredible just how long these things can take. I've cash at the ready should we get back to 5p. The recent action gives a sense of where the sp will end up when the permit finally lands. For me that's 8-10p range so a good 50% from here. AIMHO GLA

Hey Parge, still here. Sorry I haven't been posting much the past few weeks between being on holiday and getting smashed at work. Full disclosure I sold down a chunk of shares here around 21p over the past 6-8 weeks and took a position in EML @ 4.5p and PTAL @ 44p average. Still holding about 3.3m shares here and will look to move funds back in the coming months. If EML get the long overdue environmental license as expected in the coming weeks I should end up with a decent chunk of extra cash. The question is whether I put everything from that investment back here or more into PTAL. I think end Q3 and Q4 are going to be the next run on O&G companies, especially if we avoid a wider economic meltdown. Interest rates will be left on hold for the remainder of the year and the oil market will go into deficit around the same time as Europe needs to re-fill gas storage without the support of Russian resources. So still one of the best sectors from a macro standpoint imo.

I also think mgt are going to pull a rabbit out of the hat with an acquisition in the coming months. How well the sp performs will come down to how they finance anything, but if it's on decent terms and primarily via debt then I'd expect the sp could jump quite a bit and strengthen further when commodity prices rebound. Either way I'm looking forward to end H2 regardless of an acquisition being made. GLA

Thanks for confirming viable. Just picked up another 75k at 43.13p. Reckon we're near our lows now.

Viable, is that link about shipments or production? Is it for April or March? And, am I correct in saying they hit 635k barrels? Sorry for all the questions.

£61k was a sell. Good that it got mopped up and the sp is still moving upwards though. Hopefully some news in the next week or two and we can test the prices being thrown about here. I'm going with 7.5p lower and 10p upper limit. GLA

Agree BBB and Tobin, the current oil price is stuffing the sp. As for use of funds, I'm hoping the buyback combined with a double digit dividend will push us back to 50p alone (even with poo in the 70's). The company is lightly traded and the dividend will keep most holders sticky alongside the promise of higher production. The production will be constrained by river levels and barge availability, which is why they need to keep punching out 20kbopd monthly deliveries now. This will ultimately bring us back down to the 15kbopd range. If the pipeline gets up and running in the second half as a reliable means of transport then don't be surprised if they average closer to 20kbopd delivered. That and the increase in poo in the second half of the year, combined with divis, buybacks and a few more wells and this will break new highs. I'm going to wait and see if there's more profit taking form the recent drop to see if I can pick up shares closer to 40p. I don' see the 30's happening unless poo goes closer to $60. Could happen, but would be quick. AIMHO GLA

Guys let's not get carried away. I was buying in blocks of 250-500k @ 4.5p over the course of a week. And I do it in the afternoon when I get some time in the day between work. It's not a particularly big buy and the timing means nothing. As for sp when (if) the permit drops, I'm going with 8-10p. It would be lovely to break 10p but it would require a lot of excitement. That's a huge jump from now btw. Anyone want to see how such things play out best look or speak to hzm holders (I'm one btw). Also do any of those twitter links work for people? GLA

Question, has the company indicated how much they intend to put toward buybacks this year?