Member Info for G_G_G

The trend in online shopping has slowed post pandemic. However if you look at the trend over a longer period it's all upwards. Asos is the same. This will continue and part of the reason for the slowing has been the cost of returns to businesses. Once they work out how to efficiently manage returns (and knock-on effect to stock levels) then profits will follow. The external factors hitting the industry are new and they're now starting to manage them more effectively.

Good news Thursday and we'll be back at the placing price within a week. Good forward guidance and outlook and we'll be back to 500p within the month.

I think one thing's for sure, if they can show the turnaround is in play this will rocket. It doesn't need to be spectacular, just evidence of what they have provided as guidance to the market. Investors need to consider that Asos has weathered the biggest storm in its existence. Other than cost of living crisis & rampant inflation (now decreasing), there has been massive cost increases, supply chain issues, huge shorting, and more recently insurance scaremongering. Add to this incompetent mgt who have made some howlers, but appear to have learned from mistakes, and you have the current sp. But if mgt can demonstrate the company can turn a profit in this environment then I expect the sp to re-rate to 500p and then one of the many vultures to swoop in the next 3-6 months.

As I've said previously I believe Povlsen and Camelot will team up. They almost have enough shares to force a t/o and I'm sure if they offer £10-12 most of the free float will go with them. MA is just being a thorn in their side. He can force a strategic tie-up with his shares, and can walk away with £50m profit. The bigger his holding the bigger the thorn he becomes and can force his own terms on the newly private company plus make more profit form the t/o. Who knows he may even team up with them. They could de-list from the LSE and re-list in the US and get their entire investment back and more within 12 months. F@cking crazy valuation here if the turnaround is in play. If this drops to 330p again today I'll go in for another 7500 shares and that'll be my limit. AIMHO GLA

Pretty !diotic thing to do Karl. Anders would be writing off billions in his investment here. Do you think the other major funds and investors would be happy to do the same? And what happens with the best part of $1bn in value if Asos does (unlikely) go bust? The amount of money that will be willingly thrown in here at lower rates by major investors before this company goes bust would be significant. And then of course there's the bidding war that could break out between PE, Anders, MA, Alibaba... take your pick.

As Coldspy has sad, people need to settle down here and wait for Thursday.

Badjob, they reiterated guidance when they agreed the recent raise & loan terms. So if they miss what they've said only a couple of weeks ago then surely senior mgt members will need to stand down. One has to remember our biggest shareholders were averaging down in that raise and are now 20% under-water on the most recent £75m equity raise. So they must have been reassured the business is healthy enough to weather the recent storms.

As for 'rushing terms', I agree it was unnecessarily fast for reasons I cannot quite get my head around. But what I find most interesting is they could have gotten similar terms by going with MA who now owns an extra 5% anyway. So the decision to rush through terms is one interesting question, but why say no to MA and yes to all other major shareholders?

To my mind mgt are expecting a bid from these major shareholders and have positioned them to do so more easily. No doubt the December bid kicked off conversations with our major holders and perhaps a plan was hatched to take it private at this point. MA with his 10% gives himself a seat at the table in any t/o talks. I think he is probably angling for a strategic tie-up with his other companies and brands post t/o. Either way, if the turnaround looks to be working on Thursday this is going to move very fast indeed.

I do agree that Asos has everything priced in now. Priced for inflation. Priced for recession. Priced pretty much to fail. I'm now £187k deep (@355p). I'll probably add another £20k and bring my average to 353p. I'm looking for at least £50k profit by the end of this month. If the news is quite +ve then I'll hold for 500p at least. AIMHO GLA

The way I see it is company value bounced off £500m mcap twice in October and December last year. Now we have 20% more shares, but more financial headroom. If we get evidence the turnaround is 'in play' then I expect £500m mcap (418p) to be the first stopping point. Getting beyond this level will depend on how solid the results look. We could very easily spring back to £600m mcap (£5) if the results look good and the small cap tracker funds start buying in later this month. MA buying will only add fuel to the recovery. We could easily be 50% higher than today's share price in the next 2 weeks if mgt prove their worth. Just 3 more days, which way will it go...

I would hope we get some form of news this month (end H1). I've emailed the company pointing out that delays happen, but when guidance (inc. broker guidance) hasn't been met they need to provide an update to their shareholders. It's simply poor mgt to let things slide. Delays happen, especially in Africa. And permits can be notoriously difficult to obtain, especially in Africa. But it's not good enough to take the stand-point of radio silence with investor money. A simple 'thing are progressing and we feel confident...' will suffice. End H1 is less than 3 weeks. Let's see what we get in that time. GLA

I think MA is going to need a hell of a lot more than 10% share to get near a t/o. He's just positioning himself for Dane / Camelot / Elliott to take this private and will no doubt want some kind of strategic partnership as part of the deal. Plus he'll make upwards of £50m profit in the case of a £1bn sale. If I were him I'd keep buying all the way up to 30% if the price stays this low. He simple can't lose at these levels. By accumulating more he can force a sale, and although he has a long way to go, he may just buy enough to take it private himself.

Tony, I was referring to this year's NOI guidance. I agree the 2022 results were very good across the board. The only thing they didn't manage to do well in the past year was to prove up Serenity. Hopefully they're going to monetize that asset soon and can reinvest into Canada. Very comfortable with all mgt decisions and looking forward to seeing what they do with the sp account capital. GLA

Well I took another 6100 this morning at 328. Average for 52.5k is just a touch under 355p. Quite a bit more skin in this game than originally planned. I think we could see an almighty gap up if Q3 news is +ve and the recent selling pressure was from funds who have now largely exited. Good news and I think we'll break £500m mcap (418p). Very good news and we're likely to go to £600m over the course of a few weeks. The t/o level appears to be set for £1bn so plenty of upside providing mgt can prove their turnaround is being executed and haven't been lying to the market. Some good news in the coming days would obviously be helpful given the recent supplier insurance storm and declining retail figures. All will be revealed on Thursday. GLA

Seawitch, yes I've considered whether it's a bad thing. The only issue is he appears to be quite close with Camelot / Barker and Elliott. For all we know they're going to let the company slowly die before making a derisory offer. My hope is MA continues picking up the free float at these levels and provides a counter-weight to any type of shenanigans by the other major holders. If he can build a +15% holding then he can sway things quite a bit. Of course if Thursday's update is +ve and evidences the turnaround plan is working then all of this will make no difference. We'll spring back 25% in a flash and everyone here will be breathing easy and talking again of £10-12 take-over offers from one or a number of the major shareholders.

The thing that really irks me is the lack of comms on the December t/o offer. I just don't see how the bod cannot notify the market of an offer that was significantly higher than the sp at the time but instead go and speak to major holders to get their views. Having notified the market they would have been able to raise cash at a much higher level and Asos long-term would be absolutely secure with more headroom and the turnaround plan in action. Quite incredible really.

I do wonder if the cancellation of the sp account is also a means to maintain NOI guidance by giving us more flexibility to increase development... Given the way commodity prices have performed to date it's unlikely we'll get near their original guidance, which will of course have an adverse effect on the sp. But if we increase production to minimise the NOI deficit, and maintain the dividend, plus do a buy-back of 10%, well it's unlikely that we'll be lower than 20p in a few months. Even with a NOI downgrade, the production increase, divi yield plus bbs should improve the sp. The 10% bb is only £22.5m so there's a lot of cash to play with still.

On the bb, I also wonder if this is a way to protect us against a derisory t/o offer by shoring up the sp...?

Could be joining dots that don't exist so would be good to get other's thoughts.

Exactly Warren B, it's fine for revenue to be lower providing margin improves, hence the focus on this part of the business. They also need to get on top of stock and returns.

I do believe the next update will be favorable. How favorable is the question. Decent and we'll be back to £450m mcap. If clear, strong signs of a turnaround plus reinforced guidance for the remainder of the year, then I can see us climbing back through £500m mcap. So 15-30% range from current sp. If mgt get it wrong however, then heads should definitely roll. They simply cannot miss restated guidance from just a couple of weeks ago. They have such a small amount of wriggle room over the recent loan and raise debacle given what they had said up until this point. But the market clearly knew it was on the cards as it downgraded the sp closer to what the raise price happened to be (with PIs thinking they were getting a bargain). This company is quite crooked by the look of things. And mgt are clearly in cahoots with Povlsen. To not announce the offer and then be raising at circa 400p is quite unforgiveable. My feeling is they allowed him to average down and position the sp so he can make an offer with Elliot in the not too distant future. There's a crazy stink here but there's certainly money to be made. My bet is the sp will recover on the back of Thursday's news. If poor results then mgt should be investigated for fraud. It's really that simple.

Over 30m shares have changed hands here in the past 20 trading days from 500p down to 325p today. And we're looking at close to 10m shares since June 01st. As much as MA has added a few % in the past couple of weeks there's a hell of a lot more that has been dumped by II(s). I've chased this down to just under 360p average and every time I bought more shares I thought it must be the bottom.

This is a car crash at the moment and next Thursday is absolutely make or break for mgt. They're incredibly incompetent if they haven't kitchen sinked the last update and on track to hit the most recent guidance. Even worse if you consider they had ample opportunity to raise at far higher prices, and worse still could have released news of the approach for +£10 then raised off the back of it for almost double the value. Same number of shares printed but $200m raised would have completely changed the outlook of the company. I also cannot get my head around how the approach wasn't released to the market. Surely this would constitute material news for investors...?

It still never ceases to amaze me how exec mgt get paid so much to make such bad decisions.

My theory is MA has positioned himself to be 'Kingmaker' and not owner. Providing the business rights itself in the coming quarters the sp will recover to the 500's and any t/o will need to be north of £1bn (£8.50). If you're MA you could position yourself as a blocker of any deal unless the new owners entered into some type of strategic partnership with his other interests. And based on a t/o of say £10 he would also have made over £60m in profit alongside wrapping up a partnership. If he keep accumulating, which I think he will at these levels, then he can make even more money and have even greater leverage. I don't see him being acquirer unless he teams up with Povlsen. This is unlikely given their rather hostile history.

SP destruction must be funds selling down. There's too much downward pressure and shenanigans being played. AIMHO GLA

agree lloydboy on the admin statements and the company being worth twice current value on assets alone. stupid even talking about such things especially given our financial headroom.

have to say sp action is very strange as someone is selling into this for ma to accumulate a significant stake in the past few weeks alone. then you have the fact that shorts are meant to be decreasing, so this should also push the sp higher. and of course there is asos and its rather sketchy record of having information 'leaked' to the iis / funds before being shared with the market. if iis and funds have an idea that q3 is going to be strong that would explain why shorts are closing, but doesn't explain the sp action. the only possible explanations are a major holder is decreasing its position, or iis re-balancing post ftse250 relegation, and/or pis ****ting the bed. bad news today on high street retail activity so that's no doubt the cause of today's weakness. the well known (and well publicised) supplier news over the past few days has been the other drag on the sp in the past few days.

big thing is next week's results. if showing signs of a turnaround then we'll add 25% in the blink of an eye. if we see strong numbers then we could have one of those 40-50% jumps in a week. really comes down to the q3 trading update. mgt careers are on the line for this one.

i've added more today. now holding 46.5k shares at 359.5p average. i'll probably top up one more time to round out at 50k shares, which should bring my average down to 358p. hoping for some good news next week (or i'm f@cked). gla

mcap bouncing off £400m. when the market has no idea how to value a company it will often choose big round numbers like where we sit today. i stupidly thought £450m was the base as we bounced around this number for a little while until the recent ****bagging article landed. sadly i piled in at this point, but doing so again now to lower my average a bit further. have just picked up another 18,250 shares at under 340p this morning in 3 tranches. average is now 365p so pretty good all things considered.

if we get the expected turnaround statement in 2 weeks i can see this taking us up to £500m mcap in a flash, or about 20% from here. reckon we could even get to £600m mcap if the news is quite positive. we also know the base t/o price is set at £1bn so around £8.50. the market has priced asos to fail, and there's a hell of a lot that's required for that to happen. how much did we pay for topshop again after admin? if another company gets its expected good news in the next week and we're still languishing at this level then i'll double my holding and hold my breath for the next update. squeaky bum time now for 2 weeks. aimho gla

well that clears up the question on dividends for sometime. it's a fairly significant sum of money as well. now where is that louis / sideshow jim ****?

Thanks for your workings Tony. For me I think this comes back to what is the best way to spend that kind of production investment i.e. if one was to take the total amount for i3e to develop Serenity and apply it to Canada, where is the best allocation of cash? And considering we have no regulatory hurdles to clear, low risk wells, and fast pay-back, why would we bother with Serenity at all if there's so many unknowns and so much time to develop? If another party were to offer $40m for our stake I'd bite your hand off. That's 2-3kbopd flowing within 6 months. I get the decline is quicker on these wells and we may only get 60% liquids, but the money they would be throwing off each year could be reinvested into new wells and production. Realistically it would be 3 years before we get any agreements signed, regulatory approval (if at all), and finally development time. There's also development risk with these wells. And there's the tax issue that could easily be worse than the already punitive system placed on the O&G industry should Labor get in at the next election. Given our low risk acreage in Canada that is yet to be appraised and developed, I'd take $20m for our stake and happily wave it goodbye. AIMHO GLA

No more big sells today at least. Perhaps a large PI dumping...

issue with ma getting to 10% (no doubt on the back of today) is he's unlikely to be a buyer unless the company goes bust. he is however a potential blocker to a bigger player, like povlsen, alibaba etc. he got f@cked over by povlsen so i wouldn't put it past him to get some payback. either way it will be harder for anyone to snap this up for a reasonable sum (for buyer and asos) with ma holding 10%. fwiw i think £1bn is a bl@@dy good deal for this company as things currently stand. but holvsen killed it, which is why he has to be on-board for any t/o. reckon ma has picked up another 1% today from pis ****ting the bed.