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Agree Knowbody. They're not going to provide any profit updates until August at the earliest. There's a lot that can happen here in the next 6 weeks as we've all seen in the past 6 weeks, and the 6 weeks before that, and so on... Besides, I don't think it will have the same impact on the sp as a major shareholder adding, or a t/o to state the obvious.

Gold investor, why would they provide an update straight after the last one with so little data. It just wouldn't happen. Things are looking good, we get it. But there's no need to share pant p!ssing dreams.

Looking good here. If we get one of those TR1s that must be coming down the pipeline then we could be in for a very fast re-rate to 500p. If any of our major shareholders (Anders, MA, Camelot) have added a few % it's going to jump quite sharply.

I take solace in the fact they need to say something in the next couple of weeks. That's about it. Shambles really.

'...once you have seen a few of these on other stocks, it just becomes very obvious. clearly in a few days time the shares will not be worth more than 16p. its already done imo. cue the drop below the placing as disgruntled pi's sell out, and the ii's who sold at 18p can buy back their shares. chuck in a good dollop of warrants, and its the perfect aim dogs breakfast...'

this is what i was referring to dartron. i've seen it happen before on other stocks and it stinks. i've got 65k shares in asos now and saw it happen over there to pis. thankfully i bought in after pis got f@cked so i'm up. others have had to watch the sp capitulate from 700p to 325p (at its lowest) whilst mgt were saying 'no raise is necessary'. the city obviously knew they were in discussions and dumped stock all the way down to guess where, the placing price. it then took a breather before dropping form 420p to 325p and is now back to 400p i.e. still below placing.

if i3e have done have given the city a free lunch at our expense i'll be pretty f@cking dirty. and if not, it means they have watched the sp capitulate on the back of rumors of the divi being cut and done nothing to get the rns into the market, alongside delaying the q1 results. so it's a bit of a ****show either way. at least it's only a couple more days to see what's been happening. gla

hopefully it isn't happening here and its all fear generated by mgt being f@cking useless with getting out q1 and dividend announcements. either way it's a very bad look. it's either poor mgt, or they're allowing their city mates to gorge at the trough (again).

Jesus Christ, we're now in the 15's!!! This is ridiculous.

Yeah that's where my head has been going Older. I've also been thinking an acquisition could be around the USD$75m range, which I figure would be around the right range for 5kbopd oil / gas mix (happy to stand corrected).

I personally don't mind too much if they're reducing the payment per share dividend providing the deal is on v.good terms, and they're utilizing at least 50% debt. It's how I'd do it i.e. mix debt / equity, except I'd go with 2/3rd debt funded. The additional production will service the debt and within 6 months you'll be back to paying the equivalent dividend per share providing commodity prices are at this level or stronger. I'd imagine within 12 months the divi could even be increased depending on how hard they want to go with development of assets.

Anyway, all speculation due to the faltering sp. If there's nothing like this happening they need to give their heads a wobble and get on top of the little things like timely quarterly updates and dividend payments. F@cking joke to be dragging their feet and keeping the market guessing in this environment.

My fear cmcc is our sp is down at this £200m mcap level because the bod have an acquisition lined up and are looking to raise at 16p. It's incredible how the sp of some companies move to the raise price in the days and weeks before anything happens. This of course could just be a reaction to the macro, poo and gas, and the ridiculous delays to q1 results plus this month's divi payment. Either way it's not a good look. I have a mate who put some money in here on my rec who was asking last night wtf is going on and I was stumped to find a reasonable answer. The sp has hit new 52 week lows and the macro / poo & gas are stronger. Wtf are mgt doing here...?

Agree Stas, but that's why it's 'some unknown reason'. Interesting how gas prices are starting to firm. Seasonal climb normally starts late July / early August so another 6 weeks and we should begin the climb into winter storage. Granted Europe needs less than normal on a historical basis, but it's also the first winter they will have had without no Russian gas. I'm expecting prices to firm to $5 by Xmas. Oil as most have stated will certainly be higher at Xmas than now. Depending on what they have cooking this might be a good time to take profits (speaking for myself). Either way the turn in gas pricing is welcome. GLA

MA is just being a pain in the @ss for any would-be acquirer. With +10% he holds all the cards. I wouldn't be surprised if he slowly builds another 5-10% to ensure he is one of the key decisions makers in what comes next for Asos. But imo he isn't going to be buying us.

Interesting there's no TR1s after the past few weeks of trading. I have no idea how this is possible given how small the free float happens to be. Surely something this week.

Agree with your last post Tony.

Have to say it does feel like something big is going on behind the scenes. To have the divi announcement this late is odd to say the least. If I had to take a guess I'd say there's an acquisition being kicked about with the big unknown being whether we are the predator or prey. If predator they may be speaking to our major backers about raising capital at this level. And if we're the prey, well it's certainly easier to convince people to sell for 30p when you're 16p (rather than 20p). I'm thinking its more likely we're the predator and they're wanting print another 250m shares (or something of that magnitude). This is something I can stomach providing they are debt funding at least 50% of any acquisition. Another mass dilution event like previous would f@ck the sp for at least another year and that would p!ss me off to no end. It would obviously also have an impact on divi payments. Interesting the AGM is in a couple of days as well...

Having said all this it could be nothing and they're being f@cking useless again with their timings on the 'little things'. Or for some unknown reason it could be they need to wait until after the reduction of capital to announce the next divi...

Either way it's not long until the AGM so I'm sure all will be revealed this week. GLA

Good points Thorpe. I think the key for any of these permits is they cannot have conditions that would potentially make the mine too risky to develop, otherwise it would make it impossible to arrange finance. The conditions and agreeing the finer details are most likely what's been creating the headaches, especially when a key input (water) is in short (and shortening) supply in the area. Mgt won't release anything until all conditions have been explored and agreed. And as much as Morocco is different to its neighbors, it's still in a corrupt backwater known as Africa. Either way we'll get an update of sorts in the coming weeks. GLA

Well we have 2 more weeks to find out what the f@ck is going on here (if anything). Mgt need to provide some detail regarding the hold-ups and new time-lines. If they had any sense they would also get someone from the Moroccan authorities to back-up any 'positive' claims. This is pretty standard fare when the authorities are the cause of delays but supportive of a project. Not long now at least.

Roly, the answers to your q's as follows:

1. Yes, and quite easily. I believe they can cover the dividend out of current cashflow at current prices, but you also need to keep in mind they have announced a debt facility that gives them significant financial headroom to cover the stated development and dividend program in the unlikely event it should be required.

2. Not sure, but equally not worried given they were roughly net cash neutral when they announced the debt facility and I'd hazard a guess are still in that space without any drawdowns.

3. Yes. The poo and gas would need to fall quite a bit from this level before they cut the dividend. I imagine they will cut development first given it's so flexible, but even then they could use the debt facility to cover everything they have previously stated.

In summary, this company is pretty rock solid and will continue to be so even in a weaker commodity market i.e. even weaker than the current weak market. Gas starts its seasonal climb from late August, and oil is going to have a squeeze in Q4 that will continue into 2024 even with a weak economy. We're in the same situation as late 2020 when industry experts were warning there would be a squeeze in 2021. We just need to wait another 4-6 months for it to start.

Reckon we'll be in the mid 20's come Xmas if we haven't been taken out. People need to keep in mind we're one of the top 3 tastiest morsels in Canada. We tick every box and we're highly under-valued v peers when you take into account all financial and development metrics. So although we're hunting for an acquisition in this weak market, there's also bigger players that are doing the same and we must looking f@cking good right now. If we stay under 20p for too much longer I expect a bid to land in the 30-35p range, which is only £360-420m. AIMHO GLA

Certainly a head scratcher today. I was expecting a 420 close given how yesterday's news was absorbed. We'll be lucky if we close in the 4's at this rate.

Agree Tony. We'll see a climb back above 20p in Q4 when supply issues take over from recessions fears. There will also be the seasonal gas lift at this point. So if we're to do any acquisitions or more drilling now is the time to strike.

Thanks for your response and some good points Tony. Comments tend to carry a bit more weight when when a credible source is tight lipped, so can't be a bad thing.

agree on the sp misery but we have been to this level before in the last 6 months. the bounce will be off £200m mcap. i've said it many times but the market loves big round numbers to use a base when they're unsure on how to value a company. some good quarterly results will obviously help. and of course another dividend rns. mgt are so good at many things but they're ******* t@rdy on the little things that can still make a significant difference to the sp. keeping the market abreast of good news or the hidden value in the company certainly isn't their strong suit.

Whatever's happening people need to remember there is a sell and buy side. There will almost certainly be some TR1s at some point in the coming days / weeks. If the news is net +ve e.g. MA is now 15-20%, then expect an Ocado jump in the order of 25-50%. I don't see us getting below the £450m mcap range for now. The macro is as -ve as can be. All the bad trading news is in the market. And we have financial headroom for the next 3 years. So there's only one direction for the sp in the coming months / years, and that's up.

My head was in the same place as damofarl on the reasoning behind the loan. Your 'little bird' comment Tony has made me wonder though. I won't ask who it is, but how reliable / accurate is the source? And, any guidance on the size of transaction? If that's what they're eyeing up I only hope they have learnt their lesson on dilution and are looking to do a 50/50 max split wrt to dilution. The less dilution obviously the better. And the more oil obviously the better. Good that we have optionality with our own acreage. To be honest I'd prefer they sell something right now. Nth Sea assets would be the first to go in my books. SP is a mess right now :( AIMHO GLA