Member Info for G_G_G

Onwards and upwards for oil and our peers bottomsup. Not for us it would appear.

Jamesss, I think the fact our two largest shareholders were informed and they rejected the offer, then did a raise with mgt plus arranged a new loan devoid of covenants tells you that our mgt team are in the pocket of our two biggest holders. What Anders and Camelot have planned for us is something altogether different. Do they want to see Asos regain its double digit share price? Or have they positioned themselves for a cheap take-out? If we fail they can pick us up for peanuts. And if the turnaround does indeed occur they can pick us up for a few more peanuts. What's for certain is they don't want anyone else to have a piece of the pie, which is why mgt also blocked MA and his bid for a quick 10%.

Traders having a field day here. Direction of travel could blow in either direction over the coming weeks (between £3.30-4.20). I think most are pretty confident the next update will be strong. If it meets guidance then £5 will be the next stop. From there it's about market sentiment (inflation being key), and mgt guidance. If before year-end inflation drops below 5%, the next update is stronger than expected, and they continue to use language about generating significant cash in 2024 then we could claw our way back to the £7 range. Beyond this level I think will require another 1-2 solid updates that demonstrate significant cash generation they guided for 2024. This would however be the time for a t/o approach. I hope that mgt release such information as it was bordering criminal withholding the approach in December given our value at the time.

Fwiw I think we'll be back near £7 by year-end and I think a fair offer will be £10-12. People on here talking of £20 need to settle down. If our fortunes look to be headed in that direction I can assure you that Anders and Camelot will buy us out before-hand. And there's nothing we can do about it given they hold 40% ownership and most on here would take £10-12 in a heartbeat. Mgt simply need to hit their guidance and provide evidence of significant cash generation in 2024 is probably. Add to this inflation falling and I have no doubt an offer in the low double digits will land. Lots to play for here. AIMHO GLA

i wonder how many days, weeks, months before we get something from our ceo. unbelievable how he dropped an rns with so many unknowns and information gaps and thought it was fine to leave the market with the ****show he created. the interview he did was with our ir/pr agency, who no doubt after receiving emails and calls from countless pis asked him to show his p!ssweak face and say a few words. to think these people get to the role of ceo and think this is the way to behave with investor's hard earned money. he should have had numerous interviews lined up the second the rns dropped. he should have fronted up to his shareholders in a q&a. instead he put his head in the sand and left more unanswered questions for investors to sell into. i've just dropped another 500k because of the information gap he has left. i'll hold onto my last 1m shares as they're practically a write-off anyway. also telling how our ceo is happy to take a significant wage and not put his hand in his pocket when the ****show he has managed for the past couple of years takes a turn for the worse. he made a token purchase of shares. if he genuinely believes in the project he shouldn't just stake his career, he should also stake a significant proportion of the money we pay him. he should be buying every week until he has restored confidence in the market. instead he runs and hides. i have no problems with rejections that are (potentially) out of his control. how he managed everything afterwards is in his control. and all he has achieved in this time is proving himself to be a spineless failure of a ceo. gla (we're going to need it).

Indeed oil is roaring. And what is happening here...? Vmax, care to explain why our laughable mcap isn't increasing? While you're at it you can explain why we're under-valued against peers. Lookin forward to reading your genius explanation.

vmax, you're just saying what exactly? i've been pretty open about my thoughts on this company (both good and bad) over the years, including whether i'm buying or selling. i'm not going to sit here and sing mgt's praises when the share price has a massive disconnect from our average peer. if that's what you'd like to happen then go start some twitter investor group where you can mutually j@rk each other off with bull**** stories about how the sp is going to rocket soon. and what the hell is me being up on my investment have to do with the company being perennially under-valued versus peers? or the fact that mgt have done f@ck all to push our story over the years and our ceo would rather award himself free shares than use any of his outrageous £600k salary to right the disconnect. it's his job to ensure we're valued at least at peer average. and if we're not he has failed and failed me as an investor.

No idea what either of you are on about, nor do I care. The only reason I still hold here is because we're well under-valued (still) versus our peers. In theory this means we have more value growth than the average when commodity prices move in our favor and less to fall when they don't. This of course relies in one believing in a rational, efficient market where the disconnect will correct itself at some point. Sadly as the current poo is showing us, it's not so easy with i3e. Mgt for all their good work from an ops and acquisitions perspective, have f@cked up or missed tricks in other areas. This is why I'd take low 20's in a heartbeat and thank any would-be acquirer for the money. I simply don't trust mgt to get of their @sses and sell our story. Nor do I trust Majid to put his hand in his pocket until shareholder faith is restored and the disconnect corrected. I simply don't see mgt getting us back to the 20's. And if it does happen then our 50% increase in sp will be met by 100% in the wider O&G market. So the best outcome for me is a t/o. AIMHO GLA

Agree Vernet. I'm hoping our bottom feeding friends in JPM and PM are buying shares as they've heard there's something afoot. That would provide a silver lining to the sp being hammered i.e. our p!ss poor valuation entices a bid in the 20's.

vernet, we've been talking about the market waking up and valuing us against peer noi and fcf metrics for many years. fact is the market has never done this and mgt haven't gotten off their @sses to try and fix the peer disconnect. the sooner a hostile t/o bid lands here the better. mgt won't get us back to 20p. commodity prices could do it only if gas adds 50% and wti gets back to the 90's for a few months. the likelihood of one or both happening is quite slim. better a bid lands and puts us out of our misery. upside is that louis **** who i see is still here by my filter pop ups won;t be around as well.

Not sure I'd be happy with 20p for a hostile t/o, but I'd certainly be fine with 25p. This is the level I think they'd need to bid to win over some major IIs and most PIs. Thing is I don't see as much value here any more. I think we're worth 15p in the current market. And I think with a solid run up in O&G prices in the next few months we could even re-visit 18p. Beyond that level I just don't see it happening unless we get a bid. I'm happy to sit and hold for the next divi but do feel JPM would be looking for more than 25% value appreciation and 8% dividend on their outlay to hold here. I also think that gas prices are going to surprise to the downside post re-filling this year. This could be the last year we get a good bump for gas. Oil I'm more optimistic about, but longer term (+12 months) I don't see it above $70. I still hold just over 3m shares here but really wish I had moved to PTAL when first mentioning on here.

Fwiw I'm currently pivoting to retail and building a stake in Asos. I feel this category is bombed out like oil in the pandemic when I was snapping up i3e at 5p. The retail survivors when the turnaround kicks in I think have 2-3x in them over the next 12-18 months. Having said this there's still a bl@@dy big risk for online retail in general. Either way if we get a bid in the 20's I'll be very happy indeed. AIMHO GLA

So what's people's thoughts on JPM & PM potentially accumulating ahead of a bid...? Or am I just trying to make something good out of our current 13p sp malaise.

Also incredibly muted response to having 2 x funds continuing to up their stakes here. Goes to show how sick and tired PIs are of the drama here and why I think a bid of 25p would easily get carried if indeed these funds are effectively accumulating on another's behalf.

Fellas, let's just enjoy the fact we're now at 13p :) Again I can't believe I'm saying this.

Ordinarily I'd be looking to exit at +15p on the back of commodity price strengthening in the coming months, but there's something that makes me feel we could be 'in play'. Often funds get wind of deals in the making, either by the company themselves or the acquirer. They take a growing shareholding and agree to sell at a certain price. By taking on the extra shareholding it pushes up the price to ensure the bid will work for the wider market when it's announced. I'm wondering if this is happening now with PM & JPM. The reason I'm thinking this is because we're not only grossly under-valued, but I also don't see us getting much above 18p in the next 2 years based on my expectations for O&G prices in 24/25. If they continue adding up to 15p over the next month then I'll hold as I reckon a bid of 25p could be in the offing. They already make up over 20% of voting rights, so with another fund they could easily get the deal done as I think most PIs would jump at 25p if offered in a month's time. They can have my 3.1m shares to begin with. It could of course just be some bottom buying, but welcome thoughts on my gut feeling.

Good to see us back at 13p. Can't believe I've just written this.

I mentioned yesterday that inflation figures dropping below 8% should provide a catalyst for us to climb. Having said this, I don't believe we'll break £5 until we get another 2 x inflation prints showing a sizeable drop in inflation (min 1%), plus evidence of the company turnaround and guidance being met. We'll get 2 x inflation prints before the next set of results. All going well with the next set of results we'll be through £5 and riding a wave of +ve momentum. It's when we've turned this macro + company results corner that NED sales etc aren't going to do much damage. It's also when a TR1s showing a major shareholder building a stake is going to send the sp up by the double digits some on here like to bandy about. We're a little while away from this scenario (if it happens). But a TR1 or two in the next 8 weeks will almost certainly give this is a +ve move. I'm just not sure how long the spike will last until we see the next set of results. AIMHO GLA

Agree with your last post idg. As mentioned I wouldn't be surprised if the local authorities were trying to squeeze them and this was causing the delays. Basically holding everything up and asking for something else until the company relents and hands over some brown envelopes. Hopefully the central government can recognize this and just get on with what will be a ground-breaking project (literally) for the national and local economies. If they green light this project and its a success then it opens a huge wider area for OCP and others to join and develop. Either way it sounds as though it will be a couple of weeks to a couple of months before we find out if the permit is approved. AIMHO GLA

well at least gc has fronted up. we may well be a penny higher if he had the guts and common sense to address the market when the local authority refusal occurred. the interview as not as bad as what i was expecting though. he's an incredibly uninspiring ceo, but the main thing is he has outlined a timeline (of sorts) and the submission has now hit the highest levels in the country. he has also insinuated the approval was always going to taker place at a national level and the f@cked up process we've had to endure is what they had to abide by. i'm wondering whether the local authorities were trying a shake-down and because we didn't (cannot) play ball they've eventually given up. often it's the local authorities in these second world countries that are the worst at having their hands in the cookie jar.

it's still a binary play, but he did appear confident (in his own way) of an approval. the issue is whether a decision arrives before or after the summer break, so in the next 2-8 weeks. we might get a bit of firming in the sp over the coming days and weeks. i can't see it dropping much further given our mcap is now £20m. equally i'm not sure we'll get above 4p without something concrete. i think the company at the very least should notify / update the market on when the next national committee meeting is happening and confirm we are on the agenda for a decision. i'm still confident so will continue to hold here. anyone investing now is basically taking a bet on the permit approval with a 3-5x investment return in the next 8 weeks. sort of like betting on a major drill result for an o&g play but perhaps with a better chance of success imo.

main thing is gc fronted up and filled in some blanks. something he should have been done the day that ****ty rns dropped. very poor mgt decision to stay quiet. gla

our gutless mgt team still hiding away i see. i wonder how long it will take for them to acknowledge their shareholders. 1 month, 2 months, 3 months...? they drop one of the biggest piles of **** on the market almost 2 weeks ago and then go silent. lots of shareholder questions with absolutely no-one fronting up with some answers. tragic what has happened here.

Inflation figures tomorrow. If we get a print under 8% then expect a solid sp jump again. Interest rates will still go up by half a point but it will herald the start of IR tapering. If inflation continues to cool and we're back in the 6's at the next trading update then Asos will almost certainly be above £5. Reckon this could be the start of our last run out of the 3's. GLA

HBR, SQZ, PTAL, BP, Shell all do massive buy-backs. Not sure how much they have done for the sp....