Member Info for G_G_G

Even better Nic is MA adds when the sp is driven down by the shorters to whom he has lent his shares. He def can't lose.

Tony, you have a very selective memory on Doc Jones and his impact here plus your own promotion of his site. The very fact he pushed EMO to unbelievable highs for what they had at the time speaks to how much he can influence the price of a small cap like ours. I believe we were worth around £60-70m at the time of his arrival and he added more than 50% at the time. I also recall that you invested in EMO (and made money) and directed me toward checking it out. You of all people should appreciate his influence over PIs. Nothing against the man. He's done very well from what I can tell. But he undoubtedly did more to kick start our re-valuation than the bod. Your ego is getting in the way of the facts.

As for emailing the company, I can say that I've raised their poor shareholder comms with them on many occasions over the years. Sometimes it has been the only negative in an email that has been full of praise for other decisions. They're a tight outfit on production, and acquisitions. But they're bl@@dy useless at promoting the company and shareholder comms. And I'd say that anyone who argues against those statements is either a ramper, or has rose tinted glasses so thick they can't see a thing. Now is that me being a de-ramper or negative...? I'd say it makes me a realist. AIMHO GLA

I'm counting on private to pony up Vernet. It's one of the reasons I still hold here. Mgt have done such a good job of destroying shareholder confidence, and so very little to build it, that it's bound to attract a buyer.

Tony, you ever contemplated giving the ramping a rest? We're 13.5p last time I checked.

And what exactly is your view of why we're down here? Please give us al some detail rather than talking b@llocks about 'deep value'.

As for Doc Jones, anyone who was invested at this point in time knows he was the catalyst. Even you were singing his praises and peddling him as some kind of investment sage. As for mgt buying at the bottom of the cycle, of course they did. And they did a great job on that note. Then we spent an age being under-valued until Doc Jones came along and started pumping the company to his many followers. You seem to forget how you were fanboying him for so long. You were even promoting his other investments so you of all people should appreciate how he mobilised his following.

As for the dividend, not sure what your point is. They just cut it in half plus they stopped the monthly payment. And since then our sp dropped to less than 11p at one point and has recovered to an almighty 13.5p even with poo comfortably sitting above $80. So I'd argue there's more evidence that it did support the sp. And if it was still being paid monthly at a higher level than now I'm quite confident the sp would be higher than now.

As for not being in a position to criticize mgt, tell me in your opinion who is in a position to criticize them? Anyone? For anything? As I said, you're starting to sound like a mindless ramper.

Tony, I don't think I could do a better job at driving the sp lower versus their non-existent PR. People also seem to forget the first re-rate of this stock was on the back of Doc Jones. A single investment blogger in Canada. The hidden value was there for some time, it was only when he got the word out amongst his acolytes that our sp jumped. The following sp run coincided with commodity prices rises. And no matter how far we climbed we were still behind the average Canadian peer on the most important financial metrics.

Vernet, I'm sure I read somewhere the recent Athabasca transaction was on a NOI multiple far higher than the recent average. Someone else may be able to fill in the details. Until then I don't think we can do a straight read across. Having said that even if we sold for 5x NOI it would still give us a circa 31p valuation. Just goes to show how much of a value disconnect exists here and why I continue to be critical of mgt for having done f'all to fill the gap. As always I live in hope of a hostile bid to fix what mgt have been unable and unwilling to do themselves. GLA

Vernet, I wouldn't say the low ball t/o window has closed at all. I'd say it's more open now than ever. Commodity prices have strengthened considerably and our sp is doing nothing. It only reinforces to shareholders that mgt are incapable of fixing the valuation gap, even when the wind is behind them. If a bid of 25p were to land I think most on here would be ready to accept as looks to be the only way of getting back to that level without poo breaking $100. And even then I have my doubts. That's how little the market trust mgt. Every day we stay at these levels is more evidence of why we would be a cheap t/o option. AIMHO GLA

When are we expecting the next update? Kind of stupid question in some ways as they're always late. Perhaps better worded as when can one reasonably expect to see an update? Would be a good opportunity for mgt to provide revised guidance given commodity prices. Either way they need to do something. The sp is a joke, and mgt are doing nothing to try and fix the valuation gap. It's the reason why I think we need a bid. Someone can come in and take this for peanuts. And the new owner can save £600k just by getting rid of Majid. GLA

Ftse 250 needs an mcap closer to £1bn. So we'd need to double our sp to get back into it and stay there.

Not only that, but this company when it has to report can't be relied on to do so in a timely manner.

Let's hope our prior resistance level (£500m mcap) turns out to be as strong as a support level. SP in no man's land at the moment.

Just catching up on previous posts. Well said Engineer! Some seriously silly numbers being thrown about on this board. The company hasn't guided anywhere near 7% margin and 3-4% is a realistic long-term target to be setting. I do think Asos will likely sit in the 15-20x multiple valuation in time, given it does have the potential to grow once it rights the ship and makes meaningful reductions in debt. They have cut back on a core growth driver - marketing - and this investment will return once they are standing on solid ground. Margin and profitability need to be be restored first, followed by setting realistic revenue growth targets backed by marketing investment. I think need another year of profitability targets being met or exceeded before we get a double digit valuation. For now, I think circa £5 is a realistic value until the next set of results. But in the absence of a t/o offer there's no way this reaches £10 under its own steam in the next 6 months. There's too much debt. And there's much history that needs to be re-written. AIMHO GLA

Newboy, click on the rns link above. I'd also read news articles on Asos to get an idea of sentiment. And I'd read articles on the retail category to see how competitors have been performing the last quarter. As for your average, I'd say anything in the 300's is very good. On the off chance the next update plus outlook is poor you should have enough time to dump the lot in the 400's without losing money. I'd be surprised if the next update is poor given retail figures released recently and the company reaffirming guidance only 6 weeks ago. Providing inflation continues to drop over the coming months the macro outlook should be supportive as well. I'm expecting the sp to be above £5 when the update lands. There's also the possibility of t/o rumors that will put 50% on the sp within a couple of days. All of this is what I have surmised from the above information sources but dyor. Nice to see some blue today. GLA

Yep there's a solid run of updates that we know will be +ve in the coming 8 weeks. If we add a new ceo to the mix I think we'll re-visit 13p. To think this company has some great drilling results (we know they will be), great commercial results (we know they will be), net debt neutral (we know we will be), and potentially a new ceo. By year end if gold stays above $1900 I think we'll be back above 15p. It's hard to see how we won't be given the amount of drilling being done, plus cash being thrown off. This has t/o written all over it for a large African producer. I'm happy for us to stay down here a little while longer as I'm hoping to build my stake further. Absolutely crazy valuation at the moment. AIMHO GLA

MA has certainly got some voting power on the future of Asos. How good this is for us mere mortals, who knows. One thing I'm quite confident about is the sp here has a decent way to run before the next set of results. It's really about sitting tight for another 3 months now. Next significant target £5.

I think some people on here completely miss how things work in the City. Firstly the offer wasn't rejected because it was piffle. It was rejected because they approached the two largest shareholders who said no. These holders then bankrolled a capital raise at less than 40% of the t/o offer, plus arranged a high interest paying debt facility. This isn't my opinion, it happened. My opinion is the wider market would have taken an offer of £10-12 at the time. And £30 is a pipe dream.

As for sales, it's not £4bn and unlikely to get there without a significant increase in marketing spend. We're seeing double digit declines in sales revenue and the trajectory is sending us to £3bn, not £4bn. There's a big difference.

I hold 65k shares here so not p!ssing on my own investment. Just not getting lost in my dreams. Keep in mind that if the Turks / Alibaba or someone other than our major shareholders make a bid for the same amount in the next 6 months these major holders make an extra 20% on their holdings. MA will also make a quickfire £50-75m and no doubt get a number of concessions for his brands. Simply, the major holders cannot lose whichever way the wind blows.

Fwiw I think we'll be somewhere between £5-5.50 before the next results providing there's no other major director sales or macro meltdown. If we get a few major holders upping their stake then we could get to £6. Beyond £6 requires guidance not only being met, but exceeded. If this occurs and there's a +ve outlook communicated to the market then we could reach the next major level of £7. I don't see us getting beyond £7 without good macro (couple of % drop in inflation over 3 months), plus another set of strong results, and/or a t/o offer.

Slow and steady here. I think with a strong close above 420p then we're primed to attack 450p next week. Penny by penny we're climbing to the £5 I think we'll be at before the next set of results. From there it will simply come down to the numbers. If good and the outlook is +ve then we'll move to £6. Beyond this level I think will require another set of strong results or a t/o offer. I personally don't think Asos will still be listed this time next year if the turnaround story has been proven. It will just be a matter of when a would be predator makes their move. My bet is a bid of circa £12 in 6-12 months providing we get two more solid sets of results under our belt. Strong weekly close above £500m mcap today will confirm to me the pre-results re-rate is in play. AIMHO GLA

POO +$82, Gas up. i3e sub 13.5p. Makes you wonder what commodity price levels will be required to move our f@t ass.

As for the tweet from i3e, sorry I don't agree that's good PR. Good PR is getting your story amongst a lot of potential new investors. It's all about reach. The only people who follow i3e are shareholders and perhaps a few industry insiders. Majid needs to get out there and start doing interviews. He could start by doing one here and paying for the advertising space so it sits all over lse pages.

Tony on the Longboat performance options, that same idea of having them pegged to the share price is something I floated years ago. Instead they gave themselves easy money on the back of production targets they knew were a cakewalk. I'd like them to set their performance targets at 25p. This might narrow Majid's focus to what his shareholders care about the most - the sp.

Tony, good to see you back. Do you have any idea how much we're producing from these regions versus the recent acquisition being quoted? We no doubt have valuable land holdings, but they also require significant investment to develop. And anything that comes with a reasonable level of production will obviously be valued higher. So would be good to understand the production comparison if we're to estimate any read across in valuation.

Oh, and our house broker who is paid to promote our company is peddling us at what fair value...? As for the recent Athabasca divestment, all I can say is they sold those assets at far higher multiples than any of the other deals done in the past 12 months. So not the best read on what we're worth. I'd love us to be sold for 45p, hell why not go for 65, 85, 100p!!! All these numbers matter little because what we're worth in a t/o is what our major shareholders are willing to accept. And that will be far lower than 45p.

Sorry fellas been at the gym. Vmax, wtf are you on about? Firstly, the only dummy chucking I think that's happening on this board appears to your series of little tantrums. Answer to your petty little outburst below:

'So in your opinion , assets , production , infrastructure , price of oil and gas , have nothing to do with valuation?'

- Obviously all those things have an impact on valuation. But the most important are the price of oil and gas, cost per barrel to produce, and debt profile (now more than ever). This is the basis of your financials and the basis what most categories and companies are valued by. When the world thought O&G was dead and prices cratered for the best part of a year it made no difference how many barrels you had in the ground or were producing. And during this period you might recall it was when we managed to pick up all our distressed assets. One of those things that I've been very +ve about mgt having achieved. It's after all why I invested so much at that point in time. As for how we're valued now, well it looks to me we're at 13-14p. Do I think that's fair? No I don't, and I've said as much. But I look firstly at NOI and fcf when I decide what we should be valued at, and they recently halved. Plus we no longer have a tax pool. And our divi recently halved. Finally, we've been perennially under-valued because the mgt team have surprised the market in a bad way on multiple occasions, and done little to PR the good things they have achieved (of which there are many). So it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that we're struggling to break 14p. And it's during periods like this - when a company is at a distressed valuation - that it can be snapped up for pennies on the pound. Just like we did for our assets. We are valued at what the market is willing to pay. And in a t/o it's what the majority of shareholders are willing to accept. I think the majority of shareholders will accept 25p. And I think 45p is absolute f@cking nonsense that you've dreamed up while jerking into your i3e sp@nkrag.

As for everything else you've mentioned in your little rants, well it reads like pure gibberish, just like your 45p valuation.